Camden Property Trust (CPT):
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbqPwZaozLI/AAAAAAAAA08/Kt4R4LTZTts/s400/0126-cpt.jpg
CKH:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbqPwpaozMI/AAAAAAAAA1E/bP7rwYFsEpE/s400/0126-ckh.jpg
It's been a pretty good week. I'm sure those who follow NutriSystem, mentioned here several times as a bearish idea, enjoyed the drop today.
Thousands of people stop by each day to read this blog, and I want you to know I appreciate it. Doing this blog helps me think more clearly about the markets, and it's fun for me to share my views. Do keep swinging by!
at 1/26/2007 9 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $indu, $oex, $spx, $tran, ckh, cpt etr, fcx, msft
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Thursday, January 25, 2007Engulfed
What is with this crazy market? Don't get me wrong; a triple-digit down day on the Dow is terrific. But this market is heading for the nut house.
Over the past trading week, there have been two instances of big bearish engulfing patterns on the $NDX. Today's was a whopper. Having a superstar like EBAY up in the double digits at the open and yet have a wipe-out like this is really encouraging.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-dpaozHI/AAAAAAAAAzw/Y6HIxVFoJVA/s400/0125-%24ndx.jpg
The $SPX bounced off that resistance line beautifully. The market still has no direction, though. It's neither bullish nor bearish. Just schizo.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-aZaozGI/AAAAAAAAAzo/xeiCwAr42xI/s400/0125-%24spx.jpg
The rest are straight-up short ideas. AMX:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-XZaozFI/AAAAAAAAAzg/l9EK2tao68s/s400/0125-amx.jpg
AutoZone (AZO), still in the stratosphere:
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AutoZone (AZO), still in the stratosphere:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-UZaozEI/AAAAAAAAAzY/xP9kdJraqkg/s400/0125-azo.jpg
Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL), approaching resistance:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-Q5aozDI/AAAAAAAAAzQ/Y2jDfySeHOQ/s400/0125-ccl.jpg
Black and Decker (BDK):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-MZaozCI/AAAAAAAAAzI/hPlCVR69kWw/s400/0125-bdk.jpg
Goldman Sachs (GS), finally getting a reversal:
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Goldman Sachs (GS), finally getting a reversal:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-HJaozBI/AAAAAAAAAzA/NExQRQbs09Q/s400/0125-gs.jpg
LLL:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk-DJaozAI/AAAAAAAAAy4/KwRupb2PW84/s400/0125-lll.jpg
NutriSystem (NTRI), with its cup and handle pattern failing:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk99paoy_I/AAAAAAAAAyw/AU8yKLTwulo/s400/0125-ntri.jpg
RTI:
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http://bbs.macd.cn/attachments.php?aid=1689603&noupdate=yes&3
醉僧试剑
RTI:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk945aoy-I/AAAAAAAAAyo/UQxF0fNB7rw/s400/0125-rti.jpg
Sears Holding (SHLD), also weakening:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbk905aoy9I/AAAAAAAAAyg/3Y9aJf06OO4/s400/0125-shld.jpg
Now for your occasional clip of the day! The world's worst weatherman. Brace yourselves.
at 1/25/2007 6 insightful comments
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Labels: $ndx, $spx, amx, azo, bdk, ccl, gs, lll, ntri, rti, shld
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-5 08:09 编辑 ]
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Wednesday, January 24, 2007It is a Most Elusive Fish...
The markets were very strong today. At least I am not putting my foot in my mouth. I've made it very clear lately that until there's a clear "rupture", we're still in bull-land. Earnings season isn't doing a hell of a lot so far for our cause. It reminds me of a favorite movie clip of mine......
The Dow Jones 30, shown below, hit another lifetime high today. I wouldn't be shocked if we pushed all the way toward 13,000 in the coming weeks. Earnings from EBAY this evening have the stock up over 10%.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbfv5paoy8I/AAAAAAAAAx4/118-wEWaYJ4/s400/0124-%24indu.jpg
The S&P 500, while not at a lifetime high (its high in early 2000 stands unbeaten) is nonetheless at the very highest point of a massive ascending wedge. Looking at the charts tonight, it's obvious that the strength is widespread and devastating to the bears. (Goldman Sachs just being one of countless examples).
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbfv2paoy7I/AAAAAAAAAxw/4FSjxCWL37s/s400/0124-%24spx.jpg
The only bearish holdout is the beleaguered Dow Transports. Of course, I'm sure the bulls will say Dow Theory is sad and outmoded and should be ignored.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbfvzJaoy6I/AAAAAAAAAxo/5h99dX672os/s400/0124-%24tran.jpg
If there are any living bears still out there, I like the looks of Adobe (ADBE).
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If there are any living bears still out there, I like the looks of Adobe (ADBE).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbfvu5aoy5I/AAAAAAAAAxg/do_pVqBXueI/s400/0124-adbe.jpg
...as well as Black and Decker (BDK).
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbfvnpaoy4I/AAAAAAAAAxY/gg0bawWj_IA/s400/0124-bdk.jpg
For a bullish play, CRR looks like it is beginning to turn northward after a long slide.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbfuo5aoy3I/AAAAAAAAAxQ/TUb5b3sxAmU/s400/0124-crr.jpg
Ryland (RYL) has recovered back to its neckline, although I use that term somewhat loosely since this isn't much of a head and shoulders pattern. All the same, with this much recovery under its belt, it makes going short the stock much less risky.
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Ryland (RYL) has recovered back to its neckline, although I use that term somewhat loosely since this isn't much of a head and shoulders pattern. All the same, with this much recovery under its belt, it makes going short the stock much less risky.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbfujZaoy2I/AAAAAAAAAxI/ZtQgciWcDJU/s400/0124-ryl.jpg
Much the same logic holds true for Sierra Health (SIE).
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rbfudpaoy1I/AAAAAAAAAxA/iLAkMrAIXdY/s400/0124-sie.jpg
Lastly, I will mention one short suggested here, Textron (TXT), seems to be getting slammed . Nice to have one bright spot to anticipate for the morning!
at 1/24/2007 8 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $spx, $tran, adbe, bdk, crr, new high, ryl, sie
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Tuesday, January 23, 2007Airport Quickie
This is going to be one of those "at the airport" quickie posts.
Today the market recovered partly from yesterday's sell-off. All eyes are on earnings, naturally. We are, for the zillionth time, in a middleground where it's not clear if the market's going to push higher or lower. Just look at this graph of the Russell 2000 from the past 60 days on a minute by minute basis. Just no clear direction whatever!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbaFcZaoyzI/AAAAAAAAAwc/kh7ZwAYXcjY/s400/0123-%24rut.jpg
ANDE, a long suggestion posted earlier in this space, is continuing to perform well. Breaking above the horizontal line would obviously be a good thing for owners of this stock.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbaFb5aoywI/AAAAAAAAAwE/3LeH2JjmNKk/s400/0123-ande.jpg
Bank of America (BAC), on which I own puts, announced great earnings today and fell. Good.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbaFcZaoyyI/AAAAAAAAAwU/P-8u5JGMKRY/s400/0123-bac.jpg
Lastly, Health.net (HNT), although not a slam-dunk pattern, seems bearish enough to mention.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbaF2Jaoy0I/AAAAAAAAAwk/ujFOiMxZGuw/s400/0123-hnt.jpg
For those of you who enjoyed BillyWitchDoctor.com yesterday, I'm glad. For those who had no idea what it was about, I congratulate you on your sanity.
at 1/23/2007 5 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, ande, bac, hnt
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Monday, January 22, 2007Ultra Chicken
I've been wrong enough to know that I'm not going to start cheering on a bear market. The market was down today. I'm glad. Maybe it'll be down a lot more this week. Which will make me happier still. But until we have a no-doubt-about-it rupture in the uptrend, I'm keeping my furry mouth shut.
The $VIX may have formed a "V" bottom with recent activity, which would obviously be good for both put holders (me) and bears (me again).
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVe6paoyvI/AAAAAAAAAvU/Xb8wKYGfU_0/s400/0122-%24vix.jpg
I've mentioned AMLN a bunch recently, and it continues to behave like a good little stock (on the short side).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVe2ZaoyuI/AAAAAAAAAvM/pXnvF_iPWe4/s400/0122-amln.jpg
I take pride in being such a pure technician that I know only the ticker symbol - - I don't know the company's name, and I certainly don't know what it does. The symbol is AXR. I shorted it Friday. And today it lost double-digits of points. Nice.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RbVeypaoytI/AAAAAAAAAvE/qke-B2yjArs/s400/0122-axr.jpg
I got burned a couple of weeks back buying puts on superstock AutoZone (AZO). I'm ready for more punishment.
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