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Friday, December 15, 2006Burying the Week
This was one of those days that the market went up but my all-short portfolio actually went up too. I guess I can make a good decision now and then.
I tossed out a 'Second Life' reference a couple of times, but hardly anyone said anything. Maybe I'll just give it a miss. Here's my avatar in case you happen to see me. No surprise, eh?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYMW8Kg19SI/AAAAAAAAANw/cRM-cC4Xqjg/s400/1215-%24bear.jpg
The market exploded higher earlier in the day, but a lot of those gains melted off. The market was still up (in most cases), but most indices are sporting a nice shooting star.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYMVf6g19RI/AAAAAAAAANo/z71FYf8-oG0/s400/1215-%24spx.jpg
I've been short gold for a couple of weeks, and that seems to be heading in the right direction finally (as viewed via the $XAU).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYMVZKg19QI/AAAAAAAAANg/BPiSwritlhw/s400/1215-%24xau.jpg
I've taken a few stabs at Black & Decker (BDK). Finally it took a tumble! Just look at the volume today, too.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYMVVqg19PI/AAAAAAAAANY/KTfHBBirH_E/s400/1215-bdk.jpg
I remain long puts on Capital One. It's only inching down slowly, but I still really like this pattern.
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I remain long puts on Capital One. It's only inching down slowly, but I still really like this pattern.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYMVSKg19OI/AAAAAAAAANQ/K2VgIPrhEpw/s400/1215-cof.jpg
I entered a new position on CSX today (buying puts).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYMVOqg19NI/AAAAAAAAANI/rUxHscmAywQ/s400/1215-csx.jpg
GOOG is a bit of a fascination of mine. It's getting a little weaker every day. They will be reporting earnings in January. Obviously a disappointment there (as happened a year before) is the only thing that could really take the wind out of this stock's sails.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYMVLKg19MI/AAAAAAAAANA/Cr_Ia0M8kd4/s400/1215-goog.jpg
I'm also still short Goldman (GS), my favorite investment bank pick
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I'm also still short Goldman (GS), my favorite investment bank pick now.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYMVFqg19LI/AAAAAAAAAM4/SoTiAjyf7QA/s400/1215-gs.jpg
HYDL is starting to behave well to the downside.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYMVBqg19KI/AAAAAAAAAMw/1lZP727EMk0/s400/1215-hydl.jpg
RIMM gives quarterly guidance next week on the 21st. The past couple of days gave RIMM some upside, but today's shooting star pattern gives me some comfort. It seems the market is saying, "oh, no you don't" to any sustained strength here.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYMU5Kg19JI/AAAAAAAAAMo/VUzS_brgXLE/s400/1215-rimm.jpg
I see a lot of quitters in the comments section. That's totally your decision, of course. Just try not to be rude on your way out the door. You may be back!
at 12/15/2006 22 insightful comments
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Labels: $spx, $xau, bdk, cof, csx, goog, gs, hydl, rimm
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凌空搏斗
Thursday, December 14, 2006The Rich Get Richer.......
Well, the bull's commanding grasp of the market is not loosening. The bears have been - as the kids say - "pwned!" It's painful. It's relentless. But it's real.
One reader has sent me a "domed house" graph of the market (a couple of times), predicting a reversal in the Feb/Mar timeframe. Hey, that prediction is as good as any other. Here it is.......
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHkf6g19II/AAAAAAAAAMg/YadKdDoj_s8/s400/1214-%24domedhouse.jpg
I'm just waiting for the insane press and books of the late 90s to return to us.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHkb6g19HI/AAAAAAAAAMY/jCy7rhioFm4/s400/1214-%24dow10000.jpg
The MidCap 400 is one of the few indices that hasn't blown into full breakout mode, but it's close. Just a whisker's breadth away.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHkYqg19GI/AAAAAAAAAMQ/YcZI4_qku98/s400/1214-%24mid.jpg
The NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) is actually relatively weak, in spite of a strong showing today.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHkUag19FI/AAAAAAAAAMI/4IRXxNb4zJA/s400/1214-%24ndx.jpg
Here's a much longer view at the market, this via the S&P 100 ($OEX). You can see where I've drawn the Fib retracements. Today was a blowout bullish day. It is visible even from this "height."
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHkQ6g19EI/AAAAAAAAAMA/fwYr1Brd8Ro/s400/1214-%24oex.jpg
And here's the broader S&P 500. The bulls have been totally in control for five solid months now. You can just about lay a ruler down from mid-July to mid-December and see the market zoom straight up. Ugh.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-6 07:49 编辑 ]
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And here's the broader S&P 500. The bulls have been totally in control for five solid months now. You can just about lay a ruler down from mid-July to mid-December and see the market zoom straight up. Ugh.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHkLag19DI/AAAAAAAAAL4/SXzsumYCefQ/s400/1214-%24spx.jpg
The $VIX, which was in single digit territory a couple of weeks back, has returned to that astonishingly low level. The $VIX had risen for a bit, given us poor beleaguered bears some hope, but it's come full circle. Is it theoretically possible to below into negative numbers? I suppose not.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHkFag19CI/AAAAAAAAALw/UzeQ13ONiRo/s400/1214-%24vix.jpg
Here's a closer look at the $VIX.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHj5Kg19BI/AAAAAAAAALo/md3AbTkKCRI/s400/1214-%24vixcloseup.jpg
Finally, the $XMI was the earliest index I made a bullish call on (begrudgingly), and its super clean pattern continues. A burst up from a saucer, plain as day.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHj0qg19AI/AAAAAAAAALg/wQocSnzw5mk/s400/1214-%24xmi.jpg
This is probably the first time I'm pointing out more "Buys" than "Shorts", but - - if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. I've got six ideas for you bulls out there. AKAM has been profoundly strong and is in new high territory:
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This is probably the first time I'm pointing out more "Buys" than "Shorts", but - - if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. I've got six ideas for you bulls out there. AKAM has been profoundly strong and is in new high territory:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHiwqg18-I/AAAAAAAAALQ/5oE4w4lHWGg/s400/1214-buyakam.jpg
BZH, mentioned many times already, is worth a new look:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHipKg189I/AAAAAAAAALI/pmSdRyKRY1A/s400/1214-buybzh.jpg
CRVL has been superpowered by surging volume.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHilKg188I/AAAAAAAAALA/5SU8g2vqPOU/s400/1214-buycrvl.jpg
PWAV seems to be turning the corner as well, after a long fall:
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PWAV seems to be turning the corner as well, after a long fall:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHigKg187I/AAAAAAAAAK4/7-YEp4waIxM/s400/1214-buypwav.jpg
Here's PXP:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHiaag186I/AAAAAAAAAKw/VHWCtR7kD-w/s400/1214-buypxp.jpg
And, finally, Redback (RBAK), mentioned many times. The volume is terrific, and this is up about 35% from when I first pointed it out.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHiVKg185I/AAAAAAAAAKo/WCwCLEWj3sg/s400/1214-buyrbak.jpg
Now, for those insane enough to be bears (like me) until their dying breath, a few short charts. CTX:
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Now, for those insane enough to be bears (like me) until their dying breath, a few short charts. CTX:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHiP6g184I/AAAAAAAAAKg/Et5W-RsAgX4/s400/1214-ctx.jpg
John Deere (DE):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHhcKg183I/AAAAAAAAAKY/3cDPnNniDJs/s400/1214-de.jpg
Lehman Brothers (LEH) which, in spite of blowout earnings, actually fell on this +100 point (on the Dow) day.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHhXqg182I/AAAAAAAAAKQ/8Bv00RCI5hM/s400/1214-leh.jpg
MEE, an energy short:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYHhLag181I/AAAAAAAAAKI/PoBOppYrbY0/s400/1214-mee.jpg
I sure must have been a lot more fun to read in the summer when I was full of P&V. At this point, I'm just showing up, hat (and charts) in hand. Grumble. Being a bear really sucks.
at 12/14/2006 26 insightful comments
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Labels: new highs
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Wednesday, December 13, 2006The Sleeping Man Pattern
Looking at the past five or so days on the markets, this one in particular the S&P 500, I can see what we have here is a classic Sleeping Man Pattern.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYB1Cqg180I/AAAAAAAAAJ8/SJHMSNYeHlQ/s400/1213-sleepingman.jpg
Honestly, people. Today's action isn't worth my commentary. I hope something happens soon (preferably down), because this market is boring me to tears.
Sorry to trouble you that you checked in today. Doing a good post takes time, and I have nothing new to say.
at 12/13/2006 34 insightful comments
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Tuesday, December 12, 2006The Stalemate Continues.........
Twelve stinking points. That's all that got lopped off the Dow after the Fed announced no change in rates (as everyone expected) and that inflation was indeed still a concern.
The intraday chart below shows what happened. After a nice pre-announcement drop, people sort of clung to their chests until the announcement, at which time the market did its usually insane up-and-down which-way-is-up madness. Most of the day's earliest losses were wiped clean.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8oXhtai7I/AAAAAAAAAIw/5dQ7vv8PBn0/s400/1212-%24induintraday.jpg
I took a snapshot of $MSH earlier in the day since I thought it was worth considering as a short. Keep it on your radar screen.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RX8oThtai6I/AAAAAAAAAIo/vlMkhZ13lOg/s400/1212-%24msh.jpg
The $OEX is sporting a big ol' hanging man for today. These don't happen that often. Just try to find another one that's even close on this chart. These usually suggest tops. Of course, we're in a market where bad news is good news and good news is great news, right? So - - the hanging man will probably muscle the noose off his neck, jump to the gallows, and start twirling around with an exciting Up With People dance.
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