一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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Friday, December 01, 2006A Bad End to a Great Day
Until about 2:45 EST today, this was looking like a fantastic, bears-are-back-in-charge kind of day. The Dow was down about 130. Every attempt to push the market higher was met with bears pushing it past the prior lows of the day. The direction of the market was everything we've been waiting for.

Unfortunately, the bulls have staggering firepower and confidence, and they wiped out all but 28 points of the Dow's lose in a little over an hour, tacking on 100 points to the Dow from its lows of the day. Very discouraging and disappointing. But let's at least take solace in the fact that the market was down for both the day and the week. Down is down, people. Let's not get too self-pitying.

Here you can see the areas I've highlighted, indicating the places where the bulls have slashed back at the bears by bidding up stocks.


I do get a sense, though, that the bulls' merciless grip on the market is starting to slip. There was no more succession of daily lifetime highs. For the moment, at least, the atmosphere in the market seems to have changed for the better. But one thing is certain: if we don't break below 1,375 on the S&P soon, this brief sense of bearish confidence is going to fade. We must break this level, period.


I've got just a handful of short suggestions today. GOOG is one I'm hesitant to put forward, but I feel compelled to do so. I don't have a strong technical reason for doing so (except insofar as the recent breakout really isn't going anywhere). I rely more on the notion that whatever everyone knows is not worth knowing. And what everyone knows is that GOOG is the king of the world, it can do no wrong, it's a cash machine, and it has stomped everyone else out of existence. Well, where do you go from there? When anything is priced for perfection, it seems an ideal time to fade the market.


A less dramatic suggestion is HES, which I think has recovered about as far as it's going to go.

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A less dramatic suggestion is HES, which I think has recovered about as far as it's going to go.


Sears Holding (SHLD) looks like its recent bullish breakout doesn't have legs either.


Lastly, US Steel (X) seems to have fully run its course. The beauty of all four of these suggestion is that the stop-loss levels are not only obvious but not that far away, so the risk is quite manageable.


I appreciate your taking the time to check in with me. Have a good weekend.
at 12/01/2006 34 insightful comments
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Labels: $spx, goog, hes, shld

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Thursday, November 30, 2006Isn't It Epic?
What a day! The bulls and bears are in an epic battle. First the market went up. Then it lost its footing and fell. Then it was down nearly 60 points. Then it erased all those gains and pushed up nearly 50 points. Then it fell yet again for the Dow to have a loss for the day! It's just getting shoved all over the place!

The market definitely "feels" different. I think this Monday's tumble has freaked the bulls out a bit. Our bullish friends aren't quite as cocksure as they were before. It's a nauseating battle for control.

The candlestick graph of the S&P 500 shows a big honkin' spinning top for the day, which is the very essence of the uncertainty going on. Neither side is in control. Know this: if we take out the lows from Monday, the bears are going to have the upper paw.


The purported reason for any recent weakness has been the U.S. dollar, which has tumbled again lately (take a look at the highlighted area below). I've drawn a horizontal line indicating the support level which, if taken out, will really start to freak people out.


Just to drive the point home, the S&P 500 has played the "I'm falling! No, I'm moving to new highs!" game before. Take a look at the areas I've highlighted below which shows quick tumbles recently. We saw what happened last night. Let us pray to the ursine gods above to have mercy on us sinners.


Like I said above, the market feels different. I think the chart below shows why. The unrelenting, horrible uptrend we've been burdened with was snapped Monday. As the lines indicate, this could be the day where the uptrend ended and the downtrend began.

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Like I said above, the market feels different. I think the chart below shows why. The unrelenting, horrible uptrend we've been burdened with was snapped Monday. As the lines indicate, this could be the day where the uptrend ended and the downtrend began.


A closer look just shows how fierce the battle is being waged. These is a minute bar graph. Just look how wild these swings are!


A daily graph of the Russell 2000 ($RUT) makes me think it would take a supercharged rally to elevate the market into new high territory again. The psychological damage done by Monday was pretty bad on the bulls.


One short that's been getting bludgeoned has been gold. In my defense, I never said this was a slam-dunk pattern. It was on the fence. But recent strength has been staggering. This position is close to getting shuttered.

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One short that's been getting bludgeoned has been gold. In my defense, I never said this was a slam-dunk pattern. It was on the fence. But recent strength has been staggering. This position is close to getting shuttered.


Just one stock today - one I've shown before - Lehman Brothers (LEH). This continues to be weak. Nothing sensational. No collapse. Just a nice, steady weakening.


at 11/30/2006 28 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $rut, $spx, leh, spinning top

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Wednesday, November 29, 2006Recovery Holding Firm
Today's entry is going to be on the short side, since I've spent most of the day sitting in either airports or on airplanes.

As you well know, the market made an earnest move higher today. Around the middle of the day, it looked like the recovery was softening (the Dow went from up over 90 to up about 45 or so). But then the bulls got their feet back underneath them and pushed it to close near the high of the day. Disappointing. A failed recovery is exactly what we bears need right now, and we didn't get it.

Here's a daily graph of the Russell 2000. The market could easily push into new highs (yet again) in the next day or two. That would make memories of Monday's fall completely vanish.


Here's a closer view of the NASDAQ 100, and you can see here how helpful Fibonacci retracements can be, even on an intraday basis. I've drawn the Fib from the recent high to the low on Monday. You can see today we pushed up to a 50% retracement, fell back down to the 23.6% level (pretty much right on the nose) and then back up to 50%.


The graph of the S&P shows a similar behavior. This graph shows more time - the past ten days instead of the past two - and you can see here how we're at a crossroads. Either we break recent highs and go into full-blown bull party again, or we snap below Monday's lows, in which case - - finally - - we poor, beleaguered bears will get a bit more control over this market.


As you might imagine, the rise up in the market today and (to a lesser degree) yesterday took the air out of the $VIX in a big, big hurry.


I am doing today's entry in a mad rush to get on another plane, but I didn't want to leave everyone high and dry! More charts and analysis tomorrow - - promise.


at 11/29/2006 38 insightful comments
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Labels: $ndx, $rut, $spx, $vix



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Tuesday, November 28, 2006For Your Consideration
Well, after yesterday's 158 point drop, the market went up 14 points today, and CBS Marketwatch proudly trumpeted, "Buyers Come Back to Market!" Yeah, it's a veritable stampede.

The question over the coming days is whether yesterday's drop was a one-hit wonder or the start of something bigger. With the exception of mid-May to mid-July, the year 2006 has been largely a Big, Fat Disappointment to the brainy (and broke) bears, as the air-headed (and much richer) bulls have trampled all over us. Dogs do wonder when their day will come.

Take a look at this intraday chart of the S&P 500, for instance. The prior blue area was the last decent downturn. But as you can see, it only preceded yet another runup to new highs. There's every possibility this miniature rout could yield the same result.


The Dow Transports has been more consistently bearish than the Industrials. There was no rally today - it fell some more. This chart is probably one of the strongest reasons we bears have in our pocket for overall weakness in the future.


As mentioned a few days ago, the $VIX had gone (briefly) into single-digit territory (shown highlighted here). That didn't last. The $VIX exploded higher yesterday, and it seems to have broke its multi-month long downtrend.


I've augmented this graph of the Dow 30 with the Wilder RSI (shown beneath the price pane), and you can see the RSI has really tumbled hard lately. The Dow has plenty of room left to fall, even if the rising trendline stays intact.

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I've augmented this graph of the Dow 30 with the Wilder RSI (shown beneath the price pane), and you can see the RSI has really tumbled hard lately. The Dow has plenty of room left to fall, even if the rising trendline stays intact.


The NASDAQ Composite has a similar story. There's plenty of open space (shown in highlighted blue here) between the current price and the supporting trendline. So even respecting the possibility that the bull market might be intact for many months to come, there's still an opportunity to make cash on the descent back down to the supporting line.


GOOG is a curious chart right now. One could take a very bullish view on this stock from a technical perspective, and it has had a very clean retracement back to its breakout point after having ascended well above the fabled $500 level. You be the judge.


Virtually everything about GOOG (except the bit about $500) can be said of SHLD as well, although it looks a touch more vulnerable to my eyes.

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Virtually everything about GOOG (except the bit about $500) can be said of SHLD as well, although it looks a touch more vulnerable to my eyes.


Now a couple of short ideas for you. NXY:


And U.S. Steel (X):


It was a pretty slow day on the market today, so that's it for now. I'll be traveling on business tomorrow, so my blog will probably be posted later than normal. I'll see you on the other side.
at 11/28/2006 38 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $indu, $spx, $tran, goog, nxy, shld, xau

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Monday, November 27, 2006The Jerk Report

Did anybody notice, over marmalade and eggs
In between the princess' legs
What with wars and floods and beggars
Not to mention stocks and shares
If you have a moment to spare
Can you write and reassure me that I have seen
They're constructing a time machine
There will be no need for the obituary pages
We can have any hero from the bygone ages
'til the truth emerges, the argument rages
The major and the minor
Turn from tallow into tar
Should we leave them in their place?
Down in damnation's cellar

Ahhhhh. It was a nice, nice day. Best day in four months. The Dow down almost 160 points. The Russell, the S&P, the NASDAQ - all smashed.

But we must be careful here. The tyrannical bulls have fooled us many times already. Downdrafts have been short-lived. So as much as I'd like to see every bull on the planet get wiped out, let's wait a couple thousand points before putting any party hats on. It's just nice to get a good, solid, down over 1% (finally!) day under our belts.

Here's a chart you probably didn't expect. The traffic for f*ckedcompany.com (for your folks that bristle at anything more severe than "poppycock", I've politely included an asterisk). The schadenfreude that drove this site's popularity has clearly diminished with the market's health. Let's hope Phil Kaplan has plenty of reason to celebrate in the coming years as companies get nuked again.


The pattern we have seen recently certainly apes the one we saw in May before the delicious descent in June/July. One day does not a trend make. But it's a start.


The $MSH technology index had its breakout pattern shattered. Good. Poor old GOOG is beneath the nosebleed-high $500 mark.


The S&P 500 is probably the best index for options, given the relatively high volume and the volatility of the index. The bid/ask spreads still tend to be fairly gigantic, but on days like this, you can make some serious green.


Part of the profits stem from the fact that the volatility exploded higher. So the value of the options pushes up both intrinsically and from a time-risk perspective. Just look at this jump in the past few days.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 06:26 编辑 ]

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