一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Redback (RBAK), which I've named here several times, continues to perform well.


If you're still looking for something to short, you might consider Yahoo (YHOO). This is a long series of lower lows and lower highs, and let's face it, Google has totally trashed these guys. Amazing that the Google guys wanted to sell out for a couple of million bucks to Yahoo early on. At this point, GOOG's market cap is $150 billion, compared to $37 billion for YHOO.


at 11/14/2006 54 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $spx, $tran, goog, new high, rbak, yhoo

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hefeiddd

Thursday, November 09, 2006Sea Change
It was nice to see a good, solid down day. Particularly when the market blasted higher from the opening bell, riding on the wings of CSCO's strong earnings. The fact that the NASDAQ actually fell after such a strong opening is great. Green on the screen is a pleasant change these days.

The real change going on is in the political/social pulse of the country. 1994's Republican sweep into Congress preceded the monster bull market of 1995-2000. Conservative values, religion, the 'contract with America' - the whole schmear.

Now that the pendulum is starting to swing the other way, what do we have? Cover stories about aetheism, bestselling books about atheism, a very left-of-center Speaker of the House. It's like a mirror image of 1994. And don't you think the odds of a Democratic president in 2008 are pretty strong? The pendulum is swinging to the left, and I imagine it's going to be approaching socialism before it starts tipping the other way again.

How good do you think that's going to be for corporate profits? Can you imagine what kind of nuclear bomb will hit the market when the capital gains tax is eliminated and people must pay ordinary income on stock profits? After all, no more tax breaks for the rich!

Like I mentioned, the NASDAQ fell. The $NDX pierced its prior 100% Fib level (which, cough cough, I've conveniently skooched upward to today's high). I like the weakness today.


The Russell 2000, a perpetual favorite of mine, has puts which I've been gobbling up at these levels. Someone asked about IWM - to which I respond, yes, I like this for a short position. I wouldn't call it a head and shoulders, but I like how it is weakening.


I think I mentioned a couple of days back going long the $SOX. Nahhhhhh. I changed my mind and bought puts yesterday. I'm glad I did. This did well today, and it's got a really obvious stop price (and a really obvious this-was-the-right-choice price).


I've never drawn a trendline on an RSI until today, but it works rather well, don't you think?

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hefeiddd

I've never drawn a trendline on an RSI until today, but it works rather well, don't you think?


The cool thing is that the $VIX is slowly but surely turning upward. A series of higher lows, marked by that ascending trendline, illustrates this. C'mon, $VIX!!!


Now for some specific short suggestions, all of which have put options available. AMG:


BA, which kissed the underbelly of its former trendline today:

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hefeiddd

BA, which kissed the underbelly of its former trendline today:


FMX (no options on this, I don't think, but......):


HYDL, which busted its head and shoulders pattern, but still looks sweet:


TXT:


Hey, I could use another dose of Down tomorrow. We'll see.
at 11/09/2006 13 insightful comments
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Labels: $ndx, $rut, $sox, $spx, $vix, amg, ba, fmx, hydl, txt

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hefeiddd

Wednesday, November 08, 2006All News is Bullish News


Bear markets aren't fiction. They really do happen sometimes. Let us wistfully enjoy the prices of yesteryear, such as the NASDAQ's plunge from 2000 to 2002.....


Boy, those were the days. But no more. You can see how the $VIX just keeps getting ground down to nothing. The last time the bears were partying was in June/July of this year. It's been unrelenting misery ever since.


The NASDAQ was especially strong today. It's about to push into wide open territory, with no recent overhead resistance. Cisco's strong earnings posted after the market's close today is only going to help the bulls.


The $NDX has a skosh more to go to get into the same "open air", but it's probably going to happen. At least I don't own $MSH or $NDX puts anymore (I dumped those yesterday morning).

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hefeiddd

The $NDX has a skosh more to go to get into the same "open air", but it's probably going to happen. At least I don't own $MSH or $NDX puts anymore (I dumped those yesterday morning).


The S&P 500's chart over the past ten years is a fascinating one. This chart still looks really toppy to me, pushing right up against the upper boundary of its ascending channel and smack dab in its retracement area. But, God almighty, if a massive sweep to the left in U.S. politics isn't going to ding the market, what is? It would honestly take a major terrorist attack, bigger even than 9/11, at this point.


The only slightly bright spot today was the $XAU (gold and silver index), on which I own puts. I've (badly) drawn the former head and shoulders pattern on this. One could be generous and call this a "complex" head and shoulders at this point. All the same, it's got a nice clean stop.


at 11/08/2006 20 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $ndx, $xau, elections, new high

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hefeiddd

Tuesday, November 07, 2006Red, Blue.......and Green


The S&P 500 is at a serious make-or-break time. If the market is strong tomorrow, and the S&P pushes above its recent high, we might as well hang it up until mid-January (at least). "Bullish" election results would pretty much be the final nail on the coffin.


The Transports are still in a bearish pattern, clearly showing lower highs and lower lows. As with all trends, this is breakable, but it remains intact for now.


The NASDAQ Composite pushed above its multi-year high today (on an intraday basis), and if the market is happy with the results of the elections, this could easily bound much higher. As for what defines a bullish result - - who knows. I can only imagine a Democrat sweep would be damaging. Just about anything else (Republican victory, gridlock) would probably mean more bull.


Interestingly, the Amex Major Market Index ($XMI) closed down today, in spite of a lift across the board on all other indices. This is quite a shooting star pattern we have here. You may recall I pointed to this index as bullish quite a while back.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 09:12 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Interestingly, the Amex Major Market Index ($XMI) closed down today, in spite of a lift across the board on all other indices. This is quite a shooting star pattern we have here. You may recall I pointed to this index as bullish quite a while back.


During the summer, I had a great time shorting OIH and related stocks. It's not the slam-dunk that it was once, but there's definitely a pattern of lower lows and lower highs here (although it's softening). Shorting this with a stop at $140 seems like a decent bet.


Well, if we push higher tomorrow, I'll be tempted to stop blogging until the market gets fun again. But frankly I have too many readers at this point to walk away. So.....on with the show, I suppose!
at 11/07/2006 21 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $spx, $xmi, elections, oih


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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 09:14 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Monday, November 06, 2006Electile Dysfunction
This is a really dangerous time for us bears. All eyes are on the election right now. Setting aside whether the Dems or the Reps prevail, the fact is that if the market breaths a sigh of relief on Wednesday morning (for whatever reason), there are important "lines in the sand" which could be taken out by the bulls. If this happens, I'm ready to hang up my bearish hat until probably mid-January of next year (and even then I would consider whether to don it again or not).

The NASDAQ Composite represents this danger well. Look how close it is to pushing above the double top it has made over the past several months.


The Russell 2000 also shows this danger, but in a different way. Look at the downward-pointing arrow. If the $RUT pushes above this level (and it could easily be tomorrow or Wednesday), there's going to be a very hefty stake pushed through the bear's heart for the rest of the year.


If the market does push higher, the $SOX is probably not a bad place to look for calls. It seems to have found a short-term bottom.

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The $XAU (gold and silver), on the other hand, might be a nice short play. I've circled what seems to be a possible turning point. I've got puts on this index right now.

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One stock which shows just how hefty the bull run has been in mega-investor Warren Buffett's BRK.A, which now trades well over $100,000 per share!


I've mentioned Fluor (FLR) before as another good bearish pattern, but it merits repeating.


And let's bow our heads for a moment and remember departed reader hurricane5, who held us HANS as one of the "one decision" stocks to own. This poor beverage stock has lost 50% of its value. It had an unbeliveable run, but you just knew this thing couldn't sustain itself.

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少林弟子三皇寨











And let's bow our heads for a moment and remember departed reader hurricane5, who held us HANS as one of the "one decision" stocks to own. This poor beverage stock has lost 50% of its value. It had an unbeliveable run, but you just knew this thing couldn't sustain itself.


In closing, take a look at LEH. This stock is so typical of what I see right now. A double top which could be taken out and blow all the bears away. Or, if it weakens anew, could be a fantastic short to have. But this election isn't going to clear up until Wednesday. Until then, we can only wait and see.


at 11/06/2006 26 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $rut, $xau, brk.a, crr, flr, hans, leh

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 08:10 编辑 ]

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