一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Another candidate - Allergan (AGN):


I suggested Checkfree (CKFR) earlier this month, and it's getting smashed in after hours trading today. Nice to have a bright spot in this horrible market.


Health Net (HNT) is another short candidate.


And, lastly, Textron (TXT):


I've noticed in the comments section (which is much quieter now that the anomymous people are locked out) that people sometimes append their ideas with "do your homework" or "do your due diligence" or something else along those lines. Let me save your typing fingers - - you don't need to say such things. The whole idea behind charting is that whatever knowledge the market has is already built into the chart.

Does anyone really think that by puttering around the net they are going to uncover some explosive new information about a stock, be it good or bad, that it absent from the minds of the collective body that trades it? If so, have at it. I personally think you're wasting your time.

To everyone who has survived so far - my hat's off to you. This sucks!
at 10/24/2006 19 insightful comments
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Labels: $ndx, adbe, agn, ckfr, hnt, spy, txt

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Monday, October 23, 2006The Stampede Continues
Another day the bulls owned the bears. Big time. Google blasted toward $500 to a new record high. The Dow was up over 100 points early in the day and closed at a new all-time high. These are the times that try bears' souls. Assuming there are any bears even left.

Russell 2000 remains on my list of favored indexes to short (for those still insane enough to do so):


Capital One Financial (COF) is still on my favorites list (again, short).


Fluor (FLR) is doing relatively well (once again, bearish position) considering the market's strength.


I think NBL for a short position related to the oil markets.

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hefeiddd

I think NBL for a short position related to the oil markets.


Same applies to old favorite Oil Service Holders (OIH) which has a nice clean stop price for limited risk:


Another oil shortie, OII:


For a long position, think about Red Hat (RHAT) which has gorgeous volume to boot:

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hefeiddd

For a long position, think about Red Hat (RHAT) which has gorgeous volume to boot:


I finally (!!!) bought Sears (SHLD) today and am already in the green. Beautiful pattern here.


TSO is another short idea.


And, although higher risk than OIH, similar logic applies to shorting $XAU:


This is a rushed post, since I'm off to a business dinner. Considering how high the market is, my portfolio is pretty well intact. Hang in there, everybody.
at 10/23/2006 10 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, cof, flr, nbl, new high, oih, oii, rhat, shld, tso, xau


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Friday, October 20, 2006What a Week
This was quite a week. 12,000 pierced. A close above 12,000. It even managed to end the week above 12,000 (by 77/100ths of a point. Blowout earnings from GOOG. And a tidal wave of earnings reports, few of them shockingly bad.

If there's an opposite of fear and panic, we have it right now. The VIX pushed even below the trendline I drew for it a while back. These are epic low levels of complacency in the market.


Someone asked yesterday in the comments section about where I place stops. It depends on the chart. There's no set percentage or anything. That would be arbitrary. Take LLL, for instance, which I own puts on right now. I have an order to sell the puts at the market price if the underlying stock goes above 80. It's not based on a formula. It's based on the chart, and every chart is different.


I'm still 99% short right now (with a fair bit of cash on the sidelines), but here's a couple of long ideas for you. There's Redback Networks (RBAK):


As well as Sears (SHLD), which I've bashed for the longest time, but I cannot help but admire its gorgeous pattern. This has got to be the most perfect cup-with-handle pattern I've ever seen. It's beyond me why everyone on the planet would suddenly start buying their leisure suits and knit pants at Sears, but the chart doesn't lie.


I haven't indiscretely shown my positions in a while, so they are below (those that will fit on the screen, anyway; I ran out of room). As always, click on the picture (and any picture on this blog) to see a bigger version.




at 10/20/2006 33 insightful comments
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Labels: lll, positions, rbak, shld, vix

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Thursday, October 19, 2006Party Hats
Well, 12k on the Dow has not only been pierced but "closed". For the first time in history, the DJIA closed safely above the 12,000 level. If you don't think there was a battle for this, just look at the intraday graph. Traders were shoving each other back and forth over this line the past couple of days.



I took a snapshot of this chart today and was going to post a "looks like a buy!" (really! honest!). Anyway, Google (GOOG) posted their results about three seconds after the market closed today, and they were fantastic. After-hours trading has the stock trading about 30 points higher than the close. Let's face it, Google is a money machine.


The Russell 2000, as represented by the ETF IWM below, is truly at a crossroads. Just look at those lines converging.


One of the four rules I have written on my laptop is "Never do an ad-hoc close." What I mean by this is that, once in a position with a stop in place, I don't change my mind about it later out of boredom or doubt. The position stays.

This rule came in handy with CTXS. I had bought puts on it, but the graph was looking sort of hum-drum. I wasn't sure it wouldn't pop up in price. But I stuck to my rule and let the stop order do its work. CTXS got nuked today, and I got out of the position with a profit. (My stop was never triggered, obviously). So let your stops do their job. Don't monkey around with the position once it's in place.

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This rule came in handy with CTXS. I had bought puts on it, but the graph was looking sort of hum-drum. I wasn't sure it wouldn't pop up in price. But I stuck to my rule and let the stop order do its work. CTXS got nuked today, and I got out of the position with a profit. (My stop was never triggered, obviously). So let your stops do their job. Don't monkey around with the position once it's in place.


I mentioned this one before, but for those interested in shorting the world of real estate/REITs, try symbol IYR. There are puts on it (although fairly thinly traded), and this looks like a good long-term short play.


That's it for today.
at 10/19/2006 20 insightful comments
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Labels: ctxs, dow 12000, goog, iyr, new high

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Wednesday, October 18, 2006Done and Done


Turning our distended bodies to the markets, my gaze falls upon the NASDAQ 100. I dunno, to me this doesn't look like a market that's about to explode higher. Particularly since its larger brethren (the Dow) has been making such headlines of late.


Here are a few specific stocks I like (for shorting/put-buying, as you might guess). CBE:


CKFR:


COF:

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COF:


Deere (DE):


FDX:


Monsanto (MON):

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Monsanto (MON):


And Marathon Oil (MRO) which seems to be at an apex of sorts....


Sorry I didn't get to do a posting yesterday. I met a ton of people at the (regretably named) Money Show yesterday and wasn't in front of my computer until midnight.
at 10/18/2006 35 insightful comments
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Labels: $ndx, de, dow 12000, fdx, mon, mro, new high


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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 15:27 编辑 ]

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