一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

The $NDX has a skosh more to go to get into the same "open air", but it's probably going to happen. At least I don't own $MSH or $NDX puts anymore (I dumped those yesterday morning).


The S&P 500's chart over the past ten years is a fascinating one. This chart still looks really toppy to me, pushing right up against the upper boundary of its ascending channel and smack dab in its retracement area. But, God almighty, if a massive sweep to the left in U.S. politics isn't going to ding the market, what is? It would honestly take a major terrorist attack, bigger even than 9/11, at this point.


The only slightly bright spot today was the $XAU (gold and silver index), on which I own puts. I've (badly) drawn the former head and shoulders pattern on this. One could be generous and call this a "complex" head and shoulders at this point. All the same, it's got a nice clean stop.


at 11/08/2006 20 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $ndx, $xau, elections, new high

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hefeiddd

Tuesday, November 07, 2006Red, Blue.......and Green


The S&P 500 is at a serious make-or-break time. If the market is strong tomorrow, and the S&P pushes above its recent high, we might as well hang it up until mid-January (at least). "Bullish" election results would pretty much be the final nail on the coffin.


The Transports are still in a bearish pattern, clearly showing lower highs and lower lows. As with all trends, this is breakable, but it remains intact for now.


The NASDAQ Composite pushed above its multi-year high today (on an intraday basis), and if the market is happy with the results of the elections, this could easily bound much higher. As for what defines a bullish result - - who knows. I can only imagine a Democrat sweep would be damaging. Just about anything else (Republican victory, gridlock) would probably mean more bull.


Interestingly, the Amex Major Market Index ($XMI) closed down today, in spite of a lift across the board on all other indices. This is quite a shooting star pattern we have here. You may recall I pointed to this index as bullish quite a while back.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 09:12 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Interestingly, the Amex Major Market Index ($XMI) closed down today, in spite of a lift across the board on all other indices. This is quite a shooting star pattern we have here. You may recall I pointed to this index as bullish quite a while back.


During the summer, I had a great time shorting OIH and related stocks. It's not the slam-dunk that it was once, but there's definitely a pattern of lower lows and lower highs here (although it's softening). Shorting this with a stop at $140 seems like a decent bet.


Well, if we push higher tomorrow, I'll be tempted to stop blogging until the market gets fun again. But frankly I have too many readers at this point to walk away. So.....on with the show, I suppose!
at 11/07/2006 21 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $spx, $xmi, elections, oih


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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 09:14 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

Monday, November 06, 2006Electile Dysfunction
This is a really dangerous time for us bears. All eyes are on the election right now. Setting aside whether the Dems or the Reps prevail, the fact is that if the market breaths a sigh of relief on Wednesday morning (for whatever reason), there are important "lines in the sand" which could be taken out by the bulls. If this happens, I'm ready to hang up my bearish hat until probably mid-January of next year (and even then I would consider whether to don it again or not).

The NASDAQ Composite represents this danger well. Look how close it is to pushing above the double top it has made over the past several months.


The Russell 2000 also shows this danger, but in a different way. Look at the downward-pointing arrow. If the $RUT pushes above this level (and it could easily be tomorrow or Wednesday), there's going to be a very hefty stake pushed through the bear's heart for the rest of the year.


If the market does push higher, the $SOX is probably not a bad place to look for calls. It seems to have found a short-term bottom.

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The $XAU (gold and silver), on the other hand, might be a nice short play. I've circled what seems to be a possible turning point. I've got puts on this index right now.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

One stock which shows just how hefty the bull run has been in mega-investor Warren Buffett's BRK.A, which now trades well over $100,000 per share!


I've mentioned Fluor (FLR) before as another good bearish pattern, but it merits repeating.


And let's bow our heads for a moment and remember departed reader hurricane5, who held us HANS as one of the "one decision" stocks to own. This poor beverage stock has lost 50% of its value. It had an unbeliveable run, but you just knew this thing couldn't sustain itself.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

少林弟子三皇寨











And let's bow our heads for a moment and remember departed reader hurricane5, who held us HANS as one of the "one decision" stocks to own. This poor beverage stock has lost 50% of its value. It had an unbeliveable run, but you just knew this thing couldn't sustain itself.


In closing, take a look at LEH. This stock is so typical of what I see right now. A double top which could be taken out and blow all the bears away. Or, if it weakens anew, could be a fantastic short to have. But this election isn't going to clear up until Wednesday. Until then, we can only wait and see.


at 11/06/2006 26 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $rut, $xau, brk.a, crr, flr, hans, leh

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 08:10 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

Friday, November 03, 2006Sub-12K. Tim Says Yay.
The Dow was able to close for ten days in a row above the 12,000 level. Not today, though. We're back into 11,xxx territory. Let's hope it stays that way! For years!

As usual, I've got a number of charts to share with you that you might find of interest. First up is a long (you heard right) suggestion, symbol CRR. Looks pretty battered to me, and the swell in volume recently indicates a possible change in direction.


Now onto more familiar territory - the shorts! Here's FMX:


LLL looks good:


I like how MCK is playing against these Fib fans:

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

I like how MCK is playing against these Fib fans:


MTW looks like a good double top:


NVR is thinly traded, but a good topping pattern:


Finally, these's QQQQ. Check out the similarity between the two sections of the RSI indicator. To me, this suggests the QQQQs (and, therefore, the $NDX) are headed much lower.


at 11/03/2006 18 insightful comments
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Labels: crr, fmx, lll, mck, mtw, nvr, qqqq

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hefeiddd

Thursday, November 02, 2006Five in a Row
Five down days on the Dow in a row. Nice. Let's hope for a sixth tomorrow. A solid week of downers would be sweet. Of course, all eyes are on the election next week. The market can have perverse and surprising reactions. A huge victory for the Dems would supposedly damage the market. But let's remember Clinton's 1992-2000 tenure wasn't exactly bad for stocks.

My $MSH puts are slowly gaining strength. There's a lot of room to tumble, but there's no earnest downward momentum yet.


The same holds true for the Russell 2000 ($RUT). Today's "spinning top" candlestick pattern indicates uncertainty.


For anyone bearish on gold, check out AEM. It looks really vulnerable to a swing down.


FCX is a great put play, since it's got a tight stop and there's so much room on the downside. Plus the supporting trendline seems to have been pummelled into irrelevance.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

FCX is a great put play, since it's got a tight stop and there's so much room on the downside. Plus the supporting trendline seems to have been pummelled into irrelevance.


HYDL is a honey of a head and shoulders pattern. Full retracement has been completed.


Retailer Nordstrom (JWN) has decidedly busted through its supporting trendline and is high enough to be a relatively safe play.


lufk


The fog will hopefully clear by next Wednesday. Thanks for taking the time to stop by.
at 11/02/2006 10 insightful comments
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Labels: $msh, $rut, aem, fcx, hydl, jwn


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hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

Wednesday, November 01, 2006333
OK, I'm starting to enjoy the market again. Four down days in a row. Granted, only two of them were worth anything (today and last Friday), but I'll take what I can get. Red on the screen, and I'm a happy guy.

Today was actually my second-best day ever in percentage terms, and it wasn't even down that dramatically. It's finally becoming clear to the public that the economy is faltering. Bring on some more of that! I guess I'll only regret it when I try (again) to sell my second house here in Palo Alto, The market has become mushy around here, and I gave up selling it a few months ago. I was going to try again in spring, but if things keep going this way, I may wind up as a landlord far longer than I ever intended.

Many months ago I suggested ESRX as a short. It's worked out nicely. It never violated the stop price I suggested, and those owning puts have made out like bandits.


The NASDAQ is looking particularly squishy these days, which is terrific. Take a gander:


Similar action is on the $NDX. You can see a nice progression of lower highs here, and today's downdraft was a monster bearish engulfing pattern.


Also take note of just how quickly the air has come out of the S&P's RSI indicator. It's fallen from nosebleed levels to well under the important 70 line. Let's keep beating the spirit out of these bulls, guys 'n' gals. Shake them and break them.

hefeiddd

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