一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Monday, October 16, 2006It Must Be Frustrating.....
The closely-watched Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 11,997.10 today, a minuscule 2.90 points from the fabled 12,000 mark. At this point, it seems almost a foregone conclusion it will cross that level. I'd like to get it over with. It must be frustrating for all the media waiting to announce this big event.

The market reminds me of a popular toy from my childhood......


Given Friday's long, chart-rich post, this is going to be a short one. Here's the latest on the $SPX. There's plenty of overhead resistance from early 2000, and we seem at the highest reaches of a channel at this point. The fans you see traversing the screen date back to the Great Depression.


Fluor (FLR) looks pretty decent as a short to consider.


I've been short the Morgan Stanley Tech Index for a long, painful time. This one's been nasty. The stop is pretty obvious (and pretty close.......)


LUFK is another idea to consider for you shorties.....

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hefeiddd

LUFK is another idea to consider for you shorties.....


If you want to bet against the red-hot REIT market, the IYR is a good way to do it. There are plenty of puts out there........not heavily traded, but not so thin as to be impractical.


This week earnings will be coming in hot and heavy. Apple, Yahoo, Google......tons of stocks. Should make for some clearer direction.
at 10/16/2006 21 insightful comments
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Labels: flr, iyr, lufk, msh, new high, spx

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hefeiddd

Friday, October 13, 2006Darkest Before the Dawn?
To All Disciples, Nay-Sayers, Hangers-On, and Stubborn Mules.......



The NASDAQ, which I am painfully short by means of puts on the QQQQ, the $NDX, and the $MSH, has been super strong. It's wayyyyyyy at the top of almost every technical channel at this point. But - - that is meaning squat these days.


The Russell 2000 index is something I follow closely. If the market ever does start falling (which, I'm guessing, will be around the year 2039 or so) this one is going to get hit the worst. It's been quite strong and is approaching a lifetime high. I'll let the chart speak for itself.


The S&P 500 has been charging ahead as well. Unlike the Dow, it is not at a lifetime high (God forbid it gets there anytime soon). It's pushing its way toward its 78.6% Fib retracement. This is a heavily marked-up chart.


The $VIX is as low as public opinion of Congress right now. I mean, God almighty, just look at this thing. I've circled the prior nadirs (how often do you use that phrase in conversation?)

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The $VIX is as low as public opinion of Congress right now. I mean, God almighty, just look at this thing. I've circled the prior nadirs (how often do you use that phrase in conversation?)


I bought calls on the $XAU a few days back and sold them today for a decent profit. Yeah, a wimpy little trade, I know. I'm just having trouble defying this huge head and shoulders pattern any longer. But it definitely bounced off that Fib line (and neckline) and could head higher - maybe even much higher.


Now on to some specific stocks. Here's AAPL. Doesn't the current action look just a touch like late 99/early 2000 to you?


Here's Allegan (AGN):

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Here's Allegan (AGN):


Boeing (BA) which - gasp - went DOWN today. Maybe the whole Airbus-sucks thing has played itself out. This is a broken trendline.


Black and Decker (BDK):


CMI which, umm, looks just a little overbought, wouldn't you say. I mean, God almighty, just look at this thing.

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CMI which, umm, looks just a little overbought, wouldn't you say. I mean, God almighty, just look at this thing.


CTX.......


DE, which I'm not zany about, but seems vulnerable enough......


IWM, which is the ETF for the Russell. A convergence seems to be approaching.

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IWM, which is the ETF for the Russell. A convergence seems to be approaching.


Lehman (LEH).....


LEN.....


Our old friend OIH which, I confess, could go up. But I'm betting down. I'd say a stop at $131 would make this a relatively low risk/high reward trade.

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hefeiddd

Our old friend OIH which, I confess, could go up. But I'm betting down. I'd say a stop at $131 would make this a relatively low risk/high reward trade.


Redback is something that I'm long. Goes against ever fiber in my body, I know, but it is one of the few decent looking bullish plays I see.


I will now grab my mango-infused rum, kneel down on the floor, and pray to the bearish God in heaven to smite those who keep pushing the market higher. Our time will come. Let's just hope we're not all wearing barrels by the time it does.

at 10/13/2006 22 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, $spx, $xau, aapl, agn, ba, cmi, de, iwm, leh, len, new high, oih, rbak, vix


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Thursday, October 12, 200612K for the Sake of 12K
Have you ever heard the saying about how someone is famous for being famous? Sort of like George Hamilton......well it seems to be the market is heading for 12K (on the Dow) just for the sake of hitting 12K.


The past three months have been agonizing, horrible, devastating, and just plain terrible for the bears. The bullish march has been relentless. Just look at the 60 day intraday graph of the SPY. It's basically like someone laid down a ruler and took it straight up with almost no interruptions.......


Looking at the daily graph, with a channel laid down on top of it, you can see the market is way, way, way at the tippy-top of the channel. Does it mean there is a law written somewhere that it has to fall now? Ummm, no. I think we've seen how respectful prices are of these channels! But it still seems more likely to be lower in the next few months than higher.


All the same, the power of the bulls has been something to behold. I wish I could show you some great bullish charts with terrific breakout patterns, but I can't. This is a momentum market. Things are super high, and they are going super-higher. Sorry. I have no charts to share with you today.


at 10/12/2006 41 insightful comments
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Labels: new high, spy

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叱诧风云











Wednesday, October 11, 2006La De Da
It seems a tiny passenger plane accidentally running into an apartment building has more import to the world financial markets than a crazed dictator with nuclear arms. Go figure.

I thought we had 'em today, but the plunge protectors (or whoever.....) pushed most of the losses off the Dow. Phooey.

I had a great day with Legg Mason (LM) and, generally speaking, things were pretty good. I humbly offer up a few suggestions for shorts/puts, simply because I'll never wise up........

Alcan (AL), a lovely head and shoulders pattern....


Alexandria Real Estate - - many REITs have similar charts (symbol ARE):


Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), a nice Fib setup:


Lehman (LEH):

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 15:29 编辑 ]

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