一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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Also take note of just how quickly the air has come out of the S&P's RSI indicator. It's fallen from nosebleed levels to well under the important 70 line. Let's keep beating the spirit out of these bulls, guys 'n' gals. Shake them and break them.


I loaded up on $XAU puts early today, when it was high. It closed pretty much unchanged. This isn't a clean head and shoulders pattern per se, but it's got the markings of one. I like it.


The Fib Fans on ADSK are charming, to me, and it's got a nice, clean stop. Ummm, keep in mind that tight stops can get ignored by giant gaps up, such as I experienced with Cigna (CI) today. It basically opened at its high and fell the rest of the day. Grumble. But I digress.


I've been holding AGN puts for a while. Nice one.

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hefeiddd

I've been holding AGN puts for a while. Nice one.


For those wanting to take advantage of the sky-high REIT market, may I direct your attention to ARE?


ATI looks to have put in a lovely double top.


Capital One (COF), mentioned here on numerous occasions, is behaving like a good boy should.

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Capital One (COF), mentioned here on numerous occasions, is behaving like a good boy should.


NOV is a nice play on the OIH drop.


Finally, someone mentioned US Steel (X). I bought puts on this a couple of days back. I like what I see here.


In closing, I just want to say thank-you for the thank-yous. There are a lot of nice notes in the comments section, and believe me, I don't do this blog for the money (averting eyes....) I do it for the love! So I appreciate the nice words.
at 11/01/2006 12 insightful comments
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Labels: adsk, agn, are, ati, cof, compq, nasdaq, ndx, nov, spx, xau

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Tuesday, October 31, 2006Trick......or Treat?
What a roller coaster of a day. I thought we bears were going to get a real treat (Dow was down over 50 points) but it turned out to be more of a trick (market went positive before the close, and finally settled down only 11 points). Here's a line chart of the action over the past few days on the Dow. Totally direction-free. What a mess.


I continue to tout the Russell 2000 as a good place to own puts if you think the market is going to fall. It's got a super-clean stop price too. Puts on this aren't heavily traded, but the bid/ask spread isn't too godawful.


The Transports are looking ready to begin a fresh descent. I like this progression of lower lows and lower highs. A clear tumble here would spook all the Dow Theorists pretty badly.

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仙境神功













The Transports are looking ready to begin a fresh descent. I like this progression of lower lows and lower highs. A clear tumble here would spook all the Dow Theorists pretty badly.


Bear Stearns (BSC) isn't in any textbook bearish pattern, but the puts on these will have a lot of juice if the steam ever starts to come out of this stock. It is high enough to make this a relatively low-risk/high reward trade.


A more conservative trade would be along the lines of Cigna (CI). I would buy puts many months in the future on this one, since a gigantic insurance stock isn't going to be horribly volatile.


Earnings season isn't providing the kind of clarity/direction I was hoping. Bulls and bears are both losing their minds in this market. So we wait.
at 10/31/2006 18 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $rut, $tran, bsc, ci

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 10:26 编辑 ]

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Monday, October 30, 2006Tasty Shorts
The market didn't do too much of anything today. Oil (and therefore OIH) softened up a tad, which is consistent with my speculation that the energy market is going to resume its downward movement. Gold, in spite of the metal's rise in price, softened too on the $XAU. The Dow just lost a handful of points. At least we didn't have some big 'recovery' day after Friday's nice drop.

I just wanted to share a few charts on which I own puts right now. Here's AMG. This pattern is basically in a "post-broken trendline" situation, which is a favorite of mine. The general uptrend has been clearly broken, and the stock has recovered partly or fully to the underside of the trendline. These often represent low risk/high reward trades. Let's call this kind of pattern PBT for the sake of today's entry.


LEN is just a nice topping formation:


NDAQ looks pooped:


TXT is another "PBT":

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 09:09 编辑 ]

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 09:10 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

TXT is another "PBT":


I've mentioned MRO a few times already:


Altria (MO), yet another "PBT", which seems kind of common these days:


The VIX went up some time, which is also consistent with my view that we've bottomed out on volatility and complacency. The market misbehaved badly in September and October (typically bearish months, yet the market went up) so let's hope the typically bullish months of November and December likewise confuse everyone! We bears could use a break. A sustained break.
at 10/30/2006 25 insightful comments
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Labels: amg, len, mro, ndaq, txt


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Friday, October 27, 2006A Momentary Dose of Reason
Keee-Rist. It's about flippin' time. The Dow fell 73 points today, after going up for the past 1,342 days in a row. Earlier in the day it looked like another "drop and pop" session where we'd have another new high. Not this time. Some people with triple-digit IQs are actually getting a tiny bit of press and a few people are paying attention. Of course, any fall in the market which doesn't last for months on end will simply be labeled profit-taking.

If the market does ever get around to being sensible and falling for a while, one juicy thing for us put-owners is that the intrinsic value and the volatility premium will go up. The $VIX is at nearly the lowest level in human history. Just look at how much higher it was in June (ahhhhh, now those were good times).


We're just going to look at some indexes today. You guys have seen enough stock charts.

The NASDAQ hasn't been as lusty as the big caps lately. Here's the NASDAQ Composite. It's not in any clear technical formation per se. But at least any short position would be stopped out promptly, since we're so near multi-year highs. In other words, the "I must be wrong for now" levels are not far away, so the risk is pretty low.


The Morgan Stanley Tech Index (which I affectionally call "mush" based on its $MSH symbol) has thinly-traded puts. Indeed, I am the open interest on the options strike that I own. Considering the massive amount of overhead resistance, this could be a fantastic triple top.


Here's a somewhat long view on the S&P 500. Those diagonal lines you see are Fib Fans. Back in mid-July, when I said we had bottomed out, I wish I had the foresight to look ahead to just how far we would have climbed. I'm afraid the bearish goggles I was wearing didn't let me do that. But I haven't changed any of these studies. They clearly permitted the index to push its way this high. But it makes sense that it's reversing at this point. There's a ton of reasons for it to turn now.

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Here's a somewhat long view on the S&P 500. Those diagonal lines you see are Fib Fans. Back in mid-July, when I said we had bottomed out, I wish I had the foresight to look ahead to just how far we would have climbed. I'm afraid the bearish goggles I was wearing didn't let me do that. But I haven't changed any of these studies. They clearly permitted the index to push its way this high. But it makes sense that it's reversing at this point. There's a ton of reasons for it to turn now.


The Transports have not been confirming the Dow Industrial highs. This shows a clean progression of lower highs. Not good for the bulls out there.


The Gold & Silver index ($XAU) could go either way. I bought puts on this today, but I've got a really tight stop at about the $141 level. This isn't a head and shoulders anymore. But it could still blow through that lower resistance level to the next line down.


Check out the ungodly high RSI on the $XMI. Total nosebleed territory.


I really hope next week brings us more of today (and less of the prior four days). The economy is weakening. That's not speculation - that's a known fact. The housing bubble is shrinking. I think a comment I saw on this blog Wednesday represents the bullish mentality: "Forget about nuclear weapons and all the other turmoil for now and just enjoy the ride upward." That's crazy. My view is that the market is going to get crushed, and I want to make a fortune in the process of watching everybody else lose theirs.
at 10/27/2006 17 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $msh, $spx, $tran, $vix, $xau, $xmi

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Thursday, October 26, 2006Cut and Paste
I'm starting to think I should just cut and paste a generic blog entry each day: "The economy is on a precipice. The housing market is failing. Stocks are insanely overvalued. And a new high was reached today." It would save me plenty of time and effort.

Today it was reported that houses suffered the biggest year-over-year fall in over three decades. My local market (the crazy SF Bay Area) is looking like this lately:


So how did the market react to the news that the principal asset of every American is collapsing in value? It spiked to a new high! Of course! Here's the S&P 500 with the RSI indicator. The index is at the top of a channel and the RSI is in nosebleed territory.


I have no position in Red Hat, but this is an amazing stock. Below is the entire history. You can see broad trends of higher highs/higher lows and lower highs/lower lows over the course of its history. I guess the news that Oracle is going to provide support to Red Hat users at a deep discount tossed a nuclear missile at this stock (which had amazingly high volume - something like over 80 million shares).


Now here's a chart I simply cannot figure out. It's symbol IYR, which is an ETF for real estate in the U.S. This chart just goes up and up and up. Even on a day like today. Clearly this has nothing to do with domestic housing (I suppose). I would think that the shrinking of the housing bubble would be causing damage here. Not in this market.......


Perversely, in this bearish blog, my "long" suggestions are doing great. Once again, the hotties are Redback Networks (RBAK):

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