一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Thursday, October 19, 2006Party Hats
Well, 12k on the Dow has not only been pierced but "closed". For the first time in history, the DJIA closed safely above the 12,000 level. If you don't think there was a battle for this, just look at the intraday graph. Traders were shoving each other back and forth over this line the past couple of days.



I took a snapshot of this chart today and was going to post a "looks like a buy!" (really! honest!). Anyway, Google (GOOG) posted their results about three seconds after the market closed today, and they were fantastic. After-hours trading has the stock trading about 30 points higher than the close. Let's face it, Google is a money machine.


The Russell 2000, as represented by the ETF IWM below, is truly at a crossroads. Just look at those lines converging.


One of the four rules I have written on my laptop is "Never do an ad-hoc close." What I mean by this is that, once in a position with a stop in place, I don't change my mind about it later out of boredom or doubt. The position stays.

This rule came in handy with CTXS. I had bought puts on it, but the graph was looking sort of hum-drum. I wasn't sure it wouldn't pop up in price. But I stuck to my rule and let the stop order do its work. CTXS got nuked today, and I got out of the position with a profit. (My stop was never triggered, obviously). So let your stops do their job. Don't monkey around with the position once it's in place.

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This rule came in handy with CTXS. I had bought puts on it, but the graph was looking sort of hum-drum. I wasn't sure it wouldn't pop up in price. But I stuck to my rule and let the stop order do its work. CTXS got nuked today, and I got out of the position with a profit. (My stop was never triggered, obviously). So let your stops do their job. Don't monkey around with the position once it's in place.


I mentioned this one before, but for those interested in shorting the world of real estate/REITs, try symbol IYR. There are puts on it (although fairly thinly traded), and this looks like a good long-term short play.


That's it for today.
at 10/19/2006 20 insightful comments
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Labels: ctxs, dow 12000, goog, iyr, new high

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Wednesday, October 18, 2006Done and Done


Turning our distended bodies to the markets, my gaze falls upon the NASDAQ 100. I dunno, to me this doesn't look like a market that's about to explode higher. Particularly since its larger brethren (the Dow) has been making such headlines of late.


Here are a few specific stocks I like (for shorting/put-buying, as you might guess). CBE:


CKFR:


COF:

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COF:


Deere (DE):


FDX:


Monsanto (MON):

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Monsanto (MON):


And Marathon Oil (MRO) which seems to be at an apex of sorts....


Sorry I didn't get to do a posting yesterday. I met a ton of people at the (regretably named) Money Show yesterday and wasn't in front of my computer until midnight.
at 10/18/2006 35 insightful comments
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Labels: $ndx, de, dow 12000, fdx, mon, mro, new high


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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 15:27 编辑 ]

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Monday, October 16, 2006It Must Be Frustrating.....
The closely-watched Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 11,997.10 today, a minuscule 2.90 points from the fabled 12,000 mark. At this point, it seems almost a foregone conclusion it will cross that level. I'd like to get it over with. It must be frustrating for all the media waiting to announce this big event.

The market reminds me of a popular toy from my childhood......


Given Friday's long, chart-rich post, this is going to be a short one. Here's the latest on the $SPX. There's plenty of overhead resistance from early 2000, and we seem at the highest reaches of a channel at this point. The fans you see traversing the screen date back to the Great Depression.


Fluor (FLR) looks pretty decent as a short to consider.


I've been short the Morgan Stanley Tech Index for a long, painful time. This one's been nasty. The stop is pretty obvious (and pretty close.......)


LUFK is another idea to consider for you shorties.....

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LUFK is another idea to consider for you shorties.....


If you want to bet against the red-hot REIT market, the IYR is a good way to do it. There are plenty of puts out there........not heavily traded, but not so thin as to be impractical.


This week earnings will be coming in hot and heavy. Apple, Yahoo, Google......tons of stocks. Should make for some clearer direction.
at 10/16/2006 21 insightful comments
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Labels: flr, iyr, lufk, msh, new high, spx

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hefeiddd

Friday, October 13, 2006Darkest Before the Dawn?
To All Disciples, Nay-Sayers, Hangers-On, and Stubborn Mules.......



The NASDAQ, which I am painfully short by means of puts on the QQQQ, the $NDX, and the $MSH, has been super strong. It's wayyyyyyy at the top of almost every technical channel at this point. But - - that is meaning squat these days.


The Russell 2000 index is something I follow closely. If the market ever does start falling (which, I'm guessing, will be around the year 2039 or so) this one is going to get hit the worst. It's been quite strong and is approaching a lifetime high. I'll let the chart speak for itself.


The S&P 500 has been charging ahead as well. Unlike the Dow, it is not at a lifetime high (God forbid it gets there anytime soon). It's pushing its way toward its 78.6% Fib retracement. This is a heavily marked-up chart.


The $VIX is as low as public opinion of Congress right now. I mean, God almighty, just look at this thing. I've circled the prior nadirs (how often do you use that phrase in conversation?)

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The $VIX is as low as public opinion of Congress right now. I mean, God almighty, just look at this thing. I've circled the prior nadirs (how often do you use that phrase in conversation?)


I bought calls on the $XAU a few days back and sold them today for a decent profit. Yeah, a wimpy little trade, I know. I'm just having trouble defying this huge head and shoulders pattern any longer. But it definitely bounced off that Fib line (and neckline) and could head higher - maybe even much higher.


Now on to some specific stocks. Here's AAPL. Doesn't the current action look just a touch like late 99/early 2000 to you?


Here's Allegan (AGN):

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Here's Allegan (AGN):


Boeing (BA) which - gasp - went DOWN today. Maybe the whole Airbus-sucks thing has played itself out. This is a broken trendline.


Black and Decker (BDK):


CMI which, umm, looks just a little overbought, wouldn't you say. I mean, God almighty, just look at this thing.

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