一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

OII:


PBR:


PXD:


RBAK, which is looking really fantastic, particularly when you check out the volume:

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hefeiddd

RBAK, which is looking really fantastic, particularly when you check out the volume:


RYL:


SII:


X, which is nearing a supporting trendline:

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-8 11:55 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

X, which is nearing a supporting trendline:


And, finally, the $XAU (gold/silver index) which, yes, looks like a massive head and shoulders pattern, but in my opinion is really at a major support line right now and is quite oversold.


Before anyone starts running around saying the top is here because Trader Tim the Permabear is buying stuff, let me be clear - I've still got plenty of shorts. I still think the market is ultimately in for a big wipe-out. But there are plenty of stocks right now, especially related to energy and metals, that look really sweet on the upside.

Now - - - back to eating my humble pie.
at 10/04/2006 38 insightful comments
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Labels: $xau, goog, hov, hrs, jec, mee, nem, rbak, ryl

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hefeiddd

Tuesday, October 03, 2006Big Swinging Dow


Now let's get on with our business of busting some bull heads.

My frequent - nay, incessant - recommendations to short all things oil has obviously been great advice. OIH and its components got nuked today, and the beauty part is that the pattern is sexier than ever. I mean, just look at this thing. It's gorgeous.


As for the Dow itself, here's a minute bar graph of the past sixty trading days. Notice anything interesting about the upward surges? That's right - they're getting shorter and shorter, weaker and weaker. All the bull's energy has been poured into getting onto the front page of the Daily Bugle. Well, you've done it, fellas. BFD. Congratulations.


The bottom line for me is this - I've got over 80 positions, about 70 puts and 10 shorts, in all kinds of different industries. And my portfolio value went up today. That's why I'm looking this bull straight in the face and laughing at it. Savor the moment, pal. You're about to get wasted.


at 10/03/2006 143 insightful comments
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Monday, October 02, 2006Cool Water
Greetings, beloved bears.

Although today seemed like a total yawner (Dow down just a few points), it was actually a great day for my portfolios. Oil's weakness (and I am using OIH as my basis, even though obviously that's not crude oil) has been great, and it just keeps getting better. I'm maintaining something like 80 different positions, all puts, and they're doing dandy.

The volatility index, $VIX, is low, low down, and I like that. Because I think it's about to churn upward again. Check out the supporting trendline.


I mentioned the picture-perfect Fibs on the QQQQs last week, and these are behaving very nicely. The $NDX was much weaker today than the other averages.


Speaking of OIH, here's an update. I know I post this graph virtually every day, but it's such a honey, it's worthy of our constant care and attention.


The question, of course, is how far down will crude go? I'm thinking about $53 or so in the near term, based on this continuous contract graph.

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hefeiddd

The question, of course, is how far down will crude go? I'm thinking about $53 or so in the near term, based on this continuous contract graph.


Posting a bazillion graphs is a drag. Let me share some of my newer ideas for sweet-looking put positions. Oh, and hey Prophet.net users - - good news - - I nagged enough to get an OK on making ProphetCharts available on the site. It's gonna cost ya. But these are God's own charts.


I like CME. It's expensive, which means there could be real some green on options movement here.


Oh, and if you go back to my entry of May 16, I suggested MRVL as a short. If you look at the graph from back then, you'll see it was about $54 at the time. In after-hours trading, it's something like $16 right now. Yowzah! Nice.


For the convenience of any visiting bulls, here are direct links to  I hope they tickle your long-horned funny bone.
at 10/02/2006 76 insightful comments
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Labels: mrvl, oih, qqqq, vix

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Friday, September 29, 2006Give It Up!

“To the last, I grapple with thee; From Hell's heart, I stab at thee; For hate's sake, I spit my last breath at thee” - Melville

Well, bulls, you had all week to try to make your new high, but it didn't happen. In spite of having the entire world on your side, as well as CNBC, you couldn't pull it off. I saw some articles torture the data so they could try to make news out of the week. For instance, I read that the high price on Wednesday exceeded the closing price from January 14, 2000. And they tried to spin that as a "new lifetime high." Who cares? Give it up!

Before going into stocks, let's take a peek at our beloved OIH. I wasn't too happy with today's action. My 131.07 contingent order didn't get taken out, but I'd prefer seeing the price fall away from the retracement. We're still in play, however, and so long as we don't violate our stop, we remain positioned in puts galore.


The Federal Government started hiding the M3 figure earlier this year, but some intrepid souls have been able to compute it in any case. The graph below illustrates how the Feds have poured cash into the economy to keep things floating. They're eventually going to run out of this fuel, you realize. This house of cards can't stay propped up forever.


I've got puts on QQQQ and $NDX. Today was a nice bearish engulfing pattern. In mid-July we had a different (bullish) candlestick, the hammer, which proved quite prescient.


The Dow, which is what everyone has been watching, fell 40 points today. It came within 9 points of its all time high at one point. Hey, bulls! Psych! All the same, there's no doubt the past few years have been good to them in general. Notice the huge push up in 2003 and the less pronounced push up since then.


I am trusting Mr. T to keep the markets down on the Russell 2000. The most recent horizontal line drawn is my line in the sand. We want to see prices fail below this line to affirm the death of the bull market.

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hefeiddd

I am trusting Mr. T to keep the markets down on the Russell 2000. The most recent horizontal line drawn is my line in the sand. We want to see prices fail below this line to affirm the death of the bull market.


Meanwhile, the $XMI, which had the most bullish of all the index patterns, seems to be pooping out.


Now for some specific stocks on which I own puts and obviously feel good about from a bearish perspective. Cummins (CMI):


Capital One Financial (COF):

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hefeiddd

Capital One Financial (COF):


Monsanto (MON):


Panera Bread (PNRA), which a blog reader said was too dangerous to short. Well, so far, so good.


And old favorite Sears (SHLD). I mean, come on, people. It's Sears. Have you walked around a Sears lately? Not unless you're shopping for a lawnmower or mattress. What a hole!


See you next week. Victory, come visit us in October!

at 9/29/2006 38 insightful comments
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Thursday, September 28, 2006Let's Get This Over With!
OK. Please get to a new high, Dow. Please! I'm so sick of this media obsession. Get it done. Cross over 11,750, even by just a point or two, and let's move on with our lives. That would probably be enough to start a sell off.

Once again, the market wasn't able to grab the brass ring today. It got within 22 points this time.


Watching the intraday on the $INDU over the past couple of days is really interesting. You can see very clearly the shoving match going on. The bulls made a breakout happen today, briefly, but it eased back again. The vast majority of people (like 99.9%) want to see a new lifetime high. That would be big, easy news.


For me, all I can say is one word: oil. Specifically, OIH. I'm sick and tired of stocks right now - - general stocks, at least. OIH and those related to it are doing great for me. I'm going to ignore the madness and focus on oil. My stop on OIH is any price over 131.07. The high today was 131.00, and it eased off from there. Phew!




at 9/28/2006 38 insightful comments
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