一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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NutriSystem (NTRI):


Sears (SHLD) which, I know, is a gorgeous cup with handle pattern - - but I've just got a hunch.....


UPL:


That's it for me. This week was pretty much a wash. Someday the market's going to get whacked. When it does, I'm well positioned. In the meantime, I'm playing a defensive game. Have a good weekend, and best of luck in your trading next week!
at 9/15/2006 36 insightful comments
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Wednesday, September 13, 2006Bulls, You are SO Good!
Luke: "I'm not afraid!"
Yoda: "You will be. You will be."

Well, the oil/gold plunge took a day off, and the markets were strong overall. Feh! It wasn't such a bad day for me. I've moved a lot of positions into cash and lightened up the gold/oil yesterday. I'm still 100% in puts, however, on those positions I do have (and there are something like 60 of them). Plenty of cash on the sidelines ready to deploy into more puts.

For your masochists out there, here are a few suggestions for shorts (or, more aggressively, puts) to consider. I've included contingent stop prices (e.g. the position gets closed if the stock closes above the cited value).

Black & Decker (BDK, $84.85)


Capital One Financial (COF, $82.22)


Morgan Stanley Tech Index ($MSH, $525.00)


Perennial favorite NutriSystem (NTRI, $65.75)

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Perennial favorite NutriSystem (NTRI, $65.75)


NASDAQ (QQQQ, 40.19)


Russell 2000 Index ($RUT, $742.26)


Lastly, I was so irked at the champions of censorship (and their 19th century sensibilities) coming down on me for my video that I wanted to post another one. The difference is that this one is just plain funny. I don't think it will offend subscribers to Readers Digest, purchasers of Metamucil, or occupants of corn-growing states. All the


at 9/13/2006 43 insightful comments
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Wednesday, September 13, 2006Come On, Toshi!
This market is now pushing the upper boundaries of all the lines. Check out the $OEX and see just how high it is:


If you look close, we are at the resistance level both from the trendline perspective and, though you can't see it, the long-term 50% Fibonacci retracement perspective.


Bold souls might want to short aggressively at these levels. This is bananas!


at 9/13/2006 10 insightful comments
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Monday, September 11, 2006Thank You, Commodities!
It was a sweet trading day. Gold and oil, mentioned as shorts here many times, got completely trashed. Looks like there may be plenty more trashing to come. Here's the latest chart on OIH, which has plainly broken its neckline, along with some possible support levels on the way down.


Funny enough, since oil peaked in the first half of May, there was a scramble to generate financial instruments based on this once-again hot commodity. Some web ads can be awfully ironic.


Here's the $XAU, which got nuked. I see a lot more potential downside here. Today was an extraordinary gap down.


The S&P 500 ($SPX) has until recently made a series of higher highs, which is what a bull market is made of. I think the trend may have changed. I've illustrated the "chain" of higher highs and what I think might be the first link in a new chain of lower highs, which is what a bear market is made of.


The $OEX, bless its heart, broke under its trendline, and it's struggling to mount it again. I think it will fail. Which means we here will succeed.

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The $OEX, bless its heart, broke under its trendline, and it's struggling to mount it again. I think it will fail. Which means we here will succeed.


Here's a lovely example of the power of trendlines. ATW broke under its trendline. It struggled mightily (as the $OEX is now) to get back up. It kissed the trendline. Then - - sayonara, cowboy.


Genentech (DNA) gives us a great example of a failed pattern. This was a gorgeous saucer shaping up. Even I mentioned it as a bullish pick (gack, gack, cough). Today changed the picture. No more saucer.


Although I have no position in GRMN, this might be a nice head & shoulders pattern which is nearly completed.

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Although I have no position in GRMN, this might be a nice head & shoulders pattern which is nearly completed.


The same applies to HYDL.


This market is a lot more fun these days. Hopefully there won't be a "gee, no attack on 9/11 anniversary" rally tomorrow. The bulls will buy based on just about any premise. Anyway, see you here on Tuesday.
at 9/11/2006 115 insightful comments
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Monday, September 11, 2006Gold, Oil, and the Fifth Anniversary
I read in the comments section how my (cringing) post of bullish picks was the sign of capitulation and a turning point. He's right. If I - the bear of bears - the Cassandra of Cassandras - start hunting for something to buy, you know that the market's about to fall. And so it has. All this great contrary advice for free!

For those of you who just flew in from a deep-space colony, today marks the solemn 5th anniversary of the attack on America. I preserved my email that day, shown below. Note the interesting subject lines that precede and follow it. My favorite is "Development goes on" from our dearly departed Alex.


So - - oil - - OIH - - has finally broken its neckline! YES! Huzzah! Cheers and felicitations! Traditional H&S measurement methods would indicate a fall down to $90. I'm not so sure. The traditional measurement rarely works, in my experience. Suffice it to say those of us positioned bearishly on oil are having a fantastic morning. I know I am.


Gold is likewise getting clobbered (and, likewise, I've been pointing to it as a great short). Unlike OIH, the H&S is in formation, not complete. But it's a honey. And if it does complete, the gold bugs are going to be chased away for another twenty years.


It wasn't that long ago that we were flooded with advertisements and marketing messages about gold. $2,000/ounce gold. Buy, buy, buy! I guess I'm not the only one that creates contrary indicators.


at 9/11/2006 24 insightful comments
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Friday, September 08, 2006September Straightens Up
First, a tip of the paw to a blog reader Paul who was kind enough me. The bear clip is pretty funny.

It was a pretty good week. Gold and oil were particularly good to us bears. Even though the stock indexes were up today, all my portfolios went up (in spite of being 100% bearish) simply because they are so loaded with oil and gold shorts. OIH is looking really sweet, and maybe that H&S pattern isn't so apt to be foresaken after all........


If the $INDU starts falling, I've marked what I think are the natural points of support. If it makes its way down to the 10,700 zone, there is a ton of support, both in terms of the Fib retracement as well as a trendline - - plus the fact that 10,600 has been an ungodly strong support zone. If it truly manage to bust below 10,600, then 10,000 is the next huge brick wall. It would take something really, really serious to get us below 10,000 within the next year or so.


The $OEX reached its tippy top early this week and has been easing back. I think it's unlikely these broader indexes are going to show such strength any time in the near future.


Same with the $SPX - this is a longer-term view.

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Same with the $SPX - this is a longer-term view.


The $UTIL had been a really steady ascender for years, but it brokes its trendline long ago and has been in a trading range. It's very near the top of that range, and I've highlighted the fairly substantial amount of distance it could fall before reaching its next major support zone.


As I mentioned, gold has been doing great (for bears) and although this H&S pattern is even iffy-er than OIH's, it could still happen. As you can see from my clumsy drawing, it's a good thing I never tried to become a surgeon. Many lives have been saved.


Have a good weekend, and I'll hope to see you Monday afternoon.
at 9/08/2006 30 insightful comments
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