一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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The $MID to me is looking sort of alluring as a potential put purchase. The stop price is pretty tight. Mind you, today's action is not encouraging. But if it's a one-day wonder, looking for shorts at these lofty levels is a good exercise.


One honest-to-goodness down market that's been really good to me lately is oil. The $OSX, shown below, is very similar to the OIH, and you can see its squeaky-clean head and shoulders pattern. Things might have bottomed out for the short term (like the next week or so), but it's been great so far.


I recommended Massey Energy, for example, weeks ago. It has taken a terrific tumble.


But take a look at today's candlestick pattern. A honkin' big hammer. That spells short term bottom to me.

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hefeiddd

But take a look at today's candlestick pattern. A honkin' big hammer. That spells short term bottom to me.


The NASDAQ 100 is extremely close to the make-or-break point for bears. Crossing above the line shown here would spell bad news for at least a little while for the bears.


Hilton (HLT) caught my eye today as a short candidate.


As did NOV, which is in my (obviously) favorite pattern, the H and S.

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As did NOV, which is in my (obviously) favorite pattern, the H and S.


For those skeptical about the still sky-high REIT market (in spite of all the bad real estate news), take a look at SPG.


at 9/25/2006 52 insightful comments
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Labels: indu, mee, oex, oih, oil, oil services, osx, qqqq, spg, spx


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Saturday, September 23, 2006The Case for a Double Top
It wasn't a bad week. The bulls wanted this to be The Week of New Highs, but it was not to be. The more we can take away a new prize for the bulls, the more discouraged they will get. Which, let's face it, is all they deserve.

Oil is tantalizing close to an all-out breakdown on OIH. Within pennies, really. I like what I see.


As I look at the major U.S. stock indexes, I see some pretty big double tops. Could they be rendered moot by a pierce through to new highs? Of course. But if the earnings season, starting in early October, disappoints, we may have already seen the highs for quite a while. Here's the Dow, which got within spitting distance of a lifetime high this week.


The oft-ignored but still important Dow Utilities (interest-rate sensitive) likewise has a double top, although not quite as clean.


The S&P 500 is of particular interest to me since I own so many puts on it. I'm feeling pretty good about where this index is positioned.


Here are all the positions I've got that will fit onto on screen. I manage four accounts, two of which are shown here. Every one of these has a sizeable put position. God help me. (As always, since these images can be illegible, click on 'em to see a bigger, more readable version, then click your Back button on the browser to return to this lovely little blog).




at 9/23/2006 35 insightful comments
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Thursday, September 21, 2006Stop New High Mania!
They just couldn't let us have a triple digit down day, could they? The Dow was down about 115 points earlier, but we closed down 80. Oh, well. Not a bad day, particularly since the media is all ga-ga over the possibility that the Dow is within spitting distance of an all-time high. It would be nice for that not to happen.

My portfolios were up today, but not as much as they might have been if oil had cooperated. OIH was up about 2% as oil and related companies tried to recover from its recent bashing.


The aforementioned $INDU gave back yesterday's gains and is clearly showing some respect for that trendline that it is under.


The $RUT is hopefully stuck in a rut. That horizontal trendline is the "throw in the towel" zone, and we do not want it to cross on the upside. This is a nice bearish engulfing pattern at this point.


More short ideas. Here's DST......

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More short ideas. Here's DST......


ESRX, offered up a week or two ago, is doing nicely.


As is NVR, also suggested a while back.


One I discovered today was Panera Bread, PNRA.


That's it for now. As always, good luck in your trading.
at 9/21/2006 31 insightful comments
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Wednesday, September 20, 2006Slippery Oil
For a Fed day, it was relatively peaceful. The bulls got virtually all their gains within the first half hour of trading today. Sigh. Oil saved my bacon again, though. It would have been a rotten day otherwise.

The highlighted area indicates the Fed zaniness. Usually the market goes stark raving mad after an announcement. This swing was actually really modest. I guess the lack of volatility has extended even to the most extreme of events. It was a snoozer, pretty much.


As I mentioned, oil (OIH in particular) continues to go great. We've got an honest to goodness breakdown, with a beautiful head and shoulders pattern, post-retracement, at this point. This is textbook perfect.


The gold and silver index, $XAU, seems a bit stuck at its retracement level. It is even more of a huge head and shoulders pattern than OIH, but it hasn't broken down yet.


The S&P had another strong day. Indeed, it's been disgustingly strong since mid-July. We haven't seen this much consistent strength since last autumn. We're either at a double top or - - with our luck lately - - we've got plenty of room left (green shaded area) on the upside. Oh, I'll mention this a hundredth time for those who missed it - - click on any image to see a bigger image.


The Russell 2000, on a long-term basis, is obviously far, far above its "Internet bubble" highs. It broke those long ago.

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The Russell 2000, on a long-term basis, is obviously far, far above its "Internet bubble" highs. It broke those long ago.


At this point, if it breaks through the horizontal line shown at 742.26, we're in even bigger trouble than we are already. That would be extremely bullish.


One stock I happened to come across today is CAL (Continental Airlines). Looks like another nice short/put-buying opportunity with a pretty low-risk stop price.


Things still haven't turned to the bear's favor. Not at all. I'm glad for OIH, at least. That, and a lot of related stocks, have been doing wonderfully poorly (which is good for the bears).
at 9/20/2006 57 insightful comments
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Tuesday, September 19, 2006Post Three Hundred



Oil Services Sector (OIH) was looking a little iffy yesterday as it retraced, but it still is behaving nicely. We want to break the level cited to make this an honest-to-goodness fall-from-grace from the head and shoulders pattern.





at 9/19/2006 28 insightful comments
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Monday, September 18, 2006Another Go-Nowhere Session
Snore. I think the last time the market had any real direction was several years ago. This is just a snoozer. I guess we are in yet another wait-for-the-Fed situation (they announce Wednesday at 2:15 EST).

Old hurricane5 favorite HANS continues to look nice as a long-term short play, which has worked its way back up to its fan line.


Same with hurricane5 favorite NTRI.


I retract my earlier statement that GOOG was stale. It seems to have some life in it again, although it's hardly the dynamo it used to be. Below is its entire history since the IPO.


I posted earlier today about gold and oil, so you might want to take a look. Until tomorrow, ta-ta........


at 9/18/2006 70 insightful comments
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