一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Thursday, September 07, 2006
Long entries like yesterday's take a lot of time, so I'm going to make it shorter today. I must say, it was heartening to see this headline at the top of Marketwatch:


So why not t-shirt, mug, or mouse pad to celebrate, eh?


This is anecdotal, but here in the Silicon Valley, the sky-high home prices are starting to look awfully toppy. I personally tried to sell my second home (a 1400 sq. ft. basic house on a 6000 s.f. lot) for $1.4 million. Guess what? No takers! What a surprise, eh?


This graph has been shown here umpteen times, but oil has been so good to me, I just have to keep showing it. It could do great things for us. But it needs to stay weak!


Lastly, here are positions from two of my accounts (I manage four accounts personally). All of 'em puts or shorts, of course!


Let's go for a three-peat tomorrow, OK?


at 9/07/2006 66 insightful comments
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Wednesday, September 06, 2006Failure to Launch
Today's entry is going to be a bit rushed since I've got a business meeting/dinner to rush to........but I can tell you I felt a lot better about today than I did about yesterday (and the thirty days preceding it...) I had my best percentage gain since July 21st, and weakness in oil was especially helpful. I think what the bulls had on their hands today was:


The Dow Industrials is reaching the apex of a triangle. Something has got to give. Either the bulls are going to pull strength out of some mysterious place I can't imagine (the discovery of $500 billion of gold underneath a South Dakota farm, perhaps?) or the bears are going to finally step up, as is their duty, and wipe out civilization. We're all waiting........


The NDX failed below its trendline today. This is not good for the bulls. They got it up, but they couldn't keep it up. One day does not a trend make, by any means, but today was owned by the bears. One day beats the hell out of none.


The Transports don't seem to be mounting a comeback. This is one of the few indexes in an honest to goodness bear market, and it looks like it's going to resume the swoon.


There is a possible H&S on the $XAU, but it's going to take quite a bit of luck. I've etched out a possible pattern here. As the highlighted area shows, there's plenty of work left to be done before we've got a complete pattern. But - - hope springs eternal, right, boys & girls?

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There is a possible H&S on the $XAU, but it's going to take quite a bit of luck. I've etched out a possible pattern here. As the highlighted area shows, there's plenty of work left to be done before we've got a complete pattern. But - - hope springs eternal, right, boys & girls?


The $XMI - the index that has been scaring me the most - has once again failed. It still has a chance of blasting into full bullish mode, but today didn't do the bulls any favors.


Now some choice stocks, all of which I own puts on, and which I offer as suggestions out of the goodness of my heart and a love for my readers. Black & Decker:


Cabot, which is getting zapped nicely:

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Cabot, which is getting zapped nicely:


EOG, which is doing terrific:


HAL, big Dick Cheney's old employer, which is also getting kicked sweetly:


Marathon Oil is doing terrific:

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Marathon Oil is doing terrific:


I'm on the fence about Sears. Yesterday I said bullish. Today I say bearish. I'm a capricious one, aren't I? This one could go either way. I own puts. There, I said it. I'm a bear on this one. But who knows?


SLB (I'm not even going to try to spell it) is also getting nuked beautifully.


And Textron - for all I know, they could be in the business of whoopee cushion distribution - - they're all just ticker symbols to me, people - - is a honey.


More days like today, please! I'm a lot more charming when I'm making money.

P.S. As for the recent "Best Financial Blogs" - I'm a touch offended! C'mon, Charles Kirk is a cool dude, and bless his heart for linking folks to our site sometimes, but Jiminy Cricket, this blog - if I may say so - kicks the ass of most of the other blogs mentioned.......and The Kirk Report makes every single "best of the blogs" list. Harumph. Well, maybe time will change things. TASC is going to feature this blog in October and November. There, rant is over.
at 9/06/2006 80 insightful comments
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Tuesday, September 05, 2006Living with Uncertainty
For those of you hoping to grab on to an anchor of confidence and certitude with today's blog entry, please look elsewhere. All the "shoulds" do not apply anymore. One person in the comment section has mentioned more than once, "The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." Hear, hear.

So many stocks have appeared to be in predictable bearish patterns, only to defy it and crack through any bearish predictions. Witness MBT.......


And MicroStrategy......


Lehman is another good example. Notice the area I've circled. That's the bears saying "I'm going to take you down" and, in response, the bulls say "oh, no you're not....." The bulls are extremely powerful for the past six weeks.


OIH looked like a slam-dunk head & shoulder pattern. Now it's looking like a tease.

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OIH looked like a slam-dunk head & shoulder pattern. Now it's looking like a tease.


The Russell 2000 is broad enough to give us a bit of perspective. We've come a long way up since the mid-July lows. We're in a middleground at this point. Are we going to push higher or resume the fall we started early in the summer?


A close-up of the RUT shows how the "lower highs" (good for bears) has given way to "higher lows" (bad.....). Mid-July was the turning point.


The NDX got up to its 50% retracement level today. If this strength continues, the green shaded area looks like cleaning sailing.

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The NDX got up to its 50% retracement level today. If this strength continues, the green shaded area looks like cleaning sailing.


The $OEX is very, very close to its former high from the summer. I keep wanting to ask this index, "aren't you tired yet???"


One small sign of encouragement is that, in spite of the summer being over as far as the financial markets go, the volume isn't anything to write home about. The steady softening of volume continues.


One potential put I will sheepishly offer is that of ESRX. Looks like a nice clean top pattern to me with a stop close enough to make potential losses minimal.


This "month of the bears" (September) has had two up days so far. Not so good, folks.
at 9/05/2006 70 insightful comments
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Friday, September 01, 2006Good Riddance, Summer!
Well, another hard session for the bears. I see a lot of bears throwing in the towels in the comment section. Sad, sad.

Well, let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Here's the $OEX. It's getting back to to a pretty major Fib retracement level. We are way below the all-time highs set back during the bubble, so there's a fair bit of overhead resistance. We did not, however, have a double top, as I speculated we might yesterday.


The $INDU had an especially strong day. We are just 300 points away from the all-time high set back in January 2000. Can you imagine the headlines if we got to a lifetime high? Jesus. Reporters are running around like crazy as it is just because we're at three month highs on the major indices.


The $SPX has done a yeomans's job fighting its way up the wall of worry. It's discouraging but astounding to behold.


I will now cast off everything I hold dear, grab an air sickness bag, and offer up the only charts I could muster that look bullish, at least for the short term. Here we go.

ALL:

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I will now cast off everything I hold dear, grab an air sickness bag, and offer up the only charts I could muster that look bullish, at least for the short term. Here we go.

ALL:


CP:


SHLD:


UNP:


The market hasn't been much fun to trade for bears since mid-July. It's been a real drag, actually, for six weeks now. If September - the month of the bears - doesn't turn things around in a major way, we should all sign the Declaration of Insanity that the rest of the world has apparently agreed to and just move on........
at 9/01/2006 43 insightful comments
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