一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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More short ideas. Here's DST......


ESRX, offered up a week or two ago, is doing nicely.


As is NVR, also suggested a while back.


One I discovered today was Panera Bread, PNRA.


That's it for now. As always, good luck in your trading.
at 9/21/2006 31 insightful comments
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Wednesday, September 20, 2006Slippery Oil
For a Fed day, it was relatively peaceful. The bulls got virtually all their gains within the first half hour of trading today. Sigh. Oil saved my bacon again, though. It would have been a rotten day otherwise.

The highlighted area indicates the Fed zaniness. Usually the market goes stark raving mad after an announcement. This swing was actually really modest. I guess the lack of volatility has extended even to the most extreme of events. It was a snoozer, pretty much.


As I mentioned, oil (OIH in particular) continues to go great. We've got an honest to goodness breakdown, with a beautiful head and shoulders pattern, post-retracement, at this point. This is textbook perfect.


The gold and silver index, $XAU, seems a bit stuck at its retracement level. It is even more of a huge head and shoulders pattern than OIH, but it hasn't broken down yet.


The S&P had another strong day. Indeed, it's been disgustingly strong since mid-July. We haven't seen this much consistent strength since last autumn. We're either at a double top or - - with our luck lately - - we've got plenty of room left (green shaded area) on the upside. Oh, I'll mention this a hundredth time for those who missed it - - click on any image to see a bigger image.


The Russell 2000, on a long-term basis, is obviously far, far above its "Internet bubble" highs. It broke those long ago.

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The Russell 2000, on a long-term basis, is obviously far, far above its "Internet bubble" highs. It broke those long ago.


At this point, if it breaks through the horizontal line shown at 742.26, we're in even bigger trouble than we are already. That would be extremely bullish.


One stock I happened to come across today is CAL (Continental Airlines). Looks like another nice short/put-buying opportunity with a pretty low-risk stop price.


Things still haven't turned to the bear's favor. Not at all. I'm glad for OIH, at least. That, and a lot of related stocks, have been doing wonderfully poorly (which is good for the bears).
at 9/20/2006 57 insightful comments
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Tuesday, September 19, 2006Post Three Hundred



Oil Services Sector (OIH) was looking a little iffy yesterday as it retraced, but it still is behaving nicely. We want to break the level cited to make this an honest-to-goodness fall-from-grace from the head and shoulders pattern.





at 9/19/2006 28 insightful comments
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Monday, September 18, 2006Another Go-Nowhere Session
Snore. I think the last time the market had any real direction was several years ago. This is just a snoozer. I guess we are in yet another wait-for-the-Fed situation (they announce Wednesday at 2:15 EST).

Old hurricane5 favorite HANS continues to look nice as a long-term short play, which has worked its way back up to its fan line.


Same with hurricane5 favorite NTRI.


I retract my earlier statement that GOOG was stale. It seems to have some life in it again, although it's hardly the dynamo it used to be. Below is its entire history since the IPO.


I posted earlier today about gold and oil, so you might want to take a look. Until tomorrow, ta-ta........


at 9/18/2006 70 insightful comments
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Just a quick intraday post.

Oil and gold are having a pretty big up day, which is no surprise considering how badly they've been pummelled in recent weeks.

Oil - more precisely, OIH, which I consider a proxy for the major oil services stocks - is doing a textbook retracement to its neckline. The bolder among us may want to short aggressively here. This is a gorgeous head and shoulders pattern. It's always scary shorting at a time like this, naturally, because there's a lot of strength. But retracements to necklines often represent the lowest-risk time to go short, since you've got a crystal-clear stop loss level in case you're wrong.


Gold ($XAU) is murkier. It was forming a head and shoulders pattern, but it didn't get back down to its neckline. In addition, the price has pushed its way to a major Fibonacci retracement level, which implied the selling was over for now. So I'm steering clear at this point.


At the moment, the stock indexes are showing a skosh of weakness in spite of earlier strength. Let's hope it continues until the close!


at 9/18/2006 6 insightful comments
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Friday, September 15, 2006Friday Follies
Greetings from downtown Palo Alto, heart of all things technical and headquarters of the world's wildest bear blog. Your host: Tim Knight.

Since July 18, the markets have been on a tear. A bullish tear. The kind we don't like. The Dow is up over 8%, as is the S&P 500. The NASDAQ Composite is up even more, over 13%. Not a pretty picture, people. And, except for the recent softness in gold & oil, it's been a really nasty market for us ursine types.

The $VIX has ground down to almost never-before seen levels of complacency. I'm just waiting for Wired to publish another "40 Years of Prosperity" cover stories again.


If you look at the VIX relative to the SPX, there's a pretty strong inverse relation. Not foolproof, certainly, but it's clearly there.


The Dow is within spitting distance of its lifetime high. Astonishing. The bulls have shown amazing strength.


If you look at the $OEX, and many other indices today, you'll see that it formed a shooting star candlestick. It's not an amazing one, and option antics probably had a lot to do with today's volatility. Hey, at least it didn't close at the highs! I'll take what I can get!


Oil, which has been very kind to us the past couple of weeks, paused for a rest today. The H&S pattern is complete, and it's in a position to get really clobbered. But it's resting right now, deciding whether to recover some of its losses or resume the swoon.

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Oil, which has been very kind to us the past couple of weeks, paused for a rest today. The H&S pattern is complete, and it's in a position to get really clobbered. But it's resting right now, deciding whether to recover some of its losses or resume the swoon.


Looking at the $SPX, we are right at the median channel line. In the past (circled red areas) it has been able to cross above this and push higher. If it can't manage to do it this time, they could provide us some much-needed relief.


Even more exhausted than the OIH is the $XAU (gold/silver index), which has beautifully come back to its Fibonacci retracement. This could be a reversal area. On the other hand, a massive H&S pattern has formed. I am steering clear of this at this time, although there might be some fireworks here next week.


The $XMI, like several other indices, also formed a shooting star. This has, however, broken out of a nice dish pattern (which is good for the bulls).

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The $XMI, like several other indices, also formed a shooting star. This has, however, broken out of a nice dish pattern (which is good for the bulls).


Let's look at some of my favorite short positions right now. Allegan (AGN):


Apache (APA):


Carnival Cruise (CCL):

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Carnival Cruise (CCL):


Express Scripts (ESRX):


Lehman (LEH):


NutriSystem (NTRI):

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