一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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CMI which, umm, looks just a little overbought, wouldn't you say. I mean, God almighty, just look at this thing.


CTX.......


DE, which I'm not zany about, but seems vulnerable enough......


IWM, which is the ETF for the Russell. A convergence seems to be approaching.

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IWM, which is the ETF for the Russell. A convergence seems to be approaching.


Lehman (LEH).....


LEN.....


Our old friend OIH which, I confess, could go up. But I'm betting down. I'd say a stop at $131 would make this a relatively low risk/high reward trade.

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Our old friend OIH which, I confess, could go up. But I'm betting down. I'd say a stop at $131 would make this a relatively low risk/high reward trade.


Redback is something that I'm long. Goes against ever fiber in my body, I know, but it is one of the few decent looking bullish plays I see.


I will now grab my mango-infused rum, kneel down on the floor, and pray to the bearish God in heaven to smite those who keep pushing the market higher. Our time will come. Let's just hope we're not all wearing barrels by the time it does.

at 10/13/2006 22 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, $spx, $xau, aapl, agn, ba, cmi, de, iwm, leh, len, new high, oih, rbak, vix


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Thursday, October 12, 200612K for the Sake of 12K
Have you ever heard the saying about how someone is famous for being famous? Sort of like George Hamilton......well it seems to be the market is heading for 12K (on the Dow) just for the sake of hitting 12K.


The past three months have been agonizing, horrible, devastating, and just plain terrible for the bears. The bullish march has been relentless. Just look at the 60 day intraday graph of the SPY. It's basically like someone laid down a ruler and took it straight up with almost no interruptions.......


Looking at the daily graph, with a channel laid down on top of it, you can see the market is way, way, way at the tippy-top of the channel. Does it mean there is a law written somewhere that it has to fall now? Ummm, no. I think we've seen how respectful prices are of these channels! But it still seems more likely to be lower in the next few months than higher.


All the same, the power of the bulls has been something to behold. I wish I could show you some great bullish charts with terrific breakout patterns, but I can't. This is a momentum market. Things are super high, and they are going super-higher. Sorry. I have no charts to share with you today.


at 10/12/2006 41 insightful comments
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Labels: new high, spy

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叱诧风云











Wednesday, October 11, 2006La De Da
It seems a tiny passenger plane accidentally running into an apartment building has more import to the world financial markets than a crazed dictator with nuclear arms. Go figure.

I thought we had 'em today, but the plunge protectors (or whoever.....) pushed most of the losses off the Dow. Phooey.

I had a great day with Legg Mason (LM) and, generally speaking, things were pretty good. I humbly offer up a few suggestions for shorts/puts, simply because I'll never wise up........

Alcan (AL), a lovely head and shoulders pattern....


Alexandria Real Estate - - many REITs have similar charts (symbol ARE):


Cleveland Cliffs (CLF), a nice Fib setup:


Lehman (LEH):

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 15:29 编辑 ]

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Lehman (LEH):


Nike (NKE) way at the top of what looks like a massive distribution:


Textron (TXT):

Nothing to say about the markets that I haven't already said. Best of luck to ya.
at 10/11/2006 31 insightful comments
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Labels: are, clf, leh, lm, nke, txt

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A rare morning post. Trying to shake off the blahs.

I got a nice surprise this morning when one of my put positions, Legg Mason, fell over $16 right at the open. Disappointing earnings. May many other companies follow suit! This chart is a nice example of a price breaking its trendline, doing a full retrace (noted with a circle here), and then taking a swan dive. Love it.


I'm in a ton of different positions - almost all of them puts, with a smattering of energy-oriented longs (by means of call positions). Capital One (COF) is one of the puts. Looks like a clean retracement to a broken inverted saucer.


Panera (PNRA) is still on my list to take a tumble. My brother actually owns one of these franchises, so I've got nothing against the company. I just like the chart.




at 10/11/2006 24 insightful comments
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Labels: broken trendline, cof, ken brockman, lm, pnra


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Tuesday, October 10, 2006The Grind
Another economy riddled with holes. Another market high. So it goes, so it goes.

I'm afraid as I lose interest in this market you're going to see shorter and less fervent blog entries. When the market's in a tailspin, we have a great time in here. As it is now, the market is a grind, and I'm really sick of it.

Few graphs capture the boredom of the market (for the bears, at least) like the VIX. It's like a terminally ill patient drifting off into a permanent sleep.



I like Fibonacci drawings, and some charts tend to be more 'Fib Friendly' than others. Take MCK for example. The fans seem to do nicely here.


SHLD, which I've been watching a long time, broke above a gorgeous cup with handle pattern. Umm, obviously not a great short idea now. This is just about picture perfect.


I'm sorry it's not a more interesting post today. I don't have much to say except that I sure miss June and early July. It's so bad, in fact, I think this is the first time I've ever done a post before the market even closed!


at 10/10/2006 18 insightful comments
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Labels: fibonacci fans, malaise, mck, new high, shld, vix

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Monday, October 09, 2006Even a Bomb Can't Stop the Bulls
Set aside all the dogma. All the points of view. All the rationale. It boils down to this simple fact:

The mentally-unstable leader of a country widely recognized as one of the most hazardous and threatening in the world successfully deployed a nuclear bomb.

And how did the market react? It went up to its highest point in human history (as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average).

Something is very wrong here. I can't explain it, and I certainly can't fight it. I'm sick of it, but that obviously matters not a whit. I haven't thrown in the bear towel yet, but it's definitely balled up in my right hand, and my right arm is extended behind my ear, ready to hurl it.

In the meantime, I've been scaling out of short/put positions (including indexes) and moving into long positions. I do this with some trepidation, especially considering how in relative terms the market seems so high these days. Take note of this Dow 30 chart (in spite of the Dow's pushing a bit above the upper resistance line):


One recent suggestion that did quite well was Express Scripts (ESRX) which has been falling nicely (I've circled the point where I suggested it as a short).


Google, mentioned last week as a long, is likewise prospering. I'd add to this "the market is insane!" notion the fact that they just spent $1.6 billion on a company which has never made a single penny of profit and is threatened on many sides with horrendous potential legal action.


US Steel, also mentioned as a long candidate (at the circled area) is also on the rise.

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US Steel, also mentioned as a long candidate (at the circled area) is also on the rise.


I don't have time for a long entry today, but I'll reiterate that BLUD looks sweet as a long. It had another good day today. This is a beautiful saucer pattern, folks.


at 10/09/2006 28 insightful comments
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Labels: esrx, goog, kim jong il, new high, nuclear bomb

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