一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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Lehman (LEH):


Nike (NKE) way at the top of what looks like a massive distribution:


Textron (TXT):

Nothing to say about the markets that I haven't already said. Best of luck to ya.
at 10/11/2006 31 insightful comments
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Labels: are, clf, leh, lm, nke, txt

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A rare morning post. Trying to shake off the blahs.

I got a nice surprise this morning when one of my put positions, Legg Mason, fell over $16 right at the open. Disappointing earnings. May many other companies follow suit! This chart is a nice example of a price breaking its trendline, doing a full retrace (noted with a circle here), and then taking a swan dive. Love it.


I'm in a ton of different positions - almost all of them puts, with a smattering of energy-oriented longs (by means of call positions). Capital One (COF) is one of the puts. Looks like a clean retracement to a broken inverted saucer.


Panera (PNRA) is still on my list to take a tumble. My brother actually owns one of these franchises, so I've got nothing against the company. I just like the chart.




at 10/11/2006 24 insightful comments
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Labels: broken trendline, cof, ken brockman, lm, pnra


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Tuesday, October 10, 2006The Grind
Another economy riddled with holes. Another market high. So it goes, so it goes.

I'm afraid as I lose interest in this market you're going to see shorter and less fervent blog entries. When the market's in a tailspin, we have a great time in here. As it is now, the market is a grind, and I'm really sick of it.

Few graphs capture the boredom of the market (for the bears, at least) like the VIX. It's like a terminally ill patient drifting off into a permanent sleep.



I like Fibonacci drawings, and some charts tend to be more 'Fib Friendly' than others. Take MCK for example. The fans seem to do nicely here.


SHLD, which I've been watching a long time, broke above a gorgeous cup with handle pattern. Umm, obviously not a great short idea now. This is just about picture perfect.


I'm sorry it's not a more interesting post today. I don't have much to say except that I sure miss June and early July. It's so bad, in fact, I think this is the first time I've ever done a post before the market even closed!


at 10/10/2006 18 insightful comments
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Labels: fibonacci fans, malaise, mck, new high, shld, vix

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Monday, October 09, 2006Even a Bomb Can't Stop the Bulls
Set aside all the dogma. All the points of view. All the rationale. It boils down to this simple fact:

The mentally-unstable leader of a country widely recognized as one of the most hazardous and threatening in the world successfully deployed a nuclear bomb.

And how did the market react? It went up to its highest point in human history (as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average).

Something is very wrong here. I can't explain it, and I certainly can't fight it. I'm sick of it, but that obviously matters not a whit. I haven't thrown in the bear towel yet, but it's definitely balled up in my right hand, and my right arm is extended behind my ear, ready to hurl it.

In the meantime, I've been scaling out of short/put positions (including indexes) and moving into long positions. I do this with some trepidation, especially considering how in relative terms the market seems so high these days. Take note of this Dow 30 chart (in spite of the Dow's pushing a bit above the upper resistance line):


One recent suggestion that did quite well was Express Scripts (ESRX) which has been falling nicely (I've circled the point where I suggested it as a short).


Google, mentioned last week as a long, is likewise prospering. I'd add to this "the market is insane!" notion the fact that they just spent $1.6 billion on a company which has never made a single penny of profit and is threatened on many sides with horrendous potential legal action.


US Steel, also mentioned as a long candidate (at the circled area) is also on the rise.

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US Steel, also mentioned as a long candidate (at the circled area) is also on the rise.


I don't have time for a long entry today, but I'll reiterate that BLUD looks sweet as a long. It had another good day today. This is a beautiful saucer pattern, folks.


at 10/09/2006 28 insightful comments
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Labels: esrx, goog, kim jong il, new high, nuclear bomb

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Friday, October 06, 2006Bear Goggles
Lest anyone think otherwise, rest assured my bearish view on the market is still quite intact. It's been frustrating. It's been hard. It's been expensive. But I look at a lot of charts, and I am still absolutely convinced there's a lot more potential on the downside than the up. I guess I'm wearing bear goggles.

Take a look at one simple chart - the SPY. You can see the channel. You can see the median line. Now, regardless of whether you're a bull or a bear, tell me something: based on the behavior of the past two years, do you think it's more likely this will be lower or higher a few months from now? (dramatic pause) That's what I thought.


RIMM is looking sweet. It's got a beautiful shooting star candlestick pattern, and I think we can all agree this has had a fast, furious run-up in price.


For balance, I offer something that looks like a good buy. The symbol is BLUD. This is a solid looking pattern.


Here's to a better week next week, ladies and gents. This one can soon be forgotten.


at 10/06/2006 27 insightful comments
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Thursday, October 05, 2006What Does It Mean?
Another new high on the Dow today. I'm as confused as you are.

I was amused to see the cover story on Newsweek. For contrary thinkers out there, maybe this is another sign that oil's recent plunge is done for now and you should go bullish. I certainly have.


The recent breakout in the Dow leaves us thinking: what does it mean? Two possibilities are (1) a sustained, meaningful breakout, past 12,000 and beyond; or (2) a fake breakout.

I was looking at a century-looking chart of the Dow 30, and I saw something fascinating. Check this out (clicking on the image for a bigger version):


As you can see by the circle, there was a breakout in 1972. The pattern is similar to what we're seeing today. A long struggle to get past a major milestone (back then, it was Dow 1,000 as opposed to Dow 11,750). It broke out in Autumn - just like now - and it pushed the Dow up another 4% or so until January. Then, voom, it started plunging hard.

Does that mean this is what will happen this time? I don't know. Maybe. But it at least proves that a new breakout, even on a major index, doesn't guarantee a sustained movement to the upside. Here's what our own market looks like in the present day:


I was disappointed - very - that one of my last holdouts, Russell 2000, pushed through resistance today. As prior breakouts indicate, this could be very bullish for this index. I've shaded in green the movement following similar breakouts. I'm no longer in this position and currently am holding a mixed bag of puts and calls (the latter being mostly in energy).




at 10/05/2006 33 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, breakout, fibonacci fans, new high, oil

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Wednesday, October 04, 2006Pain in 3-D
"That's why I'm looking this bull straight in the face and laughing at it. Savor the moment, pal. You're about to get wasted."


But this is something to keep in mind - - I can deal with getting blown out of positions. But I don't hang on. That's why I say, over and over - always have a stop in place. Always! Take PNRA, for instance. I bought puts on it. Some people said I was wrong to do so. Turns out they were right. That's fine. I can deal with the loss. But if I had just hung on (past the circled point, where I got pushed out of the position), now that would be stupid.


As enamored as I've been with OIH shorts, I closed out my energy shorts today, including OIH. I think the selling in energy and gold is really overdone. There are hammer patterns all over the place today!

So I'm going to blow away my reputation as a permabear by offering what I think are interesting stocks to consider buying (yes, buying) or buying calls on (that's right - I said calls). I still have lots of put positions, and plenty of shorts. But there's no denying the force of buying at this point. (By the way, the meaning of the 3D in my subject title today means 3 Digits - - a triple point rise in the Dow). And so I offer these tickers for your consideration. The stop prices should be pretty obvious........(and I've included volume where I think it's important):

Google (GOOG) which looks like it's pushing through a medium term trendline.


HOV:


HRS:

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HRS:


JEC:


MEE, which was a great short for a while and now seems to be firming up:


MLM:

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MLM:


NEM which is a good play on a bounce in gold:


NOV:


OII:

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