一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Perversely, in this bearish blog, my "long" suggestions are doing great. Once again, the hotties are Redback Networks (RBAK):


Sears Holding (SHLD):


and Immucor (BLUD):


I am having absolutely no fun in this market at all. You can tell by my posts. I hate not understanding a market, and I absolutely do not understand this one. Not a great thing for me to say in my own blog, but that's the truth.
at 10/26/2006 25 insightful comments
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Labels: $spx, blud, iyr, new high, rbak, real estate, rhat, shld

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Wednesday, October 25, 2006Perpetual Motion Machine
I won't bore you. Same old story. New high. Relentless bulls. Bears being turned into hamburger. Not good.

I noticed early on Wednesday that the S&P was approaching its 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (as measured from the peak in January 2000 to the trough in October 2002). It doesn't necessarily represent a brick wall. There have been times that the index has blasted right through it. However, there does tend to be some gravitational pull near these retracement levels. Examine how it's behaved in the past.


Some readers have noticed how ungodly high the RSI has become on the market. They're right. Take a look at the Dow 30 over the past few years. I've highlighted in green the places where the RSI has gone over 70 (it's in the unprecedented 80+ vicinity right now). I've highlighted in pink the places where it's gone below 30. Interesting just how long we've been above the 70 level this time.


Here's a long (yep, long) idea to consider - AEE.


Another short idea - Nasdaq (NDAQ).

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hefeiddd

Another short idea - Nasdaq (NDAQ).


I also like BXP as a short.


As well as CBE.


I've mentioned Redback (RBAK) as a good long position. Just look at the swelling of volume. Very impressive.

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hefeiddd

I've mentioned Redback (RBAK) as a good long position. Just look at the swelling of volume. Very impressive.


Don't underestimate how far a stock can fall once it starts falling. Take Getty Images (GYI) for instance. Sometimes stocks can receive blow after blow. Although not shown here, the graph for ESRX will show something similar.


at 10/25/2006 20 insightful comments
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Labels: aee, bxp, cbe, fibonacci, fibonacci retracement, gyi, ndaq, new high, rbak, rsi


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Tuesday, October 24, 2006The Tireless Bull
Each day seems to bring more of the same. The market jumps down. Firms up. Dances around the +0 net change all day long. Then does a late day surge. It's teasing the bears. And the bulls don't seem to be getting tired.

One silver lining to this very big cloud is that the leadership is thinning. Take the NASDAQ 100 for instance. In spite of the Dow making lifetime new highs virtually every day, this index has been a laggard. It was even down a decent amount today.


As you can see by the chart of SPY, the market is ahead of itself. It has "overshot" the channel, just like it "undershot" it early on.


Worth considering as a short - Adobe (ADBE):


Another candidate - Allergan (AGN):

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 10:41 编辑 ]

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Another candidate - Allergan (AGN):


I suggested Checkfree (CKFR) earlier this month, and it's getting smashed in after hours trading today. Nice to have a bright spot in this horrible market.


Health Net (HNT) is another short candidate.


And, lastly, Textron (TXT):


I've noticed in the comments section (which is much quieter now that the anomymous people are locked out) that people sometimes append their ideas with "do your homework" or "do your due diligence" or something else along those lines. Let me save your typing fingers - - you don't need to say such things. The whole idea behind charting is that whatever knowledge the market has is already built into the chart.

Does anyone really think that by puttering around the net they are going to uncover some explosive new information about a stock, be it good or bad, that it absent from the minds of the collective body that trades it? If so, have at it. I personally think you're wasting your time.

To everyone who has survived so far - my hat's off to you. This sucks!
at 10/24/2006 19 insightful comments
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Labels: $ndx, adbe, agn, ckfr, hnt, spy, txt

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Monday, October 23, 2006The Stampede Continues
Another day the bulls owned the bears. Big time. Google blasted toward $500 to a new record high. The Dow was up over 100 points early in the day and closed at a new all-time high. These are the times that try bears' souls. Assuming there are any bears even left.

Russell 2000 remains on my list of favored indexes to short (for those still insane enough to do so):


Capital One Financial (COF) is still on my favorites list (again, short).


Fluor (FLR) is doing relatively well (once again, bearish position) considering the market's strength.


I think NBL for a short position related to the oil markets.

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I think NBL for a short position related to the oil markets.


Same applies to old favorite Oil Service Holders (OIH) which has a nice clean stop price for limited risk:


Another oil shortie, OII:


For a long position, think about Red Hat (RHAT) which has gorgeous volume to boot:

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For a long position, think about Red Hat (RHAT) which has gorgeous volume to boot:


I finally (!!!) bought Sears (SHLD) today and am already in the green. Beautiful pattern here.


TSO is another short idea.


And, although higher risk than OIH, similar logic applies to shorting $XAU:


This is a rushed post, since I'm off to a business dinner. Considering how high the market is, my portfolio is pretty well intact. Hang in there, everybody.
at 10/23/2006 10 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, cof, flr, nbl, new high, oih, oii, rhat, shld, tso, xau


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Friday, October 20, 2006What a Week
This was quite a week. 12,000 pierced. A close above 12,000. It even managed to end the week above 12,000 (by 77/100ths of a point. Blowout earnings from GOOG. And a tidal wave of earnings reports, few of them shockingly bad.

If there's an opposite of fear and panic, we have it right now. The VIX pushed even below the trendline I drew for it a while back. These are epic low levels of complacency in the market.


Someone asked yesterday in the comments section about where I place stops. It depends on the chart. There's no set percentage or anything. That would be arbitrary. Take LLL, for instance, which I own puts on right now. I have an order to sell the puts at the market price if the underlying stock goes above 80. It's not based on a formula. It's based on the chart, and every chart is different.


I'm still 99% short right now (with a fair bit of cash on the sidelines), but here's a couple of long ideas for you. There's Redback Networks (RBAK):


As well as Sears (SHLD), which I've bashed for the longest time, but I cannot help but admire its gorgeous pattern. This has got to be the most perfect cup-with-handle pattern I've ever seen. It's beyond me why everyone on the planet would suddenly start buying their leisure suits and knit pants at Sears, but the chart doesn't lie.


I haven't indiscretely shown my positions in a while, so they are below (those that will fit on the screen, anyway; I ran out of room). As always, click on the picture (and any picture on this blog) to see a bigger version.




at 10/20/2006 33 insightful comments
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Labels: lll, positions, rbak, shld, vix

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