一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

ESRX:


MBT:


MOT:


Tomorrow morning the CPI figure and Housing Starts are released at 8:30 EST. Given today's excitement over what appears to be an ease in inflation, it will be interesting to see if the bulls add to today's gains or if we're still stuck in up/down/directionless mode.
at 8/15/2006 190 insightful comments
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Monday, August 14, 2006Fade Away, Again & Again.......
We once again pull out our friend Bob Dole to represent today's action, which is great for us bears. A huge, instant, triple-digit rally followed by a spirit-crushing fade. Huzzah! Another great day on the market. Oil being down hard was helpful, too.


On a daily basis, we've got a nicely formed shooting star. I'll say what I've said so often already - until we break below 10,660, all this shouting about ups and downs is just for fun. We're not in a bull market OR a bear market. We're in a farting-around market, and I'm sure we'll all be glad when we finally get direction (It'll come one day, trust me!)


The reduced tensions in Israel caused oil prices to ease, which did great things for my dozens of oil service-related shorts and puts. The OIH is still a head and shoulders in the making (not completed yet), so, again, it's nice to see it sink, but it's not party time until it breaks that neckline.


The S&P chart doesn't look so different from any of the other major indices - a shooting star, more or less. The bulls are surely frustrated, since they can't seem to make any rally stick. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will have some key interest-rate data, so that should make things interesting.


I'm about to hop aboard a plane (again....) so I'll sign off. Good one today, bears!


at 8/14/2006 113 insightful comments
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Friday, August 11, 2006What a Week.....
The week started with hand-wringing and anticipation about the Fed's announcement on Tuesday. By the end of the week, terrorist fears had people asking "Bernanke who?" It seems like a hundred years ago already.

I've been bellyaching a lot, but I've actually had six profitable days back-to-back, so I guess I should cheer up. I remain confounded at the market's curiously positive reaction to the horrible terror threat, but Friday seemed a little more in touch with reality.

We haven't looked at the Dow 30 in a few days. This is a bit of a wider field. Not much has changed here. The golden number is still 10,660. We can't really start to take over earth until this is broken. Until then, we're just kind of jerking around.


The S&P, like the MidCap and the Russell 2000, is at a bit of a juncture right now, although it seems to be tipping downward. I actually - gasp - bought a bunch of MidCap calls (yes, calls) early today, but I dumped 'em at a loss later when it was clear no rally was going to take place. Things are still mushy, slightly favoring the intelligensia (da bears).


The gold & silver index finally started weaknening again. If this starts to gather speed, it'll be terrific, because this could shape up into a marvelous downward pattern.


Starting with Bed, Bath, and Beyond, here's a slate of cool looking short possibilities. I've got 80 - yes, I can hardly believe it myself - 80 different positions. Out of these 80, 80 are bearish and 0 are bullish. So I guess you can say I've got a slight bearish disposition.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

BBBY:


BBD:


CERN:


CME:

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hefeiddd

CME:


DNR (what a ticker symbol, eh?):


HAL:


HLX:

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hefeiddd

HLX:


MBT:


SPG:


UBB:


Hope you have a good weekend and don't waste it on something as lowbrow as a golf game. Ta-ta...........
at 8/11/2006 72 insightful comments
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Thursday, August 10, 2006What's It Gonna Take?


It took me one glance at one chart early in the day to know there was trouble. This is the S&P 400 MidCap (daily basis), and as you can see by my mark-up, we are not in the series of lower highs and lower lows that we need. This sucker seems to be strengthening.


I've bombarded you guys with enough charts over the past few days. I'm going to go stew for a while.


at 8/10/2006 77 insightful comments
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Wednesday, August 09, 2006More of What We Want
Today's action is exactly what we want to see. Good news in the market. Excitement. A big up opening. Chip, chip, chip away at it. And wind up with a big loss. Perfect. Even the commenters on this board were talking about an up day and a two day rally. Come on, folks! Are you kidding me? Cisco? Do you really think anyone cares about that dog anymore? How 1999!

A few have asked me to look at NILE. I did, and I moved on. It's an awful chart. I couldn't tell you whether it's going to go up or down. It's just a mess and not worth following.

Some people were puzzled at my dismissal of Cisco. Yeah, it's a big company, but so were Ford and GM. Cisco is yesterday's news. I mean, look at what it's done over the past two years. A 0% change. Wow, that's a barn-burner.


The Dow Transports got ripped today, and they are decisively below both a major ascending trendline as well as the Fib level. Nasty. Great for us bears, though, especially the Dow Theory fans.


Once again I offer a handful of my charts that I'm short (or, more likely, am long puts). This is just a smattering of my 50 or so positions. Here we go.....ATW:

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hefeiddd

Once again I offer a handful of my charts that I'm short (or, more likely, am long puts). This is just a smattering of my 50 or so positions. Here we go.....ATW:


BSC:


CERN:


CME:

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hefeiddd

CME:


COG:


DO:


FMX:


The key is to keep hacking away at the bulls, day by day. One day things are going to break hard. But we need to break their spirit first.
at 8/09/2006 110 insightful comments
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Tuesday, August 08, 2006Fed Day is Out of the Way
Well, today's post-Fed rally lasted about as long as a bull in bed: 30 seconds or so. These guys are such turds. They bid up the market like mad in anticipation of a pause. BFD. Is a slowing economy great news for earnings? The market is doomed, people. Get real.

Here's a minute by minute chart of the DIA. You can see the massive micro-rally take place here if you look really close:


The $VIX is well positioned for a long, meaningful upswing. That'll be great for the bears.


Oh, do you need a good contrarian indicator? Check out Business Week's cover story. It features this kid on the cover claiming he's made $60 million on his Internet idea. He hasn't. It's bullsh*t. The editors dreamed up some hypothetical value for his firm, multipled it by his stake, and came up with the figure. I have no doubt this chap will get rich, but isn't this jumping the gun a bit? Smells like 1999, doesn't it, folks?


I've got something like 50 positions in the market, all of them puts or shorts. There's no way I'm going to show you all the charts, but let me throw a few interesting ones your way. Setting a good stop price is going to be up to you.

CAM:


IPS:


LEN:

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