一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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LEN:


OIH:


PBR:


PD:


Oh, let's do a hurricane5 update. Nutrisystem - target price of $600 - current price today, after getting smacked over 7% - is $45.58. And Hansen - target price $120 - currently at $29.45. Way to go, 'cane. I wonder if he is lurking to see what people are saying. Nah, I doubt it. Way too painful.

Anyway, congratulations to all of us for having the brass nads to get through this ridiculous Fed nonsense. Now we can turn our attention back to grinding bulls into hamburger.
at 8/08/2006 95 insightful comments
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-9 22:57 编辑 ]

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Monday, August 07, 2006HANS & Fans
Let us all bow our heads for a moment of silence out of respect for fallen superstar HANS (long-time favorite of wayward poster hurricane5, who set a price target of $120 for this stock). At long last, this thing is getting clobbered.

HANS has fallen 40% in less than a month. Why, oh why, didn't they ever have options for this thing? Well, truth to tell, there were a few options, but just a handful, and the bid/ask spread was wider than Roseanne Barr's waist.

Anyway, here's a daily graph of HANS, accentuated with a Fibonacci fan (long term) and supporting trendline (medium term).


A closeup view of this stock indicates that, for now, we're close to a bottom. I've covered my short on this at a handsome profit. I think that, long term, the stock is headed way, way lower. But I'm happy to take my fat profits for the moment.


Few things in life are certain, but this is: tomorrow is going to be bananas on the market. Which is probably going to take a lot of the excitement and participation out of the market today. I probably won't have a heck of a lot to say until after this Fed madness is past us. We'll see.


at 8/07/2006 83 insightful comments
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Friday, August 04, 2006Why Is this Man Smiling?


The VIX has finally come alllllllllll the way back down to its trendline. It touched it perfectly this morning. All the fear seems to have been squeezed out of the market. The markets having everyone smoking ganja again. So puts are cheap.


The Dow 30 is, among the index charts, the most disappointing for a bear. If you look back at the chart I made of the Dow back on July 28th, you'll see that four out of the five "do not cross this level!" points have been blown through. Being beneath the ascending trendline (not numbered, but shown in the graph) is the last line in the sand to survive.


But the charts of the indexes - even the $INDU - still suggest the miniature rally we've been suffering through is over. All the indices are bumping up against trendlines that will be tough to cross. Here's the Nasdaq Composite:

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But the charts of the indexes - even the $INDU - still suggest the miniature rally we've been suffering through is over. All the indices are bumping up against trendlines that will be tough to cross. Here's the Nasdaq Composite:


The S&P 100:


The S&P 500:


The Dow Utilities may have put in a major double top (which is important, considering how key interest rates are in the market recently):

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The Dow Utilities may have put in a major double top (which is important, considering how key interest rates are in the market recently):


The the American Stock Exchange Composite - the $XMI - has, for the umpteenth time, made a run at its resistance level. I imagine it'll despair and fall away as it has so many times before.


I've been recommending shorting oil service stocks (OIH, DO, RIG, and so forth). Those are doing terrific. As is AAPL. If I get time, I'll do another post today or this weekend. Good luck! And here's hoping for a shooting star (or better...) today.
at 8/04/2006 71 insightful comments
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Thursday, August 03, 2006What the Health?
What a day.

It started off well enough, with the GLOBEX in the tank and an instant 50 point chop off the Dow. From that point until almost the end of the day, the losses got chipped away, and eventually the bulls took the upper hand and pushed the Dow up about 70 points. By the closing bell, the Dow closed up about 42. So they took another one away from us.

It seems the increasingly active 'comments' section of this blog has become a commiseration center for us bears. I can sympathize! It's frustrating and maddening to witness this market's continued strength. There are pockets of weakness - such as good old HANS finally getting kicked around some - but, by and large, the bulls are still running the show. (I don't get real hung up on conspiracy theories about the Trilateral Commission manipulating prices..........the fact is that virtually all investors out there are, by their nature, bullish, and that have a lot of money to push this market higher).

I've been very focused on the Dow, which has been relatively strong compared to the Nasdaq and S&P, and - unfortunately - it finally crossed above the "line in the sand". It doesn't mean the bear case is vanquished. It does mean, in the short term, that it holds less water. It would actually make a lot of sense if we had a big rally tomorrow, from a technical perspective. A crossover is a crossover, and there's no doubt prices violated this resistance line.


Looking at the minute-by-minute chart, you can see some very plain, broad Up and Down trends. The time is right for it to turn back down. But nowhere is it written that this up and down cycle will continue. The market should have started going down today (and, at first, it did), but the bulls overcame that weakness.


What never ceases to amaze me - and I mean this, because I've been doing trendlines forever - is how much power trendlines have. I mean, Good God, just look at it - once the price crossed above the trendline, it "obeyed" it beautifully, coming to a gentle rest at exactly the trendline. This will be the launching off point starting tomorrow morning after the jobs report (either up, which is sadly more likely, or down).


I humbly offer a few short suggestions for your consideration. Here's Motorola:

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I humbly offer a few short suggestions for your consideration. Here's Motorola:


Transocean (RIG), suggested earlier in this blog, which showed some nice weakness today:


And aging handsome dude Ralph Lauren:


Two big events are coming in the next three trading days: the jobs report (Friday, tomorrow) and the Fed (Tuesday). This is really our last, best hope to get the downward market we "should" get based on the market's behavior the past couple of months. If this strength continues, we're really going to have to re-evaluate.
at 8/03/2006 123 insightful comments
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Wednesday, August 02, 2006Drumming Fingers
My relationship with the market is pretty bad these days. I find it irksome and frustrating. Everyone seems completely obsessed with next Tuesday's Fed announcement. So everything is in kind of a weird holding pattern until then.

Just as yesterdays 100+ point drop got shaved before the close, today's 100+ point gain got shaved too. The Dow 30 is still below (but, again, just barely below) the "safety line" shown here in red. This is an agonizingly tight spot. If the market continues to be strong, it's going to completely screw up mid-term bearish arguments. If the market falls, it will be textbook technical analysis. But if we have strength, it's time to get out and get out fast.


During the peak today, I felt a lot of oil service stocks had really reached their limits, so I bought some more puts there. OIH softened up a bit. I'd still say $152 is a good stop loss point for OIH and, in principal, the component parts of it as well (at different prices, obviously).


The S&P 500 is clinging to that line like there's no tomorrow. Click on the image to see it more clearly. There's an ascending resistance line that the price is just smooching, day after day. It's kind of weird, I must say, but at least it's predictable for the moment.


If the markets move higher, I've got to believe $TRAN will be especially strong. It's had a horrible time recently, losing the equivalent of about 1,800 Dow points from its peak. But it's at two major support zones right now, and it could easily bounce higher from here given any general market strength.




at 8/02/2006 93 insightful comments
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Monday, July 31, 2006Wanted: Clear Direction. Please!
The Dow was down 34 points today. Big deal. This market is so boring these days. There's just no direction. A little tug up. A little tug down. Intraday graphs are like spasms. The S&P 500 is basically exactly where it was when 2006 began. It went up a while. Then it went down a while. And now it's up a little. Zzzzzzzzzzzz........

Oh, before I forget, this blog is now part of the Ticker Sense poll. Thanks, guys! Is there a way to auto-click the Bearish radio button?

If you have the time and the interest, here's a fascinating (and long) article about large economic trends, particularly centered around debt and interest rates. Bottom line is that a recession is virtually a foregone conclusion.

Oh, one other thing. By happenstance, I found this KlipFolio product. Download it - it's free! And you can add your favorite blog (ahem) to it.

I have two standards for judging new software: does it work right/feel right immediately out of the box (the answer for Klip: yes!) And am I still using it in a couple of weeks? (We shall see!) I've sometimes become jazzed about stuff that I never touch again. Which means, to me, it's not useful. Klip seems awfully cool, though.

OK, on to charts. And there's a bunch of 'em today. Because I've got to believe the market will eventually snap out of this boring funk. And, if there's a God (or at least a sensible God), the market will fall big-time. So let's be prepared, Scouts.

HANS has been fascinating to me for a long time. It has bagged a nearly 10,000% gain over the past couple of years, and I think everyone on the planet is waiting for it to snap at some point. Here's the astonishing graph. Some people have become very, very rich on this stock:


Let's take a closer look. This graph is more recent, and it features two moving averages on the price graph as well as a moving average on the volume graph. Notice a few things. First, volume is really starting to soften on this stock. Second, the 50 day moving average hasn't crossed below the 100 day moving average in a very long time. I'd take this as a strong sell signal if it does. To be honest, I'm short the stock already. I guess I (foolishly) want to get in early on what I hope will happen.


I want to put the S&P graph up again simply because it's so beautiful. You can see all the drawn objects I've laid down on this graph. It would take an amazing amount of bull power (you can think of a more colorful term) to turn this market decisively upward. But it's happened before. The jury is still out right now. There are many strong forces at work that could rip the guts out of this market.


From here on out are graphs with stop prices. Simple. I think all of the following charts are optionable, so you might want to pick up puts. The stop price I cite is the price above which the position should be closed. First up: AMG 95.05

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From here on out are graphs with stop prices. Simple. I think all of the following charts are optionable, so you might want to pick up puts. The stop price I cite is the price above which the position should be closed. First up: AMG 95.05


ATW 50.64


DIA 112.56


HUM 58.26

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HUM 58.26


IYR 75.02


MER 73.50


MO 81

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