一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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HAL:


MCK:


RIG:


XAU:


at 8/28/2006 17 insightful comments
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Friday, August 25, 2006How Many Ways to Say "Nothing"?
Each day I read fellow analysts Charles Kirk (of Kirk Report fame) and Michael Kahn (of Barron's fame). I notice they're in the same predicament I am.....how many different ways can one say, "there's nothing else I can say!" Posts are getting smaller and shorter every day!

Honestly, this has been a completely boring week. Everyone keeps saying all the traders are on vacation. Is that really the case? It's astonishing to me that an entire stock market can be so dulled by a portion of people taking their summer vacations. Oh, well. The volume is more telling than my opinion.

If a light strikes me this weekend and I think of some more good graphs to share, I will. In the meantime, here are a few interesting charts from my forthcoming book. Make of them what you will! (They're from the chapter on Head & Shoulders patterns)








at 8/25/2006 48 insightful comments
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Thursday, August 24, 2006A Watched Pot (Again)...
Oh my LORD the stock market is boring lately. Sheesh! I've elected to put up a YouTube movie of paint drying (with grass growing in the foreground) since it's more enticing.

So I'm just going to toss out some more interesting short ideas. The first of which, BBBY, I offered a few days ago, and it's started to leg dow nicely.


CAT (getting near the end, or a trendline break instead?)


CERN


MRO

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MCK


MSTR


at 8/24/2006 35 insightful comments
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Wednesday, August 23, 2006Are We Finally Turning Around?
Below is the intraday S&P 500. Does this look like a top to you? At least for the short term? I think so. I sure hope so. An honest to goodness down day was a pleasant change.


The $VIX has been ungodly low lately, and that also seems to be turning around. It sure makes put options cheap at these levels.


The Dow lost a little more than 40 points today. Looks like it's backing away from that ascending trendline.


The NASDAQ 100 bounced away from its own trendline beautifully......

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The NASDAQ 100 bounced away from its own trendline beautifully......


On a daily basis, the S&P 500 has been quite strong medium-term, but so long as that trendline holds, we've still got a bearish disposition on this one. As always, click on the image to see a much bigger one. This chart is loaded with embellishments, which I hope make sense to the most of you.


Gold hit a medium-term high today before turning around into a loss. This could turn out to be a beautiful short, but it's going to take a couple of months to see. It's been unpleasantly strong until today.


The $XMI has either hit resistance for the third time or is about to produce a marvelous breakout (for the bulls......) This could be a great cup with handle pattern, or we could simply be bouncing off that resistance line again.


Here are positions from two of my accounts (I've got others, but I couldn't fit all the symbols on the screen.......) This time I'm using symbols to make it easy on you.




at 8/23/2006 48 insightful comments
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Tuesday, August 22, 2006Socionomics and Frank Quattrone
For those who didn't notice, Frank Quattrone may seen a bit of a pattern here. When the market was insane and sky-high, Quattrone was a hero. When the market took a huge dump, he was a villain.

Indeed, do you want to know when his trial was? That's right - October 2003- the bottom of the market.

Now that the market is - yep - insane and sky-high again, society gives him a walk. Coincidence? I think not.


Also, a tip of the hat to The Kirk Report. I appreciate the mention!




at 8/22/2006 33 insightful comments
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Monday, August 21, 2006Empty Motion

And what's the most boring stock of all? How about multi-billion dollar powerhouse Google? This used to be all the rage. Now it's just sinking into a modest sine wave of nothingness. Look at the past ten months on a percentage scale, shown below. 0% change. Whoo-hoo!


Here are a few more short ideas on this otherwise ho-hum day........Adobe (ADBE):


AIG International (AIG):


Black & Decker (BDK):

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Black & Decker (BDK):


Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME):


And even Microsoft (MSFT) which seems to be bumping against the other side of its long-ago broken trendline.


at 8/21/2006 46 insightful comments
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Friday, August 18, 2006How Much Longer?
Strength begets strength. Today the markets continued to push higher. Most of the push was left for the end of the trading session - perhaps today being an options expiration was a factor here. In any case, thus ends a nasty week for the bears.

I wonder how long this push upward will continue. We are, across the board, getting to some dangerously high levels which, if pierced, stab at the heart of the bearish arguments. I feel as confounded as I was in 1999 when everyone on the planet seemed to be a bull.

Let's take a look at some major indices and how much room is left to surge on each before they do major damage to some bearish trendlines. First, the Dow Jones Composite. The rounded rectangle indicates how much wiggle room is left:


The NASDAQ Composite is basically out of room at this point. There's a tiny amount left between today's close and the resistance line.


The Dow has been pushing toward its resistance line. It's not even that far away from its all-time high. As long as we're below resistance, I'm relatively OK with it.


The NASDAQ 100 is completely out of room. If it pushes higher on Monday, that's going to demand re-evaluation.

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The NASDAQ 100 is completely out of room. If it pushes higher on Monday, that's going to demand re-evaluation.


The S&P 100 has been remarkably strong, and it is getting very close to its high set last May.


The S&P 500 is approaching a Fib retracement level.


Earlier today, the Gold & Silver ($XAU) looked fairly weak, but it regained strength and finished in a hammer candlestick pattern. This chart is looking very indeterminate at this point.

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