一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

HLX:


MBT:


SPG:


UBB:


Hope you have a good weekend and don't waste it on something as lowbrow as a golf game. Ta-ta...........
at 8/11/2006 72 insightful comments
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Thursday, August 10, 2006What's It Gonna Take?


It took me one glance at one chart early in the day to know there was trouble. This is the S&P 400 MidCap (daily basis), and as you can see by my mark-up, we are not in the series of lower highs and lower lows that we need. This sucker seems to be strengthening.


I've bombarded you guys with enough charts over the past few days. I'm going to go stew for a while.


at 8/10/2006 77 insightful comments
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Wednesday, August 09, 2006More of What We Want
Today's action is exactly what we want to see. Good news in the market. Excitement. A big up opening. Chip, chip, chip away at it. And wind up with a big loss. Perfect. Even the commenters on this board were talking about an up day and a two day rally. Come on, folks! Are you kidding me? Cisco? Do you really think anyone cares about that dog anymore? How 1999!

A few have asked me to look at NILE. I did, and I moved on. It's an awful chart. I couldn't tell you whether it's going to go up or down. It's just a mess and not worth following.

Some people were puzzled at my dismissal of Cisco. Yeah, it's a big company, but so were Ford and GM. Cisco is yesterday's news. I mean, look at what it's done over the past two years. A 0% change. Wow, that's a barn-burner.


The Dow Transports got ripped today, and they are decisively below both a major ascending trendline as well as the Fib level. Nasty. Great for us bears, though, especially the Dow Theory fans.


Once again I offer a handful of my charts that I'm short (or, more likely, am long puts). This is just a smattering of my 50 or so positions. Here we go.....ATW:

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Once again I offer a handful of my charts that I'm short (or, more likely, am long puts). This is just a smattering of my 50 or so positions. Here we go.....ATW:


BSC:


CERN:


CME:

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CME:


COG:


DO:


FMX:


The key is to keep hacking away at the bulls, day by day. One day things are going to break hard. But we need to break their spirit first.
at 8/09/2006 110 insightful comments
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Tuesday, August 08, 2006Fed Day is Out of the Way
Well, today's post-Fed rally lasted about as long as a bull in bed: 30 seconds or so. These guys are such turds. They bid up the market like mad in anticipation of a pause. BFD. Is a slowing economy great news for earnings? The market is doomed, people. Get real.

Here's a minute by minute chart of the DIA. You can see the massive micro-rally take place here if you look really close:


The $VIX is well positioned for a long, meaningful upswing. That'll be great for the bears.


Oh, do you need a good contrarian indicator? Check out Business Week's cover story. It features this kid on the cover claiming he's made $60 million on his Internet idea. He hasn't. It's bullsh*t. The editors dreamed up some hypothetical value for his firm, multipled it by his stake, and came up with the figure. I have no doubt this chap will get rich, but isn't this jumping the gun a bit? Smells like 1999, doesn't it, folks?


I've got something like 50 positions in the market, all of them puts or shorts. There's no way I'm going to show you all the charts, but let me throw a few interesting ones your way. Setting a good stop price is going to be up to you.

CAM:


IPS:


LEN:

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LEN:


OIH:


PBR:


PD:


Oh, let's do a hurricane5 update. Nutrisystem - target price of $600 - current price today, after getting smacked over 7% - is $45.58. And Hansen - target price $120 - currently at $29.45. Way to go, 'cane. I wonder if he is lurking to see what people are saying. Nah, I doubt it. Way too painful.

Anyway, congratulations to all of us for having the brass nads to get through this ridiculous Fed nonsense. Now we can turn our attention back to grinding bulls into hamburger.
at 8/08/2006 95 insightful comments
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-9 22:57 编辑 ]

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Monday, August 07, 2006HANS & Fans
Let us all bow our heads for a moment of silence out of respect for fallen superstar HANS (long-time favorite of wayward poster hurricane5, who set a price target of $120 for this stock). At long last, this thing is getting clobbered.

HANS has fallen 40% in less than a month. Why, oh why, didn't they ever have options for this thing? Well, truth to tell, there were a few options, but just a handful, and the bid/ask spread was wider than Roseanne Barr's waist.

Anyway, here's a daily graph of HANS, accentuated with a Fibonacci fan (long term) and supporting trendline (medium term).


A closeup view of this stock indicates that, for now, we're close to a bottom. I've covered my short on this at a handsome profit. I think that, long term, the stock is headed way, way lower. But I'm happy to take my fat profits for the moment.


Few things in life are certain, but this is: tomorrow is going to be bananas on the market. Which is probably going to take a lot of the excitement and participation out of the market today. I probably won't have a heck of a lot to say until after this Fed madness is past us. We'll see.


at 8/07/2006 83 insightful comments
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Friday, August 04, 2006Why Is this Man Smiling?


The VIX has finally come alllllllllll the way back down to its trendline. It touched it perfectly this morning. All the fear seems to have been squeezed out of the market. The markets having everyone smoking ganja again. So puts are cheap.


The Dow 30 is, among the index charts, the most disappointing for a bear. If you look back at the chart I made of the Dow back on July 28th, you'll see that four out of the five "do not cross this level!" points have been blown through. Being beneath the ascending trendline (not numbered, but shown in the graph) is the last line in the sand to survive.


But the charts of the indexes - even the $INDU - still suggest the miniature rally we've been suffering through is over. All the indices are bumping up against trendlines that will be tough to cross. Here's the Nasdaq Composite:

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But the charts of the indexes - even the $INDU - still suggest the miniature rally we've been suffering through is over. All the indices are bumping up against trendlines that will be tough to cross. Here's the Nasdaq Composite:


The S&P 100:


The S&P 500:


The Dow Utilities may have put in a major double top (which is important, considering how key interest rates are in the market recently):

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The Dow Utilities may have put in a major double top (which is important, considering how key interest rates are in the market recently):


The the American Stock Exchange Composite - the $XMI - has, for the umpteenth time, made a run at its resistance level. I imagine it'll despair and fall away as it has so many times before.


I've been recommending shorting oil service stocks (OIH, DO, RIG, and so forth). Those are doing terrific. As is AAPL. If I get time, I'll do another post today or this weekend. Good luck! And here's hoping for a shooting star (or better...) today.
at 8/04/2006 71 insightful comments
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Thursday, August 03, 2006What the Health?
What a day.

It started off well enough, with the GLOBEX in the tank and an instant 50 point chop off the Dow. From that point until almost the end of the day, the losses got chipped away, and eventually the bulls took the upper hand and pushed the Dow up about 70 points. By the closing bell, the Dow closed up about 42. So they took another one away from us.

It seems the increasingly active 'comments' section of this blog has become a commiseration center for us bears. I can sympathize! It's frustrating and maddening to witness this market's continued strength. There are pockets of weakness - such as good old HANS finally getting kicked around some - but, by and large, the bulls are still running the show. (I don't get real hung up on conspiracy theories about the Trilateral Commission manipulating prices..........the fact is that virtually all investors out there are, by their nature, bullish, and that have a lot of money to push this market higher).

I've been very focused on the Dow, which has been relatively strong compared to the Nasdaq and S&P, and - unfortunately - it finally crossed above the "line in the sand". It doesn't mean the bear case is vanquished. It does mean, in the short term, that it holds less water. It would actually make a lot of sense if we had a big rally tomorrow, from a technical perspective. A crossover is a crossover, and there's no doubt prices violated this resistance line.


Looking at the minute-by-minute chart, you can see some very plain, broad Up and Down trends. The time is right for it to turn back down. But nowhere is it written that this up and down cycle will continue. The market should have started going down today (and, at first, it did), but the bulls overcame that weakness.


What never ceases to amaze me - and I mean this, because I've been doing trendlines forever - is how much power trendlines have. I mean, Good God, just look at it - once the price crossed above the trendline, it "obeyed" it beautifully, coming to a gentle rest at exactly the trendline. This will be the launching off point starting tomorrow morning after the jobs report (either up, which is sadly more likely, or down).


I humbly offer a few short suggestions for your consideration. Here's Motorola:

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