一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Friday, July 21, 2006End of a Terrific Week
I never thought I'd declare a week in which we had a +212 up day on the Dow to be "terrific", but it has been. In spite of the (idiotic) one-day rally based on Bernanke picking his nose, or whatever he did to get the bulls excited, I had my single best percentage gain of all time on Thursday, and overall the week was really profitable for me. I think that speaks to the overall deterioration of the market. If a bear can make a bunch of money in a week that sported such a huge rally (and don't forget the +51 up day on the Dow on Tuesday), something's going right.

I have almost 100 - yes, one hundred - short and put positions right now. Not one stinking long in the bunch. And I think all but one or two are showing a profit. I'm not going to assail you with more stock charts. Indeed, my "pictograph" posting seemed to get a lot more comments and attention than my huge slew of charts. So I'm going to refocus on the market in general this time.

Oh, by the way, I just got a sneak peek at what the cover of my forthcoming book is going to look like. Ya'll are all going to be required to buy this once it's out, ya know!


The first chart is of the Dow Composite (symbol $COMP - and, gotta say it, click on an image to see a much bigger version). This one is fascinating because the reference line for the Fibonacci Fans drawn here - - ummm, I just realized how boring this description would be. Suffice it to say these are not trendlines, and I'm kind of blown away at how accurate these fan lines turned out to be, considering the reference line is nowhere near them. The price is definitely playing with the idea of cutting underneath that highest fan line.


Next is the Dow 30, and I know you've seen this chart a million times. But we have got to cut underneath 10,660. That huge green shaded area represents the last, best hope of the bulls to keep this market floating. If we can get the Dow beneath that level, we're gonna own 'em.


The S&P 500 is in the lower half of its ascending channel, and it's look very interested in pushing beneath recent lows. If it breaks under that ascending support line, things are going to get really exciting. We are still within this channel, however.


The Transports actually look like they could take a rest for a bit. They are approaching both a pretty substantial trendline as well as a Fib retracement level. So it wouldn't surprise me to see the Transports bounce a bit soon here.

hefeiddd

1111111111

hefeiddd

The Transports actually look like they could take a rest for a bit. They are approaching both a pretty substantial trendline as well as a Fib retracement level. So it wouldn't surprise me to see the Transports bounce a bit soon here.


And, finally, a recent favorite $XAU (Gold & Silver index). This is similar to the Oil Service Sector (beaten to death this week, so I shan't be showing that chart again), except that the head and shoulder is still in formation. (As for OIH, it sneaked beneath its neckline today). This looks like a honey.


I promised this week would be exciting, and it was. Next week is bound to be the same. And just remember, we're moving closer all the time to that wonderfully bearish month of September! Oh, by the way, if the Dow does break under that green area, I'd say we're headed for about 9,800. Should be a fun ride.
at 7/21/2006 24 insightful comments
Links to this post




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

1111111111

hefeiddd

Thursday, July 20, 2006Charts for Yer Shorts
This one's simple, folks. I've got puts on all these. And I love 'em. Enjoy.

APA:


BNI:


CX:


DO:

hefeiddd

11111111

hefeiddd

DO:


EOG:


HNT:


MRO:

hefeiddd

111111111

hefeiddd

MRO:


MON:


NXY:


OIH:

hefeiddd

1111111111

hefeiddd

OIH:


PBR:


$XAU:


Cheers.

hefeiddd

11111111

hefeiddd

Wednesday, July 19, 2006Massive Sucker Rally!
For all those who think I'm a permabear, I want to point out that last . And wow, what a bounce it was. Up over 212 points on the Dow. Yuck!

This is soooooo typical of a rally in a bear market. It's fast and furious. I hate days like this, believe me, but it's all part of the unwinding. Bernanke goes in front of Congress to yack a bit, and people go haywire. Bulls will take any excuse to buy.

Here's the Dow - I've pointed out with the up-facing red arrows where the Dow has found support. The area shaded in green highlights in more. It made for formidable support this time. We have got to break through this level to get serious, bears!


Here's a close-up of the same chart. I'd say the circled area is about as high as it's going to be able to make it (11,150 or so). If it busts above it, I've got some more thinking to do!


Gold still looks like a solid H&S in the making:


And the S&P 500 looks like it's retracing to a short-term trendline.


As is so often the case these days, I've got a plane to catch - but I just had to post a few remarks after today's madness!


at 7/19/2006 24 insightful comments
Links to this post





Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

111111111

hefeiddd

Wednesday, July 19, 2006And There's Our Bounce!
On July 15th I wrote that a bounce seemed quite likely. It took a couple of days, but, voila, it's finally here.


At first the SPX bounced perfectly off its Fibonacci retracement. It seems to have goosed past this for now. To me, this means only one thing: another shorting opportunity. I'd eagerly short as the Dow gets close to 11,000 again.


By the way, congratulations to any YHOO put owners out there - what a day!


at 7/19/2006 42 insightful comments
Links to this post




The area is green represents major support for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.


If it breaks below 10,660, it's party time, bears. Even I am surprised how flaccid this "bounce" is. YHOO reports after hours. That's bound to give us some fodder for either direction.


at 7/18/2006 12 insightful comments
Links to this post




Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

11111111111111111

hefeiddd

Monday, July 17, 2006Oil Your Shorts
Wow, was that the rally? Maybe, maybe not. Perhaps it's just more basing behavior before we push higher.

Good bear that I am, I couldn't bring myself to go long. The bounceback seemed horribly flimsy. And with 8 points on the board at the end of the day it seems that, for today at least, the bulls haven't seized control back yet.

One relatively safe haven, I think, for shorts is in the oil services sector. Oil has obviously been on a tear for a couple of years, although this  helps put it in perspective. But the per-barrel price of crude is sky high:


In spite of this, when I look at the oil services sector (in this case, OIH) I see a head and shoulders pattern shaping up. I must state once again that a pattern in formation is not the same as a completed pattern. One shouldn't normally jump the gun. But if you set your stops tight enough, this might be worth a look. It may seem hard to believe, but if the H&S pattern breaks beneath its neckline, the target zone is that area wayyyyy down in blue.


Let's look at what I think are some juicy opportunities in stocks related to oil. Many of these have puts available, or you could just do a straight short sale. We have Atwood Oceanics (ATW):


Cleveland Cliffs (CLF):

hefeiddd

11111111111

hefeiddd

Cleveland Cliffs (CLF):


EOG Resources (EOG):


Frontier Oil (FTO):


Massey Energy (MEE):

hefeiddd

1111111111