一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Earlier today, the Gold & Silver ($XAU) looked fairly weak, but it regained strength and finished in a hammer candlestick pattern. This chart is looking very indeterminate at this point.


The $XMI pushed to a new medium-term high today, exceeding the high set last May. This, among all the charts, looks the most bullish. Last May, however, you could have said the same thing, and that was the high water mark.


See you after the close on Monday - - - although the market couldn't care less, I hope next week is better than this one!
at 8/18/2006 92 insightful comments
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Thursday, August 17, 2006A "Relief" of a Rally

I've looked at hundreds of charts (as usual) today, and in spite of all the hand-wringing yesterday, my belief is that the bulls have pretty much shot their wad as of today. It's been very rough for us bears of late, but I think we may be at a turning point.

My first indication was this morning. Even though the market was up nearly 50 points (again.....) I noticed just about all my portfolios were showing nice profits. Part of this was due to the weakness in oil, but the fact is that the rally was losing its breadth. The only number that matters, after all, is the Profit/Loss column each day, and when that's green, I don't really care what the market is doing. The fact that the market's surge withered away to a 7 point gain today was obviously a relief.

Below is the minute-by-minute chart of the Dow 30 over the past sixty days. I've highlighted the "higher highs" that have been happening for most of that time, connecting them with arrows. My sense is that this is a high-water mark. A very strong Friday tomorrow would absolutely flabbergast me. (Could happen - never say never!)


Oil is still teasing us with a head and shoulders pattern in-the-making. Of course, until that neckline is broken, which may or may not happen, this pattern doesn't mean squat. I'm still short a lot of oil/oil service positions, so I'm jumping the gun, I confess. It's got to push through the area I've highlighted in yellow, and then it's going to get the crap kicked out of it.


I'm only going to post one stock chart today - SHLD. This has all the markings of a beautiful cup with handle pattern that is failing. A failed bullish pattern makes a fantastic bearish pattern.


Below is a compilation of the items I am probably going to buy puts on as well as my current short/put positions. Not a long in the bunch.


Let's hope tomorrow is a good day to an otherwise crummy week!


at 8/17/2006 98 insightful comments
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Wednesday, August 16, 2006What a Drag..........
Dear Readers,

I gotta level with ya, it is not fun to write this blog in this kind of environment. Another nearly triple-point rise today. Ugh. I notice the comments section has gone stark, raving mad - nearly 200 comments. If the market had been slammed today, I'd love to go check out the comments. As it is now, I'd rather not see what people are saying!

Well, as has been pointed out by readers before, there is no right or wrong in the market. There is simply the market. It seems hard to believe that less than a month ago (July 18th) we were flirting with breaking Dow 10,660 and heading into a major descent. Seems like a million years ago, doesn't it? Sad. My only hope is that my emotions tend to inversely correlate to the bearish prospects of the market. I'm feeling like crap, so maybe we're at a turning point, eh? Or maybe not.

The $INDU has risen to the point where it's become very demoralizing for the bears. There's really no "line in the sand" left to speak of. If the high set today is crossed anytime soon, the only goal left to conquer is the high set back in May (and, if that is crossed, the all-time high set in January 2000). The Dow "should have" (definitely in quotes....) resumed its fall where the green arrow is pointed (remember, click any image to see a much bigger image). But the bulls grabbed this ball and ran with it.


The NASDAQ 100, like many other indexes, is just underneath its former support line. There is a chance (hope springs eternal!) that this could be a turning point, since the former support is now resistance.


The S&P 100 is in a similar position.


Here is a heavily marked-up S&P 500 chart. We're still in the lower half of the channel that extends back for quite some time. I'm not exactly sure what to make of this graph, except that it sure was more fun to be a bear from June 1 to July 15 than it is now.

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Here is a heavily marked-up S&P 500 chart. We're still in the lower half of the channel that extends back for quite some time. I'm not exactly sure what to make of this graph, except that it sure was more fun to be a bear from June 1 to July 15 than it is now.


The Dow Utilities are looking pretty toppy right now.


The Amex Major Market ($XMI) looks like it's making another serious attempt at a breakout. The last time it did this, marked in yellow, it failed. We shall see if it fails again or pushes off to blast away from this consolidation zone.


The energy shorts I've got were just about the only bright spot in my portfolio today. There is some weakness here, and this is about the only graph I can point to as looking really primed for a fall.


What a bummer of a day. Yuck!
at 8/16/2006 175 insightful comments
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Tuesday, August 15, 2006It Sticks/This Sucks
Ouch. The bulls finally got what they've been wanting: a large rally which lasted through the end of the trading session. No more "pop and drop" today! It was nasty.

Below is the minute bar graph of the S&P 500. There was a solid lift right from the opening, and it basically gained strength from there. At one point it looked like a repeat of yesterday, with a triple-digit rally fading quickly, but it recomposed itself and squeezed a lot of bears out of the picture. Again, ouch.






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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-9 15:50 编辑 ]

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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-9 15:51 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

The $VIX is extremely low right now, virtually at a record low. This indicates widespread complacency among traders. Generally speaking, no one is fearing a fall.


I've still got a few charts up my sleeve though. For your consideration, here are some possible short candidates. First, Aetna (AET):


CERN:


ESRX:

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ESRX:


MBT:


MOT:


Tomorrow morning the CPI figure and Housing Starts are released at 8:30 EST. Given today's excitement over what appears to be an ease in inflation, it will be interesting to see if the bulls add to today's gains or if we're still stuck in up/down/directionless mode.
at 8/15/2006 190 insightful comments
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Monday, August 14, 2006Fade Away, Again & Again.......
We once again pull out our friend Bob Dole to represent today's action, which is great for us bears. A huge, instant, triple-digit rally followed by a spirit-crushing fade. Huzzah! Another great day on the market. Oil being down hard was helpful, too.


On a daily basis, we've got a nicely formed shooting star. I'll say what I've said so often already - until we break below 10,660, all this shouting about ups and downs is just for fun. We're not in a bull market OR a bear market. We're in a farting-around market, and I'm sure we'll all be glad when we finally get direction (It'll come one day, trust me!)


The reduced tensions in Israel caused oil prices to ease, which did great things for my dozens of oil service-related shorts and puts. The OIH is still a head and shoulders in the making (not completed yet), so, again, it's nice to see it sink, but it's not party time until it breaks that neckline.


The S&P chart doesn't look so different from any of the other major indices - a shooting star, more or less. The bulls are surely frustrated, since they can't seem to make any rally stick. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will have some key interest-rate data, so that should make things interesting.


I'm about to hop aboard a plane (again....) so I'll sign off. Good one today, bears!


at 8/14/2006 113 insightful comments
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Friday, August 11, 2006What a Week.....
The week started with hand-wringing and anticipation about the Fed's announcement on Tuesday. By the end of the week, terrorist fears had people asking "Bernanke who?" It seems like a hundred years ago already.

I've been bellyaching a lot, but I've actually had six profitable days back-to-back, so I guess I should cheer up. I remain confounded at the market's curiously positive reaction to the horrible terror threat, but Friday seemed a little more in touch with reality.

We haven't looked at the Dow 30 in a few days. This is a bit of a wider field. Not much has changed here. The golden number is still 10,660. We can't really start to take over earth until this is broken. Until then, we're just kind of jerking around.


The S&P, like the MidCap and the Russell 2000, is at a bit of a juncture right now, although it seems to be tipping downward. I actually - gasp - bought a bunch of MidCap calls (yes, calls) early today, but I dumped 'em at a loss later when it was clear no rally was going to take place. Things are still mushy, slightly favoring the intelligensia (da bears).


The gold & silver index finally started weaknening again. If this starts to gather speed, it'll be terrific, because this could shape up into a marvelous downward pattern.


Starting with Bed, Bath, and Beyond, here's a slate of cool looking short possibilities. I've got 80 - yes, I can hardly believe it myself - 80 different positions. Out of these 80, 80 are bearish and 0 are bullish. So I guess you can say I've got a slight bearish disposition.

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BBBY:


BBD:


CERN:


CME:

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CME:


DNR (what a ticker symbol, eh?):


HAL:


HLX:

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