一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

Friday, November 03, 2006Sub-12K. Tim Says Yay.
The Dow was able to close for ten days in a row above the 12,000 level. Not today, though. We're back into 11,xxx territory. Let's hope it stays that way! For years!

As usual, I've got a number of charts to share with you that you might find of interest. First up is a long (you heard right) suggestion, symbol CRR. Looks pretty battered to me, and the swell in volume recently indicates a possible change in direction.


Now onto more familiar territory - the shorts! Here's FMX:


LLL looks good:


I like how MCK is playing against these Fib fans:

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I like how MCK is playing against these Fib fans:


MTW looks like a good double top:


NVR is thinly traded, but a good topping pattern:


Finally, these's QQQQ. Check out the similarity between the two sections of the RSI indicator. To me, this suggests the QQQQs (and, therefore, the $NDX) are headed much lower.


at 11/03/2006 18 insightful comments
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Labels: crr, fmx, lll, mck, mtw, nvr, qqqq

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hefeiddd

Thursday, November 02, 2006Five in a Row
Five down days on the Dow in a row. Nice. Let's hope for a sixth tomorrow. A solid week of downers would be sweet. Of course, all eyes are on the election next week. The market can have perverse and surprising reactions. A huge victory for the Dems would supposedly damage the market. But let's remember Clinton's 1992-2000 tenure wasn't exactly bad for stocks.

My $MSH puts are slowly gaining strength. There's a lot of room to tumble, but there's no earnest downward momentum yet.


The same holds true for the Russell 2000 ($RUT). Today's "spinning top" candlestick pattern indicates uncertainty.


For anyone bearish on gold, check out AEM. It looks really vulnerable to a swing down.


FCX is a great put play, since it's got a tight stop and there's so much room on the downside. Plus the supporting trendline seems to have been pummelled into irrelevance.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

FCX is a great put play, since it's got a tight stop and there's so much room on the downside. Plus the supporting trendline seems to have been pummelled into irrelevance.


HYDL is a honey of a head and shoulders pattern. Full retracement has been completed.


Retailer Nordstrom (JWN) has decidedly busted through its supporting trendline and is high enough to be a relatively safe play.


lufk


The fog will hopefully clear by next Wednesday. Thanks for taking the time to stop by.
at 11/02/2006 10 insightful comments
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Labels: $msh, $rut, aem, fcx, hydl, jwn


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hefeiddd

Wednesday, November 01, 2006333
OK, I'm starting to enjoy the market again. Four down days in a row. Granted, only two of them were worth anything (today and last Friday), but I'll take what I can get. Red on the screen, and I'm a happy guy.

Today was actually my second-best day ever in percentage terms, and it wasn't even down that dramatically. It's finally becoming clear to the public that the economy is faltering. Bring on some more of that! I guess I'll only regret it when I try (again) to sell my second house here in Palo Alto, The market has become mushy around here, and I gave up selling it a few months ago. I was going to try again in spring, but if things keep going this way, I may wind up as a landlord far longer than I ever intended.

Many months ago I suggested ESRX as a short. It's worked out nicely. It never violated the stop price I suggested, and those owning puts have made out like bandits.


The NASDAQ is looking particularly squishy these days, which is terrific. Take a gander:


Similar action is on the $NDX. You can see a nice progression of lower highs here, and today's downdraft was a monster bearish engulfing pattern.


Also take note of just how quickly the air has come out of the S&P's RSI indicator. It's fallen from nosebleed levels to well under the important 70 line. Let's keep beating the spirit out of these bulls, guys 'n' gals. Shake them and break them.

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Also take note of just how quickly the air has come out of the S&P's RSI indicator. It's fallen from nosebleed levels to well under the important 70 line. Let's keep beating the spirit out of these bulls, guys 'n' gals. Shake them and break them.


I loaded up on $XAU puts early today, when it was high. It closed pretty much unchanged. This isn't a clean head and shoulders pattern per se, but it's got the markings of one. I like it.


The Fib Fans on ADSK are charming, to me, and it's got a nice, clean stop. Ummm, keep in mind that tight stops can get ignored by giant gaps up, such as I experienced with Cigna (CI) today. It basically opened at its high and fell the rest of the day. Grumble. But I digress.


I've been holding AGN puts for a while. Nice one.

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I've been holding AGN puts for a while. Nice one.


For those wanting to take advantage of the sky-high REIT market, may I direct your attention to ARE?


ATI looks to have put in a lovely double top.


Capital One (COF), mentioned here on numerous occasions, is behaving like a good boy should.

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hefeiddd

Capital One (COF), mentioned here on numerous occasions, is behaving like a good boy should.


NOV is a nice play on the OIH drop.


Finally, someone mentioned US Steel (X). I bought puts on this a couple of days back. I like what I see here.


In closing, I just want to say thank-you for the thank-yous. There are a lot of nice notes in the comments section, and believe me, I don't do this blog for the money (averting eyes....) I do it for the love! So I appreciate the nice words.
at 11/01/2006 12 insightful comments
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Labels: adsk, agn, are, ati, cof, compq, nasdaq, ndx, nov, spx, xau

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hefeiddd

Tuesday, October 31, 2006Trick......or Treat?
What a roller coaster of a day. I thought we bears were going to get a real treat (Dow was down over 50 points) but it turned out to be more of a trick (market went positive before the close, and finally settled down only 11 points). Here's a line chart of the action over the past few days on the Dow. Totally direction-free. What a mess.


I continue to tout the Russell 2000 as a good place to own puts if you think the market is going to fall. It's got a super-clean stop price too. Puts on this aren't heavily traded, but the bid/ask spread isn't too godawful.


The Transports are looking ready to begin a fresh descent. I like this progression of lower lows and lower highs. A clear tumble here would spook all the Dow Theorists pretty badly.

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The Transports are looking ready to begin a fresh descent. I like this progression of lower lows and lower highs. A clear tumble here would spook all the Dow Theorists pretty badly.


Bear Stearns (BSC) isn't in any textbook bearish pattern, but the puts on these will have a lot of juice if the steam ever starts to come out of this stock. It is high enough to make this a relatively low-risk/high reward trade.


A more conservative trade would be along the lines of Cigna (CI). I would buy puts many months in the future on this one, since a gigantic insurance stock isn't going to be horribly volatile.


Earnings season isn't providing the kind of clarity/direction I was hoping. Bulls and bears are both losing their minds in this market. So we wait.
at 10/31/2006 18 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $rut, $tran, bsc, ci

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 10:26 编辑 ]

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