一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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Part of the profits stem from the fact that the volatility exploded higher. So the value of the options pushes up both intrinsically and from a time-risk perspective. Just look at this jump in the past few days.


I can't shake the $XAU as a short pick. It has come full circle back up to the retracement level shown here.


One last index to look at - the $XMI. It has tumbled quite a bit the past week. Breaking the line shown here would put a nail in the bullish coffin for this sucker.


My LEH puts are doing fine. Looks like some serious failure happening here.

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My LEH puts are doing fine. Looks like some serious failure happening here.


Last week I pointed to HLT as a choice short pick. So far, I nailed the top.


AKAM isn't anything to write home about, but it's not bad for a short. I see some serious weakening happening here.


NVR is thinly traded, but it's a fun short on days like this. It can lose 20 or 30 points in one session.


This week is going to be full of economic data. Today's weak retail report was the first gift we needed. Santa, bring us more!

at 11/27/2006 19 insightful comments
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Labels: $vix, big down day, hlt, leh $xau $indu $spx $msh

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Friday, November 24, 2006No Rest for the Wicked
Most bloggers are taking today off. Not me! Although today's entry will be on the short side.

The US dollar, as you probably know, got punched in the nose, and that had pre-opening GLOBEX good and red. The market opened lower, spent most of the time climbing up to trim those losses, and then finally stumbled again in the end (incredibly). The intraday minute bar chart of the $INDU suggests we might have a small top on our hands. But we've certainly been faked out before. Many, many times.


The Dow Transports seems to be cooperating with a bearish outlook. The descending trendline you see is still being respected. Unlike the $INDU graph, this is on a daily basis.


I had puts on the $XAU that got promptly closed at the opening bell due to a surge in gold's value. A look at the $XAU shows that this may still ultimately form a head and shoulders pattern, it certainly isn't as clean a trade as it once was.


Since commodities are such a major part of the investment scene these days, let's take a quick look at a couple of influential ones. First, copper. This is a long term (multi-decade) chart. I think anyone would agree copper is in a weird no-man's-land at this point, having ascended to never-before-seen levels. Unlike stocks, commodities tend to revert to norms over time. Don't you think something looks kind of out of whack here?

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hefeiddd

Since commodities are such a major part of the investment scene these days, let's take a quick look at a couple of influential ones. First, copper. This is a long term (multi-decade) chart. I think anyone would agree copper is in a weird no-man's-land at this point, having ascended to never-before-seen levels. Unlike stocks, commodities tend to revert to norms over time. Don't you think something looks kind of out of whack here?


Crude Oil, on the other hand, seems like it's positioned to move higher. We've had some relief, moving down from $75 to about $58 per barrel. But oil bulls may find themselves in a good position, in spite of the still relatively high price of fuel.


Hope you enjoyed your Thanksgiving, and I'll see you after the closing bell on Monday!
at 11/24/2006 37 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $tran, $xau, copper, crude oil


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Wednesday, November 22, 2006Giving Thanks (for nothin!)
Mr. Market (the cornball term I see used in other blogs about the stock market) hasn't been kind to us bears for the past five months. Today was sort of a do-nothing day, although the Dow managed to eke out another 5 point gain. I imagine this Friday's half-day will be equally as thrilling, if not moreso.

I marked up the Russell is kind of an interesting way. Check out what happens after each breakout. I'll leave it to you to draw your own conclusions. Hopefully my mark-ups will be helpful to you in your own analysis.


The $XMI, whose breakout really presaged a lot of the recent strength, is clearly losing steam here.


I've got a few ideas to throw your way. Here's AEM, which is a nice play on shorting gold.


BZH is actually a long idea (bullish) that I've offered before; here's an updated chart.

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hefeiddd

BZH is actually a long idea (bullish) that I've offered before; here's an updated chart.


GS continued to be very strong today. But check out the volume. Looks like this is being pushed up by less and less strength.


Hilton (HLT) seems to be nearing the underside of its trendline. I've pointed out the various times it has "bounced" off this trendline (for both upward or downward motions).


SHLD remains a gorgeous cup with handle pattern. Amazing how far this company has come from its near-bankruptcy.

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SHLD remains a gorgeous cup with handle pattern. Amazing how far this company has come from its near-bankruptcy.


A short play on energy is probably better realized via XLE as opposed to OIH, the latter of which is a mess right now.


I appreciate all the nice comments lately. It's encouraging to get such positive feedback. Many thanks, and - - miserable market aside - - I hope everyone enjoys a feast tomorrow with those for whom they care.
at 11/22/2006 25 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, $xmi, aem, bzh, gs, hlt, shld, xle

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Tuesday, November 21, 2006Grind
These days I tend to be alternating between longish posts (like yesterday's, which caused quite a stir) and short ones (like today's). I just can't speak at great length about a market which nudged up another five points.

The time around Thanksgiving is usually given to upward movements. People get excited about a pleasant family holiday, I suppose. It will take virtually no strength to nudge the markets into new highs again.


The Russell 2000 is much the same picture. Like the Dow, it is positioned to make not just multi-year highs, but lifetime highs. *Sniff*.


There's no denying it, Google (GOOG) is a gorgeous chart. I mentioned this a while back, as I suggested GOOG for a long position. This company seems to be enjoying the "perfect storm." As with all things, it will stumble someday. Maybe next year. Maybe ten years from now. Who knows. But at the moment, it's the company that can seem to Do No Wrong.


Below is GS. I have nothing particular to say about it, either long or short. But I think the chart speaks volumes about this market. A huge, well-known investment bank up over 100% in just over a year. And virtually a straight line up since the middle of this year. Breathtaking.


I'm moving more and more into cash and more and more resigned to hang up my trading for a few months. It doesn't necessarily mean I'll hang up the blog. But this market is a little too bewildering to trade.


at 11/21/2006 28 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, $spx, goog, gs, new high

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Monday, November 20, 2006Single Digit VIX
The market fell today, which was a welcome change, particularly since it looked early on that we'd have yet another record high on our hands. The market "felt" different today, as there was no late-day rush by the bulls to push it upward. The bears were (just a tiny little bit) in control for a change.

The $VIX, the market's measure of volatility (and, indirectly, complacency) fell to an unheard-of low beneath 10. We are now in single digit territory, which means that puts have a historically very modest time premium. Buying puts today is a relatively inexpensive exercise, although obviously the intrinsic value still plays a big role here! But you can see just how sharply the VIX has plunged.


There is a review of this blog coming out in the December Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine. I got an advance copy, and it's a very nice review. One of the things it points out is how this blog is really meat & potatoes, not straying into rhetoric but focusing on charts.


The Russell 2000 remains my favorite index candidate for shorting. I bought a block of puts today (January expiration) on this, with a stop at any price above 795. It's a relatively low risk trade.


The S and P 500 ($SPX), shown in candlestick form here, had a perfect doji pattern today. This is a statement of uncertainty. The market finally took a pause, in spite of a lot of bullish news about massive mergers, both real and contemplated.


The Dow Transports continues to be in a rather bearish pattern. You can plainly see the series of lower lows and lower highs illustrated here, along with a nice complement of Fib fans beneath the current price levels.

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The Dow Transports continues to be in a rather bearish pattern. You can plainly see the series of lower lows and lower highs illustrated here, along with a nice complement of Fib fans beneath the current price levels.


Gold shot higher early today, but it weakened throughout and actually closed down (when I say 'gold', I am typically speaking of the $XAU index, not the commodity gold itself). I remain long the puts on this index.


FCX, the purchaser of PD (whose puts I got blown out of this morning at the pathetic price of a nickel each!) sank on the day. I continue to like this chart, in spite of the mauling I took with PD!


Here is Frontier Oil, which appears to be forming a head and shoulders pattern. I'll say again that patterns in formation aren't patterns at all - - merely potential ones. Those among you more comfortable with risk may consider this as a short.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 06:28 编辑 ]

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