一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

The $OEX is sporting a big ol' hanging man for today. These don't happen that often. Just try to find another one that's even close on this chart. These usually suggest tops. Of course, we're in a market where bad news is good news and good news is great news, right? So - - the hanging man will probably muscle the noose off his neck, jump to the gallows, and start twirling around with an exciting Up With People dance.


As I've mentioned, the Transports are the only really bearish index with us, and it continues to behave nicely. Thank you, Mr. Rail.


Just to get an idea of the quagmire the market is in, look at the American Stock Exchange Major Market Index. Four days in a row of virtual carbon copies. Booooooooring!


I haven't shown my positions in a while. I've trimmed this a lot from the days of holding eighty positions! I'm much more into cash now, as this market continues to idiotically lurch higher.

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hefeiddd

Now - some individual stocks. Conoco (COP) seems to be a safe bet, as it is at the top of a well defined trading range. As always, though, upside breakouts can and do happen! So be careful.


This one isn't a short or a long - just kind of a puzzler. One of the strongest stocks lately has been Campbells. That's right - soup. Consumer Defensive plays are all the rage, I guess. I guess I've been in the Silicon Valley too long. I find it curious how people can get all excited about someone who puts alphabet soup into a can and sells it for 79 cents.


Google (GOOG), one of my more speculative put positions, is weakening a touch. Using my employer's "three arrows" method, we can see here that we've got a triumvirate of down arrows.


Goldman Sachs is my favorite investment bank short right now.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

Goldman Sachs is my favorite investment bank short right now.


Heinz is another one of those "huh?" stocks, like Campbells. Ketchup. I guess it's all the rage.


MDC has retraced to its neckline nicely. I don't love this enough to make a position out of it, but it's well worth considering.


Merrill Lynch is a sky-high pattern which I've also secured as a short position.

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hefeiddd

Merrill Lynch is a sky-high pattern which I've also secured as a short position.


Meritage (MTH), mentioned here many times in the history of this blog, has also retraced to its neckline.


I have not touched OIH for a while. I had a great time with it during the summer. It seems to be at a real stalemate right now. We're all just watching it for a breakout in either direction. I am guessing down. Surprised?


Fred Hickey is one of the few gurus I really enjoy reading. He had

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塔林飞僧













sells at less than one times sales. Fred's calm assessment: Research in Motion's "valuation is certifiably insane!"

Lastly, Tesaro (TSO).


On what can we pin our dreams next? Crappy retail sales? That's tomorrow morning. Hope springs eternal in the bearish breast!

at 12/12/2006 12 insightful comments
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Labels: $msh, $oex, $tran, $xmi, copper, cpb, fed announcement, goog, gs, hnz, mdc, mer, mth, oih, rimm, tso


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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-6 10:14 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd

Monday, December 11, 2006Waiting on the Fed
Hi folks. It was another "watch the paint dry" kind of day on the market. The Fed announces its rate decision tomorrow at 2:15 EST. In the old days (a year ago or more....) this usually caused unbelieveable fireworks. With the market so tepid and boring now, it might be a relatively subdued session. But it's bound to be more interesting than today.






What didn't show up to the market today was any kind of excitement. Take a look at the $INDU - I've drawn a rectangle around the relatively tight 100-point range of the past couple of weeks. The market dipped below it for one brief shining moment, but generally speaking we've all been in a total rut since Thanksgiving.


The S&P is a similar story.


The $XAU is also in a pretty tight range. A clear move beneath this area would encourage gold bears. I sure wish the market - any market - would make up its mind. We're all just diddling around here.


GOOG seems to be in a quagmire around $485. If their quarterly earnings aren't sensational, that could be the catalyst for a nice move down. There is nothing terribly clean about this chart. The only thing it tells us is that the explosion up to $500 has abated.


Check out the monster divergence in Goldman Sachs (GS). What I like about the puts on these is that they could get some meat on them. Yahoo, for instance, is never going to have 40 or 50 points blown off of it, because it's only a $29 stock (peanut butter, anyone?)

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

Check out the monster divergence in Goldman Sachs (GS). What I like about the puts on these is that they could get some meat on them. Yahoo, for instance, is never going to have 40 or 50 points blown off of it, because it's only a $29 stock (peanut butter, anyone?)


My bullish case for NTRI was off the mark; the line I should have drawn is horizontal, not angled. I've reworked it below. As you can see, the price failed to clear above this line, and it took a pretty bad drubbing today.


See you on the other side of Bernanke. Let me know if you find that tape dispenser.
at 12/11/2006 19 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $spx, $xau, c3po, goog, gs, ntri

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Friday, December 08, 2006Similarities to Early December 2006
Pretty quiet day out there. With all the chatter about what this market is most like (and I've been as guilty of this as anyone else), I think we can all agree the current market most resembles December 2006. You never step into the same stream twice, right?

The Dow Transports is just about the only stock index behaving in a truly bearish fashion these days. Nothing dramatic, but it simply lacks the strength of the other indexes.


Something I've been shorting lately has been the $XAU. It's at a bit of a crossroads right now. It's not in a head and shoulders pattern in the traditional sense - - it has the rather gruesome formation of a shoulder, a head, and then two shoulders. Yuck. So it's really more like a price channel. And it's pretty much at the top of that channel now. I'd put a stop on this at $149.70.


Federal Express (FDX), obviously an important part of the $TRAN, is another short of mine. It seems sufficiently weak to hang on to.


RIMM, mentioned here earlier this week, has seem a decent swelling of volume during the recent selling. Stronger volume on downdrafts is what I want to see.


This was not a week of fireworks, to be sure. I feel like we're just going to wind down the near and it'll sputter to a stop. There won't be a lot of excitement until earnings season appears in mid-January. That, to me, is the only proximal event that might help us bears take charge again. At this point, it's somewhat of a stalemate.

Go find some mistletoe this weekend. Oh, and hey, do me a favor - - I'm thinking of having a little get-together in Second Life next week, just for the hell of it. Post a comment if you're interested. I'll post the Teleport SLURL here if I decide to do it.


at 12/08/2006 32 insightful comments
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Labels: $tran, $xau, fdx, rimm

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Thursday, December 07, 2006Making It Up to My Readers


Today was a nice (although modest) down day. Take a look at the Russell 2000, shown below (and, as always, clickable to be larger), which I've embellished a bit with some studies for those folks finding my graphs too plain. Examine the "waves" of the past, and notice how far the moving averages were at the peaks of those waves. Looking at the most recent data, the averages have never been farther apart.


The same can be said of the S&P 500. Just look how rapidly the index has ascended and how much distance is spread out among the averages. At the same time, look at the continuous softening of the RSI. Quite a divergence, wouldn't you agree?


The $VIX has finally gotten some legs. It seems to be pushing way higher, as the market seems to be not-quite-so-sure about the certainty of indexes rising every day of the year. And this is all in the context of the Dow 30 hitting a lifetime intraday high today!


Now, some specific stocks - most bearish, a few bullish. I've been terribly impressed with Akamai's (AKAM) strength. It seems to be defying any weakness right now. This is one of those stocks which, in 2002, you might have felt was doomed to bankruptcy. But it's been a barnstormer.


I must again offer Capital One Financial (COF) as a short suggestion. My puts on this are doing well, and I just really like the look of this chart.

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hefeiddd

I must again offer Capital One Financial (COF) as a short suggestion. My puts on this are doing well, and I just really like the look of this chart.


My small bearish position on GOOG is doing OK as well. I do not normally watch CNBC, but at the airport yesterday I saw they were doing a featured story called something like "Can Anyone Stop Google?" That's my feeling exactly. People seem to think Google is perfect and unstoppable. A good time to fade the market's disposition. Can you imagine the collapse when they make their first earnings stumble? Whether it happens next quarter or in 2025, it will happen. And great will be the fall of it.


Being short investment banks has been tough lately, but maybe we've finally turned the corner. These banks got great news yesterday in the form of a very favorable court ruling, which stated that class action lawsuits against these banks were not permitted. I'm sure the 50 Goldman Sachs personnel getting at least $25 million each for their Christmas bonus (you read that right...) are having the time of their lives. But take a look at the graph below. How's that for a monstrous bearish engulfing pattern?


HYDL looks ripe for a short as well, with a nice, tight stop.

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