一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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Here is Frontier Oil, which appears to be forming a head and shoulders pattern. I'll say again that patterns in formation aren't patterns at all - - merely potential ones. Those among you more comfortable with risk may consider this as a short.


Finally, another look at Lehman Brothers (LEH). Same as before - a stop price not too far from the current price, and plenty of room to fall.


at 11/20/2006 49 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, $vix, fcx, fto, leh, wealth distribution


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Friday, November 17, 2006Pfft....
Well, they got us again today, didn't they? Market started off with a nice tumble, flitted around for most of the day, then surged at the end. This gets old.

I am surprised I missed this before, but here's a fascinating angle on the Russell 2000 from a Fibonacci perspective. Using Fibonacci extensions, you can see the predicted high on the Russell based on prior high/low extremes (the high being in 2000 and the low being in 2002). This week, the Russell ($RUT) touched this line almost perfectly, within less than one point of the predicted level. Worth noting.


Yesterday was a chart heavy day, so today just a couple for your consideration. Fluor (FLR):


And General Dynamics (GD):


Have a good weekend, everyone.


at 11/17/2006 43 insightful comments
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Thursday, November 16, 2006Profits in the Face of Gains
It was one of those nice days where the market went up but my portfolio went up as well (in spite of being completely short). Weakness in oil and gold were the reason.

Taking a look at the NASDAQ Composite, it's pretty plain that the market is at the upper boundaries of an ascending channel. Setting aside bullish/bearish arguments, don't you think it's time for the market to take a breather? Even if we're in a bull market for years to come, it doesn't go straight up. This graph alone should persuade you that it's more likely to ease off than push above the bounds.


The same argument, but for different reasons, applies to the S&P 100 ($OEX). Look how far above the 100/50/30 day moving averages the price is. It hasn't been this lofty since December 2003 (and you can see the softening that happened afterward). We've come very far, very fast.


As I mentioned, gold was weak today. I like how this graph is shaping up. The stop remains the same as noted earlier.


Now here's an interesting and unusual graph. I plotted YHOO and GOOG onto the same chart, each with their own independent axis. What's fascinating to me is that during the first half, the stocks tended to share the same fate. But during the second half, it's clear that GOOG has kicked YHOO's butt, and there's a growing rift between these two. Does it mean that GOOG will eventually "catch up" with YHOO by drifting down sharply? Or that YHOO is simply a company of the 90's and will never catch up again? Time will tell.

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Now here's an interesting and unusual graph. I plotted YHOO and GOOG onto the same chart, each with their own independent axis. What's fascinating to me is that during the first half, the stocks tended to share the same fate. But during the second half, it's clear that GOOG has kicked YHOO's butt, and there's a growing rift between these two. Does it mean that GOOG will eventually "catch up" with YHOO by drifting down sharply? Or that YHOO is simply a company of the 90's and will never catch up again? Time will tell.


Now on to some specific short favorites. Here's AEM, which takes advantage of gold's weakness.


AL is a good play on weakness in industrial metals.


ARE is a very clean short in the world of real estate.

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ARE is a very clean short in the world of real estate.


I like MRO as an energy short.


COF is shaping up nicely. I've mentioned this numerous times.


HYDL is another sweet looking short.

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HYDL is another sweet looking short.


We're still in "a new high every day" mode. This can't last forever. You know that as well as I do.
at 11/16/2006 47 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, $oex, $xau, aem, al, are, cof, goog, hydl, mro, yhoo


Wednesday, November 15, 2006No Man's Land
I have an interesting graph to show you. Here it is:


Amazing market, isn't it? Nothing but strength. What's salient about this graph is that it's an image of the $NDX, and the rightmost price bar is the peak in March of 2000. As you can see, there's hardly any warning about what's going to happen. But this is what a market looks like before it collapses.

What can you draw from this? Probably not much. Obviously rises proceed collapses. And just because a market goes up a lot doesn't mean it's going to go down a lot. What I find somewhat chilling about this graph is how little warning anyone was given, even with the Dow selling off the last two months of this graph. Food for thought.

One of my favorite charts is the long-term view of the $SPX. I've marked up this chart with lines galore, but you get the idea. As you can see, we remain at the tippy-tippy-top of the ascending channel.


A closer view shows more clearly this top (oh, and for those that don't know, just click on any image to see a much bigger chart). Also remarkable is the trendline I've drawn on the RSI which has been cleanly broken.

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A closer view shows more clearly this top (oh, and for those that don't know, just click on any image to see a much bigger chart). Also remarkable is the trendline I've drawn on the RSI which has been cleanly broken.


The Dow Utilities, which go largely ignored in most commentaries, has been a non-participant in the recent rally. Worth noting.


I mentioned GOOG yesterday as a very attractive chart. It is, but just like SHLD, it hasn't really exploded off its pattern yet. I find it interesting today that the "$500 for the sake of $500" crowd couldn't manage to push the stock above this lofty level, and the chart was left in a shooting star pattern for the day.


For the moment, I'm glad I turned the comments section back on to anonymous posters. It's rocking and rolling again. We'll see if people keep the discourse civil this time.
at 11/15/2006 84 insightful comments
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Labels: $ndx, $spx, $util, goog, new high


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Tuesday, November 14, 2006Burying the Bear
See this towel? It's 100% cotton. And I just threw it in.

There's only so long we can pound sand, folks. Ever since July, the market has gone straight up. Iraq doesn't matter. The swing to the left in the political scene doesn't matter. The doomsday economic scenarios don't matter. There are way more buyers than sellers, and that's all the market needs to keep making new highs.

I had suggested recently that we probably should go back into our caves until the second half of January, at least. It seems that's probably the case.

I feel a personal commitment to doing a blog entry here each day. I must say, right now it's probably about as fun as someone doing a blog about the wonderful prospects of the Republican party. It's kind of a drag.

All the same, let's take a look. The NASDAQ Composite pushed higher today, and from a Fib retracement level, it's got plenty of upside left.


The NASDAQ 100 is just as disturbing. Just look at how much open air there is between where we are at and where we could go.


A closer look at the markets - this one is the S&P 500 - shows that you could basically put a ruler on your screen and plot the market from July 16 to the present. It's basically an unforgiving push higher.


The only bit of weakness today in the stock indices was the Dow Transports. It continues to not confirm the Dow Industrials strength. I'm sure there are some that could make an argument that Dow Theory is best left in the dustbin of history. I have no opinion.

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The only bit of weakness today in the stock indices was the Dow Transports. It continues to not confirm the Dow Industrials strength. I'm sure there are some that could make an argument that Dow Theory is best left in the dustbin of history. I have no opinion.


Homebuilders were strong today, recovering from the collapse that everyone knows about. Here's BZH.


GOOG looks very strong. It has logged a new lifetime high, and this is a very nice looking pattern.


Redback (RBAK), which I've named here several times, continues to perform well.

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Monday, November 13, 2006Watched Pot
As many people have pointed out in the comments section, it's been a very long time since we've had any kind of sustained downturn. And at this point, "sustained" means more than one trading session! The market is firmly up the 12,000 mark and seems to have its hands perched haughtily on its hips, daring anyone to sell.

It's easy to forget just how complacent and calm this market is. Just look at the NASDAQ recently compared to the wild days of 1997-2002. The market exploded higher over a three year period (and unwound the entire gain just as quickly). Yet over the most recent three years, we've been calmly and carefully moving higher at a deliberate (and annoying) pace.


The Russell 2000, which I'm a bit obsessed with, is in a no man's land at this point. If it breaks below the rectangle I've drawn, odds are very strong that we've seen the top put in. If it breaks above it, we could be in for more of the same bullish behavior. The calendar is not working in our favor. November, December, January are not known as bearish months. But I'm shurring off seasonality at this point, given how useless it was in September and October.


The $SPX, shown below on a minute bar basis, has lost its steam. It was on a solid tear (see the up arrow) for weeks on end. Recently, although it hasn't plunged by any means, it's definitely a bit pooped. Tomorrow morning's retail report and CPI figures (both of which come out an hour before the opening bell) will almost certainly provide some short-term direction.


The gold and silver index, which I am short, fell nicely at the opening bell this morning, but it recovered for most of the day. I've got a stop in here at 142.60.


I'll probably have more to say tomorrow, after the latest economic figures come out.


at 11/13/2006 17 insightful comments
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 08:07 编辑 ]

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