一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

HYDL looks ripe for a short as well, with a nice, tight stop.


I've had puts on LEH for a few days (someone commented how I got whacked on it; I have no idea what they are talking about; I did not get stopped out). The way it's playing inside these Fib Fans is cool, and it seems to be losing its grip at this level.


Here's a longer view on LEH to bring more clarity to my explanation.


NVR has had a good run-up of late, and a look at the Fibonacci retracement levels gives good reason to short here, with a very tight stop.

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hefeiddd

NVR has had a good run-up of late, and a look at the Fibonacci retracement levels gives good reason to short here, with a very tight stop.


I suggested Redback (RBAK) back on October 4 when it was about $14. It pushed to about $17.50 today on strong volume. This stock looks more bullish than ever.


I put puts on RIMM a few days ago for the worst of reasons - "it just seems really high." Luck has smiled on me so far and it seems to be tumbling more than a skosh.


I remain long puts on SHLD.


Apparently all eyes are on tomorrow morning's employment report, released an hour before the opening bell. It's one of those funny ones where if employment is strong, the market supposedly will take that badly, whereas if employment is weak, the market will respond well since rates are more likely to drop. Ya know, folks, interest rates are not the entirety of the economy! Take a look at Japan during most of the 1990's which was completely buried in recession and had negative interest rates. There's only so much good they can do.
at 12/07/2006 22 insightful comments
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Labels: $vix, akam, cof, goog, gs, hydl, leh, nvr, rbak, rimm, shld


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Tuesday, December 05, 2006The Neutral Position
Greetings from Times Square in New York City, where I am sitting in my hotel room in what must be earth's most uncomfortable chair. How did they pick these things? I think a milking stool would be preferable.

Of course, a down market would be preferable too, but God's not taking any wishes at the moment. The U.S. stock markets went on yet again to new highs in many cases. Below is the Russell 2000, for instance. For those desperate for a sliver of a silver lining in on a very big cloud, you can at least take heart that there was a spinning top today. But.........big deal. The markets have done little but climb for the past five months. It is absolutely unrelenting.


One fellow wrote and made a good point in the comments section. He said he was a bear, but he had basically stayed out of the market during this time. That actually makes abundant sense. You can have a point of view and still wait for the insanity to pass. You might miss the exact top of the market, sure, but more likely you'll miss a lot of pain (such as the last five months). Having a neutral position makes a lot of sense these days. You can have your opinion, but wait until a better time to act on it!

One mild curiousity is how the $VIX has actually been edging up in spite of the market's strength. The graph below shows how the $VIX and the $SPX have been pretty much mirror images of one another. But the past week, the $VIX has started acting differently. I think last Monday's big drop shook things up.


The Major Market Index ($XMI), shown below, is absolutely in a bullish formation. There's no denying it. I have posted this index many times in the past few months. I keep looking for weakness, but it's not happening. If you're a bull, this is exactly the kind of pattern you want to see.


In spite of plenty of bad homebuilder news, homebuilder stocks have shown recent strength. Take a look at BZH.

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hefeiddd

In spite of plenty of bad homebuilder news, homebuilder stocks have shown recent strength. Take a look at BZH.


I'm loathe to point out short ideas right now, but Capital One Financial (COF) seems so toppy to me I am compelled to mention it again. A person purchasing puts on this might want to make the expiration pretty far out there.


NutriSystem (NTRI) is a stock that had been weak earlier this year. But the volume and strength of this stock have shaped up into something that looks plausibly bullish. A breakout above the (roughly) horizontal line shown would be very bullish for NTIR.


at 12/05/2006 29 insightful comments
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Monday, December 04, 2006More Cowbell!
Ouch. Another big up day on the market. New never-before-seen highs on a number of major indexes. These are the times that try a bear's soul.

I'm not going to share many charts today. Mainly because my picks have stunk so badly recently! I really wanted instead to address some of the comments I have seen recently in this blog.




Let me be clear: even though I have access to every indicator under the sun, I use hardly any of them. I'm a simple soul. I'm interested in (1) patterns (2) trendlines (3) Fibonacci studies. That's really about it. I've been tossing in some RSI here and there to spice things up a bit, but honestly, if you're looking for something like the graph below, you might be better off hanging out at the public chart site of StockCharts.com (which is where this graph is from):


Oh, and there was one other (anonymous, of course) comment I must address.

I think Tim has a secret agenda. Tim is certainly not a technician because the number one cardinal rule is trend is your friend. He clearly violates that rule repeatedly. Personally, I think he subconsciously hates American capitalism. He wishes the economy will go sour and companies go bankrupt.

Ummm, actually, my love of America as well as capitalism runs pretty deep. Need I remind you that I built, grew, and sold my own company? And it continues humming along to this day. I am proud to have created employment, created value for subscribers and users, and made enough money to afford the overpriced real estate around here. So you, sir, are wrong.

As I mentioned, there were some new lifetime highs today on such things as the MidCap 400 ($MID), Russell 2000 ($RUT), and some others. The Dow 30 is within spitting distance of another lifetime high, and the S&P 500, while still a little ways from a lifetime high, pushed into territory not seen since autumn of 2000. The bulls are extremely strong now.


But getting back to the bit about being a technician. At the moment, this really isn't a technician's market. Sometimes the market is more favorable to technical analysis than others. And I'm speaking of both bullish and bearish plays. The kind of analysis I do, described above, really isn't yielding much these days. Yes, GOOG and SHLD could wind up being fantastic buys. I guess I'm just having trouble getting past their nosebleed levels to believe they would burst hundreds of points higher from here.

Let me point out one interesting parallel, however. Take a look at this graph of the Dow 30 leading up to the bear market of 1973-1974. What we have here are four interesting steps: (1) a gigantic secular bull market (2) a moderate bear market (3) a backlash higher, pushing the market back to its prior high (4) a push above the prior high into new record territory, although not much higher than previous.


Take a look at the Dow 30 of the present day. I've provided numbers for easy reference. Do you see the parallel?


You can tell I'm pretty disheartened since I'm offering not a single stock suggestion. But I at least wanted to respond to the recent comments and share some thoughts on what I see as an interesting historical parallel.


at 12/04/2006 33 insightful comments
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-6 10:32 编辑 ]

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Friday, December 01, 2006A Bad End to a Great Day
Until about 2:45 EST today, this was looking like a fantastic, bears-are-back-in-charge kind of day. The Dow was down about 130. Every attempt to push the market higher was met with bears pushing it past the prior lows of the day. The direction of the market was everything we've been waiting for.

Unfortunately, the bulls have staggering firepower and confidence, and they wiped out all but 28 points of the Dow's lose in a little over an hour, tacking on 100 points to the Dow from its lows of the day. Very discouraging and disappointing. But let's at least take solace in the fact that the market was down for both the day and the week. Down is down, people. Let's not get too self-pitying.

Here you can see the areas I've highlighted, indicating the places where the bulls have slashed back at the bears by bidding up stocks.


I do get a sense, though, that the bulls' merciless grip on the market is starting to slip. There was no more succession of daily lifetime highs. For the moment, at least, the atmosphere in the market seems to have changed for the better. But one thing is certain: if we don't break below 1,375 on the S&P soon, this brief sense of bearish confidence is going to fade. We must break this level, period.


I've got just a handful of short suggestions today. GOOG is one I'm hesitant to put forward, but I feel compelled to do so. I don't have a strong technical reason for doing so (except insofar as the recent breakout really isn't going anywhere). I rely more on the notion that whatever everyone knows is not worth knowing. And what everyone knows is that GOOG is the king of the world, it can do no wrong, it's a cash machine, and it has stomped everyone else out of existence. Well, where do you go from there? When anything is priced for perfection, it seems an ideal time to fade the market.


A less dramatic suggestion is HES, which I think has recovered about as far as it's going to go.

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hefeiddd

A less dramatic suggestion is HES, which I think has recovered about as far as it's going to go.


Sears Holding (SHLD) looks like its recent bullish breakout doesn't have legs either.


Lastly, US Steel (X) seems to have fully run its course. The beauty of all four of these suggestion is that the stop-loss levels are not only obvious but not that far away, so the risk is quite manageable.


I appreciate your taking the time to check in with me. Have a good weekend.
at 12/01/2006 34 insightful comments
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Thursday, November 30, 2006Isn't It Epic?
What a day! The bulls and bears are in an epic battle. First the market went up. Then it lost its footing and fell. Then it was down nearly 60 points. Then it erased all those gains and pushed up nearly 50 points. Then it fell yet again for the Dow to have a loss for the day! It's just getting shoved all over the place!

The market definitely "feels" different. I think this Monday's tumble has freaked the bulls out a bit. Our bullish friends aren't quite as cocksure as they were before. It's a nauseating battle for control.

The candlestick graph of the S&P 500 shows a big honkin' spinning top for the day, which is the very essence of the uncertainty going on. Neither side is in control. Know this: if we take out the lows from Monday, the bears are going to have the upper paw.


The purported reason for any recent weakness has been the U.S. dollar, which has tumbled again lately (take a look at the highlighted area below). I've drawn a horizontal line indicating the support level which, if taken out, will really start to freak people out.


Just to drive the point home, the S&P 500 has played the "I'm falling! No, I'm moving to new highs!" game before. Take a look at the areas I've highlighted below which shows quick tumbles recently. We saw what happened last night. Let us pray to the ursine gods above to have mercy on us sinners.


Like I said above, the market feels different. I think the chart below shows why. The unrelenting, horrible uptrend we've been burdened with was snapped Monday. As the lines indicate, this could be the day where the uptrend ended and the downtrend began.

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hefeiddd

Like I said above, the market feels different. I think the chart below shows why. The unrelenting, horrible uptrend we've been burdened with was snapped Monday. As the lines indicate, this could be the day where the uptrend ended and the downtrend began.


A closer look just shows how fierce the battle is being waged. These is a minute bar graph. Just look how wild these swings are!


A daily graph of the Russell 2000 ($RUT) makes me think it would take a supercharged rally to elevate the market into new high territory again. The psychological damage done by Monday was pretty bad on the bulls.


One short that's been getting bludgeoned has been gold. In my defense, I never said this was a slam-dunk pattern. It was on the fence. But recent strength has been staggering. This position is close to getting shuttered.

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One short that's been getting bludgeoned has been gold. In my defense, I never said this was a slam-dunk pattern. It was on the fence. But recent strength has been staggering. This position is close to getting shuttered.


Just one stock today - one I've shown before - Lehman Brothers (LEH). This continues to be weak. Nothing sensational. No collapse. Just a nice, steady weakening.


at 11/30/2006 28 insightful comments
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