一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

I got snookered into thinking Sears (SHLD) was going to be a superstock. But as I've reminded myself, and others - - it's Sears. Are polyester pantsuits coming back? Does every household need ten new lawnmowers? I confess I have no position in this stock, but I sure envy you put-holders out there.


The disgusting, greedy pigs at Goldman Sachs that have bled obscene bonuses out of their firm this year have been getting a lot of press. Don't you think investment banks have jumped the shark by now? I sure do.


Yep, that twinkle in my eye is Google, everyone's favorite company ever to exist. Chip, chip, chip. Lower each day. So much for the hockey stick.


FDX continues to be weak, even after the impact of earnings was absorbed yesterday.


I was hoping for a nice nasty surprise from RIMM, but they had blowout earnings and their stock is way, way high in after hours trading. I wouldn't drop dead of shock if they ended the day down tomorrow. It's just a hunch. Maybe a completely stupid hunch, but a hunch nonetheless. I'm hanging on to these March puts.
at 12/21/2006 17 insightful comments
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Labels: $xau, cme, goog, gs, shld, tso

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Wednesday, December 20, 2006Baby Got Redback
As regular readers know, although I'm a bear (in both real life and my Second Life), I do publish bullish charts some of the time (maybe 10%). One stock I've consistently point out as having a handsomely bullish pattern is RBAK, which I first mentioned over a year ago in my At the time, RBAK was about $9 per share. It was purchased today for $25 per share, and the stock price actually closed north of that.

The calls I bought on RBAK a month or so ago more than tripled in price over a small amount of time. Now this is a beautiful example of an inverted head and shoulders pattern in action!


What's funny to me is some highly-paid analyst published a report in the wee hours of this morning stating, in brief, (1) RBAK had reached its target price, so they were downgrading it (2) a buyout was not likely "in the near future" (which, given the outcome, I guess meant within the next 30 minutes following the publication of the report).. Wow, what an embarassment. Analysts have never been worth a sack of crap, have they?


The $INDU reached yet another all-time intraday high today (turd monkeys!) but closed down a bit. The divergence between the RSI and the price action is absolutely huge. Come ON, you stupid market, would you fall already? Jesus H. Christ!


The NASDAQ continues to look weaker than the U.S. stock market as a whole.


...and the Dow Transports continue to act (alone) in a truly bearish fashion.

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...and the Dow Transports continue to act (alone) in a truly bearish fashion.


CDX, a short I've suggested before, had a nice down day - - I suppose led by FedEx's action.


And speaking of FedEx, another item I've suggested shorting, it had a nice down day, although it certainly was no demolition of the stock. These things can take time, I suppose.


One could make a flimsy argument that GOOG is sporting a petite head and shoulders pattern. I wouldn't even mention it. Oops, too late. Anyway, I have high (low) hopes for GOOG in January.

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One could make a flimsy argument that GOOG is sporting a petite head and shoulders pattern. I wouldn't even mention it. Oops, too late. Anyway, I have high (low) hopes for GOOG in January.


Finally, TSO continues to be well behaved. This looks like a nice, fat toppy pattern to me.


Someone commented (and let me say, I really appreciate the comments section - - I read it religiously) that yesterday's graph of the coming disaster in Medicare has nothing to do with stocks or the financial markets. I dunno, I think the insolvency of the United States will surely be germane at some point.

Oh, I forgot. Liquidity. There's liquidity. And all that money needs a place to go. (Where it came from, no one knows - - actually they do - - leverage, leverage, leverage. Which, oh, is a two-edged sword). Anyway, liquidity is the current This Time It's Different argument. Just like how the Internet's productivity enhancement changed everything and justified the valuations of 1999.

People just never learn. Never. I simply cannot wait for those Liquidity twits to get blown to hell. Then at least we can wait a few years before we have to endure them again with another fabricated story.
at 12/20/2006 17 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $ndx, analysts, csx, fdx, goog, rbak, tso


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Tuesday, December 19, 2006Beyond Good and Evil
Well, the day started off well enough. A nice initial wallop. Regrettably, the markets clawed their way back up to end in positive territory. Chalk up "Mini Asian Financial Crisis" as yet another thing the markets can shrug off as irrelevant.




I found the graph about the Medicare gap particularly interesting. I don't think I've ever seen a y-axis before which measures "billions" of dollars with figures such as $16,000 (e.g. Sixteen Thousand Billion - - otherwise known as Sixteen Trillion). Umm, we are hosed, people. Wake up!


AIV is representative of many REIT stocks, all of which are softening like butter on a midsummer's day.


BAC looks like the uptrend is over.


BLUD, one of my few long suggestions, is still looking mighty purty.


BZH, another long suggestion, seems also poised for a rise.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-6 07:46 编辑 ]

xmlks

好好琢磨:*18*: :*18*:

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BZH, another long suggestion, seems also poised for a rise.


Although I'm uncertain as to where gold is heading, GFI looks potentially bullish as well. (Wow, three bullish mentions in a row.......)


MDC is easing away from its retracement nicely.


.....as is old favorite MTH.

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.....as is old favorite MTH.


Many people have asked me to look at QID. I own this now. It doesn't have much of a history to it, but it's a nice double inverse play on the Nasdaq. And check out the volume!


RIMM, which will give everyone a quarterly update after the close Thursday, is starting to slip-slide away again.


And SHLD, long-watched but seldom tried, is looking mighty mushy.


It was disappointing, of course, to see how boldly the markets fought their way back today. The bulls have had a dynamite year (and the dynamite was placed directly under our paws). I guess they're just going to keep pouring salt in the wound until Dick Clark's ball drops at year's end.

at 12/19/2006 22 insightful comments
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Labels: aiv, bac, blud, bzh, gfi, mdc, mth, qid, rimm, shld

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Monday, December 18, 2006Bears and Atheism
I think my bear avatar is so cute, I just have to show it again. Particularly since we had some red today.


And here's where the parallels click..........Richard Dawkins is smart. Really smart. And it's got to be just a little bit troubling for those who give it a few moments of thought that really brainy, thoughtful, deep-thinking people are atheists. Because it makes you wonder what "side" you really want to be on.

And so it is with the bears. I'll be blunt - - I think bears are a lot smarter than bulls. Bears tend to be the more thoughtful, cerebral sort. Given the ways of the world, it also means that bears tend to be Flat Broke. Just as atheists can rest assured that they will not elect anyone to the White House in the next hundred years at least.

It's frustrating to be a bear, just as I'm sure it must be frustrating being an atheist. Because you watch the mainstream prosper and thrive. And you believe in your heart that they are just dead wrong. And you're the outsider. You're the freak. But it's very tough to convince the crowd when you are so clearly outside of it.

Do I have a conclusion from this? Not really. I simply think it's an interesting parallel. I'm not tempted to jump over to the atheist side any more than I'm tempted to jump to the bullish side. So I live with being a stupid sheep and a brainy bear at the same time. The duality of man!

Are you still reading? Are you still there? Good. Then we'll look at a few charts. Honest to God.......

The market did what I wanted it to do today (for a change), which is push higher, get the bulls excited, and then dash their hopes. Nothing makes my day more than a disappointed bull. The markets were down across the board, particularly in the world of gold and oil. The MidCap 400 did not break above the horizontal line shown here, indicating a possible failed pattern.


The NASDAQ was especially weak today. Here we see the $NDX slipped away from its formerly ascending channel. Ta ta, naz.


The Russell 2000 is also failing its bullish ways. The relative strength continues to weaken and is heading below the 50 mark. I really like the way things are turning around.


And here is the S&P 500, the only stock index on which I own puts right now (and a disturbingly large amount). We see how the RSI pulls farther away from the failed trendline.

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hefeiddd

And here is the S&P 500, the only stock index on which I own puts right now (and a disturbingly large amount). We see how the RSI pulls farther away from the failed trendline.


The last index is the $XAU, the Gold and Silver index. We have been watching this a while, and this is a closer view than the one I normally provide. There still is no cut-and-dried pattern here, but it is clearly weakening, and I would look for it to fall all the way back to its neckline, at least.


Although oil has already started getting weaker, it might not be took late to get on board FTO, assuming the emerging head and shoulder completes.


Google (GOOG) fell nearly twenty points today. There is absolutely no doubt at all from this chart that the former "$500 now! $600 tomorrow! Go, go, go!" enthusiasm is shot. Google is priced for perfection. This company is far too arrogant to just keep sailing.

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hefeiddd

Google (GOOG) fell nearly twenty points today. There is absolutely no doubt at all from this chart that the former "$500 now! $600 tomorrow! Go, go, go!" enthusiasm is shot. Google is priced for perfection. This company is far too arrogant to just keep sailing.


HWAY looks like a promising short pattern.


And MEE, mentioned here many times in the past, is behaving as it should.


I've also mentioned TSO, which had a solid down day. Oil's weakness is benefiting many of the items we are watching.


I'll brace myself for the comments section, since I've strayed away from charts. But keep in mind I'm not advocating a religious position here at all. Although I admit to proselytizing the Church of the Bear without shame.
at 12/18/2006 33 insightful comments
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Labels: $mid, $ndx, $rut, $spx, $xau, fto, goog, hway, mee, tso