一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

A short idea I haven't offered here before, I don't think - symbol GEF.


Now GOOG is interesting. It matched a lifetime intraday high today, but actually fell a little bit. Is this a double top? Or does it simply proceed a rush to $600 when they announce their earnings? I certainly don't know.


McKesson sports an interesting pattern with those Fib Fans as a backdrop. Might be a triple top here.


As for MLS, shown below, I'm not saying buy or sell. It's simply a fascinating study in how, once higher highs/higher lows are broken, the trend shift can be devastating. Because it completely morphed into a series of lower highs/lower lows. Fascinating stuff.


at 1/16/2007 7 insightful comments
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Labels: $compq, ande, bp, ccj, ci, gef, goog, mls, new high, rack


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Friday, January 12, 2007On Options
Well, it was another wreck of a day for da bears (new high on the Dow, once again), so.......let's talk about something else, shall we? Seriously, one of the most frequent requests I have been getting in the comments section has been to talk a bit about options. So here we go.

Considering the market's behavior lately, let's make this a happy story and focus on a call option. In particular, a call option for a stock I suggested way back in an

At the time, the stock was at about $25. Now let's suppose you had so much faith in this chart that you didn't just want to buy the stock, you wanted to buy the call option (in order to leverage your investment and possibly enjoy great percentage gains).

Well, let's slow down for just a minute and do the most important thing first: figure out a stop-loss price. In other words, figure out at what price we would consider our speculation incorrect. In the case of BLUD, the deepest point of the most recent dip in this chart was at $21.57, about $4 less than its current price. So we decide that if the price ever dips below this level, we will close out our position at once.


Next we have to pick an option - - we'll want a call option, of course, since we're bullish on the stock. I typically look for a number of properties in the option I choose:

So, for instance, here's a chunk of an options screen showing the S&P options; the one I've highlighted is interesting since its volume and open interest stand out above the others, plus, it's in-the-money.


Those are pretty much the steps. Once they are in place, one of several things can happen. The stock can move in the direction you anticipated, which will benefit the option even more. Or the stock can move against you, pushing past your stop price, and closing the position at a loss. Or the stock can just meander along, which isn't something you can tolerate for long because the option will expire at some point!


Now let's see the happy ending to this story. BLUD went up about 30% since the suggestion back in October. But the option went up hundreds of percent! That's the beauty of leverage. Now, I admit, this is a fairly idealized example. But the important things to note are: (a) some of the rules to follow (b) the importance of stops (c) the power of leverage, if things go your way!




at 1/12/2007 31 insightful comments
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hefeiddd

Thursday, January 11, 2007Shuttering Anon
I've shut off Anonymous comments again. It's not that I'm upset by the put-downs; believe me, I've got a thick skin. But some clown has become so abusive - without anything constructive to say - that I'm demanding a person at least show themselves to make a comment. I've had enough.



I suggested the short when it was at about $71. The stock quickly climbed to $74.89, so yes, you could have laughed and thrown bricks at me for making a stupid suggestion. But after a few days of going up, it started descending, and now it's at $61. A 9% drop in a month really isn't shabby, even though I was "wrong" for the first few trading days. So excuse me if everything doesn't work out perfectly. I've drawn a green rectangle around the "Tim is an idiot" timeframe.


Today's action pushed the Dow to yet another lifetime, never-before-seen high. I took advantage of this to sell into the trading near the top of the day's range. I really like the look of the Russell 2000.


Take a closer look at the $RUT. I've drawn the lower highs and lower lows. Very attractive.


Just a couple of short suggestions tonight. One is AMLN. I can't say for sure that this isn't going to recover more. No promises. But this is a very toppy looking formation.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

Just a couple of short suggestions tonight. One is AMLN. I can't say for sure that this isn't going to recover more. No promises. But this is a very toppy looking formation.


The other one is Camden Properties (CPT), which also is in recovery mode. I'm selling into the strength of this one.


Good-bye, anonymous posters. I really don't think I'll be letting you in again.
at 1/11/2007 11 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, amln, cpt, new high

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少林飞刀












Wednesday, January 10, 2007The S&P 1400 Line in the Sand
The most important fact of today's activity is the S&P 500 didn't breach 1400. The horizontal line you see below is substantial. For many weeks, it provided a formidable resistance to prices moving above it. Once clearly pierced, it transformed into support. This barrier is crucial......unless it is cracked soon, hope will fade (for the umpteenth time) for a meaningful drop in the market.


The NASDAQ has been especially strong recently. I'm sure Apple, Inc. (AAPL) can largely be credited for this.


Finally, the Dow Transports remain safely bearish, but if the downward sloping trendline is broken (which would be at about the point the arrow is pointing), that would be really bad for the bears.


Just a couple of stocks to mention today - one short and one long - - and both tech. The short suggestion is gigantic Microsoft (MSFT). Years ago, this stock minted millionares and billionaires. Now it's just a big, fat bore. But its recent rapid ascent makes for a nice shorting opportunity with very low risk, since the stop-loss point is to close.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-5 11:46 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd

Just a couple of stocks to mention today - one short and one long - - and both tech. The short suggestion is gigantic Microsoft (MSFT). Years ago, this stock minted millionares and billionaires. Now it's just a big, fat bore. But its recent rapid ascent makes for a nice shorting opportunity with very low risk, since the stop-loss point is to close.


On the flip side is none other than Sun Microsystems, which has been in the process of either getting blown to pieces of marking time since the turn of the millineum. It finally seems to have done something exciting, and there's no doubt that the burst above the huge area of resistance drawn here is unusual and meaningful.


at 1/10/2007 36 insightful comments
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Labels: $ndx, $spx, $tran, msft, sunw


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Tuesday, January 09, 2007Ode to Steve Jobs
All the world was abuzz today This is one gorgeous, sexy, amazing-looking product. Although I've used a PC for years, I bought my first Macintosh early in 1984, and I worked at Apple for a few years. Steve Jobs has been my hero since I was about 14 years old, and the adventures he has had in his business life make Odysseus look like a bore.

Steve Jobs has more style in his pinkie than Bill Gates has in his whole body. And even though the Google founders could buy and sell Steve Jobs many times over, I doubt there's anyone in the country that would opt for lunch with the Google guys over Steve Jobs. He's amazing. As is the press coverage....the top story on CNN!


So it's not surprise that Apple exploded higher today....on volume of over 100 million shares! It wasn't that many years ago that the entire stock market traded 100 million shares. Now just one stock can do it. Just look at this graph!


This is a very late posting, so I'm going to have to tear through it. Boeing (BA) still looks like it's changing trends.


COF, mentioned many times in this space, is moving achingly slowly, but at least it's moving down.


Express Scripts (ESRX), a favorite here, looks terrific. Lower lows and lower highs are clearly intact.

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hefeiddd

Express Scripts (ESRX), a favorite here, looks terrific. Lower lows and lower highs are clearly intact.


CSX still looks good on the short side.


And FTO is looking like it has a real chance at completing its head and shoulders pattern.


HES is moving nicely lower with all the oil stocks (yep, I got blown out of those OIH calls first thing this morning).

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hefeiddd

HES is moving nicely lower with all the oil stocks (yep, I got blown out of those OIH calls first thing this morning).


And Hilton (HLT) is obeying the "trendline changing from support to resistance" phenomenon.


Oh, and then there's RIMM. I set my stop too tight on this. It got killed today - obviously because of Apple. I mean, the Blackberry is the most boring piece of crap on the planet compared to the sexy iPhone. Who wants one of those ugly Blackberries now? That's so 2002.


RTI continues to behave as any bearish pick should.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

RTI continues to behave as any bearish pick should.


...as does SIE...


...and TSO...


It's late, so I'd better publish this. I hopefully will have more time tomorrow for some general market analysis. Thanks for stopping by!
at 1/09/2007 11 insightful comments
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Labels: aapl, ba, cof, csx, esrx, fto, hes, hlt, rimm, rti, sie, steve jobs, tso

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