BZH is actually a long idea (bullish) that I've offered before; here's an updated chart.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1122-bzh.jpg
GS continued to be very strong today. But check out the volume. Looks like this is being pushed up by less and less strength.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1122-gs.jpg
Hilton (HLT) seems to be nearing the underside of its trendline. I've pointed out the various times it has "bounced" off this trendline (for both upward or downward motions).
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1122-hlt.jpg
SHLD remains a gorgeous cup with handle pattern. Amazing how far this company has come from its near-bankruptcy.
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SHLD remains a gorgeous cup with handle pattern. Amazing how far this company has come from its near-bankruptcy.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1122-shld.jpg
A short play on energy is probably better realized via XLE as opposed to OIH, the latter of which is a mess right now.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1122-xle.jpg
I appreciate all the nice comments lately. It's encouraging to get such positive feedback. Many thanks, and - - miserable market aside - - I hope everyone enjoys a feast tomorrow with those for whom they care.
at 11/22/2006 25 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, $xmi, aem, bzh, gs, hlt, shld, xle
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Tuesday, November 21, 2006Grind
These days I tend to be alternating between longish posts (like yesterday's, which caused quite a stir) and short ones (like today's). I just can't speak at great length about a market which nudged up another five points.
The time around Thanksgiving is usually given to upward movements. People get excited about a pleasant family holiday, I suppose. It will take virtually no strength to nudge the markets into new highs again.
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/202195/1121-%24spx.jpg
The Russell 2000 is much the same picture. Like the Dow, it is positioned to make not just multi-year highs, but lifetime highs. *Sniff*.
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/660108/1121-%24rut.jpg
There's no denying it, Google (GOOG) is a gorgeous chart. I mentioned this a while back, as I suggested GOOG for a long position. This company seems to be enjoying the "perfect storm." As with all things, it will stumble someday. Maybe next year. Maybe ten years from now. Who knows. But at the moment, it's the company that can seem to Do No Wrong.
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/386789/1121-goog.jpg
Below is GS. I have nothing particular to say about it, either long or short. But I think the chart speaks volumes about this market. A huge, well-known investment bank up over 100% in just over a year. And virtually a straight line up since the middle of this year. Breathtaking.
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/88342/1121-gs.jpg
I'm moving more and more into cash and more and more resigned to hang up my trading for a few months. It doesn't necessarily mean I'll hang up the blog. But this market is a little too bewildering to trade.
at 11/21/2006 28 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, $spx, goog, gs, new high
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Monday, November 20, 2006Single Digit VIX
The market fell today, which was a welcome change, particularly since it looked early on that we'd have yet another record high on our hands. The market "felt" different today, as there was no late-day rush by the bulls to push it upward. The bears were (just a tiny little bit) in control for a change.
The $VIX, the market's measure of volatility (and, indirectly, complacency) fell to an unheard-of low beneath 10. We are now in single digit territory, which means that puts have a historically very modest time premium. Buying puts today is a relatively inexpensive exercise, although obviously the intrinsic value still plays a big role here! But you can see just how sharply the VIX has plunged.
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/792503/1120-%24vix.jpg
There is a review of this blog coming out in the December Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities magazine. I got an advance copy, and it's a very nice review. One of the things it points out is how this blog is really meat & potatoes, not straying into rhetoric but focusing on charts.
The Russell 2000 remains my favorite index candidate for shorting. I bought a block of puts today (January expiration) on this, with a stop at any price above 795. It's a relatively low risk trade.
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/857957/1120-%24rut.jpg
The S and P 500 ($SPX), shown in candlestick form here, had a perfect doji pattern today. This is a statement of uncertainty. The market finally took a pause, in spite of a lot of bullish news about massive mergers, both real and contemplated.
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/75826/1120-%24spx.jpg
The Dow Transports continues to be in a rather bearish pattern. You can plainly see the series of lower lows and lower highs illustrated here, along with a nice complement of Fib fans beneath the current price levels.
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http://bbs.macd.cn/attachments.php?aid=1690793&noupdate=yes&3
丹鹤展翅
The Dow Transports continues to be in a rather bearish pattern. You can plainly see the series of lower lows and lower highs illustrated here, along with a nice complement of Fib fans beneath the current price levels.
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/223400/1120-%24tran.jpg
Gold shot higher early today, but it weakened throughout and actually closed down (when I say 'gold', I am typically speaking of the $XAU index, not the commodity gold itself). I remain long the puts on this index.
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/642787/1120-%24xau.jpg
FCX, the purchaser of PD (whose puts I got blown out of this morning at the pathetic price of a nickel each!) sank on the day. I continue to like this chart, in spite of the mauling I took with PD!
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/473437/1120-fcx.jpg
Here is Frontier Oil, which appears to be forming a head and shoulders pattern. I'll say again that patterns in formation aren't patterns at all - - merely potential ones. Those among you more comfortable with risk may consider this as a short.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-7 06:28 编辑 ]
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Here is Frontier Oil, which appears to be forming a head and shoulders pattern. I'll say again that patterns in formation aren't patterns at all - - merely potential ones. Those among you more comfortable with risk may consider this as a short.
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/459317/1120-fto.jpg
Finally, another look at Lehman Brothers (LEH). Same as before - a stop price not too far from the current price, and plenty of room to fall.
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/483642/1120-leh.jpg
at 11/20/2006 49 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, $vix, fcx, fto, leh, wealth distribution
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Friday, November 17, 2006Pfft....
Well, they got us again today, didn't they? Market started off with a nice tumble, flitted around for most of the day, then surged at the end. This gets old.
I am surprised I missed this before, but here's a fascinating angle on the Russell 2000 from a Fibonacci perspective. Using Fibonacci extensions, you can see the predicted high on the Russell based on prior high/low extremes (the high being in 2000 and the low being in 2002). This week, the Russell ($RUT) touched this line almost perfectly, within less than one point of the predicted level. Worth noting.
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/282133/1117-%24rut.jpg
Yesterday was a chart heavy day, so today just a couple for your consideration. Fluor (FLR):
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/17907/1117-flr.jpg
And General Dynamics (GD):
http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger2/945/1439/400/376673/1117-gd.jpg
Have a good weekend, everyone.
at 11/17/2006 43 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, gd, l flr
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Thursday, November 16, 2006Profits in the Face of Gains
It was one of those nice days where the market went up but my portfolio went up as well (in spite of being completely short). Weakness in oil and gold were the reason.
Taking a look at the NASDAQ Composite, it's pretty plain that the market is at the upper boundaries of an ascending channel. Setting aside bullish/bearish arguments, don't you think it's time for the market to take a breather? Even if we're in a bull market for years to come, it doesn't go straight up. This graph alone should persuade you that it's more likely to ease off than push above the bounds.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1116-%24compq.jpg
The same argument, but for different reasons, applies to the S&P 100 ($OEX). Look how far above the 100/50/30 day moving averages the price is. It hasn't been this lofty since December 2003 (and you can see the softening that happened afterward). We've come very far, very fast.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1116-%24oex.jpg
As I mentioned, gold was weak today. I like how this graph is shaping up. The stop remains the same as noted earlier.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1116-%24xau.jpg
Now here's an interesting and unusual graph. I plotted YHOO and GOOG onto the same chart, each with their own independent axis. What's fascinating to me is that during the first half, the stocks tended to share the same fate. But during the second half, it's clear that GOOG has kicked YHOO's butt, and there's a growing rift between these two. Does it mean that GOOG will eventually "catch up" with YHOO by drifting down sharply? Or that YHOO is simply a company of the 90's and will never catch up again? Time will tell.
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Now here's an interesting and unusual graph. I plotted YHOO and GOOG onto the same chart, each with their own independent axis. What's fascinating to me is that during the first half, the stocks tended to share the same fate. But during the second half, it's clear that GOOG has kicked YHOO's butt, and there's a growing rift between these two. Does it mean that GOOG will eventually "catch up" with YHOO by drifting down sharply? Or that YHOO is simply a company of the 90's and will never catch up again? Time will tell.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1116-googyhoo.jpg
Now on to some specific short favorites. Here's AEM, which takes advantage of gold's weakness.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1116-aem.jpg
AL is a good play on weakness in industrial metals.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1116-al.jpg
ARE is a very clean short in the world of real estate.
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ARE is a very clean short in the world of real estate.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1116-are.jpg
I like MRO as an energy short.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1116-mro.jpg
COF is shaping up nicely. I've mentioned this numerous times.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1116-cof.jpg
HYDL is another sweet looking short.
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