The $MID to me is looking sort of alluring as a potential put purchase. The stop price is pretty tight. Mind you, today's action is not encouraging. But if it's a one-day wonder, looking for shorts at these lofty levels is a good exercise.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0925-%24mid.jpg
One honest-to-goodness down market that's been really good to me lately is oil. The $OSX, shown below, is very similar to the OIH, and you can see its squeaky-clean head and shoulders pattern. Things might have bottomed out for the short term (like the next week or so), but it's been great so far.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0925-%24osx.jpg
I recommended Massey Energy, for example, weeks ago. It has taken a terrific tumble.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0925-mee.jpg
But take a look at today's candlestick pattern. A honkin' big hammer. That spells short term bottom to me.
111111111
But take a look at today's candlestick pattern. A honkin' big hammer. That spells short term bottom to me.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0925-meecandle.jpg
The NASDAQ 100 is extremely close to the make-or-break point for bears. Crossing above the line shown here would spell bad news for at least a little while for the bears.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0925-qqqq.jpg
Hilton (HLT) caught my eye today as a short candidate.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0925-hlt.jpg
As did NOV, which is in my (obviously) favorite pattern, the H and S.
1111111111
As did NOV, which is in my (obviously) favorite pattern, the H and S.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0925-nov.jpg
For those skeptical about the still sky-high REIT market (in spite of all the bad real estate news), take a look at SPG.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0925-spg.jpg
at 9/25/2006 52 insightful comments
http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif Links to this post
Labels: indu, mee, oex, oih, oil, oil services, osx, qqqq, spg, spx
Newer Posts Older Posts Home
11111111111
Saturday, September 23, 2006The Case for a Double Top
It wasn't a bad week. The bulls wanted this to be The Week of New Highs, but it was not to be. The more we can take away a new prize for the bulls, the more discouraged they will get. Which, let's face it, is all they deserve.
Oil is tantalizing close to an all-out breakdown on OIH. Within pennies, really. I like what I see.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0922-oih.jpg
As I look at the major U.S. stock indexes, I see some pretty big double tops. Could they be rendered moot by a pierce through to new highs? Of course. But if the earnings season, starting in early October, disappoints, we may have already seen the highs for quite a while. Here's the Dow, which got within spitting distance of a lifetime high this week.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0923-indu.jpg
The oft-ignored but still important Dow Utilities (interest-rate sensitive) likewise has a double top, although not quite as clean.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0923-util.jpg
The S&P 500 is of particular interest to me since I own so many puts on it. I'm feeling pretty good about where this index is positioned.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0923-spx.jpg
Here are all the positions I've got that will fit onto on screen. I manage four accounts, two of which are shown here. Every one of these has a sizeable put position. God help me. (As always, since these images can be illegible, click on 'em to see a bigger, more readable version, then click your Back button on the browser to return to this lovely little blog).
at 9/23/2006 35 insightful comments
http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif Links to this post
11111111
Thursday, September 21, 2006Stop New High Mania!
They just couldn't let us have a triple digit down day, could they? The Dow was down about 115 points earlier, but we closed down 80. Oh, well. Not a bad day, particularly since the media is all ga-ga over the possibility that the Dow is within spitting distance of an all-time high. It would be nice for that not to happen.
My portfolios were up today, but not as much as they might have been if oil had cooperated. OIH was up about 2% as oil and related companies tried to recover from its recent bashing.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0921-oih.jpg
The aforementioned $INDU gave back yesterday's gains and is clearly showing some respect for that trendline that it is under.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0921-indu.jpg
The $RUT is hopefully stuck in a rut. That horizontal trendline is the "throw in the towel" zone, and we do not want it to cross on the upside. This is a nice bearish engulfing pattern at this point.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0921-rut.jpg
More short ideas. Here's DST......
11111111
More short ideas. Here's DST......
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0921-dst.jpg
ESRX, offered up a week or two ago, is doing nicely.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0921-esrx.jpg
As is NVR, also suggested a while back.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0921-nvr.jpg
One I discovered today was Panera Bread, PNRA.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0921-pnra.jpg
That's it for now. As always, good luck in your trading.
at 9/21/2006 31 insightful comments
http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif Links to this post
Labels: dst, esrx, nvr, oih, pnra
11111111
Wednesday, September 20, 2006Slippery Oil
For a Fed day, it was relatively peaceful. The bulls got virtually all their gains within the first half hour of trading today. Sigh. Oil saved my bacon again, though. It would have been a rotten day otherwise.
The highlighted area indicates the Fed zaniness. Usually the market goes stark raving mad after an announcement. This swing was actually really modest. I guess the lack of volatility has extended even to the most extreme of events. It was a snoozer, pretty much.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0920-indu.jpg
As I mentioned, oil (OIH in particular) continues to go great. We've got an honest to goodness breakdown, with a beautiful head and shoulders pattern, post-retracement, at this point. This is textbook perfect.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0920-oih.jpg
The gold and silver index, $XAU, seems a bit stuck at its retracement level. It is even more of a huge head and shoulders pattern than OIH, but it hasn't broken down yet.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0920-xau.jpg
The S&P had another strong day. Indeed, it's been disgustingly strong since mid-July. We haven't seen this much consistent strength since last autumn. We're either at a double top or - - with our luck lately - - we've got plenty of room left (green shaded area) on the upside. Oh, I'll mention this a hundredth time for those who missed it - - click on any image to see a bigger image.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0920-spx.jpg
The Russell 2000, on a long-term basis, is obviously far, far above its "Internet bubble" highs. It broke those long ago.
11111111
The Russell 2000, on a long-term basis, is obviously far, far above its "Internet bubble" highs. It broke those long ago.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0920-rutlongterm.jpg
At this point, if it breaks through the horizontal line shown at 742.26, we're in even bigger trouble than we are already. That would be extremely bullish.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0920-rut.jpg
One stock I happened to come across today is CAL (Continental Airlines). Looks like another nice short/put-buying opportunity with a pretty low-risk stop price.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0920-cal.jpg
Things still haven't turned to the bear's favor. Not at all. I'm glad for OIH, at least. That, and a lot of related stocks, have been doing wonderfully poorly (which is good for the bears).
at 9/20/2006 57 insightful comments
http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif Links to this post
Labels: cal, fed announcement, oih, oil
Newer Posts Older Posts Home
111111111
Tuesday, September 19, 2006Post Three Hundred
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0919-al.jpg
Oil Services Sector (OIH) was looking a little iffy yesterday as it retraced, but it still is behaving nicely. We want to break the level cited to make this an honest-to-goodness fall-from-grace from the head and shoulders pattern.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0919-oih.jpg
at 9/19/2006 28 insightful comments
http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif Links to this post
111111111111
Monday, September 18, 2006Another Go-Nowhere Session
Snore. I think the last time the market had any real direction was several years ago. This is just a snoozer. I guess we are in yet another wait-for-the-Fed situation (they announce Wednesday at 2:15 EST).
Old hurricane5 favorite HANS continues to look nice as a long-term short play, which has worked its way back up to its fan line.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0918-hans.jpg
Same with hurricane5 favorite NTRI.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0918-ntri.jpg
I retract my earlier statement that GOOG was stale. It seems to have some life in it again, although it's hardly the dynamo it used to be. Below is its entire history since the IPO.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0918-goog.jpg
I posted earlier today about gold and oil, so you might want to take a look. Until tomorrow, ta-ta........
at 9/18/2006 70 insightful comments
http://www.blogger.com/img/icon18_edit_allbkg.gif Links to this post
Labels: goog, hans, ntri
11111111111