Friday, October 06, 2006Bear Goggles
Lest anyone think otherwise, rest assured my bearish view on the market is still quite intact. It's been frustrating. It's been hard. It's been expensive. But I look at a lot of charts, and I am still absolutely convinced there's a lot more potential on the downside than the up. I guess I'm wearing bear goggles.
Take a look at one simple chart - the SPY. You can see the channel. You can see the median line. Now, regardless of whether you're a bull or a bear, tell me something: based on the behavior of the past two years, do you think it's more likely this will be lower or higher a few months from now? (dramatic pause) That's what I thought.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1006-spy.jpg
RIMM is looking sweet. It's got a beautiful shooting star candlestick pattern, and I think we can all agree this has had a fast, furious run-up in price.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1006-rimm.jpg
For balance, I offer something that looks like a good buy. The symbol is BLUD. This is a solid looking pattern.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1006-blud.jpg
Here's to a better week next week, ladies and gents. This one can soon be forgotten.
at 10/06/2006 27 insightful comments
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Labels: blud, rimm, spy
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Thursday, October 05, 2006What Does It Mean?
Another new high on the Dow today. I'm as confused as you are.
I was amused to see the cover story on Newsweek. For contrary thinkers out there, maybe this is another sign that oil's recent plunge is done for now and you should go bullish. I certainly have.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1005-%24newsweek.jpg
The recent breakout in the Dow leaves us thinking: what does it mean? Two possibilities are (1) a sustained, meaningful breakout, past 12,000 and beyond; or (2) a fake breakout.
I was looking at a century-looking chart of the Dow 30, and I saw something fascinating. Check this out (clicking on the image for a bigger version):
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1005-%24formerindu.jpg
As you can see by the circle, there was a breakout in 1972. The pattern is similar to what we're seeing today. A long struggle to get past a major milestone (back then, it was Dow 1,000 as opposed to Dow 11,750). It broke out in Autumn - just like now - and it pushed the Dow up another 4% or so until January. Then, voom, it started plunging hard.
Does that mean this is what will happen this time? I don't know. Maybe. But it at least proves that a new breakout, even on a major index, doesn't guarantee a sustained movement to the upside. Here's what our own market looks like in the present day:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1005-%24recentindu.jpg
I was disappointed - very - that one of my last holdouts, Russell 2000, pushed through resistance today. As prior breakouts indicate, this could be very bullish for this index. I've shaded in green the movement following similar breakouts. I'm no longer in this position and currently am holding a mixed bag of puts and calls (the latter being mostly in energy).
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1005-rutbreakout.jpg
at 10/05/2006 33 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, breakout, fibonacci fans, new high, oil
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Wednesday, October 04, 2006Pain in 3-D
"That's why I'm looking this bull straight in the face and laughing at it. Savor the moment, pal. You're about to get wasted."
But this is something to keep in mind - - I can deal with getting blown out of positions. But I don't hang on. That's why I say, over and over - always have a stop in place. Always! Take PNRA, for instance. I bought puts on it. Some people said I was wrong to do so. Turns out they were right. That's fine. I can deal with the loss. But if I had just hung on (past the circled point, where I got pushed out of the position), now that would be stupid.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-%24pnra.jpg
As enamored as I've been with OIH shorts, I closed out my energy shorts today, including OIH. I think the selling in energy and gold is really overdone. There are hammer patterns all over the place today!
So I'm going to blow away my reputation as a permabear by offering what I think are interesting stocks to consider buying (yes, buying) or buying calls on (that's right - I said calls). I still have lots of put positions, and plenty of shorts. But there's no denying the force of buying at this point. (By the way, the meaning of the 3D in my subject title today means 3 Digits - - a triple point rise in the Dow). And so I offer these tickers for your consideration. The stop prices should be pretty obvious........(and I've included volume where I think it's important):
Google (GOOG) which looks like it's pushing through a medium term trendline.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-goog.jpg
HOV:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-hov.jpg
HRS:
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HRS:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-hrs.jpg
JEC:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-jec.0.jpg
MEE, which was a great short for a while and now seems to be firming up:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-mee.jpg
MLM:
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MLM:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-mlm.jpg
NEM which is a good play on a bounce in gold:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-nem.jpg
NOV:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-nov.jpg
OII:
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OII:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-oii.jpg
PBR:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-pbr.jpg
PXD:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-pxd.jpg
RBAK, which is looking really fantastic, particularly when you check out the volume:
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RBAK, which is looking really fantastic, particularly when you check out the volume:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-rbak.0.jpg
RYL:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-ryl.jpg
SII:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-sii.jpg
X, which is nearing a supporting trendline:
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-8 11:55 编辑 ]
X, which is nearing a supporting trendline:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-x.jpg
And, finally, the $XAU (gold/silver index) which, yes, looks like a massive head and shoulders pattern, but in my opinion is really at a major support line right now and is quite oversold.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1004-xau.jpg
Before anyone starts running around saying the top is here because Trader Tim the Permabear is buying stuff, let me be clear - I've still got plenty of shorts. I still think the market is ultimately in for a big wipe-out. But there are plenty of stocks right now, especially related to energy and metals, that look really sweet on the upside.
Now - - - back to eating my humble pie.
at 10/04/2006 38 insightful comments
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Labels: $xau, goog, hov, hrs, jec, mee, nem, rbak, ryl
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Tuesday, October 03, 2006Big Swinging Dow
Now let's get on with our business of busting some bull heads.
My frequent - nay, incessant - recommendations to short all things oil has obviously been great advice. OIH and its components got nuked today, and the beauty part is that the pattern is sexier than ever. I mean, just look at this thing. It's gorgeous.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1003-oih.jpg
As for the Dow itself, here's a minute bar graph of the past sixty trading days. Notice anything interesting about the upward surges? That's right - they're getting shorter and shorter, weaker and weaker. All the bull's energy has been poured into getting onto the front page of the Daily Bugle. Well, you've done it, fellas. BFD. Congratulations.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1003-indu.jpg
The bottom line for me is this - I've got over 80 positions, about 70 puts and 10 shorts, in all kinds of different industries. And my portfolio value went up today. That's why I'm looking this bull straight in the face and laughing at it. Savor the moment, pal. You're about to get wasted.
at 10/03/2006 143 insightful comments
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Labels: new high, oih
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Monday, October 02, 2006Cool Water
Greetings, beloved bears.
Although today seemed like a total yawner (Dow down just a few points), it was actually a great day for my portfolios. Oil's weakness (and I am using OIH as my basis, even though obviously that's not crude oil) has been great, and it just keeps getting better. I'm maintaining something like 80 different positions, all puts, and they're doing dandy.
The volatility index, $VIX, is low, low down, and I like that. Because I think it's about to churn upward again. Check out the supporting trendline.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1002-vix.jpg
I mentioned the picture-perfect Fibs on the QQQQs last week, and these are behaving very nicely. The $NDX was much weaker today than the other averages.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1002-qqqq.jpg
Speaking of OIH, here's an update. I know I post this graph virtually every day, but it's such a honey, it's worthy of our constant care and attention.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/1002-oih.jpg
The question, of course, is how far down will crude go? I'm thinking about $53 or so in the near term, based on this continuous contract graph.
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