The $OEX, bless its heart, broke under its trendline, and it's struggling to mount it again. I think it will fail. Which means we here will succeed.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0911-newoex.jpg
Here's a lovely example of the power of trendlines. ATW broke under its trendline. It struggled mightily (as the $OEX is now) to get back up. It kissed the trendline. Then - - sayonara, cowboy.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0911-newatwrepelled.jpg
Genentech (DNA) gives us a great example of a failed pattern. This was a gorgeous saucer shaping up. Even I mentioned it as a bullish pick (gack, gack, cough). Today changed the picture. No more saucer.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0911-newdna.jpg
Although I have no position in GRMN, this might be a nice head & shoulders pattern which is nearly completed.
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Although I have no position in GRMN, this might be a nice head & shoulders pattern which is nearly completed.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0911-newgrmn.jpg
The same applies to HYDL.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0911-newhydl.jpg
This market is a lot more fun these days. Hopefully there won't be a "gee, no attack on 9/11 anniversary" rally tomorrow. The bulls will buy based on just about any premise. Anyway, see you here on Tuesday.
at 9/11/2006 115 insightful comments
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Monday, September 11, 2006Gold, Oil, and the Fifth Anniversary
I read in the comments section how my (cringing) post of bullish picks was the sign of capitulation and a turning point. He's right. If I - the bear of bears - the Cassandra of Cassandras - start hunting for something to buy, you know that the market's about to fall. And so it has. All this great contrary advice for free!
For those of you who just flew in from a deep-space colony, today marks the solemn 5th anniversary of the attack on America. I preserved my email that day, shown below. Note the interesting subject lines that precede and follow it. My favorite is "Development goes on" from our dearly departed Alex.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0911-emails.jpg
So - - oil - - OIH - - has finally broken its neckline! YES! Huzzah! Cheers and felicitations! Traditional H&S measurement methods would indicate a fall down to $90. I'm not so sure. The traditional measurement rarely works, in my experience. Suffice it to say those of us positioned bearishly on oil are having a fantastic morning. I know I am.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0911-oih.jpg
Gold is likewise getting clobbered (and, likewise, I've been pointing to it as a great short). Unlike OIH, the H&S is in formation, not complete. But it's a honey. And if it does complete, the gold bugs are going to be chased away for another twenty years.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0911-xau.jpg
It wasn't that long ago that we were flooded with advertisements and marketing messages about gold. $2,000/ounce gold. Buy, buy, buy! I guess I'm not the only one that creates contrary indicators.
at 9/11/2006 24 insightful comments
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Friday, September 08, 2006September Straightens Up
First, a tip of the paw to a blog reader Paul who was kind enough me. The bear clip is pretty funny.
It was a pretty good week. Gold and oil were particularly good to us bears. Even though the stock indexes were up today, all my portfolios went up (in spite of being 100% bearish) simply because they are so loaded with oil and gold shorts. OIH is looking really sweet, and maybe that H&S pattern isn't so apt to be foresaken after all........
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0908-oih.jpg
If the $INDU starts falling, I've marked what I think are the natural points of support. If it makes its way down to the 10,700 zone, there is a ton of support, both in terms of the Fib retracement as well as a trendline - - plus the fact that 10,600 has been an ungodly strong support zone. If it truly manage to bust below 10,600, then 10,000 is the next huge brick wall. It would take something really, really serious to get us below 10,000 within the next year or so.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0908-indu.jpg
The $OEX reached its tippy top early this week and has been easing back. I think it's unlikely these broader indexes are going to show such strength any time in the near future.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0908-oex.jpg
Same with the $SPX - this is a longer-term view.
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Same with the $SPX - this is a longer-term view.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0908-spx.jpg
The $UTIL had been a really steady ascender for years, but it brokes its trendline long ago and has been in a trading range. It's very near the top of that range, and I've highlighted the fairly substantial amount of distance it could fall before reaching its next major support zone.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0908-util.jpg
As I mentioned, gold has been doing great (for bears) and although this H&S pattern is even iffy-er than OIH's, it could still happen. As you can see from my clumsy drawing, it's a good thing I never tried to become a surgeon. Many lives have been saved.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0908-xau.jpg
Have a good weekend, and I'll hope to see you Monday afternoon.
at 9/08/2006 30 insightful comments
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Thursday, September 07, 2006
Long entries like yesterday's take a lot of time, so I'm going to make it shorter today. I must say, it was heartening to see this headline at the top of Marketwatch:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0907-bears.jpg
So why not t-shirt, mug, or mouse pad to celebrate, eh?
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0907-shirt.jpg
This is anecdotal, but here in the Silicon Valley, the sky-high home prices are starting to look awfully toppy. I personally tried to sell my second home (a 1400 sq. ft. basic house on a 6000 s.f. lot) for $1.4 million. Guess what? No takers! What a surprise, eh?
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0907-homeprices.jpg
This graph has been shown here umpteen times, but oil has been so good to me, I just have to keep showing it. It could do great things for us. But it needs to stay weak!
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0907-oih.jpg
Lastly, here are positions from two of my accounts (I manage four accounts personally). All of 'em puts or shorts, of course!
Let's go for a three-peat tomorrow, OK?
at 9/07/2006 66 insightful comments
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Wednesday, September 06, 2006Failure to Launch
Today's entry is going to be a bit rushed since I've got a business meeting/dinner to rush to........but I can tell you I felt a lot better about today than I did about yesterday (and the thirty days preceding it...) I had my best percentage gain since July 21st, and weakness in oil was especially helpful. I think what the bulls had on their hands today was:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0906-failure.jpg
The Dow Industrials is reaching the apex of a triangle. Something has got to give. Either the bulls are going to pull strength out of some mysterious place I can't imagine (the discovery of $500 billion of gold underneath a South Dakota farm, perhaps?) or the bears are going to finally step up, as is their duty, and wipe out civilization. We're all waiting........
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0906-indu.jpg
The NDX failed below its trendline today. This is not good for the bulls. They got it up, but they couldn't keep it up. One day does not a trend make, by any means, but today was owned by the bears. One day beats the hell out of none.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0906-ndx.jpg
The Transports don't seem to be mounting a comeback. This is one of the few indexes in an honest to goodness bear market, and it looks like it's going to resume the swoon.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0906-tran.jpg
There is a possible H&S on the $XAU, but it's going to take quite a bit of luck. I've etched out a possible pattern here. As the highlighted area shows, there's plenty of work left to be done before we've got a complete pattern. But - - hope springs eternal, right, boys & girls?
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There is a possible H&S on the $XAU, but it's going to take quite a bit of luck. I've etched out a possible pattern here. As the highlighted area shows, there's plenty of work left to be done before we've got a complete pattern. But - - hope springs eternal, right, boys & girls?
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0906-xau.jpg
The $XMI - the index that has been scaring me the most - has once again failed. It still has a chance of blasting into full bullish mode, but today didn't do the bulls any favors.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0906-xmi.jpg
Now some choice stocks, all of which I own puts on, and which I offer as suggestions out of the goodness of my heart and a love for my readers. Black & Decker:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0906-bdk.jpg
Cabot, which is getting zapped nicely:
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Cabot, which is getting zapped nicely:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0906-cog.jpg
EOG, which is doing terrific:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0906-eog.jpg
HAL, big Dick Cheney's old employer, which is also getting kicked sweetly:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0906-hal.jpg
Marathon Oil is doing terrific:
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Marathon Oil is doing terrific:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0906-mro.jpg
I'm on the fence about Sears. Yesterday I said bullish. Today I say bearish. I'm a capricious one, aren't I? This one could go either way. I own puts. There, I said it. I'm a bear on this one. But who knows?
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0906-shld.jpg
SLB (I'm not even going to try to spell it) is also getting nuked beautifully.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0906-slb.jpg
And Textron - for all I know, they could be in the business of whoopee cushion distribution - - they're all just ticker symbols to me, people - - is a honey.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger2/945/1439/400/0906-txt.jpg
More days like today, please! I'm a lot more charming when I'm making money.
P.S. As for the recent "Best Financial Blogs" - I'm a touch offended! C'mon, Charles Kirk is a cool dude, and bless his heart for linking folks to our site sometimes, but Jiminy Cricket, this blog - if I may say so - kicks the ass of most of the other blogs mentioned.......and The Kirk Report makes every single "best of the blogs" list. Harumph. Well, maybe time will change things. TASC is going to feature this blog in October and November. There, rant is over.
at 9/06/2006 80 insightful comments
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