I humbly offer a few short suggestions for your consideration. Here's Motorola:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0803-mot.jpg
Transocean (RIG), suggested earlier in this blog, which showed some nice weakness today:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0803-rig.jpg
And aging handsome dude Ralph Lauren:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0803-rl.jpg
Two big events are coming in the next three trading days: the jobs report (Friday, tomorrow) and the Fed (Tuesday). This is really our last, best hope to get the downward market we "should" get based on the market's behavior the past couple of months. If this strength continues, we're really going to have to re-evaluate.
at 8/03/2006 123 insightful comments
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Wednesday, August 02, 2006Drumming Fingers
My relationship with the market is pretty bad these days. I find it irksome and frustrating. Everyone seems completely obsessed with next Tuesday's Fed announcement. So everything is in kind of a weird holding pattern until then.
Just as yesterdays 100+ point drop got shaved before the close, today's 100+ point gain got shaved too. The Dow 30 is still below (but, again, just barely below) the "safety line" shown here in red. This is an agonizingly tight spot. If the market continues to be strong, it's going to completely screw up mid-term bearish arguments. If the market falls, it will be textbook technical analysis. But if we have strength, it's time to get out and get out fast.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0802-indu.jpg
During the peak today, I felt a lot of oil service stocks had really reached their limits, so I bought some more puts there. OIH softened up a bit. I'd still say $152 is a good stop loss point for OIH and, in principal, the component parts of it as well (at different prices, obviously).
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0802-oih.jpg
The S&P 500 is clinging to that line like there's no tomorrow. Click on the image to see it more clearly. There's an ascending resistance line that the price is just smooching, day after day. It's kind of weird, I must say, but at least it's predictable for the moment.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0802-spx.jpg
If the markets move higher, I've got to believe $TRAN will be especially strong. It's had a horrible time recently, losing the equivalent of about 1,800 Dow points from its peak. But it's at two major support zones right now, and it could easily bounce higher from here given any general market strength.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0802-tran.jpg
at 8/02/2006 93 insightful comments
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Monday, July 31, 2006Wanted: Clear Direction. Please!
The Dow was down 34 points today. Big deal. This market is so boring these days. There's just no direction. A little tug up. A little tug down. Intraday graphs are like spasms. The S&P 500 is basically exactly where it was when 2006 began. It went up a while. Then it went down a while. And now it's up a little. Zzzzzzzzzzzz........
Oh, before I forget, this blog is now part of the Ticker Sense poll. Thanks, guys! Is there a way to auto-click the Bearish radio button?
If you have the time and the interest, here's a fascinating (and long) article about large economic trends, particularly centered around debt and interest rates. Bottom line is that a recession is virtually a foregone conclusion.
Oh, one other thing. By happenstance, I found this KlipFolio product. Download it - it's free! And you can add your favorite blog (ahem) to it.
I have two standards for judging new software: does it work right/feel right immediately out of the box (the answer for Klip: yes!) And am I still using it in a couple of weeks? (We shall see!) I've sometimes become jazzed about stuff that I never touch again. Which means, to me, it's not useful. Klip seems awfully cool, though.
OK, on to charts. And there's a bunch of 'em today. Because I've got to believe the market will eventually snap out of this boring funk. And, if there's a God (or at least a sensible God), the market will fall big-time. So let's be prepared, Scouts.
HANS has been fascinating to me for a long time. It has bagged a nearly 10,000% gain over the past couple of years, and I think everyone on the planet is waiting for it to snap at some point. Here's the astonishing graph. Some people have become very, very rich on this stock:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-hans.jpg
Let's take a closer look. This graph is more recent, and it features two moving averages on the price graph as well as a moving average on the volume graph. Notice a few things. First, volume is really starting to soften on this stock. Second, the 50 day moving average hasn't crossed below the 100 day moving average in a very long time. I'd take this as a strong sell signal if it does. To be honest, I'm short the stock already. I guess I (foolishly) want to get in early on what I hope will happen.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-hansmovingaverages.jpg
I want to put the S&P graph up again simply because it's so beautiful. You can see all the drawn objects I've laid down on this graph. It would take an amazing amount of bull power (you can think of a more colorful term) to turn this market decisively upward. But it's happened before. The jury is still out right now. There are many strong forces at work that could rip the guts out of this market.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-spx.jpg
From here on out are graphs with stop prices. Simple. I think all of the following charts are optionable, so you might want to pick up puts. The stop price I cite is the price above which the position should be closed. First up: AMG 95.05
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From here on out are graphs with stop prices. Simple. I think all of the following charts are optionable, so you might want to pick up puts. The stop price I cite is the price above which the position should be closed. First up: AMG 95.05
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-amg9505.jpg
ATW 50.64
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-atw5064.jpg
DIA 112.56
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-dia11256.jpg
HUM 58.26
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HUM 58.26
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-hum5826.jpg
IYR 75.02
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-iyr7502.jpg
MER 73.50
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-mer7350.jpg
MO 81
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MO 81
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-mo81.jpg
MON 43.86
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-mon4386.jpg
OIH 152
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0731-oih152.jpg
Good luck! And, remember boys and girls, if you want to see a bigger graph, just click on any of the small images. Click Back to return to this blog. See ya....
at 7/31/2006 37 insightful comments
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Friday, July 28, 2006Sheesh
I, for one, am glad to see this week is over. On the whole, it sucked for bears. Ever since June 14, the bulls have, more or less, been at the steering wheel. We've had some hopeful days now and then, but the sad fact of the matter is that we still get triple-digit push-ups like today on the most feeble of news.
I feel exactly like I did when I wrote in May. Interestingly enough, my feelings of despair at that time precisely match the peak of the market. To the day! So maybe there's a little hope, eh?
There were a few bright points this week, like the nuking of some Insurance stocks. But more and more bulls are getting heartened by recent activity, and you can smell the stink from the media about how rosy everything is. Apparently a slowing economy is great news.
I see the comments section is more active than ever. I don't even want to walk into that bar. God knows what is going on.
The Dow Jones 30 is still - but just barely - in a safe place for bears. I've pointed out five levels. Exceeding each one will make things progressively worse (and if it goes above 5, I'm going to enter the exciting world of retail shoe sales). This is an extremely dangerous juncture.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0728-indu.jpg
The note on the chart for the $OEX speaks for itself.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0728-oex.jpg
Below is an intraday (minute by minute) chart of the $SPX. It has obediently stayed under the trendline. Now, that's all well and good, but given enough time, the S&P 500 go climb to 10,000 and still be below this line. But at least this slender wall is holding up.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0728-spxintraday.jpg
Jeez, I hope next week is better than this one. I enjoyed early June a hell of a lot more than this.
at 7/28/2006 57 insightful comments
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Thursday, July 27, 2006Midnight Posting
It's approaching midnight here in Palo Alto. In less than six hours, they're going to report GDP numbers, and supposedly they will give the market a reason to go either up or down. Very few people will read this before those numbers are released, but I'm posting this new entry anyway.
Based on the charts I'm seeing, I'm predicting a down day, and I'm doing it without the benefit of those figures. So I'll either look like a jackass or a jeanyus. Either way, it'll start with "j".
The Dow Composite looks ready to get pushed back away from its resistance line. When will the bulls ever give up?
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-comp.jpg
The Dow Jones 30 had its second doji in a rowing. Can you say spinning tops? I also have drawn another (smaller) Fibonacci retracement, this one spanning from the May top to the ~10,650 level we keep bouncing away from. Interestingly, today marked the 50% retracement point. Coincidence? I think not!
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-indu.jpg
I haven't bothered putting up a NASDAQ chart in ages just because this poor index is so battered and bruised, it's hardly worth looking at. But we clearly see a steady progression of lower lows and lower highs. Which is the very definition of a (loving sigh) bear market.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-nasdaq.jpg
The S&P has done a great job staying underneath the medium-term resistance line, and it seems to have run out of gas. It fell today in a lovely bearish engulfing pattern.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-spx.jpg
A few days ago, I mentioned the Transports were probably done selling off. Boy, was I wrong. This index has sold off harder than any of the other major indices in the past few days. It is approaching major, major support right now. If it cracks the trendline and Fib retracement, wow, I don't know where it's going (except down).
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A few days ago, I mentioned the Transports were probably done selling off. Boy, was I wrong. This index has sold off harder than any of the other major indices in the past few days. It is approaching major, major support right now. If it cracks the trendline and Fib retracement, wow, I don't know where it's going (except down).
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-tran.jpg
Have the Dow Utilities made a double top? This is the only index with strength over the past month, but it backed off without making a new high today.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-util.jpg
Gold also seems to have turned 'round.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-xau.jpg
Well, I'm going to walk the dogs. See you in the a.m.
at 7/27/2006 76 insightful comments
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Peter'd Out
Our bull friends need to recognize that it's important not only to GET it up, but to KEEP it up. Delighted to see this fizzle away today. That bodes well.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-peteredout.jpg
at 7/27/2006 17 insightful comments
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Thursday, July 27, 2006Insurance Fibs
No, this isn't a post on insurance fraud. Just wanted to share a couple of stocks on which I own puts that got clobbered today. Thank you, Mr. Fibonacci!
Aetna:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-aet.jpg
Cigna:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0727-ci.jpg
Oh, I see the bullish 70 point gain today has been destroyed and we're now showing a loss on all major indices. Zzzzzzzzzziiiiiiiiiip. Suck on it, fellas.
at 7/27/2006 9 insightful comments
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