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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-10 18:27 编辑 ]
Tuesday, June 13, 2006A Bounce is Very Likely
I've got to be quick; I've got a plane to catch! I believe:
+ We're firmly in a bear market
+ Any rises should be viewed as shorting opportunities
+ The nature of the market has utterly changed
However, I also think we're very, very, very due for a bounce. A few quick graphs:
The NASDAQ Composite is at a major Fib retracement level.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0613-compq.jpg
The Dow 30 is also at a major Fib level, added to which there is quite a bit of support at this level (see highlighted area in green).
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0613-indu.jpg
The NASDAQ 100 is also at a key Fib level, after been hammered over the past six weeks.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0613-ndx.jpg
And the $VIX has gone stark, raving mad sky-high. This explosion of panic has to subside temporarily.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0613-vix.jpg
One other thing before I go. A few months ago, I tightened up the rules for posting on this blog. You had to be registered. All comments were moderated. And although it cut down on some of the obnoxious messages, I feel that it is impeding the free flow of ideas.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0613-bouncebacks.jpg
My anticipation - - instead of simply tightening up my stops - - cost me a huge amount of missed profits in a matter of hours, and if I want to get back into these positions, it will be at a much higher price and much higher risk. Not good.
So I feel I have royally screwed up by not following my own bearish advice. For those of you hanging tough, my hat is off to you. This is a different market, and the bears are in control. I should have more faith in my own people.
at 6/13/2006 16 insightful comments
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Monday, June 12, 2006Wheeeeeeeeeeee!
Oh, it is going to be SWEET today, fellow bears. It's a whole new ball game. Lots to say tonight...........Tim
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0612-suckonthis.jpg
at 6/12/2006 8 insightful comments
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Friday, June 09, 2006Is that all you bulls can muster?
Sheesh. So much for the hammers yesterday. You bulls had so much going for you. A severely oversold condition (600 points off the Dow in 3.5 days). A huge bounce-back rally yesterday and all the media clatter that accompanies it. The green patch in the chart below represents the entirety of the follow-through rally today.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0609-muster.jpg
Of course, the market fell in the end. I think people are kind of freaked out at recent market activity and didn't want to go into the weekend exposed. So there's still a chance of an upward push Monday. But it's clear to me that we bears own this bad boy.
at 6/09/2006 12 insightful comments
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Thursday, June 08, 2006Amazing, Amazing, Amazing
I tried, people, I really, really tried.
Here's the graph of the S&P on a minute-by-minute basis, pointing out the exact moment when I closed everything and wanted to get the blog posted:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-closeitall.jpg
Here is the image of the graph I took at that time illustrating why I felt the NASDAQ had bottomed out for now:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-qqqq.jpg
And here's the gorgeous channel on the S&P 500, illustrating a perfect touchpoint on the support line. This was far and away the biggest reason I felt it was time to get the hell out of Dodge.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-spx.jpg
As you well know by now, the markets did a total "V" today. This has resulted in more hammers than a Home Depot tool aisle. Here's the NASDAQ Composite:
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As you well know by now, the markets did a total "V" today. This has resulted in more hammers than a Home Depot tool aisle. Here's the NASDAQ Composite:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-compq.jpg
The Dow 30 hit its Fibonaaci marvelously.......
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-indufib.jpg
....as did the S&P 100........
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-oex.jpg
The Gold & Silver index ($XAU) looks so oversold I think it's ready to push back to the underside of its former support line.
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The Gold & Silver index ($XAU) looks so oversold I think it's ready to push back to the underside of its former support line.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-xau.jpg
Of course, the big question is: what's next? It's great that we've had such a nice quick ride down (nearly 600 points in just under four sessions). But what now?
I think we're clearly in a bear market now. So the fun is really starting. The key is to avoid the occasional upswings (or even profit from them). With all the hammers around, I've got to believe there's a strong chance we've bottomed out for now and should just step aside until we get back to safer levels. I would mention in passing, however, that the $VIX looks like it's making a nice series of higher highs and higher lows, which suggests that today's late-day surge might simply be another setup for yet another fall.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0608-vix.jpg
I am 100% in cash now and am at least going to wait until 10:00 EST on Friday to see what the market's doing. If it looks like it has any reasonable strength, I think I'm just going to keep sitting this one out.
at 6/08/2006 2 insightful comments
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Wednesday, June 07, 2006Love It
Let's not get too relaxed, however. Our friends the bulls are trying each day to turn things around. The NASDAQ Composite, shown below on an intraday basis (click it for a larger graph) illustrates it's having trouble getting below about 2,150. It needs to decisively crack this level to add to the bearish cash pile.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0607-compq.0.jpg
The Dow 30 likewise has a triple bottom (although it's over such a small amount of time, it's not a very meaningful one). We're below 11,000 now, which is psychologically significant.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0607-indu.jpg
Looking at the Dow 30, this time on a daily basis, it seems we've got a nice, clean path to 10,500. I base this on both head & shoulder measurements as well as the location of the Fibonacci retracements. We are plainly below the major ascending trendline that's been in place over three years now. Life is finally getting sweet.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0607-indudaily.jpg
There is a major Fibonacci level at about 1,250 on the S&P 500. If we crack through 1,245 (which should be easy) it's going to be very smooth sailing for the bears.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0607-spx.jpg
The one and only index I pointed out last month as risky for the bears was the American Stock Exchange's Major Market Index ($XMI). It had been forming an inverted head & shoulders pattern. This index has done us the kindest of deeds: the formation has failed, and a (smaller) bearish head & shoulders has formed. For a major bullish pattern to fail in its formation is excellent, excellent news. Thanks, $XMI!
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0607-xmidaily.jpg
I don't really have any specific stocks to talk about, simply because there are too many. I am delighted with my dozens of positions (all of them puts), which are shown in their entirety here:
at 6/07/2006 3 insightful comments
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Tuesday, June 06, 2006Decision Time
Another down day on the market, which is fine and dandy, but at this point I think one of two things is going to happen: (a) we're going to get another multi-day push upward in the market or (b) we're going to see another meaningful down day Wednesday (meaningful being greater than 100 points) at which point we'll all realize we're not in Kansas anymore.
As much as I'd love to see some new lows created, I'm thinking (a) is probably more likely. More on that in a moment. A quick look at yesterday's short recommendations shows 3 of the 4 with handsome drops, and the 1 that went up was up quite modestly. Overall, the four suggestions got zapped nicely (in just one day, no less).
ANDE down 5.43%
COF up .83%
MTH down 2.55%
TOA down 7.89%
The NASDAQ Composite, on a daily chart, looks like it's easing up on its desire to fall hard.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0606-compqdaily.jpg
The same chart for the past several weeks on a minute-by-minute basis clearly shows the double bottom (indeed, the most recent bottom today was higher than the earlier one, which is, sadly, bullish).
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0606-compq.jpg
The Dow Industrials has hit two areas of support. One of them is a large trendline extending back to October (which is actually pierced today, but it closed above it). And second is a Fibonacci retracement level. The head and shoulders is complete, but it's a pretty scrawny one.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0606-indudaily.jpg
As with the NASDAQ, the intraday seems to suggest a short-term double bottom.
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As with the NASDAQ, the intraday seems to suggest a short-term double bottom.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0606-indu.jpg
One clue the S&P 500 daily chart (using a candlestick format) gives us is the spinning top. As you can see, the spinning top that took place a couple of weeks ago preceded a recovery rally. I've got a feeling we may see a replay of that here with today's similar spinning top.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0606-spxdaily.jpg
At the risk of being a broken record, we see on an intraday basis a substantial double bottom forming here.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0606-xmi.jpg
If we get another push up, I think that's just going to add to everyone's frustration. Bulls are sick of the carpet being yanked out from under them, and bears are sick of not being able to get serious about a steady, persistent bear market. If the market does get walloped Wednesday (improbable, but possible) we bears can focus a lot more about profiting from long-term disintegration instead of this hurky jerky nonsense.
at 6/06/2006 7 insightful comments
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Monday, June 05, 2006Another Bounce.....or Get Serious?
First, I apologize for the late posting. It's well past midnight here in California, and a combination of a busy day and Blogger's uploading capability being down for two hours contributed to burning the midnight oil.
The 200 point drop on the Dow Monday put a spring in my step. The market's behavior aligns nicely with what I'm been predicting. There's one particular daily market letter which, each day, puts in some bearish text and some bullish text and, the next day, puts in whatever was appropriate (after the fact) at the top of the new posting to make it seem like they were right on the money. No such games here. I'm going to always take the chance to state my mind about the market's direction.
As much of a mega-bear as I am, I'm still not ready to start waving the Flag of Doom yet. There's a reasonable chance of a bounce tomorrow (which would be a real drag, since these stupid bull bounces get really boring and tiresome; and they seem like a waste of time to me, since it seems we should get to the real business of a market wipe-out instead of all this pussyfooting around). The $VIX is shown below on an intraday basis. As the red line indicates, we bumped up against resistance today. The VIX really needs to cut through this line before it can move appreciably higher.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0605-vix.jpg
But the action over the past couple of weeks has been superb. Look at the NASDAQ Composite below. A break, a retracement, and then a fall again. Beautiful.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0605-compq.jpg
Here's a closer look at the NASDAQ so you can see in greater detail the textbook performance (the newbies out there: you can always click any of these images to see a bigger version).
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0605-compqcloseup.jpg
The Dow 30 is right on the cusp of completing its head and shoulders pattern. It's not the most massive H&S I've ever seen, but it fits the definition. If it breaks the neckline, we could see this heading to the green area I've shaded. As it is, I'm thinking it'll at least push down toward the circled red area, which is roughly where the supporting trendline would hit the price action.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0605-indu.jpg
The Russell 2000 likely has an easy target on its supporting trendline. As I've pointed out before, notice how the most recent pattern was a rounded top (bearish) as opposed to the three saucers before (bullish).
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The Russell 2000 likely has an easy target on its supporting trendline. As I've pointed out before, notice how the most recent pattern was a rounded top (bearish) as opposed to the three saucers before (bullish).
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0605-rut.jpg
The S&P 500 likewise has a very technically-correct pattern.
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0605-spx.jpg
Let's look at a few specific recommendations. I like ANDE, although it is, unfortunately, not optionable:
http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/4311/970/400/0605-ande.jpg
Capital One (COF) is getting close to completing its H&S, which would send it down to the green area I've shaded.