QID, the double-inverse NASDAQ ETF, is fascinating in the sense that volume is exploding and the price is finally turning around. Hopefully this is the shape of things to come.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ2MUlmvOwI/AAAAAAAAAbk/SrK_175r3fo/s400/0104-qid.jpg
OXY is a good representative of the weakening oil stocks.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ2MU1mvOxI/AAAAAAAAAbs/0QfPNHq2Dig/s400/0104-oxy.jpg
Whereas the broad OIH continues to falter. I've been bearish on oil for a few weeks now.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ2MU1mvOyI/AAAAAAAAAb0/it9kC2_lT5U/s400/0104-oih.jpg
HYDL, mentioned here as a short before, is also enjoying a downdraft.
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HYDL, mentioned here as a short before, is also enjoying a downdraft.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ2MU1mvOzI/AAAAAAAAAb8/XAp-Ye2CauE/s400/0104-hydl.jpg
Although I haven't mentioned HP (the symbol, not the company) in a while, this is a gorgeous example of Fibonacci retracements in action. Magical!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ2MVFmvO0I/AAAAAAAAAcE/JlgIQPJvlzQ/s400/0104-hpfibs.jpg
Finally, RTI looks like it may have put in a double top.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZ2MB1mvOvI/AAAAAAAAAbc/JC7SkhD8GYs/s400/0104-rti.jpg
See you Friday afternoon......it'll probably be a late posting. It might not even happen until the weekend. But I'll get it done!
at 1/04/2007 26 insightful comments
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Labels: abby joseph cohen, abt, album covers, ba, bac, blud, dst, goog hal, hp, hydl, oih, oxy, qid, rti
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Wednesday, January 03, 2007Money Shot to Start the New Year
Greetings, my beloved fellow bears.
I introduce this year to you with some of the worst album covers of all time. Just to lighten the mood before we get down to business.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZxfMFmvOsI/AAAAAAAAAaM/XzY1y4KoZVo/s400/0103-%24church.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZxfMFmvOtI/AAAAAAAAAaU/6Jxp6SjDWpM/s400/0103-%24crusaders.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZxfMFmvOuI/AAAAAAAAAac/H3VUGwBrmU4/s400/0103-%24dead.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZxfDFmvOrI/AAAAAAAAAaE/qk-I1liW7IQ/s400/0103-%24mckeithers.jpg
A merciful God has spared us from listening to the contents of the above albums on this blog.
I have so much to say, but honestly, I'm on the world's slowest network. So I'll have to keep it relatively basic tonight.
I rarely read USA Today. It is to journalism what Pamela Anderson is to dramatic acting. But I happened to see its cover story on Ten Reasons the S&P 500 Could Make a New High in 2007.
It was the usually claptrap bulls - - including Abby (ack! cough) Joseph (hack!) Cohen - - like to smear around. I will spare you the list, but the 10th reason they provided: "Because records were meant to be broken." What a bunch of nimrods.
I was delighted, of course, with today's action. We entered this year with the bulls snorting like mad. The GLOBEX was up huge yesterday. Markets around the world soared, including the parabolic Chinese market. And every blessed article on the stock market talked about what a fantastic year 2007 was going to be for the bulls.
So the market shot higher by 130 points. And I gobbled up a ton of S&P puts. Then the market starting sinking. It turned the other direction 170 points, but finally closed the day up 10. All the same, I'm not complaining. Serving up disappointment to the bulls is always a delightful treat, and this is a great way to start the year.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZxe61mvOqI/AAAAAAAAAZ8/eUtKYjqcgNE/s400/0103-%24spxintrday.jpg
Here's the daily view of the S&P 500. Just take a look at today's range! What a tug-of-war!
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZxe0lmvOpI/AAAAAAAAAZ0/M4NJPil6wOo/s400/0103-%24spx.jpg
I've been promoting the $XAU as a short ever since about $149, and it continues to behave nicely. This is looking better every week.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZxetlmvOoI/AAAAAAAAAZs/pJrN_FYdsnk/s400/0103-%24xau.jpg
Now on for the straight charts. I am posting this so late, I don't have time for commentary, but I'll just lay the symbols out for you. BHI...
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Now on for the straight charts. I am posting this so late, I don't have time for commentary, but I'll just lay the symbols out for you. BHI...
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZxel1mvOnI/AAAAAAAAAZk/qb9EwMRBukQ/s400/0103-bhi.jpg
CERN
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZxeelmvOmI/AAAAAAAAAZc/S_T1_U6J8Y4/s400/0103-cern.jpg
FTO, whose head and shoulders continues to form beautifully:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZxeNFmvOlI/AAAAAAAAAZU/xxzwSpTkwsI/s400/0103-fto.jpg
GS:
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http://bbs.macd.cn/attachments.php?aid=1689843&noupdate=yes&3
飞剑蓝天
GS:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZxeFVmvOkI/AAAAAAAAAZM/8NSC_5wUjQI/s400/0103-gs.jpg
QQQQ (again, just look at that range, highlighted in light blue):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZxd91mvOjI/AAAAAAAAAZE/0P4pc3i0VrU/s400/0103-qqqq.jpg
RYL:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZxd2VmvOiI/AAAAAAAAAY8/9DwbcS_zjps/s400/0103-ryl.jpg
And gargantuan XOM:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZxdt1mvOhI/AAAAAAAAAY0/ARKpdTQiSg4/s400/0103-xom.jpg
I'm sorry for the relatively text-free post. But godspeed to you all, and for crying out loud, keep the comments germane (and non-anonymous, if you're able!)
at 1/03/2007 25 insightful comments
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Labels: $xau, bhi, cern, fto, qqqq, ryl
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-5 14:05 编辑 ]
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Wednesday, December 27, 200612,500
Wow. They finally did it. The bulls got the Dow over 12,500. 2006 is definitely going to be a year of great memories for the bulls. Congratulations, longhorns!
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxkL9nfoI/AAAAAAAAAYM/bheLrVPqyfs/s400/1228-%24indu.jpg
If you look at the performance of the various indices this year, you can see that - strangely - the Dow 30 is the king. Clearly mega-caps are on top of the world. The Dow is usually the boring, staid index compared to the likes of the NASDAQ. The laggard here is in fact the NASDAQ 100.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxf79nfnI/AAAAAAAAAYE/qE59jrPYpUg/s400/1228-%24comparison.jpg
One chart that provides some small bit of comfort to bears is of the S&P 500. Take a look at how the index has behaved within the confines of the channel I have drawn. It certainly seems that the time is pretty ripe for a push downward. We are completely mushed up against the highest bounds of the channel, and the time space between the arrows is calling for a fall.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxbb9nfmI/AAAAAAAAAX8/YhKsA8Qd7JI/s400/1228-%24spx.jpg
Anderson (ANDE) is a pretty handsome looking chart to buy (yes, buy). The volume is relatively anemic, however, and that's not a great confirmation sign.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxWb9nflI/AAAAAAAAAX0/LcMONlhqJ-4/s400/1228-ande.jpg
Immucor (BLUD), which I've mentioned many times in the past as a buy, continues to push higher. The higher it goes, the stronger it looks.
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Immucor (BLUD), which I've mentioned many times in the past as a buy, continues to push higher. The higher it goes, the stronger it looks.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxSb9nfkI/AAAAAAAAAXs/6R4rNystQVA/s400/1228-blud.jpg
Express Scripts (ESRX) actually fell today, in spite of the triple-digit rise on the Dow. I've always enjoyed this one as a bearish play, and I'm in it again.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxO79nfjI/AAAAAAAAAXk/ATAyWNr-2Sk/s400/1228-esrx.jpg
Google is still looking good for a fall, in spite of recent strength.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxKb9nfiI/AAAAAAAAAXc/2-vOuUQr1es/s400/1228-googlong.jpg
Looking closer, one could even suggest a small head and shoulders pattern recently. Today's big upward move was a nice retracement to the neckline.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RZLxE79nfhI/AAAAAAAAAXU/kHJX6cThAjs/s400/1228-goog.jpg
There are only two days left to the very tough year.......I suspect the bulls are going to just keep padding their gains.
Hope springs eternal. Come on, 2007 - - be kind to us!
at 12/27/2006 9 insightful comments
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Labels: $spx, ande, blud, goog, new high
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Friday, December 22, 2006Loving the Lump
Yesterday I wrote....
I was hoping for a nice nasty surprise from RIMM, but they had blowout earnings and their stock is way, way high in after hours trading. I wouldn't drop dead of shock if they ended the day down tomorrow. It's just a hunch. Maybe a completely stupid hunch, but a hunch nonetheless. I'm hanging on to these March puts.
Well, well, well. The hunch was right. RIMM was in record high territory after hours yesterday. Once reality started to sink in, the gains diminished, and the stock fell on the day. Let me be clear here: for a stock to go down significantly on a day when blow-out earnings are reported, blow-out projections are made, and record highs are made prior to the open........well, sweet dreams are made of this.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYxMJb9nfcI/AAAAAAAAAWY/vN59q94TAYw/s400/1222-rimm.jpg
I also still like the look of MCK. Maybe my hunches have a bit more credibility now. Plus the Fib fans.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYxMJr9nfdI/AAAAAAAAAWg/h7tr-imuB-w/s400/1222-mck.jpg
Bank of America isn't going to have a Google-sized (anticipated) fall. It's a major bank, after all. But I think the best days of this stock are through.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYxMJr9nfeI/AAAAAAAAAWo/283r12sC2j0/s400/1222-bac.jpg
$XAU has a lot of room left to free-fall.
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$XAU has a lot of room left to free-fall.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYxMJ79nffI/AAAAAAAAAWw/aEdN9QOXATo/s400/1222-%24xau.jpg
And although I'm not in an $MSH position (I'm in $NDX), this is a good prospective put purchase. Very toppy.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYxMJ79nfgI/AAAAAAAAAW4/UHvOKadIBxA/s400/1222-%24msh.jpg
This has nothing to do with trading, but I loved the Lisa Lampanelli bit of the William Shatner roast. As a lifelong Trek fan (of the Original Series......please!) I found the entire event a kick. You froo-froo types, don't bother. But if you want a good laugh and don't mind the raunch, here you go.....
Oh, and Merry Christmas, everyone. Let us look forward to a year of delivering lumps of coal to bulls - both naughty and nice - in the year ahead.
at 12/22/2006 30 insightful comments
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Labels: $msh, $xau, bac, mck, rimm
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Thursday, December 21, 2006RIMM Job
It's nice to feel on top of the market again. It's no disaster for the bulls, but days like this give one hope.
My shorts in $XAU (gold/silver), which a lot of commenters have slammed the past couple of weeks, are doing well. $XAU kind of gave up the ghost today. No more petite inching down. It fell in a meaningful way. This makes the likelihood of a meaty fall a lot stronger.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYsgpb9nfbI/AAAAAAAAAV0/cSzKm4nmSCM/s400/1221-%24xau.jpg
High-priced stocks like CME can lose double digits of dollars each day, which makes them great for put owners. It's getting closer to the trendline. Can it crack through?
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYsgpb9nfaI/AAAAAAAAAVs/I_qNzRXR1Bw/s400/1221-cme.jpg
TSO's top looks lovelier every passing day.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RYsgXb9nfVI/AAAAAAAAAVE/Mmx1wpDR3_w/s400/1221-tso.jpg
I got snookered into thinking Sears (SHLD) was going to be a superstock. But as I've reminded myself, and others - - it's Sears. Are polyester pantsuits coming back? Does every household need ten new lawnmowers? I confess I have no position in this stock, but I sure envy you put-holders out there.
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