HOLX also looks good, and has strong volume backing up its breakout.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzukKngs_I/AAAAAAAABNg/Xkpu0o9q4-s/s400/0221-LONGholx.jpg
IPS is also good for aggressive bulls.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdzukangtAI/AAAAAAAABNo/JKrGPzyK5hg/s400/0221-LONGips.jpg
The trouble I am having with conjuring up bullish ideas is that it's tough finding safe bullish patterns in a market this high. I could point out plenty of momentum plays, but I'm not really into taking advantage of the Greater Fool theory.
Good night, and I'll see you after the close Thursday.
at 2/21/2007 10 insightful comments
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Labels: $comp, $compq, $indu, $oex, bac cnx, bp, ccl, csco, dna, exc, fdx, holx, ips
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Friday, February 16, 2007I'm Goin' to Disneyworld!
This was a strong week for the bulls - particularly Wednesday - the bears can only hold on to the sliver of hope that upward momentum is still waning. That's not a heck of a lot to hang your hat on, though.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdY-k2_y1RI/AAAAAAAABMU/CIyzSgVQY-0/s400/0216-%24oex.jpg
Gold and Silver Index ($XAU) is in a bit of a stuck pattern. Shorting this with a stop at $145 might be a good play (via going long puts).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdY-Zm_y1KI/AAAAAAAABLc/9KAR1R8tI3Q/s400/0216-%24xau.jpg
Crude oil to me seems to be in a solid bearish pattern. If you believe this, there are all kinds of ways to take advantage of it (such as OIH, XOM, RIG......)
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdY-Z2_y1LI/AAAAAAAABLk/9QvCCYfH6Ao/s400/0216-crudeoil.jpg
I've gotten flack for my bullish suggestion of ANDE, but this still seems like a clean pattern to me.
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I've gotten flack for my bullish suggestion of ANDE, but this still seems like a clean pattern to me.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdY-Z2_y1MI/AAAAAAAABLs/x7pvwS3pxWw/s400/0216-ande.jpg
My NVDA puts picked up a bit of steam today.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdY-aG_y1NI/AAAAAAAABL0/sBwuciwVdQw/s400/0216-nvda.jpg
I've got to hand it to the SHLD bulls - this is a dynamite looking chart. Who would have ever thought Sears, of all things, would be a superstar?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdY-aG_y1OI/AAAAAAAABL8/gL5RozmwEMg/s400/0216-shld.jpg
I'm going to be in Orlando for a few days for my employer's mega-event. I'll be speaking a few times. Come up and say hello. Assassins - - aim for my head!
at 2/16/2007 34 insightful comments
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Labels: $xau, ande, new high, shld
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Thursday, February 15, 2007Seven Nation Army
I'm gonna fight 'em all
A seven nation army couldn't hold me back
They're gonna rip it off
Taking their time right behind my back
Another day, another lifetime high on the Dow. C'est la vie.
I mentioned BHI as a it got walloped. Even put options that are several months out doubled in value today. Oil in general (be it OIH or a component) is pretty attractive to my bearish eyes right now.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTnlm_y1JI/AAAAAAAABKo/gb19kDu63-I/s400/0215-%24bhi.jpg
I'm pretty proud of this graph, so click it to see a big version. It's a minute bar of the NZD/USD forex trade I've been suggesting. The symmetry between the phases I've shown here is really intriguing to me. I've numbered it for clarity. I've been trading it both up and down (long and short) during the most recent cycle. I imagine we're about ready to head back into a long tumble now. This is a really fun currency to trade, in spite of the wide pip spread.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTndW_y1EI/AAAAAAAABKA/66MOpOA7jQ0/s400/0215-%24newzealand.jpg
The Russell 2000 remains my favorite index on which to own puts right now. Put values have been getting creamed lately by (a) rapidly rising index values and (b) withering volatility premiums. A one-two punch. Call me crazy, but I am loading up on them at these levels.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTndW_y1FI/AAAAAAAABKI/iFD2r3CoAuA/s400/0215-%24rut.jpg
Allstate (ALL) has a dainty head and shoulders pattern that I think is worth trading, since it seems to have fully retraced.
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Allstate (ALL) has a dainty head and shoulders pattern that I think is worth trading, since it seems to have fully retraced.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTndm_y1GI/AAAAAAAABKQ/ciEuKYr6T6o/s400/0215-al.jpg
BBD has a clean relationship with its Fib retracement.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTndm_y1HI/AAAAAAAABKY/VbBBEdmAg2w/s400/0215-bbd.jpg
This is a bigger graph than I normally show - ten years - and it's of Goldman Sachs (GS). I still love this short.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTnd2_y1II/AAAAAAAABKg/v21ewJuR3jk/s400/0215-gs.jpg
HES is another fresh one I'd suggest you check out.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 08:18 编辑 ]
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HES is another fresh one I'd suggest you check out.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTmoG_y0_I/AAAAAAAABJY/7s7bX0daFPg/s400/0215-hes.jpg
I've still got my IYR puts. They're under water, but just take a gander and how lofty this sucker is.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTmoG_y1AI/AAAAAAAABJg/8ejgI9h7wdc/s400/0215-iyr.jpg
My MTH short is still solid. I am once again showing a bigger graph so you can understand how far this thing could fall.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTmoW_y1BI/AAAAAAAABJo/s_3iGHwcZ9c/s400/0215-mth.jpg
OXY is another oil short worth examination.
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OXY is another oil short worth examination.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTmom_y1CI/AAAAAAAABJw/jnf1NaCcNaw/s400/0215-oxy.jpg
PCU isn't as clear-cut, but it's at the top of a channel, and I'm going to nibble some puts on this one tomorrow.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdTmom_y1DI/AAAAAAAABJ4/-uYOuKHUT_0/s400/0215-pcu.jpg
at 2/15/2007 11 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, al, bbd, bhi, gs, hes, iyr, mth, nzd/usd, oxy, pcu
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Wednesday, February 14, 2007St. Valentine's Day Massacre
As proof not only of God, but a cruel God, I found myself driving behind the following license plate this morning:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdOGiW_y08I/AAAAAAAABI0/2LINVPOfj88/s400/0214-%24godow.jpg
That's right. Go Dow. Bring me the head of Ben Bernanke!
I am understandably in no mood to look at charts right now. But at least I can remind everyone that I have been very suspicious of the short-lived breakdown in prices. Doing this blog this long has taught me to put plenty of asterisks next to my ruminations, and as I've said repeatedly, a breakdown hasn't happened. And until it does, the bulls own this market. Every tiny dip in prices during this godawful rally has been just a few quick days of bearishness, only to be whisked away into the land of new highs......
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdOGim_y09I/AAAAAAAABI8/_6twkBDqhjw/s400/0214-%24indu.jpg
The strength of the Transports only confirms this belief. This is a new lifetime high for the Transports, and even the most bearish bear has to admit that the Dow Industrials and Dow Transports hitting new, never-before-seen highs on the same day is outright bullish for U.S. stocks.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdOGi2_y0-I/AAAAAAAABJE/MDHz-y-zlnI/s400/0214-%24tran.jpg
at 2/14/2007 18 insightful comments
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Labels: new highs
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Tuesday, February 13, 2007Crazy Train
Time for a shameless plug. My book is rolling off the press right now. You can click here to go to Amazon if you'd like to pre-order a copy. I paid my way through college writing computer books, but it's been a very long time since I've had the thrill of seeing something I've written in a book store. I hope people enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI8l2_y05I/AAAAAAAABH8/a6SXQhn9mQU/s400/0213-%24book.jpg
I've drawn a channel representing the NASDAQ 100 (which, in spite of a really strong general market today, is relatively weak). As you can see, we remain very much at the high end of this channel.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI8mG_y06I/AAAAAAAABIE/qogO_UQbGX0/s400/0213-%24ndx.jpg
I've pointed out the huge divergence between the major indexes and their RSI. This holds true for $OEX as well.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI8mW_y07I/AAAAAAAABIM/C1_ob95iIs8/s400/0213-%24oexdivergence.jpg
Tomorrow is going to be really important. If we fall tomorrow, today may have been nothing more than a retracement. If we push higher, than we're probably looking at the umpteenth time that the bears have had a little hope injected into their system only to have it ripped away. Today's rise can be explained away. Any more rise could not - - we'd have to concede to the bulls yet again.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI7v2_y00I/AAAAAAAABHU/lG_lZxBbLg0/s400/0213-%24spx.jpg
Capital One (COF) is still a possibility, even though it's holding up far longer than I ever expected.
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Capital One (COF) is still a possibility, even though it's holding up far longer than I ever expected.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI7wG_y01I/AAAAAAAABHc/YP6M4rnEOOE/s400/0213-cof.jpg
John Deere (DE) remains at the high end of its channel, and it actually fell a bit today, in spite of a very strong Dow.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI7wG_y02I/AAAAAAAABHk/OIqfIPwuF1E/s400/0213-de.jpg
HealthNet (HNT) is approaching both its former high as well as the upper range of an upward-sloping trendline.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI7wW_y03I/AAAAAAAABHs/5AJJqb-ngYg/s400/0213-hnt.jpg
Interactive Data (IDC) has a rather toppy looking pattern and is worth a look.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RdI7wm_y04I/AAAAAAAABH0/x9S1cirCKCY/s400/0213-idc.jpg
Like I said, tomorrow is key. It was a very tough day for the bears today. Let's see if hope gets yanked away or is allowed to linger just a bit more.
at 2/13/2007 16 insightful comments
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Labels: $ndx, $oex, $spx, cof, de, hnt, idc
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