And Carnival, purveyor to obese, bored "travelers", continues to fall as well, as I've mentioned it would many times.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rey0GZ9oJqI/AAAAAAAABfw/zWbDElP6avI/s400/0305-ccl.jpg
Take a look at the Fibs on the Greater China Fund. Looks like we're in for a bounce, doesn't it?
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Reyzy59oJhI/AAAAAAAABeo/np5v633Fc90/s400/0305-gch.jpg
Lehman is just one example of many of stocks that seem to have had the air taken out of them but are reaching support levels. In this instance, based on Fib fans.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReyzzJ9oJiI/AAAAAAAABew/6j5h6YFTaSU/s400/0305-leh.jpg
Another victim of the housing collapse - MTH. Once again, a short I suggested many, many points ago.
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Another victim of the housing collapse - MTH. Once again, a short I suggested many, many points ago.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReyzzJ9oJjI/AAAAAAAABe4/gxveCytw1hE/s400/0305-mth.jpg
But today was just maddening, as I said. Look at SPY. The horizontal line shows what I thought would be the support level. In the morning, we started bouncing higher (as I imagine we will tomorrow morning). All day the market farted around. And then, as shown by the highlighted area, we got whacked.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReyzzJ9oJkI/AAAAAAAABfA/x1cxUNU7Ri4/s400/0305-spy.jpg
One long idea for ya - UNP.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReyzzZ9oJlI/AAAAAAAABfI/Ww0GYhSzIP4/s400/0305-unp.jpg
I've got to scoot. My equity puts have been doing fantastic. But I'm a complete moron for selling those index puts. Ugh. What a rotten feeling. I can only hope we get a nice fat bounce so I get a second chance. *Sniff*.
at 3/05/2007 9 insightful comments
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Labels: ahm, bp, ccl, gch, leh, mth, nzd/usd, spy, unp
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The cold fact is that there's probably a bounce in here somewhere. I closed out all my Russell puts this morning, and I have no index shorts now. I have a ton of equity puts, and all the charts look great, so even with a bounce, I'm happy to hang on.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RexHTp9oJgI/AAAAAAAABeg/yGaAkgQmHOY/s400/0304-bounce.jpg
It remains to be seen how much more downward movement will be wrung out of this spasm. I, for one, would prefer to see a nice fat bounce, have the bulls rest on their fat, stupid butts again, and then go in for the kill. Until then, let's wait,
at 3/05/2007 9 insightful comments
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Friday, March 02, 2007Bear With Me
(Note to my readers and purchasers of my book - - Amazon is finally letting you review it! So if you've got it - - or if you just want to pretend you do and want to do poor ol' Tim a favor - free, it's fun, and you'll feel good about yourself!)
This week was awesome. An absolute delight (well, kind of - more on that in a moment). This is the kind of week we bears love. The beauty of falls is how quickly they happen. The fraudulent bulls (redundant, eh?) have been skittering around talking about a "melt up" in the market. What utter crap.
I checked my records, and I've marked with an arrow the day that our Australian friend (well, at least he wanted me to think so - - I doubt even Aussies say "mate" every third word) left his wimpy voicemail deriding me for my blog. You remember him, right? The fellow who told me his girlfriend thought I was dorky looking? (And I didn't even know right hands could talk!) Here's what the market has done since he left his message:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rei-kp9oJbI/AAAAAAAABdE/p89qr24rj_0/s400/0302-%24divinejustice.jpg
There is divine justice in that. When the bulls become so cocksure as to take their valuable time leaving hateful voicemails (anonymous, naturally). In his clumsy English, he muttered something about a blog he likes where the permabull was "absolutely brilliant." Yeah, well. There ya go. I hope you loaded up on S&P calls they day you left me your voicemail, you complete twit.
The mainstream headlines show how biased the world is against us. Just check out this headline - "worst" week. Come on! It was the BEST week! That's like saying a rainy day is "bad" weather and a hot, sunny day is "beautiful."
Ya know what? I happen to love rainy days. And I hate hot sunny days. So let's stick to the facts, shall we? If the day is sunny, it's sunny. Not nice. And if the market is down, it's down. There's nothing "worst" about it. I am personally thrilled to pieces.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rei-kp9oJcI/AAAAAAAABdM/HBWQgJlZjHU/s400/0302-%24worstweek.jpg
Enough self-flagellation. I had a good week otherwise. (Even though I'm still an idiot.) I have one chart here that provides a good case for a bullish bounce on Monday. Here's the S&P 500. It's hitting a major Fib level. And it's hitting the topside of that former resistance line. And the Chinese freak-out might take a break. Now, I have a buttload of Russell puts right now, so I don't want a bounce. But it could happen.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rei-XJ9oJXI/AAAAAAAABck/TgOI98tAoUU/s400/0302-%24bullishspx.jpg
Most of the index graphs I have from here on point to plenty more room for declines. I'm not going to provide much in the way of stock charts today. I'm really charted out from this week. You should spend your time www.amazon.com%2FChart-Your-Way-Profits-Technical%2Fdp%2F0470043504&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]buying my book and reading it, don't you think? Anyway........
Here's the NASDAQ Composite. Plenty of room left on the downside of this channel. Man, I can't believe I dumped those $MSH puts. OK, OK, I'll stop.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rei-XZ9oJYI/AAAAAAAABcs/n8mqt1SWqT0/s400/0302-%24compq.jpg
A longer view of the $COMPQ shows just how sick this miserable index is.
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A longer view of the $COMPQ shows just how sick this miserable index is.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rei-XZ9oJZI/AAAAAAAABc0/rfJKdw9ikFI/s400/0302-%24compqlong.jpg
The $NDX is somewhat similar.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rei-Xp9oJaI/AAAAAAAABc8/otUzebl8eo0/s400/0302-%24ndx.jpg
And here's the $NDX on the long view (if any of you are n00bs, click the image to see a much bigger version).
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rei9JZ9oJQI/AAAAAAAABbw/GKdfytW-CX4/s400/0302-%24ndxlong.jpg
The $OEX is at the midpoint between its Fibonacci retracement levels. (Don't understand what I'm talking about? Didn't I mention you should www.amazon.com%2FChart-Your-Way-Profits-Technical%2Fdp%2F0470043504&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]buy my book? Ahem!)
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The $OEX is at the midpoint between its Fibonacci retracement levels. (Don't understand what I'm talking about? Didn't I mention you should www.amazon.com%2FChart-Your-Way-Profits-Technical%2Fdp%2F0470043504&tag=prophet-20&linkCode=ur2&camp=1789&creative=9325]buy my book? Ahem!)
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rei9Jp9oJRI/AAAAAAAABb4/gpEukOl85xU/s400/0302-%24oex.jpg
The Major Market Index ($XMI) could be argued as bullish. It had an explosive rise following the breakout above that horizontal line, and it's just about done fully retracing it. If the market does bounce, this would be a great short-term bullish play.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rei9J59oJTI/AAAAAAAABcE/KAUfUWwsgZ8/s400/0302-%24xmi.jpg
BP, which I've mentioned countless times, is swooning.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rei9KJ9oJUI/AAAAAAAABcM/uRarMmCWS04/s400/0302-bp.jpg
Umm, gosh, just one stock chart. Well, look, like I said, I'm charted out. But I have to piss and moan about something. And it's kind of relevant. Bear with me.
This has to do with FX trading. As you know, I've been hawking shorting the New Zealand dollar big time. And I haven't checked, but I'm pretty confident this has been the best performing currency play anywhere in the world recently. So - thank you, thank you, happy to be of service. However............
FX trading is highly leveraged. And the weird thing is that if you get pushed into a margin call, your broker (or at least mine) closes 100% of every single position you've got. So you can have a million dollars worth of positions spread across ten currencies, and if you get a $50 margin call, they will immediately close everything out! Is that outrageous, or what?
So, of course, that's what happened to me. Yesterday I shorted a bunch of NZD/USD. I woke up this morning to see it had completely collapsed. But did I have a profit? No. I had a loss. How, beloved Tim, is this possible? It's because my broker closed me out when the NZD tiptoed a little higher, closed my position, and then it collapsed into what would have been a multi hundred percent profit in one day.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rei9KJ9oJVI/AAAAAAAABcU/2m4t4oeHnK4/s400/0302-nzdfib.jpg
The downward-pointing arrow on the left is a profit I did enjoy. The downward-pointing arrow on the right is the one I got cheated out of. So - you FX traders - is this the case with every brokerage? Let me know!
But there is something technically interested. Look at how the NZD plays off those Fib lines. I mean, my God, is that incredible. It's practically supernatural! And the marvelous way this exotic currency behaves makes me even angrier, since I totally understand this market, and yet my stupid broker's policies cheated me out of a lot of cash. Grrrrrrrrrr.
Anyway, I was wishing for a market that would start to pummel the bulls, and for this week at least, I got it. We bears have been cheated repeatedly out of our market, and I have been humbled enough to say it could happen again. This could be just another trick. And volatility might get pushed back down into the single digits. And we'll all be sitting on our paws again.
But, I've got to tell you, it's a fantastic change to see the bulls suffering. No one deserves it more, and no more deserves less pity. The bears are the ones with brains, and the bears.......for just this week, if nothing else......have bested their inferiors.
at 3/02/2007 34 insightful comments
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Labels: bow, bp, nzd/usd, shld
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Thursday, March 01, 2007Exodus 8:2
It was thrilling for a little while. The Dow plunged another 200 points. I watched my index puts (which I had stupidly sold Tuesday morning) move from $211,000 in "coulda" profit to almost $300,000. Ouch. Always nasty to see what could have been. The indexes were on a wild ride all day, at times even moving into positive territory. In the end, things were generally down a little.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReeHt3njItI/AAAAAAAABag/Wd6J_vt-mlU/s400/0301-%24indu.jpg
I hate to say it, but I think it's more likely Friday is up than down. There are a couple of reasons. First, today's action was largely a freak-out session based on Tuesday jitters. Second, there are candlesticks all over the place - some of them gigantic. And third, people are talking bear talk now - - - it's best to maul bulls when they are not looking. That isn't the case now. The $VIX has exploded higher. (N00B alert: click on any chart to see a big version.)
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReeHt3njIuI/AAAAAAAABao/IJAyLnEHf9I/s400/0301-%24spx.jpg
A longer term look at the S&P shows how it could easily move back up to the underbelly of that broken trendline. At that point, it would be like shooting fish (or bulls) in a barrel. As it is now, I'm nervous.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReeHuHnjIvI/AAAAAAAABaw/Y1wnIwLvY_c/s400/0301-%24spxlong.jpg
It remains to be seen, but if we do sell off tomorrow, the Russell will have already accomplished its mission of pulling back to its own trendline. This is the only index on which I own puts right now. Puts are relatively expensive now, versus last week, because premiums have understandably exploded higher. So I'm afraid buying puts now is much riskier than just a week ago.
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It remains to be seen, but if we do sell off tomorrow, the Russell will have already accomplished its mission of pulling back to its own trendline. This is the only index on which I own puts right now. Puts are relatively expensive now, versus last week, because premiums have understandably exploded higher. So I'm afraid buying puts now is much riskier than just a week ago.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReeHfXnjInI/AAAAAAAABZw/_NbWxxTYpt8/s400/0301-%24rut.jpg
Just look at the candlestick on today's $TRAN action (wow, that sounds like something that would happen on a Castro street corner).
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReeHfXnjIoI/AAAAAAAABZ4/9wyC1wG29cU/s400/0301-%24tran.jpg
If we rally, the $XMI should do well. Look at not only the candlestick but also how nicely the prices have pulled back down to that former major breakout point (the horizontal line).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReeHfnnjIpI/AAAAAAAABaA/0XYKmzOj0vY/s400/0301-%24xmi.jpg
I bought some more CME puts today. It seems to me it has pulled back to resistance. I'd put a stop of $552 on these.
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I bought some more CME puts today. It seems to me it has pulled back to resistance. I'd put a stop of $552 on these.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReeHf3njIqI/AAAAAAAABaI/y7y18Afc6no/s400/0301-cmelong.jpg
Here's a longer-term look at the same stock.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReeHf3njIrI/AAAAAAAABaQ/dyoTY2RftD0/s400/0301-cme.jpg
PICO, which I only just stumbled across today, has the makings of a good bullish pick.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReeHM3njIiI/AAAAAAAABZI/cNTGQE8lvP8/s400/0301-pico.jpg
I was really ticked this morning when I saw the NZD. I was short the currency. And it had plummeted overnight. So why I was upset, then? Because I had been stopped out on a margin requirement. See, this is something I hate about FX trading. It is so highly leveraged, it is very easy to get a margin call, and the broker will sell every single position you've got. So if you have a ten cent margin call, blammo, your entire account is closed out to cash. So I missed out on a huge move.
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I was really ticked this morning when I saw the NZD. I was short the currency. And it had plummeted overnight. So why I was upset, then? Because I had been stopped out on a margin requirement. See, this is something I hate about FX trading. It is so highly leveraged, it is very easy to get a margin call, and the broker will sell every single position you've got. So if you have a ten cent margin call, blammo, your entire account is closed out to cash. So I missed out on a huge move.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReeHNHnjIjI/AAAAAAAABZQ/1qZsYRmXCYY/s400/0301-nzd.jpg
Just look at QID. Can you believe a security that started off with just over 100,000 shares traded in a day is now trading close to 20 million? What a success story!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReeHNXnjIkI/AAAAAAAABZY/_E5n9CUXW7c/s400/0301-qid.jpg
RAI has formed a beautiful dome topping pattern.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReeHNnnjIlI/AAAAAAAABZg/1XrRM-ppGZM/s400/0301-rai.jpg
And old favorite SHLD, my only bullish position, sported a nice candlestick today whose low met resistance. A stop on $172.49 is good for this one.
And old favorite SHLD, my only bullish position, sported a nice candlestick today whose low met resistance. A stop on $172.49 is good for this one.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReeHN3njImI/AAAAAAAABZo/fN-mYXK8SqM/s400/0301-shld.jpg
Friday should be really interesting, particularly since the weekend is upon us. If people are really shell-shocked and nervous, and they don't want to live through a weekend of uncertainty, maybe we'll get some downward pressure. But don't call me permabear if the market rallies tomorrow. I would say it's better than even odds on a good rally, in which case we'll have to sit things out until prices (and premiums) get reasonable again.
at 3/01/2007 26 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $rut, $spx, cme, pico, qid, rai, shld
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 06:28 编辑 ]
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 06:29 编辑 ]
http://pic.y321.com/picnew/pic/shlingfu/2007212161630_1.jpg
Wednesday, February 28, 2007Animal Mother
I am channeling Animal Mother. Bulls, you have a real chance of losing control. Stay sharp!
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReYXkXnjIeI/AAAAAAAABYA/gAFRD3WOoT4/s400/0229-%24animalmother.jpg
Some folks (well, one - Health Affairs - only God knows what on earth that name is supposed to mean............) suggested I would falsely claim I called the fall. I didn't call the precise fall (otherwise I'd be on Time magazine), but, come on, I gave some pretty clear warnings.
Let's put our brains back in and get serious. How high will the Dow go up (ahem - "recover" - - from the "correction") before we get a chance to really rake the bulls over again? Cast thy eyes this way:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReYXknnjIgI/AAAAAAAABYQ/74rnNOYgDhw/s400/0229-%24indu.jpg
.....and this.......
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReYXk3njIhI/AAAAAAAABYY/a8-yB-KKaDI/s400/0229-%24rut.jpg
........and this.........
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/ReYXYnnjIYI/AAAAAAAABXQ/HAG6DMKMPik/s400/0229-%24spx.jpg
The $VIX pulling back to the horizontal line shown would make things more tempting. My God, the bid/ask spread on S&P options today was wider than Al Gore's waistline. (I think the man has decided to consume - live - anyone not living green. Notwithstanding his $30,000/year house bill on electricity and gas).
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-4 06:48 编辑 ]
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