Long suggestion SCHN continues to do well, although I'm sure the massive buyout news regarding AL/AA had everything to do with today's rise.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rj-IXbbKhgI/AAAAAAAACZQ/Iub8MVsLvTU/s400/0507-schnlong.jpg
at 5/07/2007 23 insightful comments
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Labels: bid, cme, infy, mee, msft, new highs, ryaay, schn
Friday, May 04, 2007Sigh....
OK, this up-every-day thing is getting realllllllly old.
I'm started to become disenchanted with the Russell 2000. I wasn't surprised at the recent recovery. In fact, I sold a huge block of puts just before the bounce higher started (thank God).
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPyLbKhaI/AAAAAAAACYg/Rn0iZUtRksM/s400/0504-%24rutintraday60.jpg
What bugs me is that the bounce-back pushed higher than the point I thought things would soften up again. The entire area I've shaded in green here (a closer view) is basically the "WTF???" zone. Particularly the strong finish during the last few minutes of today. Disgusting.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPybbKhbI/AAAAAAAACYo/5ltxgZqAi5w/s400/0504-%24rutintraday.jpg
The $XAU is sporting a handsome shooting star, and although I've had no position in this for a while, I picked up some puts on it today. Because of the behavior of the market these days, I've focused on deep in-the-money, far-out expiration puts. Low risk, low volatility (and consequently lower profits should a miracle occur and things actually start heading down one day).
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The $XAU is sporting a handsome shooting star, and although I've had no position in this for a while, I picked up some puts on it today. Because of the behavior of the market these days, I've focused on deep in-the-money, far-out expiration puts. Low risk, low volatility (and consequently lower profits should a miracle occur and things actually start heading down one day).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPo7bKhVI/AAAAAAAACX4/XeEXZOWrGCk/s400/0504-%24xau.jpg
I mentioned CRDN yesterday as a possible long. The awaited breakout took place today, although on unspectacular volume.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPpLbKhWI/AAAAAAAACYA/jpkpBdxpvtI/s400/0504-crdnlong.jpg
ONT, mentioned many times here as a long, had a terrific day. The volume in the past few weeks is sensational.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPpLbKhXI/AAAAAAAACYI/87lrJ06QgwM/s400/0504-ontlong.jpg
Akamai (AKAM) might be pushing back to a neckline, but this isn't a perfect head and shoulder, so no position yet. The right shoulder is higher than the left, and I tend to be a purist about these things.
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Akamai (AKAM) might be pushing back to a neckline, but this isn't a perfect head and shoulder, so no position yet. The right shoulder is higher than the left, and I tend to be a purist about these things.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPpbbKhYI/AAAAAAAACYQ/OBm7lprflAM/s400/0504-akam.jpg
Jones Soda (JSDA) got whacked today. Even so, it has a nice little head and shoulders pattern, and this could have another $8 to $10 to drop (based on classic measurement techniques).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPpbbKhZI/AAAAAAAACYY/lyHArdXEM-4/s400/0504-jsda.jpg
The balance of today's offerings are basically "rollovers." That is, stocks I think have lost momentum and have a good chance of falling. They are......Caterpillar (CAT):
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPQ7bKhQI/AAAAAAAACXQ/rGOmFdV1_Ec/s400/0504-cat.jpg
Hess (HES):
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Hess (HES):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPRLbKhRI/AAAAAAAACXY/ZavrKKCSep4/s400/0504-hes.jpg
Noble Energy (NBL):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPRLbKhSI/AAAAAAAACXg/Wz8RmQ0wb84/s400/0504-nbl.jpg
Potash (POT):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPRbbKhTI/AAAAAAAACXo/CQAc5JoQMPs/s400/0504-pot.jpg
PSB:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPR7bKhUI/AAAAAAAACXw/SpeRqg4RlCs/s400/0504-psb.jpg
I've had enough. Time to hang up the charts for the weekend.
at 5/04/2007 30 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, $xau, akam, cat, crdn, hes, jsda, nbl, ont, pot, psb
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Thursday, May 03, 2007A Call For Bull Content
Over the past 25 trading sessions (March 29th through May 3rd), the Dow 30 closed up 22 times and down only 3 times. That means only about 12% of the time, we were down for the day. The net change was up 941 points.
During the 25 trading sessions prior to the above (February 22nd through March 28th), the Dow 30 closed up 12 times and down 13 times, meaning the Dow closed down 52% of the time. The net change was down 438 points. Quite a change, eh?
Given the above, you can imagine how the brawling in comments has been getting worse (and only God knows how bad it would be if anonymous people were still allowed to post). BackI asked all the bulls to make some recommendations. Only a couple of folks did. One of them had a bunch of options, which frankly I'm too lazy to look up, and another - listed a bunch of equity symbols.
I decided to do an experiment and entered a hypothetical portfolio of 100 shares of each of his recommendations, using a price of the opening on April 18th (the morning following his comment). In other words, I'm assuming you decided to buy, at the opening price, an equal number of shares of each of the stocks suggested (the weighting would vary quite a bit, obviously, since the share prices were so different). The symbols and their "entry" prices were:
DOW 45.29
EMC 15.12
GLW 23.40
GSK 58.4573
GS 213.75
GSF 62.31
INTC 21.35
MYL 21.60
MS 81.50
NDAQ 31.20
SMH 35.22
QCOM 43.19
QLD 85.85
By way of comparison, I decided to compare it to the Russell 2000. Over the period since Tom's suggestions, the Russell has moved up from 827.41 up to 828.87, which is a small change of 0.18%. Tom's suggestions were also up .18%, but with a 3 in front of the decimal point as well (e.g. 3.18%). So - - great work, Tom!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpLs7bKhKI/AAAAAAAACWg/AiOEn2omqkQ/s400/0503-%24tomthetrader.jpg
Now, as regular readers know, we get our fair share of bulls in the comments section that yell and scream daily about how stupid bears are. That's fine. But what interests me is to find out how smart our bullish colleagues are. Specifically, I'd like to hear what they have to say (in a constructive sense).
So here's my offer - - anyone who has bullish recommendations, commentary, or market views, I'd like you to send them to email address (which you can find in my profile). I will print any specific suggestions or market analysis without comment or editing (except for spelling). Consider it an opportunity to demonstrate the market prowess which you possess.
The NASDAQ is threatening to push above its resistance line, similar to the fashion that the S&P 500 did a few days ago. If tomorrow opens higher, we can pretty much count on a new surge by the NASDAQ. It's all up to the employment report.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpMSbbKhLI/AAAAAAAACWo/Fz_56TtGmzQ/s400/0503-%24compq.jpg
The Russell 2000 is also threatening its stop-loss price of 835.17, which is its lifetime high.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpMSrbKhMI/AAAAAAAACWw/IJe1hOUgEOQ/s400/0503-%24rut.jpg
Notice how the S&P 500 is staying above its former resistance line. Even earlier this week, on the one day the market dipped lower, the S&P closed above this former resistance line.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpMS7bKhNI/AAAAAAAACW4/K5vcFeTacxI/s400/0503-%24spx.jpg
I shorted BID yesterday, and it fell nicely today.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-30 16:07 编辑 ]
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I shorted BID yesterday, and it fell nicely today.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpMTLbKhOI/AAAAAAAACXA/ZLfmNl_zuwM/s400/0503-bid.jpg
I am also short CCL, which seems to have a lot of potential to fall.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpMTbbKhPI/AAAAAAAACXI/ObPKhzO2kF8/s400/0503-ccl.jpg
InfoSys(INFY) is in a small H&S formation. Plus, when a major stock like this goes down on such a strong day, that's a good sign.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpLZrbKhFI/AAAAAAAACV4/olGDuYCs-qY/s400/0503-infy.jpg
Retailer JC Penney (JCP) remains below its busted trendline.
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Retailer JC Penney (JCP) remains below its busted trendline.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpLZ7bKhGI/AAAAAAAACWA/vbNxNOtR-SQ/s400/0503-jcp.jpg
I went long CCJ (the uranium producer) today, and it's already in the green.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpLaLbKhHI/AAAAAAAACWI/O7EQD30REjY/s400/0503-LongCCJ.jpg
CRDN is shaping up as another prospective long, assuming it breaks above the line I've drawn here.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpLabbKhII/AAAAAAAACWQ/vq5QARcnHfw/s400/0503-LongCRDN.jpg
WBD has been on a tear for months, but I shorted this one earlier today, and it fell nicely. It is sporting a hefty bearish engulfing pattern, although for a stock that is relatively thinly traded like this, it isn't such a big deal.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpLarbKhJI/AAAAAAAACWY/zkMJ9XToZ58/s400/0503-wbd.jpg
at 5/03/2007 18 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $rut, $spx, bid, ccj, ccl, crdn, infy, jcp, new highs, wbd
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Wednesday, May 02, 2007Bespoke
I guess I first noticed it about a month ago.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjjyqLbKhCI/AAAAAAAACVg/h3rbMv_LwZM/s400/0502-%24bespoke.jpg
I stared at the cover in disbelief thinking, "You have got to be kidding me." I get the fact that Trump will whore himself out for just about anything with his name on it. But putting your name on hotels, condominiums, houses, and even a TV show is one thing. But - - - meat? A grocery item? What's next, toilet paper? ("Now you can wipe your ass with the same quality paper product that I do....")
If you believe - and I hope you don't - that money equals class, you are sadly mistaken. There are plenty of billionaires that don't have an ounce of class, and there are plenty of thousandaires with gobs of it. For a superb perspective on this subject, read Paul Fussell's Class. It is many years old, but it is absolutely on the mark.
Anyway.
Well, the asset bubble kept expanding today, although it moved away from its highs. I watched the Dow cross the 13,250 mark, and at one point I think it was up something like another 130 points. The "melt up" started to simmer, however, and it closed "only" about 75 points higher, yet another all-time-high.
My portfolio has been doing an admirable job of holding its own. In fact, it closed the day virtually unchanged. This is very encouraging to me. If I have constructed a bearish portfolio that can weather this kind of abuse, then I know any weakness will be richly profitable.
Here is an intraday graph of the red-hot Chinese market (which is basically a verbatim repeat of the NASDAQ bubble of 1999). I've drawn a neckline here on what seems to me to be a nicely formed head and shoulders pattern.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjjyqbbKhDI/AAAAAAAACVo/y5Iugu9fLuM/s400/0502-%24china.jpg
The Dow 30 has obviously been the strongest index of late, although its lurches forward seem to be getting more spasmodic. But it certainly has not broken its upward pattern yet.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjjyqbbKhEI/AAAAAAAACVw/rpIEe-xRazQ/s400/0502-%24indu.jpg
My concern yesterday about the candlestick formation of the Russell 2000 was well-founded. I am glad I closed those puts - - and at a very handsome profit, I might add. But I was aggressively re-entering the position today when the Dow was in the +100 points zone.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjjyjrbKg_I/AAAAAAAACVI/NHlrf9v6b0E/s400/0502-%24rut.jpg
The Dow Transports have not been sharing in the glory, and this looks toppy to me:
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The Dow Transports have not been sharing in the glory, and this looks toppy to me:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rjjyj7bKhAI/AAAAAAAACVQ/8J_h6P_8ga0/s400/0502-%24tran.jpg
As for the $XAU (gold and silver index), I hate for you to think I see an H&S pattern everywhere I turn, but there's really no doubt in my mind as to what we're looking at here.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjjykLbKhBI/AAAAAAAACVY/WNSK4QKj_FQ/s400/0502-%24xau.jpg
Now, it's confession time. As you may recall, I was short BankRate (RATE). I had a stop in place. And, first thing this morning, I overrode it and closed out the position.
That was stupid, it was a mistake, and it was against my rules (in particular, "Never do an ad hoc close.") The stock closed up for the day, but substantially below its highs, and the chart is still a reasonable bearish play. So this is a bit of public flagellation for jumping the gun. I don't do it often, but when I do an ad hoc close, I almost always regret it.
at 5/02/2007 39 insightful comments
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Labels: new highs
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Tuesday, May 01, 2007Learning to Crawl
Today's post will be short, everyone. I had a pretty good day, actually, but looking at the charts, there is frankly not a heck of a lot to say. Some days are just like that.
The rise on the Dow today was actually kind to my portfolio - - it went up some, in spite of its bearish stance. But the hammer pattern shown in the Russell 2000 is a little worrisome. We're not exactly at the bottom of some gigantic slide, so this single candlestick isn't anything horrendous in terms of a turning point, but all the same, a hammer is a hammer, and we need to be extra cautious. For myself, I trimmed my $RUT puts pretty substantially near the bottom earlier today.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rjeew7bKg8I/AAAAAAAACUw/C2yIYGmkgR4/s400/0501-%24rut.jpg
The stock PSB continues to shape up as a potentially great head and shoulders short. Speaking of which, AMR (not shown here) continues to behave very well for the same reasons.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjeexLbKg9I/AAAAAAAACU4/ItBk_K-CIU4/s400/0501-psb.jpg
One stock which has broken its major ascending trendline is BankRate (symbol RATE). Even though it's bounced above the line again, I consider the line broken and therefore am short this stock.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjeexbbKg-I/AAAAAAAACVA/sCGr7UdygvA/s400/0501-rate.jpg
This is a fairly quiet week on the economic announcements scene, and the real excitement of earnings season is over (with the likes of Apple, Google, Yahoo, etc. behind us). So there aren't a lot of fireworks right now, and in many ways stocks seem to be stuck at a more or less equilibrium stage right now. As always, well-placed stops are the most crucial thing to have in place, should the market regain its strength in a big way and start to push higher still.
at 5/01/2007 28 insightful comments
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Labels: psb, rate
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