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A thoughtful reader sent me a suggestion of symbol CEG. This is a handsome looking short. I have no position in it, but I'll follow it from now on.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmcbQQmbzhI/AAAAAAAACts/VYpxdbKYm1k/s400/0606-ceg.jpg
Big Blue, good old IBM, really got smacked today. I've got puts on both IBM and Honeywell (HON), both of which pushed much higher on the day.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmcbRAmbziI/AAAAAAAACt0/OaByFcKWX4Y/s400/0606-ibm.jpg
I am showing NVR again simply because it is such a "Fibonacci friendly" stock, to use a phrase I coined a while back. The way it bounces off these retracement lines is really a sight.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmcbRQmbzjI/AAAAAAAACt8/9wL0VON9E4I/s400/0606-nvr.jpg
I've unsuccessfully owned puts on Sears Holding (SHLD) in the past, and it has never worked out. Once more into the breach, dear friends.
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I've unsuccessfully owned puts on Sears Holding (SHLD) in the past, and it has never worked out. Once more into the breach, dear friends.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmcbSQmbzkI/AAAAAAAACuE/z46840pTLZ4/s400/0606-shld.jpg
Since I'm feeling a little better, I'll keep throwing the goodies your way. Here's the marvelous Naive Melody from you-know-who.
at 6/06/2007 37 insightful comments
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Labels: azo, bg, ceg, ibm, nvr, shld
Tuesday, June 05, 2007My Nude Pictures of Ernest Borgnine
Finally, a skosh of relief for the bears today (only those truly secure dare offer the word skosh in their blog). The market was down over 100 points several times today (but just a skosh) and wound up down 80. Freakishly, the QQQQ left the day unchanged.
In any case, I made some nice green on some intraday Russell 2000 option trades. I'm too war-weary from the past year to hold these suckers overnight, but I can at least say I like the current $INDU chart more than I did 24 hours ago:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmZQ-AmbzeI/AAAAAAAACtU/slkZ-I_Q_WI/s400/0605-%24indu.jpg
The Russell 2000 (side question: has anyone found ANY other index with a reasonable bid/ask spread on the options?!) has been rather strong lately but edged down about half a percent today. No sea change by any means, but we take what we can get.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmZQ-QmbzfI/AAAAAAAACtc/Y6r10BAyseI/s400/0605-%24rut.jpg
And, for good measure, here's the S&P 500:
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 13:23 编辑 ]
And, for good measure, here's the S&P 500:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmZQ-QmbzgI/AAAAAAAACtk/2rnLprfbcm8/s400/0605-%24spx.jpg
I haven't put a chart up of the $UTIL for a while, but whether you've noticed or not, interest rates have been really pushing higher lately. (Remember those? Low interest rates? The reason the market's been so bullish.........remember?)Worldwide interest rates have been surging, relatively speaking. Gentle Ben's remarks today pushed them higher still.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmZQywmbzbI/AAAAAAAACs8/O06B1nMwYxE/s400/0605-%24util.jpg
My suggestion of Coach (COH) as a short is decent thus far.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmZQywmbzcI/AAAAAAAACtE/xPhZV_Xchzc/s400/0605-coh.jpg
I am short a lot of housing stocks. Today was a good day for those positions due to the interest rate movement. Essex (ESS) is particularly attractive.
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I am short a lot of housing stocks. Today was a good day for those positions due to the interest rate movement. Essex (ESS) is particularly attractive.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmZQzAmbzdI/AAAAAAAACtM/hG16W_K-ZZA/s400/0605-ess.jpg
Just yesterday I said Google was a nice looking long position. Today (of all days, considering the market's weakness) it made a nice lifetime high. So - clink! - here's to another zillion dollars for all the adolescent Google zillionaires out there. I'm talking about their employees. Not you.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmZQnwmbzYI/AAAAAAAACsk/ThhRqTmzAXY/s400/0605-goog.jpg
KRC is another sharp-looking housing short.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmZQoAmbzZI/AAAAAAAACss/wesHnDKtTmA/s400/0605-krc.jpg
I've been charting the thirty components of the Dow Industrials recently, and 3M Corporation (MMM) is a favorite of mine. I've got some puts on this. Continued Dow weakness would be very kind to those.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmZQoQmbzaI/AAAAAAAACs0/339_wYl1hAo/s400/0605-mmm.jpg
Oh, and one last thing. JakeGint's pondering as to what "we" saw in George Carlin left me shocked. So here's another clip.
at 6/05/2007 12 insightful comments
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Labels: airport post, george carlin
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 13:35 编辑 ]
Monday, June 04, 2007How Now, Mao Dow?
There was a time, not long ago (like, ummm, early last week) that I would have felt cheated and flustered by the Chinese market's tumble not having a bearish effect in the U.S. But at this point, I am so utterly distrustful (and numbed) by this market that I'm not at all surprised.
The Shanghai index fell the equivalent of over 1,100 Dow points last night, and our market - of course - went up. I truly believe - and I am seriously not exaggerating - that a nuclear bomb on a major city would not cause a major disruption in this bull market. I swear to God, this market is insane, and even the death of a million people would not stop it. It has lost its mind.
So. Having said that, let's look at a few charts.
Crude oil is pushing higher. Looking at the continuous futures chart, it seems to have plenty of room on the upside.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmR50re8sLI/AAAAAAAACsM/_Ogj3Z2gCkk/s400/0604-cl1600.jpg
The strength in crude is obviously good for oil service stocks. The OIH is at a new lifetime high and had a very strong day today.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmR507e8sMI/AAAAAAAACsU/TmkYzHDp348/s400/0604-%24oih.jpg
I mentioned last month how bullish energy looked, and stocks like Apache (APA) have been stars.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmR51be8sNI/AAAAAAAACsc/CrVhhIvhdiQ/s400/0604-apa.jpg
Conversely, companies which suffer due to high fuel costs got hurt today. My short recommendation of American Airlines (AMR) is doing well.
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Conversely, companies which suffer due to high fuel costs got hurt today. My short recommendation of American Airlines (AMR) is doing well.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmR5bbe8sHI/AAAAAAAACrs/OpwagU2AI9I/s400/0604-amr.jpg
One I don't think I've mentioned in the past on the short side is BEA Systems (BEAS).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmR5bre8sII/AAAAAAAACr0/dXaVelWlMLE/s400/0604-beas.jpg
I have, however, mentioned Bunge (BG) a few times, and this one is shaping up nicely.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmR5b7e8sJI/AAAAAAAACr8/SmXoIFLRW60/s400/0604-bg.jpg
Capital One (COF) is sort of stuck right now. I own puts on it, and they haven't done a thing, but I am still hopeful about this position.
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Capital One (COF) is sort of stuck right now. I own puts on it, and they haven't done a thing, but I am still hopeful about this position.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmR5cLe8sKI/AAAAAAAACsE/_W6ZUd5zWn8/s400/0604-cof.jpg
Federal Realty Trust (FRT - "don't giggle at our ticker, please") looks like a clean bearish trade to me as well.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmR4hLe8sDI/AAAAAAAACrM/sAk-dkRXR1A/s400/0604-frt.jpg
I don't mention Google (GOOG) much, but this stock looks like a strong buy (yep, buy). This chart is strong, and the volume has been inching higher. Obviously this company is an ungodly powerhouse and is doing well at the expense of poor Yahoo,
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmR4hbe8sEI/AAAAAAAACrU/Tiv8Fq3JbKU/s400/0604-goog.jpg
I bought puts on Honeywell (HON) today. Maybe a lil' double top here.
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I bought puts on Honeywell (HON) today. Maybe a lil' double top here.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmR4hre8sFI/AAAAAAAACrc/5_5gj4fdpyY/s400/0604-hon.jpg
The investment banks seem to be edging south, in spite of the market's continued strength. Merrill Lynch (MER) in particular looks good for a short play.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmR4h7e8sGI/AAAAAAAACrk/edbPxBOS5I4/s400/0604-mer.jpg
at 6/04/2007 34 insightful comments
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Labels: amr, apa, beas, bg, cof, frt, goog, hon, mer, new highs, oih, yhoo
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Friday, June 01, 2007Some Weekend Ideas
Another day, another record in the markets. So it goes, right?
Looking at the long-term Dow 30 chart, I frankly don't see any clear place where the push higher is going to stop, at least from a technical standpoint. We are sort of in unchartered territory. Only a sea-change in something.......a monstrous terrorist attack......a fundamental downturn in the economy......is going to make a difference.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmCD67e8r-I/AAAAAAAACqk/JogIBZyB7cE/s400/0601-%24indu.jpg
Ken Fisher has a pretty good point where he talks about the spread between the E/P value (that's not a typo - earnings divided by price) and prevailing corporate interest rates. I'm paraphrasing, but his rationale goes something like this - the average P/E on the S&P 500 is about 17 right now, which means the E/P is akin to an interest rate of 5.8%.
However, the cost of borrowing money (for which a corporation can deduct the interest) is, once you factor the tax savings, less than 4%. So it's more economically efficient to borrow tons of cash and buy back stock. In his view, until that gap is closed, the market should continue to go higher. Assuming neither interest rates nor earnings (the "E") change, a rational value of the Dow would be at something like 18,000.
I've been battered enough over the past year to not question that kind of assumption. I'm not putting my money on it, but there's no reason to say it couldn't happen.
The American Stock Exchange's $XMI index had looked like it was going to start heading south again, but nope - it pushed to another lifetime high.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmCD7Le8r_I/AAAAAAAACqs/OQCM227RnrE/s400/0601-%24xmi.jpg
I've got a few specific stocks you might want to check out. If you think just about all the good news that can be had about Apple (the AppleTV/YouTube functionality, the forthcoming iPhone, the raging success of the iPod......) is out there and that AAPL is price for perfection, consider some puts on this high-flying stock.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmCD7be8sAI/AAAAAAAACq0/iIvcdDaCE5s/s400/0601-aapl.jpg
Coach (COH), the purse/leather giant, also might be prone to a fall.
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Coach (COH), the purse/leather giant, also might be prone to a fall.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmCD77e8sBI/AAAAAAAACq8/3BFILNRPbfg/s400/0601-coh.jpg
I like the look of Excelon (EXC) here too, for a bearish play.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmCD8Le8sCI/AAAAAAAACrE/IiU9--UGlfI/s400/0601-exc.jpg
For bulls, Micron (MU) seems to be turning higher after a prolonged slump. It had a really good day today, and volume has been surging over the past several months.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RmCDw7e8r9I/AAAAAAAACqc/7e6g6TimYGU/s400/0601-mu.jpg
Those who miss the goofy videos and funny pictures will have to wait until this market gets easier for me to understand. For the time being, it's just dry charts and sober analysis.
at 6/01/2007 55 insightful comments
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