Although Cigna (CI) is too big to simply collapse, it's got a cute little H and S pattern whose neckline was broken today.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnxXRgmb1oI/AAAAAAAAC-k/CSXfTroM20Y/s400/0622-ci.jpg
A new short I think I'll enter next week is - again - Malaysia (EWM).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnxW6wmb1fI/AAAAAAAAC9c/kJAXWGVKsoo/s400/0622-ewm.jpg
I've got to hand it to Google (on which I have not had a position in a while) - - they seem to be doing everything right. This is a gorgeous bullish pattern - just beautiful - particularly in light of today's market action. Poor old Yahoo is just a mess. Why anyone ever used Yahoo in the first place - - I thought they sucked in 1996 when I first tried them - - is beyond me.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnxW7Amb1gI/AAAAAAAAC9k/Lid-8QO3u7o/s400/0622-goog.jpg
Goldman Sachs (GS) suffered some today, so my puts prospered. This isn't a big fall by any stretch. I guess maybe the lame-o BX reaction hurt them? I don't know.
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Goldman Sachs (GS) suffered some today, so my puts prospered. This isn't a big fall by any stretch. I guess maybe the lame-o BX reaction hurt them? I don't know.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnxcEgmb1rI/AAAAAAAAC-8/bkZp5qiiqyo/s400/0622-gs.jpg
I continue to hold my JC Penney (JCP) puts, which push a little higher into the green each day. This is a dynamite pattern. Never has polyester clothing been so good to me!
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnxW7Qmb1iI/AAAAAAAAC90/eAoevkUEb9E/s400/0622-jcp.jpg
I haven't shown Meritage (MTH) in a long time, but I just want to use this to illustrate the kind of slow grinding death equities can go through. I think this is a good proxy for just about the entire stock market, although housing got a head start on the rest of us.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnxW7gmb1jI/AAAAAAAAC98/jSsB0sC-h70/s400/0622-mth.jpg
It's been a good week. Particularly since the detractors are too sheepish to show their faces around here during down days. So let's celebrate:
at 6/22/2007 59 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $rut, $spx, abby joseph cohen, alb, blackstone, bxp, cah, ci, ewm, goog, gs, jcp, mth
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Thursday, June 21, 2007Yeah, We Do.........
I've been mixed up with computers a long time - - since 1979, actually. And I've been involved in electronic communities since 1981. Yes, you read right. I've been doing this a while. And I've learned a few things along the way.
One thing I've learned is that there tends to be an inverse correlation between how a person presents themselves (when they can hide behind a facade) and how they really are. This applies particularly to personal appearance. A shining example of this appeared in last Sunday's New York Times, which profiled a number of serious electronic gamers with their avatars. Here's a particularly painful, poignant example:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rnr4iAmb1cI/AAAAAAAAC9E/sSeXW_35Mkc/s400/0621-%24woof.jpg
So the enormous mass of protoplasm on the left is the human. And the svelte, strong, serious warrior on the right is his representation of himself in the virtual world of Everquest.
Now, if you read this blog at all regularly, you really have no reason not to do the free sign-up for BlogLog, since it's a kick to see who your fellow readers are (savvy, witty folks, by and large; with at least enough good sense to swing by here once a day). But I am highly confident that no one reading my blog looks like this.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rnr4iAmb1dI/AAAAAAAAC9M/5S1IXhu3djg/s400/0621-%24bloglog.jpg
My caution yesterday was very well founded. In fact, it was spot-on. The market opened. It farted around a bit, then it fell hard. And I closed out my DIA and RUT puts at huge profits.
Then I bought calls. But........because I'm an idiot......I sold them shortly thereafter for breakeven. Then they spent the day going up 20%, so that was about $8,000 down the toilet. Like I said: an idiot.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rnr4iQmb1eI/AAAAAAAAC9U/FK4YizT7RaU/s400/0621-%24indu.jpg
But tomorrow is - at last - the big day. That's right - it's Blackstone day. Apparently the demand for shares in BX is about seven-fold oversubscribed. Nothing would be more poetic than the market taking a fall tomorrow. As for BX, I guess it's almost certainly going to close well above its offering price. I guess. But there's something about this offering that I think is rather pivotal in the world of investor psychology.
Anyhoo, my intuition is that tomorrow is that we're going to resume the fall. Perhaps even taking out Wednesday's lows.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rnr4ZAmb1YI/AAAAAAAAC8k/w9xpgqcvVtg/s400/0621-%24rut.jpg
One of my favorite real estate shorts now is Kilroy (KRC). If this stock can break its neckline, this is a honey of a pattern. Quite large.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rnr4ZQmb1ZI/AAAAAAAAC8s/Fpb7BvEeZb8/s400/0621-krc.jpg
If the market is on the weak side after the opening bell tomorrow, I think some 3M (MMM) puts are probably one of the best places to take advantage of any downside action.
Thursday, June 21, 2007Yeah, We Do.........
I've been mixed up with computers a long time - - since 1979, actually. And I've been involved in electronic communities since 1981. Yes, you read right. I've been doing this a while. And I've learned a few things along the way.
One thing I've learned is that there tends to be an inverse correlation between how a person presents themselves (when they can hide behind a facade) and how they really are. This applies particularly to personal appearance. A shining example of this appeared in last Sunday's New York Times, which profiled a number of serious electronic gamers with their avatars. Here's a particularly painful, poignant example:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rnr4iAmb1cI/AAAAAAAAC9E/sSeXW_35Mkc/s400/0621-%24woof.jpg
So the enormous mass of protoplasm on the left is the human. And the svelte, strong, serious warrior on the right is his representation of himself in the virtual world of Everquest.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rnr4iAmb1dI/AAAAAAAAC9M/5S1IXhu3djg/s400/0621-%24bloglog.jpg
was very well founded. In fact, it was spot-on. The market opened. It farted around a bit, then it fell hard. And I closed out my DIA and RUT puts at huge profits.
Then I bought calls. But........because I'm an idiot......I sold them shortly thereafter for breakeven. Then they spent the day going up 20%, so that was about $8,000 down the toilet. Like I said: an idiot.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rnr4iQmb1eI/AAAAAAAAC9U/FK4YizT7RaU/s400/0621-%24indu.jpg
But tomorrow is - at last - the big day. That's right - it's Blackstone day. Apparently the demand for shares in BX is aboutNothing would be more poetic than the market taking a fall tomorrow. As for BX, I guess it's almost certainly going to close well above its offering price. I guess. But there's something about this offering that I think is rather pivotal in the world of investor psychology.
Anyhoo, my intuition is that tomorrow is that we're going to resume the fall. Perhaps even taking out Wednesday's lows.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rnr4ZAmb1YI/AAAAAAAAC8k/w9xpgqcvVtg/s400/0621-%24rut.jpg
One of my favorite real estate shorts now is Kilroy (KRC). If this stock can break its neckline, this is a honey of a pattern. Quite large.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rnr4ZQmb1ZI/AAAAAAAAC8s/Fpb7BvEeZb8/s400/0621-krc.jpg
If the market is on the weak side after the opening bell tomorrow, I think some 3M (MMM) puts are probably one of the best places to take advantage of any downside action.
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If the market is on the weak side after the opening bell tomorrow, I think some 3M (MMM) puts are probably one of the best places to take advantage of any downside action.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rnr4ZQmb1aI/AAAAAAAAC80/8_xw74aE7OA/s400/0621-mmm.jpg
I've mentioned Micron (MU) as a long a number of times. This is a great little pattern, with a volume swell to boot.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rnr4Zgmb1bI/AAAAAAAAC88/x28jDtCRMVQ/s400/0621-mu.jpg
It's been quite a week. Let's see how Blackstone day treats us. See you after the close. Oh, and this is me. For real.
at 6/21/2007 54 insightful comments
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Labels: blackstone, krc, mmm, mu
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Wednesday, June 20, 2007Do We HAVE to Have a Bounce?
I started the day off, before the opening bell, feeling very discouraged. The market seemed inclined to stay at - to borrow from Irving Fisher - a "permanently high plateau". Today provided a welcome respite, with interest rates gutting the Dow for 146 points.
But surely you've seen a change in my temperment. Whereas typically I would be tooting the celebratory horns at such a thing, all I can think now is, "Great, we'll just go into another bounce now." And, perhaps, in my own twisted way, that's actually a really bearish sign. Because when I was feeling balls-out, it's the end of the world, the market invariably pushed higher. I regard these recent jolts downward not with glee, but with dire suspicion, bordering on a sense of dread.
Not to say that, from a chartist's viewpoint, the indexes (and carefully chosen stocks) don't look terrific for the bears. The S&P 500 looks gorgeous.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnnHhwmb1UI/AAAAAAAAC8E/lNQv7fStzGk/s400/0620-%24spx.jpg
And yet, as I look at the minute bars of the same index over the past 60 days, unless the lows of last Thursday, June 7th, are taken out we're going to continue to stay stuck in this f*cking grind upward. If there is, in fact, a loving God, and we blow out the lows of June 7th, then it's time to rock. But I'm a doubter until it happens.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnnHhwmb1VI/AAAAAAAAC8M/2nNQZ1uhfbU/s400/0620-%24spxintraday.jpg
Another reason for my skepticism is that whenever the VIX goes rip-roaring higher, it is prone to ease back down (lately, at least). You can see the general range I've highlighted below. We're a bit above it.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnnHiAmb1WI/AAAAAAAAC8U/8YOeG7t_9Ek/s400/0620-%24vix.jpg
Apple (AAPL), on which I own a small put position, edged down both yesterday and today. Next Friday is when the JesusPhone gets introduced. Obviously it will be fascinating on the 29th to see what happens to the stock. To say this product is widely anticipated is a gross understatement.
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Apple (AAPL), on which I own a small put position, edged down both yesterday and today. Next Friday is when the JesusPhone gets introduced. Obviously it will be fascinating on the 29th to see what happens to the stock. To say this product is widely anticipated is a gross understatement.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnnHiQmb1XI/AAAAAAAAC8c/ysG5Fq7QhwA/s400/0620-aapl.jpg
Let me pause for a second to make a socionomic observation. I saw a full page ad in the WSJ this morning for a series on CNBC (of course) called American Greed. Just another sign of the apocalypse, folks. The world's vomit-inducing obsession with cash, stoked terribly over the past few years, is reaching the saturation point. Barf.
Real estate stocks are a strange one to me now. They have very toppy formations. But they have also fallen far enough to be resting on some pretty significant trendlines. It is a difficult call. Apartment Investments (AIV) is a good example. I don't have a position in this one, although I do in some others, such as ESS.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnnHXgmb1QI/AAAAAAAAC7k/Om2ZXO7ldYs/s400/0620-aiv.jpg
Bolt Tech (BTJ) finally started to fall a bit today, although it would be hard for any stock not to do so on a day like this. I have great hopes for this one.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnnHXwmb1RI/AAAAAAAAC7s/ZYyIk3WuuY4/s400/0620-btj.jpg
CVH doesn't have any particular bearish pattern per se, but it does look like what would normally be a really bullish breakout is going limp-dicked. And that's bearish. Oh, random thought: if you ever see anyone spell it per say, shoot them. Because they are an abomination to the gene pool. Aw, hell, let them live. Most people are idiots anyway. No harm in letting a few more loose.
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CVH doesn't have any particular bearish pattern per se, but it does look like what would normally be a really bullish breakout is going limp-dicked. And that's bearish. Oh, random thought: if you ever see anyone spell it per say, shoot them. Because they are an abomination to the gene pool. Aw, hell, let them live. Most people are idiots anyway. No harm in letting a few more loose.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnnHXwmb1SI/AAAAAAAAC70/bPiXKJB6IqE/s400/0620-cvh.jpg
I'm sorry to say I got stopped out of John Deere this morning, but it went on to form a lovely shooting star. Sigh. Could have to re-enter this sucker.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnnHYAmb1TI/AAAAAAAAC78/TRi6YPXiYAY/s400/0620-de.jpg
InfoSys (INFY) isn't my favorite pattern in the world, but as lower lows and lower highs go, it's not terrible.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnnHHgmb1MI/AAAAAAAAC7E/b2dMbbVv_M0/s400/0620-infy.jpg
Lehman Brothers (LEH) is mushed up against its Fib Fan. Nice.
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Lehman Brothers (LEH) is mushed up against its Fib Fan. Nice.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnnHHwmb1NI/AAAAAAAAC7M/bsj-MEf3PLg/s400/0620-leh.jpg
My bullish notes on ONT have panned out OK, but, I dunno, I'd edge away from this one unless it busts through yesterday's high. Volume is slipping fast. And if you look at the entire history of this stock, it definitely is not beneath wrecking a perfectly good bullish pattern by going limp.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnnHIAmb1OI/AAAAAAAAC7U/4BwKezFZ_Lc/s400/0620-ont.jpg
The SPY (whose options have a surprisingly sucky bid/ask spread) sports a nice bearish engulfing pattern. Heavenly Father, would you please make the market fall hard for more than one day in a row? Please?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnnHIQmb1PI/AAAAAAAAC7c/f2AwBIPL02Y/s400/0620-spy.jpg
Remember: it's a beautiful world.
at 6/20/2007 50 insightful comments
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Labels: $spx, $vix, aapl, ajc is a hermaphrodite, dia
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Tuesday, June 19, 2007The Show Must Go On
It was another relatively uninspiring day on the markets......but I dare not let a post go stale! So, as always, at least a few thoughts.
Akamai (AKAM) is a peculiarly slanted head and shoulders pattern which inched lower today, in spite of some general market strength.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnhVsgmb1JI/AAAAAAAAC6s/TEXThp6tXg8/s400/0619-akam.jpg
Albemarle (ALB).....and, good technician that I am, I have no clue what they do.... continues to fall nicely. There is really very little in the way of support on this stock, so I'll just keep tightening up my stocks.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnhVsgmb1KI/AAAAAAAAC60/QSxlywvs2Jc/s400/0619-alb.jpg
Just to show again I am not a bear a bear only, I've got a couple of bullish ideas. One of them is Blockbuster (BBI) which is trying......apparently with some success....to change their business model in the age of Netflix and Apple TV.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnhVsgmb1LI/AAAAAAAAC68/OyiMP2mG5gI/s400/0619-bbi.jpg
Another bullish idea - well, kinda - is DXD, which is a double inverse ETF based on the Dow 30. It's incredible how popular these things have become. Just look at that volume.
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Another bullish idea - well, kinda - is DXD, which is a double inverse ETF based on the Dow 30. It's incredible how popular these things have become. Just look at that volume.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnhVewmb1GI/AAAAAAAAC6U/J6dxftcG8wQ/s400/0619-dxd.jpg
A bullish idea I've mentioned before which is moving in the right direction is JetBlue (JBLU).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnhVewmb1HI/AAAAAAAAC6c/Lq223ayfJjE/s400/0619-jblu.jpg
My crusty old short in Sears Holding (SHLD) is ever-so-slowly moving downward. It finally edged beneath the support line you see drawn here.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RnhVfAmb1II/AAAAAAAAC6k/GEzEkfI2irw/s400/0619-shld.jpg
I'll see you here tomorrow.
at 6/19/2007 21 insightful comments
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Labels: akam, alb, bbi, dxd, jblu, shld