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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:48 编辑 ]
The S&P is approaching the re-entry point on that channel is busted above a number of weeks ago.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpQbXBJT-NI/AAAAAAAADMM/QqZT4o98jA8/s400/0710-%24spx.jpg
I've stopped buying puts on AutoZone - there's only so much punishment I enjoy - but this stock is really looking toppy.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpQbXRJT-OI/AAAAAAAADMU/337JP7OU0EQ/s400/0710-azo.jpg
Ol' beanie has mentioned BIDU so much I might as well put up a chart. My hat is off to any chart that can do this on a day like today.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpQbXxJT-PI/AAAAAAAADMc/Lc4dacZnfgE/s400/0710-bidu.jpg
I added to my Capital One Financial (COF) position.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:49 编辑 ]
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:50 编辑 ]
I added to my Capital One Financial (COF) position.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpQbYBJT-QI/AAAAAAAADMk/y8xpHh5x9vM/s400/0710-cof.jpg
The DIA puts aren't as clean a deal as the IWM or RUT puts, but they're OK - - decent volume and a 10 cent not-too-terrible bid/ask spread. I did a day trade on these today with good results.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpQa9hJT-HI/AAAAAAAADLc/iYyzbsbncF0/s400/0710-dia.jpg
Goldman Sachs (GS) continues to be a put position I believe in.....although the big plunge never seems to happen to AJC's employer.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpQa9xJT-II/AAAAAAAADLk/Lh9be-hqyno/s400/0710-gs.jpg
I've mentioned McKesson (MCK) many times because of its Fibonacci fans. Add to this now an imminent head and shoulders breakdown.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:51 编辑 ]
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:55 编辑 ]
I've mentioned McKesson (MCK) many times because of its Fibonacci fans. Add to this now an imminent head and shoulders breakdown.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpQa_xJT-JI/AAAAAAAADLs/VSXd14Gbbtw/s400/0710-mck.jpg
Someone mentioned SHLD in the comments section today.......thanks very much! I've mentioned Sears over and over. It's been inching down. Only today did it really take it in the groin.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpQbABJT-KI/AAAAAAAADL0/6Vpl221-Qao/s400/0710-shld.jpg
VMC is kind of an interesting pattern, inasmuch as it seems to be breaking below a pretty wide consolidation rectangle.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpQbAhJT-LI/AAAAAAAADL8/TuFwUuwT_7Q/s400/0710-vmc.jpg
I heard this tune today, and it reminded me of the markets.......to everything there is a season. Bears: I swear it's not too late.
at 7/10/2007 34 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, $spx, azo, bidu, cof, dia, gs, mck, shld, vmc
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:57 编辑 ]
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 06:59 编辑 ]
Monday, July 09, 2007Froth
How do you address the heartache of repetitious comments? How does one quell hyperbolic, bombastic touting of the same securities over and over? What can you do to temper a mix of English and Spanish comments? Yes, it's....
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpME1xJT-CI/AAAAAAAADK0/IfS2ZrX7zuA/s400/0709-%24beano.jpg
Sorry for the very late posting tonight. Long story. While up here in the (relative) wilderness, I was struck by this sign:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpME2RJT-DI/AAAAAAAADK8/9s-74qncuIQ/s400/0709-%24bear.jpg
The Dow, although up, still didn't signal a break yet. We're still in this flag pattern.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpME2RJT-EI/AAAAAAAADLE/t-NWekxdMXw/s400/0709-%24ind.jpg
Gold has had a very strong past couple of days, but it also is at the upper reaches of a well-established range.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpME2xJT-FI/AAAAAAAADLM/0CTIXPCHxzw/s400/0709-%24xau.jpg
I've been mentioned BEAS as a short for a couple of weeks now. It has a nice, clean stop at $14.20.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpME3BJT-GI/AAAAAAAADLU/Gag0JzKwEZ8/s400/0709-beas.jpg
Sotheby's (BID), which I've succesfully shorted before, might have a nice double top here.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 07:00 编辑 ]
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 07:02 编辑 ]
Sotheby's (BID), which I've succesfully shorted before, might have a nice double top here.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpMEkRJT99I/AAAAAAAADKM/NHM0QcUwH7k/s400/0709-bid.jpg
Honeywell might have registered a triple top. All these "mights" and "maybes" are annoying, I'm sure, but it's never clear until some time has passed. These are calculated risks.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpMEkhJT9-I/AAAAAAAADKU/vjG0Dpp-cXI/s400/0709-hon.jpg
Martin Marietta (MLM) is awfully lofty and seems to be losing its momentum at these heights.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpMElBJT9_I/AAAAAAAADKc/o9hC3WZIm2c/s400/0709-mlm.jpg
On the bullish side, I mentioned SCHN back on April 14th when the stock was $46. It has had a strong run since then, with a particularly strong surge upward today.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 07:02 编辑 ]
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 07:05 编辑 ]
On the bullish side, I mentioned SCHN back on April 14th when the stock was $46. It has had a strong run since then, with a particularly strong surge upward today.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpMElBJT-AI/AAAAAAAADKk/0L0NgK2JXaQ/s400/0709-schn.jpg
Another old favorite, Taser (TASR) seems to have found its second life. It has run up a bit much for me to be interested now, but a pullback to its breakout would make this an interesting buy.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RpMElhJT-BI/AAAAAAAADKs/0Tirg3xfKU0/s400/0709-tasr.jpg
at 7/09/2007 21 insightful comments
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Labels: $xau, beas, bid, hon, mlm, schn, tasr
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 07:05 编辑 ]
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 07:07 编辑 ]
Friday, July 06, 2007Prophet North
Up, then down. Up, then down. In spite of my optimism last Friday, I'm feeling that dealing with the markets these days is a Sisyphean task. We've been range-bound for many weeks, and it looks like we're at the top of that range again. Here's the Russell 2000 on an intraday basis.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro9WhhJT96I/AAAAAAAADJ0/i1dw1LVqT6E/s400/0707-%24rut.jpg
Of course the big question......and it only gets bigger every time we find ourselves at the extreme of a range.....is "break or bounce?" As with anything else in the world of charts, the longer a time period that price action is range-bound, the more dramatic the "escape" from that range.
So whereas I was optimistic before when we were near the bottom of the range (emotion check: greed), now I'm concerned we could bounce above this range and get back into full-blown bull mode (emotion check: fear). It's pretty clear that this week will give us the bounce-or-break answer. Here's the S&P 500 on a daily basis, and you can see the consolidation period over the past five weeks or so:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro9WiBJT97I/AAAAAAAADJ8/yKFOFMntjJU/s400/0707-%24spx.jpg
On an intraday basis, this range is very clear to see. Although prices typically take longer to climb than the fall, it seems that within this range, the motion is happening with similar speed. It only took a week from me to change my attitude from "oh, yeah!" to "awww, crap."
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro9WiBJT98I/AAAAAAAADKE/wDiCMdLiF34/s400/0707-%24spxintra.jpg
I haven't been following gold too closely, but wow, the $XAU chart is really in motion now. It is still in the range shown here, but Friday was a big day for the gold bulls.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 07:08 编辑 ]
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 07:10 编辑 ]
I haven't been following gold too closely, but wow, the $XAU chart is really in motion now. It is still in the range shown here, but Friday was a big day for the gold bulls.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro9WWhJT91I/AAAAAAAADJM/PZRsrzkmTA0/s400/0707-%24xau.jpg
Akamai is in an interesting breakdown pattern, albeit at an angle. Worth watching.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro9WWxJT92I/AAAAAAAADJU/uTUVH6nB5hc/s400/0707-akam.jpg
Chicago Mercantile (CME) is a good example of why it's important to wait for patterns to complete (I am guilty of ignoring this rule on occasion). As you can see, it was in a tremendously toppy pattern, but then it skittered away from the breakdown point and has done sensationally well since to the upside.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro9WXBJT93I/AAAAAAAADJc/VLFKcgyucUU/s400/0707-cme.jpg
If you do believe the market is ready to head south again, a short position on the DIA or puts on it are a pretty good bet, since both the stock and the options are so liquid.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 07:10 编辑 ]
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 07:12 编辑 ]
If you do believe the market is ready to head south again, a short position on the DIA or puts on it are a pretty good bet, since both the stock and the options are so liquid.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro9WXBJT94I/AAAAAAAADJk/Eew_otkTHoA/s400/0707-dia.jpg
Micron (MU) is a stock I've mentioned as a bullish idea for the past couple of weeks. It looks better than ever. Just look at Friday's push upward.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro9WXRJT95I/AAAAAAAADJs/w--Y3SJuSic/s400/0707-mu.jpg
I'm sorry this post was late; as I mentioned, I was heading to Lake Tahoe and that took a big bite out of my day. Enjoy your weekend, and I'll see you Monday evening.
at 7/06/2007 65 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, $spx, $xau, akam, cme
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 07:16 编辑 ]
Thursday, July 05, 2007The Voice of Optimism
Everyone knows the old saying: "If you Can't Beat 'em, Join 'em". So I submit myself to the New Normal. I embrace that Things Are Different This Time. I surrender my soul to the wisdom of the bulls. Let us gather hands around the truth together.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro1ZnhJT9wI/AAAAAAAADIk/bBXzKMxg3NI/s400/0706-detector.jpg
Corporate debt is a positive. First, because interest rates are so low, it represents virtually free money for private equity firms to maximize value to shareholders through buyout transactions. Those making access to this debt are trained professionals and are managing the debt load - and its risks - responsibly.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro1ZnhJT9xI/AAAAAAAADIs/DMZrRfcW6Yc/s400/0706-debt.jpg
The booming Chinese economy is putting some strain on the environment, yes, but the Chinese have learned from the lessons learned in the British and American industrial revolutions and have taken the steps necessary to protect their environment for the sake of those that consume their products, for the sake of the economy in the long term, and for the sake of future generations.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro1ZnxJT9yI/AAAAAAAADI0/x7A6_mhz9Ow/s400/0706-china.jpg
The manic building in Dubai, Shanghai, and other emerging economies is exhilarating, and the race to see who can wind up with the world's tallest building just adds to the fun. The building boom is not overdone. On the contrary, Dubai - - until recently, a sweltering, barren desert - will become the top tourist attraction on the planet. The strength of the oil economy will allow this entire region to blossom for decades to come as the new epicenter of global capitalism and prosperity.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro1ZnxJT9zI/AAAAAAAADI8/x-yMtC1y-is/s400/0706-dubai.jpg
The housing "bust" is completely overblown. Yes, there are some isolated instances of damage from the sub-prime lending debacle, but it is completely contained. Although the red-hot pace of housing gains from years past will rest steady for a while, there is in fact no housing "bust", and thus no aftereffects to the economy at large.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro1ZnxJT90I/AAAAAAAADJE/T3Hc2fRY4mQ/s400/0706-housing.jpg
The fact that the savings rate has dropped into negative territory is simply illustrative of strong consumer spending. We live in an age of rapid change, and adapting and embracing that change takes money. Here in the United States, we are simply helping lead the way by taking part in an exciting new time of electronic and communications wizardry.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro1ZWhJT9rI/AAAAAAAADH8/q6qQAkAVyDw/s400/0706-savingsrate.jpg
The U.S. equity markets are not overpriced. Indeed, as the private equity buyouts of late illustrate, stocks in the U.S. are undervalued.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro1ZWxJT9sI/AAAAAAAADIE/FZA7yBqxmhA/s400/0706-indu.jpg
By the same token, the Chinese stock market offers a store of value that will only continue to rise. A value of 8,000 on the Shanghai index seems almost a foregone conclusion, particularly since the number "8" is widely considered to be lucky in China.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro1ZWxJT9tI/AAAAAAAADIM/VrpgmSTZw8s/s400/0706-shanghai.jpg
Some many say that the tremendous push of wealth to the highest echelons of society will create social unrest and turmoil. "Some" are wrong. There are about 1,000 billionaires in the world today (up from zero in 1915), controlling nearly $3 trillion in wealth. The couple of billion people in the world that live in poverty will view these billionaires as inspirational.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Ro1ZXBJT9vI/AAAAAAAADIc/oGSgpWt8mao/s400/0706-wealthdist.jpg
There's plenty more good news in the world. The Blackstone IPO was not an opportunistic event meant to exploit the naivete of investors buying at the top of a market. It was simply a means by which the principals in the organization could tap into some of the value they had built while at the same time providing a means for the common man to participate in this exciting new investment vehicle.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 07:19 编辑 ]
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 07:20 编辑 ]