Not to say that I'm unhappy with today's small tumble. A look at the major indexes shows they are very tired. Here's the S&P 500:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlTJ2Le8riI/AAAAAAAACnE/eEsaX2_KICA/s400/0523-%24spx.jpg
And here is the broader Major Market Index ($XMI):
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlTJ27e8rjI/AAAAAAAACnM/G3eFSBB4nAA/s400/0523-%24xmi.jpg
There's an interesting article by Herb Greenberg about the fact that brokerage margin debt is at a . Obviously people are willing to go into debt on a widespread basis to buy into the recent mania. If you think the shorts are only going to get squeezed worse, you might want to which focuses on opportunities to go long on stocks that may be squeezed up.
I am still short Akamai (AKAM), and its head and shoulders pattern (an obvious favorite of mine) is nicely intact.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlTJj7e8raI/AAAAAAAACmE/w6EuzYyPs2k/s400/0523-akam.jpg
AutoZone (AZO) is finally getting serious about falling.
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AutoZone (AZO) is finally getting serious about falling.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlTJkbe8rbI/AAAAAAAACmM/Vhxpfx_uVJU/s400/0523-azo.jpg
Carnival (CCL), which had some recent strength, is again at a relatively low-risk zone for shorting.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlTJlbe8rcI/AAAAAAAACmU/YEWnok8qZnU/s400/0523-ccl.jpg
Housing stocks, strong yesterday, are a safer short now. Here is Essex (ESS):
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlTJmLe8rdI/AAAAAAAACmc/F--Gt80DCVU/s400/0523-ess.jpg
Infosys (INFY) is inching ever-so-slowly toward its neckline. If and when the neckline is broken, a substantial fall would seem in order.
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Infosys (INFY) is inching ever-so-slowly toward its neckline. If and when the neckline is broken, a substantial fall would seem in order.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlTJm7e8reI/AAAAAAAACmk/L5miPTTGQaA/s400/0523-infy.jpg
Martin Marietta (MLM) may have double-topped here, and it is far above its supporting trendline.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlTJTre8rXI/AAAAAAAACls/hMRj5iL8cMs/s400/0523-mlm.jpg
Morgan Stanley (MS) is sporting a nice shooting star today. Granted, many recent shooting stars have been rendered moot by the market's strength. Still........
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlTJU7e8rYI/AAAAAAAACl0/QlxIb6_M04w/s400/0523-ms.jpg
And Whirlpool (WHR) is likewise far enough above its supporting trendline to present an attractive short (or put-buying) possibility.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlTJV7e8rZI/AAAAAAAACl8/4wR_Yyd-_gM/s400/0523-whr.jpg
There's coming out tomorrow morning. It should make for an interesting session.
at 5/23/2007 14 insightful comments
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Labels: $spx, $xmi, akam, azo, ccl, ess, greenspan, infy, mlm, msft, whr
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Tuesday, May 22, 2007Small Caps Catch Up
The market pushed higher today in fits and starts, and in the end, the Dow and S&P 500 closed down a little while the Russell 2000 - home of smaller cap stocks - pushed to a new high.
Even though the market seems unfazed by the weakness in NZD/USD, it is still worth watching. This currency pair has done a decent job indicating recent turning points in the market.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlNqhLe8rSI/AAAAAAAAClE/7om0SOca1Zo/s400/0522-%24nzd.jpg
One stock I don't think I've mentioned before is Bunge. This has made a flag pattern recently. You can make of the pattern what you will:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlNqjLe8rTI/AAAAAAAAClM/00-w2ZzNYlw/s400/0522-bg.jpg
BTJ has been a recent high-flier that might make a good short candidate:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlNqjbe8rUI/AAAAAAAAClU/sI5qCrePK4w/s400/0522-btj.jpg
CRS had a nice breakout a few weeks ago, but this breakout seems to be losing steam in a big hurry. Failed breakouts make great shorts.
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CRS had a nice breakout a few weeks ago, but this breakout seems to be losing steam in a big hurry. Failed breakouts make great shorts.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlNqlLe8rVI/AAAAAAAAClc/9OPDS8VVQwI/s400/0522-crs.jpg
Much of the housing sector - - lenders such as AHC as well as builders like BZH - had a nice bounce higher today. I took it as a good opportunity to enter some shorts of stocks that were retracing their head and shoulders pattern to the neckline, such as ESS, shown here.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlNqlbe8rWI/AAAAAAAAClk/QAkC5E1nMYA/s400/0522-ess.jpg
Honeywell (HON) is starting to lose ground.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlNqTLe8rOI/AAAAAAAACkk/-HfoH846qRY/s400/0522-hon.jpg
....as is Microsoft (MSFT)...
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....as is Microsoft (MSFT)...
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlNqUre8rPI/AAAAAAAACks/DMVhinqCK1Q/s400/0522-msft.jpg
A couple of long suggestions. JetBlue, mentioned here not long ago as a potential buy, looks good. A series of higher lows and agreeable volume trends make this a handsome candidate for puchase.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlNqWre8rQI/AAAAAAAACk0/xksOB5AeSwg/s400/0522-jblu.jpg
And Questar (STR), also mentioned in the past, continues to prosper after its well-formed breakout.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlNqW7e8rRI/AAAAAAAACk8/LP4WdJ-bS4M/s400/0522-str.jpg
at 5/22/2007 15 insightful comments
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Labels: bg, btj, crs, ess, hon, jblu, msft, nzd/usd, str
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Monday, May 21, 2007The Indexes Change Places
I noticed MarketWatch was touting the idea that the S&P was at a new high. Not quite. With their tortured logic, the S&P's high today was higher than the highest closing price. Well, yeah, that's true. But that's comparing apples and oranges. Who cares?
According to my data, the highest price reached by the S&P on an intraday basis was 1552.87 on 3/24/2000, and the highest closing price was 1527.57 on the same day Today's high was 1529.87 and the close was 1525.10. It's a pretty sure bet there will be a new high on the S&P 500 tomorrow, but let's at least wait for it to happen before touting the news, shall we? Anyhoo, here's the $INDU:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlH_FLe8rLI/AAAAAAAACkM/tYw8xdDKqzs/s400/0521-%24indu.jpg
The indexes, until recently, have had all their firepower in the Dow 30. That was not the case today. The Dow actually inched down in price, whereas the Russell 2000 blasted higher by 1.21%. It seems the small caps are finally playing catch-up.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlH_Fbe8rMI/AAAAAAAACkU/c9VCmCR0LGE/s400/0521-%24rut.jpg
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) inched down today and continues to shape a nice topping pattern.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlH_Fre8rNI/AAAAAAAACkc/v28RuPviAP4/s400/0521-cme.jpg
I like to look for stocks that are far away from their supporting trendline and seem to be flipping around to a downward direction. CSX fits this.
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I like to look for stocks that are far away from their supporting trendline and seem to be flipping around to a downward direction. CSX fits this.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlH-8be8rHI/AAAAAAAACjs/JIDs_0I4r-c/s400/0521-csx.jpg
ESS looks like it is inching up toward its neckline, which could make for a relatively low-risk head and shoulders pattern to play on the short side.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlH-87e8rII/AAAAAAAACj0/Pu-_qSfEWq4/s400/0521-ess.jpg
JC Penney also is forming its head and shoulders cleanly. Of course, one must be cautious to trade incomplete patterns, as a single price bar would render it moot.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlH-9Le8rJI/AAAAAAAACj8/kLqa06dvVFk/s400/0521-jcp.jpg
KRC is another homebuilder with a similar pattern forming like ESS.
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KRC is another homebuilder with a similar pattern forming like ESS.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RlH-9be8rKI/AAAAAAAACkE/-fuFUh7OLrY/s400/0521-krc.jpg
On a final note - one frequent commenter, Gary, has mentioned the Commitment of Traders many times in the comments section. I was intrigued and did some basic research, but I find this data difficult to interpret. I guess I'm a sucker for easy-to-read graphs. I would appreciate his illuminating this issue in the comments section to give us a bit of a tutorial on the subject, since it sounds interesting; thanks in advance.
at 5/21/2007 14 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $spx, cme, csx, ess, jcp, krc
Friday, May 18, 2007Sheer Energy
Another record. This is getting really monotonous.
One index that hasn't actually reached a new record, but is within a hair's breadth of it, is the S&P 500. It peaked back in January of 2000, and if Monday is up at all, it will almost certainly reach a new record closing high (and I don't need to tell you the financial media will make a huge stink about it).
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rk4ON7e8rCI/AAAAAAAACjE/sUBg46-ivUY/s400/0518-%24spx.jpg
The $VIX remains very, very low, indicating widespread complacency. You can see how the VIX deteriorated from 2003 through 2005 and has remained low ever since. There was a time when the normal VIX range was between 20 and 50 or so. These days, it's lucky to even stay in the teens.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rk4OOre8rDI/AAAAAAAACjM/LQXzh4VSNMY/s400/0518-%24vix.jpg
Real estate has been getting hit, in spite of the market's overall strength. I've got a number of real estate shorts, one of them being AIV.
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http://photo.ce.cn/main/jrkd/200704/20/W020070420358577692961.jpg
Real estate has been getting hit, in spite of the market's overall strength. I've got a number of real estate shorts, one of them being AIV.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rk4OO7e8rEI/AAAAAAAACjU/B1wmYS5z82E/s400/0518-aiv.jpg
Akamai (AKAM), which I am short, went up some today, but I am still comfortable that this pattern is safely beneath its neckline.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rk4OPbe8rFI/AAAAAAAACjc/w11JX0pb3pw/s400/0518-akam.jpg
One days like this, if you see major stocks with weakness, that's usually a very bearish sign. The CME is a good example.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rk4OP7e8rGI/AAAAAAAACjk/xnpdZTUdCQQ/s400/0518-cme.jpg
InfoSys (INFY) is an even better example, since its pattern is more clearcut.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-1 12:25 编辑 ]
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