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发表于 2009-4-29 10:19
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Thursday, June 07, 2007Love So Deep, Kills You In Your Sleep
I'm no better. I just know I'm not any better of a person than any of the bulls that frequent this board.
When the market is roaring higher........when bears like me are getting slaughtered .........it's only natural that you gloat. You announce how the market is just going to keep going up forever. You wish for the destruction of all the bears. And you offer up reasons why It's Different This Time and there will never be a down market in your lifetime.
So - as the kids say, good on you, because I'm no better than that. The market is a battlefield. Wiser souls - of which many claim to be, but hardly any of them are - are truly neutral, and they position themselves to try to take advantage of the ebb and flow. Mere mortals, like your humble narrator, tend to be more dogmatic. History - and human nature - tend to make the vast majority of them bulls. And a vanishingly small number are bears. So - join hands around the campfire, and let's sing!
I hate you. You hate me. We're a trading family. With a big fat drop, and a knife from me to you. This one day, you get the screw.
So allow me to remind everyone of the disposition just four trading sessions ago. Last Friday, June 1st. Hardly a blip in time. The Dow had made another lifetime closing high. Let's review some of the comments offered up:
Permabull NewEquity wrote: I just bought 100 DIA calls mid-day for the ride back up through all time highs. No resistance at all and we should break 14k Dow in the next 3 weeks according to my tech analysis guy.
John (B) predicted, regarding the S&P 500, whose closing price today was 1490.72: "Putting these numbers in my model, the 500 fair value today is 2,300...and based on earnings for next year, fair value would be about 2,800."
And, lastly, Beanie11111 declared the bottom for a number of stocks: "...AKAM has bottomed...SBUX has bottomed.....WFMI has bottomed." As a follow-up, in the mere four days since that post, those stocks have declined 3.2%, 5.9%, and 6.5%, respectively. So I guess some people have different understanding of bottoms than others.
Suffice it to say, the past three days have been very good for me. Indeed, I had trouble deciding what charts to show, because they are all gorgeous. Every single one - every one - of my dozens of positions pushed way higher today. I even made some very profitable intraday option trades - both long and short! - with the Russell 2000.
The Dow fell 1.48% today. And, after the regular market closed, the ETFs on the indexes just kept falling. The DIA wound up down 1.96%.
I actually would not be surprised to see a very short, very sharp drop first thing in the morning followed by a rip-roaring push up. Looking at this channel, it seems to me the selling is a touch overdone (on the very short term) at this point. You hear me, fellers? I'm not saying we're going to enjoy another 4th day plunge. Nice as it would be.
Zooming in closer, you can see what I mean. Now, of course, all trendlines are eventually broken. And if the one shown here is decisively snapped, it could be a new ball game. But the past 11 months have made me paranoid, and although the last 3 days have been sensible, I still don't trust this market or its participants.
Akamai (AKAM) hasn't plunged as fast as I hoped, but it's doing OK. It's still a very nice pattern, and I've got some nice green on this one.
CSX is way the hell above its trendline, and it is sporting a cute little head and shoulders pattern to boot. |
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