一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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Conversely, companies which suffer due to high fuel costs got hurt today. My short recommendation of American Airlines (AMR) is doing well.


One I don't think I've mentioned in the past on the short side is BEA Systems (BEAS).


I have, however, mentioned Bunge (BG) a few times, and this one is shaping up nicely.


Capital One (COF) is sort of stuck right now. I own puts on it, and they haven't done a thing, but I am still hopeful about this position.

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Capital One (COF) is sort of stuck right now. I own puts on it, and they haven't done a thing, but I am still hopeful about this position.


Federal Realty Trust (FRT - "don't giggle at our ticker, please") looks like a clean bearish trade to me as well.


I don't mention Google (GOOG) much, but this stock looks like a strong buy (yep, buy). This chart is strong, and the volume has been inching higher. Obviously this company is an ungodly powerhouse and is doing well at the expense of poor Yahoo,


I bought puts on Honeywell (HON) today. Maybe a lil' double top here.

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I bought puts on Honeywell (HON) today. Maybe a lil' double top here.


The investment banks seem to be edging south, in spite of the market's continued strength. Merrill Lynch (MER) in particular looks good for a short play.


at 6/04/2007 34 insightful comments
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Labels: amr, apa, beas, bg, cof, frt, goog, hon, mer, new highs, oih, yhoo

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Friday, June 01, 2007Some Weekend Ideas
Another day, another record in the markets. So it goes, right?

Looking at the long-term Dow 30 chart, I frankly don't see any clear place where the push higher is going to stop, at least from a technical standpoint. We are sort of in unchartered territory. Only a sea-change in something.......a monstrous terrorist attack......a fundamental downturn in the economy......is going to make a difference.


Ken Fisher has a pretty good point where he talks about the spread between the E/P value (that's not a typo - earnings divided by price) and prevailing corporate interest rates. I'm paraphrasing, but his rationale goes something like this - the average P/E on the S&P 500 is about 17 right now, which means the E/P is akin to an interest rate of 5.8%.

However, the cost of borrowing money (for which a corporation can deduct the interest) is, once you factor the tax savings, less than 4%. So it's more economically efficient to borrow tons of cash and buy back stock. In his view, until that gap is closed, the market should continue to go higher. Assuming neither interest rates nor earnings (the "E") change, a rational value of the Dow would be at something like 18,000.

I've been battered enough over the past year to not question that kind of assumption. I'm not putting my money on it, but there's no reason to say it couldn't happen.

The American Stock Exchange's $XMI index had looked like it was going to start heading south again, but nope - it pushed to another lifetime high.


I've got a few specific stocks you might want to check out. If you think just about all the good news that can be had about Apple (the AppleTV/YouTube functionality, the forthcoming iPhone, the raging success of the iPod......) is out there and that AAPL is price for perfection, consider some puts on this high-flying stock.


Coach (COH), the purse/leather giant, also might be prone to a fall.

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Coach (COH), the purse/leather giant, also might be prone to a fall.


I like the look of Excelon (EXC) here too, for a bearish play.


For bulls, Micron (MU) seems to be turning higher after a prolonged slump. It had a really good day today, and volume has been surging over the past several months.


Those who miss the goofy videos and funny pictures will have to wait until this market gets easier for me to understand. For the time being, it's just dry charts and sober analysis.
at 6/01/2007 55 insightful comments
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Thursday, May 31, 2007Talk About the Weather
I've always felt a bit sorry for meteorologists here in the San Francisco Bay Area. Because, between about April and October, they really have very little to say. The forecast is, more or less, as follows: "There will be patchy morning fog, clearing by late morning. Highs on the coast will be in the lower to mid 60s, with lower to mid 70s around the Bay and low 80s farther inland." It varies little from day to day, week to week, month to month. No rain. No hail. No nothing.

I'm starting to feel a bit like that about the markets these days. "Horrible economic news was reported to me. The markets rallied on the news to historic new highs. Bearish patterns were laid waste."

Oh, well. At least we didn't go up another 120 points today. The economy came in with the weakest numbers since 2002, and the Dow was basically unchanged. Looking at the RSI and slow stochastic, you can see how the market is seeming awfully tired, in spite of the progression in prices.


Much the same can be said of the S&P 500 ($SPX).


I was distraught at all the gorgeous real estate head & shoulders patterns getting trounced yesterday, but maybe there is hope yet. Apartment Investments (AIV) is no longer a perfect H&S, but today's weakness is a good sign.


I haven't posted American Airlines (AMR) in a while, but this is a head and shoulders pattern which remains cleanly intact with what appears to be a nice retracement to the neckline in progress.

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I haven't posted American Airlines (AMR) in a while, but this is a head and shoulders pattern which remains cleanly intact with what appears to be a nice retracement to the neckline in progress.


JC Penney hasn't completed its pattern yet, but - - - it could! Keep an eye on it.


A lot of investment banks seem exhausted lately, whether you look at GS, LEH, or any of many others. Here is Morgan Stanley (MS), which seems to have made a bit of a double top.


Whirlpool (WHR), a Dow 30 component, is very lofty right now. This seems to me a short with an attractive risk/reward ratio.





[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 16:39 编辑 ]

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Whirlpool (WHR), a Dow 30 component, is very lofty right now. This seems to me a short with an attractive risk/reward ratio.


And the Big Oil stocks - Exxon Mobil (XOM) is a favorite of mine to watch - likewise have an attractive risk/reward ratio for shorting right now.


There's a ton of economic news tomorrow morning. Let's see if June gets off to a better start for the bears than May was.
at 5/31/2007 18 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $spx, aiv, amr, jcp, msft, whr, xom


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Wednesday, May 30, 2007The Price of Tea in China
Unstoppable. The bulls are simply unstoppable.

As you know, before the market opened this morning, it was greeted by the news that China's stock market had fallen more than 6% (that would be like the Dow falling over 800 points here). Naturally, our markets opened lower. And they spent the day pushing higher.

To a new record close.

The Dow's at a lifetime high. So is the Russell 2000. And, unless I'm mistaken, so is the S&P 500. It's enough to make me consider renaming this blog The Wall of Worry.

In a balls-out bull market, traditionally bearish patterns get squashed. The chart below is a good example. This is a great-looking head and shoulders pattern. Or at least it was, as indicated by the highlight. But the market doesn't care. It's simply too strong, and this pattern - as with so many others - has been neutered.


I am buying energy stocks, because they are just about the only bullish charts that look like they have firepower behind them, as opposed to just being momentum plays. Here's Apache Corp (APA). Notice the good surge in volume on today, a very good "up" day.



Much the same can be said of Southwestern Energy (SWN).


That's about all I have to say today. This is just getting to be a bit much!


at 5/30/2007 34 insightful comments
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Tuesday, May 29, 2007Indecision
For those of you who didn't read this morning's post, please check out  which is a little something I've been putting together. I'd love it for some of the readers here to contribute.

The market is in a pretty serious state of indecision. It could be just gathering its breath before it makes an assault on Dow 14,000. Looking at the Dow 30 over the past few months, however, it seems the technical indicators point to a reduction in prices as opposed to a fresh surge.


The Major Market Index ($XMI), although shaped differently, seems to present a similar argument. Especially if the old saw "Sell in May and Go Away" holds true.


The head and shoulders pattern, a favorite of mine, showtimes holds together and sometimes doesn't. Akamai (AKAM), mentioned here often recently, seems to be moving in accordance to its pattern.


Real estate stocks, on the other hand, seem to have violated their recent head and shoulders pattern across the board. Essex (ESS), shown below, is a good example - as is the much broader IYR. This doesn't necessarily mean the bearish pattern is moot. But it definitely diminishes its credibility, since prices have soared above the neckline.