一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

....as is Microsoft (MSFT)...


A couple of long suggestions. JetBlue, mentioned here not long ago as a potential buy, looks good. A series of higher lows and agreeable volume trends make this a handsome candidate for puchase.


And Questar (STR), also mentioned in the past, continues to prosper after its well-formed breakout.


at 5/22/2007 15 insightful comments
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Labels: bg, btj, crs, ess, hon, jblu, msft, nzd/usd, str

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Monday, May 21, 2007The Indexes Change Places

I noticed MarketWatch was touting the idea that the S&P was at a new high. Not quite. With their tortured logic, the S&P's high today was higher than the highest closing price. Well, yeah, that's true. But that's comparing apples and oranges. Who cares?

According to my data, the highest price reached by the S&P on an intraday basis was 1552.87 on 3/24/2000, and the highest closing price was 1527.57 on the same day Today's high was 1529.87 and the close was 1525.10. It's a pretty sure bet there will be a new high on the S&P 500 tomorrow, but let's at least wait for it to happen before touting the news, shall we? Anyhoo, here's the $INDU:


The indexes, until recently, have had all their firepower in the Dow 30. That was not the case today. The Dow actually inched down in price, whereas the Russell 2000 blasted higher by 1.21%. It seems the small caps are finally playing catch-up.


The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) inched down today and continues to shape a nice topping pattern.


I like to look for stocks that are far away from their supporting trendline and seem to be flipping around to a downward direction. CSX fits this.

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hefeiddd

I like to look for stocks that are far away from their supporting trendline and seem to be flipping around to a downward direction. CSX fits this.


ESS looks like it is inching up toward its neckline, which could make for a relatively low-risk head and shoulders pattern to play on the short side.


JC Penney also is forming its head and shoulders cleanly. Of course, one must be cautious to trade incomplete patterns, as a single price bar would render it moot.


KRC is another homebuilder with a similar pattern forming like ESS.

hefeiddd

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hefeiddd

KRC is another homebuilder with a similar pattern forming like ESS.


On a final note - one frequent commenter, Gary, has mentioned the Commitment of Traders many times in the comments section. I was intrigued and did some basic research, but I find this data difficult to interpret. I guess I'm a sucker for easy-to-read graphs. I would appreciate his illuminating this issue in the comments section to give us a bit of a tutorial on the subject, since it sounds interesting; thanks in advance.

at 5/21/2007 14 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $spx, cme, csx, ess, jcp, krc


Friday, May 18, 2007Sheer Energy
Another record. This is getting really monotonous.

One index that hasn't actually reached a new record, but is within a hair's breadth of it, is the S&P 500. It peaked back in January of 2000, and if Monday is up at all, it will almost certainly reach a new record closing high (and I don't need to tell you the financial media will make a huge stink about it).


The $VIX remains very, very low, indicating widespread complacency. You can see how the VIX deteriorated from 2003 through 2005 and has remained low ever since. There was a time when the normal VIX range was between 20 and 50 or so. These days, it's lucky to even stay in the teens.


Real estate has been getting hit, in spite of the market's overall strength. I've got a number of real estate shorts, one of them being AIV.

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hefeiddd

Real estate has been getting hit, in spite of the market's overall strength. I've got a number of real estate shorts, one of them being AIV.


Akamai (AKAM), which I am short, went up some today, but I am still comfortable that this pattern is safely beneath its neckline.


One days like this, if you see major stocks with weakness, that's usually a very bearish sign. The CME is a good example.


InfoSys (INFY) is an even better example, since its pattern is more clearcut.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-1 12:25 编辑 ]

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hefeiddd

InfoSys (INFY) is an even better example, since its pattern is more clearcut.


The thirty stocks which comprise the Dow 30 Industrials have obviously been very strong, by and large. MMM is no exception, although it seems awfully lofty right now, and it is sporting an impressive shooting star with today's action.


Energy has been incredibly strong. I've mentioned some oil service stocks here recently as good bullish plays. But even looking at the general OIH stock, which represents an amalgam of oil service securities, you can witness the terrific strength lately.


PSB is an other short of mine that has been enjoying the real estate tumble.

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hefeiddd

PSB is an other short of mine that has been enjoying the real estate tumble.


Finally, VNO is another participant in the real estate slump, and it features a really nicely-defined head and shoulders pattern.


at 5/18/2007 45 insightful comments
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Labels: $spx, $vix, aiv, akam, cme, infy, mmm, oih, psb, vno


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Thursday, May 17, 2007Snoozer
I see  have signed up for MyBlogLog. Cool. Basically what it lets you do is sign up with your name and a photo, and you can check out what your fellow readers are also reading. It's a pretty cool way to amble around the community of readers we have on this blog and find interesting new stuff.

Today was a rather yawner day. The Industrials crossed above the 13,500 market, and then slumped in the last part of the day to close slightly down. The Dow is really running on fumes at this point, given its rapid ascent.


I keep an eye on the currency markets too. I've mentioned the NZD/USD here many times before. As you can see, there is a very strong correlation recently between the NZD/USD and the U.S. Markets (I've used the S&P 500 here).


The $XMI is also a good illustration of how the market may be in a position to "roll over" after this explosive upswing.


I'm hanging onto my BSC puts. They are doing OK - nothing spectacular yet.

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hefeiddd

I'm hanging onto my BSC puts. They are doing OK - nothing spectacular yet.


Energy stock DRQ, mentioned here bullishly before, looks better than ever. I'd put a stop of $44.11 on this.


A reader mentioned ESS as a good short idea today. I agree! (A similar conclusion could be had with VON).


My InfoSys (INFY) short is also doing pretty well, although it needs to break that neckline to get juicy.

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My InfoSys (INFY) short is also doing pretty well, although it needs to break that neckline to get juicy.


It might be a good second chance for those of you wanting to be short JC Penney (JCP) to get in at a better price now.


PSB - like many real estate stocks today - fell pretty hard, and it is right on the cusp of violating its neckline. Lovely!


Another bullish energy play - SWN - looks terrific.


Go sign up for MyBlogLog if you haven't already! :-)
at 5/17/2007 29 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $xmi, bsc, drq, ess, infy, jcp, psb, swn

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