一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

111111111111111111

hefeiddd

Real estate stocks, on the other hand, seem to have violated their recent head and shoulders pattern across the board. Essex (ESS), shown below, is a good example - as is the much broader IYR. This doesn't necessarily mean the bearish pattern is moot. But it definitely diminishes its credibility, since prices have soared above the neckline.


Symbol ALB seems to be forming a nice trend change as well. I would say this is another head and shoulders pattern as well. They seem to be common these days.


at 5/29/2007 11 insightful comments
Links to this post
Labels: $indu, $xmi, akam, ess









Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

111111111111111111

hefeiddd

Wednesday, October 8, 2008On The Floor - The Markets - In Pictures








[url=htthttp://english.aljazeera.net/bus ... 91661334696911.html][/url]














at Wednesday, October 08, 2008 1 comments
Labels: http://media.tumblr.com/bLjlTcuJUetvjrrxdCenOkoeo1_400.jpg

hefeiddd

Thursday, May 24, 2007Some Day This War's Gonna End
It was a good day today. At first, I was distressed to see the Dow blasting higher, well past the 13,600 mark. It was up nearly 100 points. But I noticed something. Looking at the $RUT and the $SPX, they were not at new highs. In fact, it looked like the Dow's strength was just pushing them into making a right shoulder on an intraday head and shoulders pattern. So I bought more puts.

That was the right move. The Dow went limp, soft, and squishy, and we enjoy a nearly 200 point intraday turnaround. Every single position of mine was way in the green.

Oh, please remember to sign up  which now has nearly 100 members! It's free, and it's a fun way to see the other folks that have made the trip to The Slope of Hope.

Now, I am maintaining my cautious and newly humble disposition, so I will say, in the face of today's fall, that we must exercise caution. Just look at all the recent falls in the past few months. Every single one of them was just a blip - a momentary pause - before the market shot higher still. So a grudging respect for the bulls is in order.


I mentioned Bunge Ltd (BG), and it is doing beautiful. The perfect presentation of lower highs and lower lows.


I mentioned yesterday that housing stocks had pushed up to their necklines, and I was going heavily short to enjoy the hoped-for fall. It did just that. It's nice when patterns behave as they should. Here's Essex (ESS) as just one example.


InfoSys (INFY) at long last cracked beneath its neckline. Now we can get serious about making some cash on this one.


PSB also enjoyed the aforementioned housing H&S fall.

hefeiddd

1111111111111111

hefeiddd

PSB also enjoyed the aforementioned housing H&S fall.


Vornado (VNO), suggested by a reader here last week, is another honey.


Whirlpool (WHR - has that for a boring company?) is flipping direction too. Good.


And now, your thought for the day.


at 5/24/2007 28 insightful comments
Links to this post
Labels: bg, ess, infy, psb, vno, whr

hefeiddd

111111111111111111

hefeiddd

Wednesday, May 23, 2007Thanks, Alan
The market surged again this morning. The S&P 500 was at a new lifetime high. As was the Russell 2000. As was the Dow 30. It looked like Dow 14,000 was just around the corner.

Then Alan Greenspan - bless him - threw some cold water on the excitement by speculating the Chinese market was overheated and headed for a fall. That's all it took to render the breakout (shown in green) moot (shown in pink).


Now, the Old Tim would have been dancing around shouting about how it's the end of the world. But the New Improved Tim With Integrated Timing (figure the acronym out for yourself), severely humbled over the past year, will do nothing of the sort. Indeed, if you think back to Greenspan's most famous declaration ever - - "irrational exuberance" - - it might be instructive. He said it on December 5, 1996, and you can see the brief aftermath here:


But if you take a longer view, you will note that the irrational exuberance had barely even started. The market went up hundreds of percent more, as measured by the NASDAQ.


Not to say that I'm unhappy with today's small tumble. A look at the major indexes shows they are very tired. Here's the S&P 500:

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-1 12:30 编辑 ]

hefeiddd

11111111111111

hefeiddd

Not to say that I'm unhappy with today's small tumble. A look at the major indexes shows they are very tired. Here's the S&P 500:


And here is the broader Major Market Index ($XMI):


There's an interesting article by Herb Greenberg about the fact that brokerage margin debt is at a . Obviously people are willing to go into debt on a widespread basis to buy into the recent mania. If you think the shorts are only going to get squeezed worse, you might want to which focuses on opportunities to go long on stocks that may be squeezed up.

I am still short Akamai (AKAM), and its head and shoulders pattern (an obvious favorite of mine) is nicely intact.


AutoZone (AZO) is finally getting serious about falling.

hefeiddd

11111111111111111111111111

hefeiddd

AutoZone (AZO) is finally getting serious about falling.


Carnival (CCL), which had some recent strength, is again at a relatively low-risk zone for shorting.


Housing stocks, strong yesterday, are a safer short now. Here is Essex (ESS):


Infosys (INFY) is inching ever-so-slowly toward its neckline. If and when the neckline is broken, a substantial fall would seem in order.

hefeiddd

1111111111111

hefeiddd

Infosys (INFY) is inching ever-so-slowly toward its neckline. If and when the neckline is broken, a substantial fall would seem in order.


Martin Marietta (MLM) may have double-topped here, and it is far above its supporting trendline.


Morgan Stanley (MS) is sporting a nice shooting star today. Granted, many recent shooting stars have been rendered moot by the market's strength. Still........


And Whirlpool (WHR) is likewise far enough above its supporting trendline to present an attractive short (or put-buying) possibility.


There's coming out tomorrow morning. It should make for an interesting session.
at 5/23/2007 14 insightful comments
Links to this post
Labels: $spx, $xmi, akam, azo, ccl, ess, greenspan, infy, mlm, msft, whr


Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

1111111111111111111111

hefeiddd

Tuesday, May 22, 2007Small Caps Catch Up
The market pushed higher today in fits and starts, and in the end, the Dow and S&P 500 closed down a little while the Russell 2000 - home of smaller cap stocks - pushed to a new high.

Even though the market seems unfazed by the weakness in NZD/USD, it is still worth watching. This currency pair has done a decent job indicating recent turning points in the market.


One stock I don't think I've mentioned before is Bunge. This has made a flag pattern recently. You can make of the pattern what you will:


BTJ has been a recent high-flier that might make a good short candidate:


CRS had a nice breakout a few weeks ago, but this breakout seems to be losing steam in a big hurry. Failed breakouts make great shorts.

hefeiddd

1111111111111

hefeiddd

CRS had a nice breakout a few weeks ago, but this breakout seems to be losing steam in a big hurry. Failed breakouts make great shorts.


Much of the housing sector - - lenders such as AHC as well as builders like BZH - had a nice bounce higher today. I took it as a good opportunity to enter some shorts of stocks that were retracing their head and shoulders pattern to the neckline, such as ESS, shown here.


Honeywell (HON) is starting to lose ground.


....as is Microsoft (MSFT)...

hefeiddd

111111111111111111111111111