一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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And the S&P 500, which had been floating above its channel for a while now, has now achieved - if you will - double penetration. The index is within the bounds of its channel once more. Which only means it is at the very highest reaches of its channel, with ample more room to fall.


And, not surprisingly, the $VIX has been zooming higher lately. Even at these levels, we are far, far below historical averages. During saner times, the $VIX would occasionally push above 50.


ALB, which I've been short for a while, has now completed its pattern. Huzzah!


Oh, remember back on May 22nd that I suggested BTJ as a short? I've marked it with an arrow here. How's that for a call, folks? I (stupidly) closed it out a couple of days ago for a nice profit, but, again, it was just stupid. There was no solid reason to cover the position.


CAM is another one dozens of great short/put candidates.

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CAM is another one dozens of great short/put candidates.


And the DIA is a great general way to play the market downturn via puts. This is a gorgeous chart. Stop price of 134.76 on this one, if memory serves.


My puts on GOOG are doing well. This is a failed breakout pattern. For such an expensive stock, there is nothing sweeter.


I'm avoiding real estate shorts, pretty much (I've got one or two). Looking at IYR, it is approaching a supporting trendline. Of course, if you read about the billions upon billions of dollars in mortgages that are about to explode, it could be that the real estate downfall has only just started trickling in.

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I'm avoiding real estate shorts, pretty much (I've got one or two). Looking at IYR, it is approaching a supporting trendline. Of course, if you read about the billions upon billions of dollars in mortgages that are about to explode, it could be that the real estate downfall has only just started trickling in.


My JCP puts are doing well, although his pattern is not complete yet. But it has a very good shot of doing so.


Check out Sears Holding (SHLD). It has crossed its 20, 50, and 200 day moving averages! Now the fun can really begin.


And for all those who used me as a contrary indicator........keep holding those positions, boys. I'm sure you're right and they'll be back in the black in no time. In fact, double up. You know I'm wrong.

XTC........


at 6/12/2007 54 insightful comments
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Labels: $spx, $vix, abby joseph cohen, btj, cam, dia, goog, iyr, jcp, positions, shld


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Monday, June 11, 2007Short the iPhone (and everything else.....)
Let me save the bulls some time and say two things: first, I am jumping-up-and-down, wild-eyed, chart-crazed bearish right now. So if you want to take that as a marvelous contrary indicator, please do so. Second, I've even done some legwork for you. The call option on the S&P 500 for July at $1,625 (which, gosh, should be easy - that's only 7.5% higher than the current market) is a mere 40 cents asking price! The symbol is SPB-GE. Go nuts.



Now, as you can see from the graph below, Apple's stock did pretty good after the introduction, but it faded back again, and it sank to even lower lows. The stock got down to something like $6.50 (don't you wish that time machine was handy, folks?) So the iPod clearly wasn't seen as any kind of savior for the company, nor was it the object of frenetic optimism.


So what happened next? Well, the Apple magic started to work. The brilliance of offering an accessible way to purchase music, great software to manage your music collection, and an elegant, highly mobile piece of hardware started to take hold. And Apple's stock moved up not hundreds of percent, but thousands of percent. The iPod made Apple more successful (and the stock more expensive) than ever.


Which brings us to today. Apple is deep into triple-digit territory. Steve Jobs would probably win the presidency of the U.S. if he ran. And there are thousands of Apple zillionaires running around Cupertino. The company seems like it can do no wrong. I notice even put Apple right on its front cover last week.

I took all this into account. And although I rarely depart from charts as my rationale for decision-making, I bought a bunch of Apple puts early this morning. And, as the market closed today, those puts were already up 35%. Not bad.

Now, it's not that anything horrible was announced from Apple today. Steve Jobs gave a talk at the WWDC, and everything seems pretty hunky dory. But if I can smell a top, folks, this is it. And I'm not predicting Apple will wind up like a completely devastated shell like, oh, Sun Microsystems. But if the contrary workings of hype have any merit, this has got to be one of the all-time great hype fades of modern history.


Phew. OK. Back to the markets. As I said earlier, I'm more bearish than normal. Which is saying something. Part of the reason is that, viewing the $SPX minute graph, I sense a sea-change has taken place in the trend. I've drawn it below.

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Phew. OK. Back to the markets. As I said earlier, I'm more bearish than normal. Which is saying something. Part of the reason is that, viewing the $SPX minute graph, I sense a sea-change has taken place in the trend. I've drawn it below.


I have acquired an ungodly quantity of Russell 2000 puts, predicated on the notion that the channel, drawn below, will likely be broken. And the beauty part is that if I'm wrong, I'll know swiftly, and my losses will be manageable.


I look at a chart of the $INDU below and get so excited I must excuse myself from standing for fear of embarrassing both myself and those around me. (In addition to generating pangs of jealousy amongst my bullish readers). To me, this is a chart jumping up and down, shouting "Top!" with great gusto.


Reducing the granularity of the chart to a weekly from a daily, we can plainly see the bearish engulfing pattern which took place last week. This week - Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, to be specific - is loaded with important economic indicators. Here's hoping they shove the markets lower and help increase the minuscule bits of angst floating about into

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Reducing the granularity of the chart to a weekly from a daily, we can plainly see the bearish engulfing pattern which took place last week. This week - Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, to be specific - is loaded with important economic indicators. Here's hoping they shove the markets lower and help increase the minuscule bits of angst floating about into a growing sense of dread.


The S&P 500 weekly offers, to my eyes, similar conclusions.


Let's look at a handful of individual stocks. I'm going to get into a short position with Amazon (AMZN) tomorrow morning.


CAH, offered by a thoughtful reader, also looks like a sharp short

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CAH, offered by a thoughtful reader, also looks like a sharp short.


As does CEG, also offered by a kind reader (and I do appreciate those emails and charts, folks).


Let's pause another moment and consider CROX. Let me say right now I am not short this stock, and I don't plan to be short this stock. I nibbled on some puts a couple of weeks ago, and I was promptly stopped out. I've learned my lesson. This is a momentum play, pure and simple. and I shriek like a little girl when I see this chart. No touchee.


We can compare CROX to a similar stock from many moons ago called Taser (TASR). Here's what TASR was doing back in the day. Check out the similarities of both price and volume action.

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We can compare CROX to a similar stock from many moons ago called Taser (TASR). Here's what TASR was doing back in the day. Check out the similarities of both price and volume action.


What happend to Taser after it peaked? Well, you already know that answer, don't you? Here's a percentage graph. Will CROX suffer a similar fate some day? I bet it will. I really doubt you can ply an ongoing competitive advantage off some cheap-looking fad-driven "shoes." But I, for one, am not going to guess when the momentum is going to run out. No thanks.


OK, back to shorts. Entergy (ETR) is a good idea to consider. And remember, folks, these are just ideas. Read the top of the screen. None of this is advice. I'm just spoutin' my feelings and notions. So settle down.


I mentioned GOOG as a long idea. Ya know what, I've changed my mind. I think I might buy some puts on this one, mostly for the same reasons as Apple, although not nearly to the same extent. I see a failed breakout happening here. Maybe.

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I mentioned GOOG as a long idea. Ya know what, I've changed my mind. I think I might buy some puts on this one, mostly for the same reasons as Apple, although not nearly to the same extent. I see a failed breakout happening here. Maybe.


And if you think the energy/oil run has gone berserk, Exxon Mobil (XOM) presents a relatively low-risk to play this on the bearish side.


That's it for the day. If the week rolls in my favor, you can expect more videos and such. Until then, please think about what I've said above. I'm right from time to time.
at 6/11/2007 54 insightful comments
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Labels: aapl, amzn, cah, ceg, cpt etr, crox, goog, iphone, tasr, xom

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Friday, June 08, 2007Nice
After Thursday's big drop, I speculated that today we would see a short, sharp drop followed by a big rally. Well, even I can get it right every now and then. That is precisely, 100%, what happened.

I think there's a decent chance, however, that we may have moved into a new phase of this market. Maybe that is just wishful thinking. But I don't think today's big 150+ upside move on the Dow is the beginning of yet another assault onto new highs. Instead, I think it's just a pullback in what seems like could be a staircase down. We'll see.


One of the main reasons I thought we'd see a big move up today is because of the many instances of supporting trendlines around the closing levels of yesterday. This graph of the S&P 500 shows how the upper trendline of the (now broken) channel represented meaningful support for the index. Sure enough - boing! - it bounced right off of it. But I really think we're going to re-enter channel-land next week.


I tripped across Checkfree (CKFR) and got into a short position there. This is a honkin' big head and shoulders pattern, although as yet incomplete.


Goldman Sachs represents the kind of stock on which I'd like to own puts once the relief rally peters out (which could probably be about 30 minutes into Monday's session). I closed out the vast majority of my positions and am sitting on a ton of cash right