一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

hefeiddd

In a broad sense, I think things have changed. It's been horrible awaiting the change, but I think it is finally here. In the broadest view, I think we have witnessed the passing of the Mother of All Double Tops.


This is not to say I'm speculating on outright collapse from here. On the contrary, I think we're probably due for another bounce up. But - as with today's - I may well decide that the bounce has exhausted itself just a couple of hours into a single trading day. My portfolios are devoid of any index positions right now, and consist of carefully-selected equity shorts, equity puts, and a couple of longs (DXD and BBI).

If you're just dying for a bullish stock, AutoDesk (ADSK) looks interesting:


Real estate has been in a freefall for months. I was thinking it would stabilize. But we might be in for some more downside action. Apartment Investments (AIV) has an impressive head and shoulders pattern.


My short in BEAS had a good day. I've put the clearly defined support and resistance horizontal lines here.

hefeiddd

111111111111111111111111

hefeiddd

My short in BEAS had a good day. I've put the clearly defined support and resistance horizontal lines here.


Bear Stearns was the "culprit" behind today's fall. I've been mentioning this as a short (or put purchase) for a long time. You can plainly see how, after its fall from its ultimate high, it tried to retrace........but the jig is up, and it's been falling ever since.


Looking at a broader chart, you can see a major, major supporting trendline has been shattered.


Goldman Sachs - employer of the hottie pictured at the top of today's entry - is suffering as well, although not to the same degree. My puts in this are up, and there's plenty of downside left on the stock, tinted here.

hefeiddd

11111111111111111111111

hefeiddd

Goldman Sachs - employer of the hottie pictured at the top of today's entry - is suffering as well, although not to the same degree. My puts in this are up, and there's plenty of downside left on the stock, tinted here.


Another set of puts that's doing great is JC Penney (JCP). I've illustrated a potential target. Thank you, polyester! Thank you, leisure suits! Thank you, lawnmower care supplies!


Massey (MEE) is sporting a monstrous, gorgeous head and shoulders, and I think the retracement is complete now.


A bunch of people have written me asking to explain some options trading basics. I'll do it on a quieter day when the market is up half a point or something. I've had enough. I'm going for a swim........
at 6/25/2007 45 insightful comments
Links to this post
Labels: $rut, $spx, abby joseph cohen, adsk, aiv, beas, bsc, bxp, gs, jcp, mee



Ratatouille
Just a very quick early morning post to say that I've closed out all my index puts and have (on a smaller scale) gone long indexes for the time being. I think a bounce is in store, although whether the bounce lasts only an hour or two today or for a number of days in a row remains to be seen. Suffice it to say I'm pulling in my bear paws on indexes, although carefully-selected bearish stock positions remain in place with good stops. (Update: I actually 20 RUZ-GD at $25, sold them at $27.50 about an hour later, and went heavily short.......)

I have the good fortune of being related to an employee of Pixar, and as such, I get to see (with my family) their films in advance. Yesterday we went to the Pixar theatre and got to se

Believe me, it is their best yet. Even better than The Incredibles. If PIXR was still public (as opposed to being part of DIS), I'd say buy it. Even if you don't have kids, it's a fantastic film.

And thus ends today's movies section!




at 6/25/2007 46 insightful comments
Links to this post
Labels: Ratatouille



Newer Posts Older Posts Home

hefeiddd

1111111111111111111

hefeiddd

Friday, June 22, 2007Poetry in Motion
I've got a riddle for you.

What well-known Jewish personality made a bundle of money on Wall Street today and needs to have their back hair waxed? If your answer is Abby Joseph Cohen, you are technically correct, but the answer I was seeking was Stephen A. Schwarzman of Blackstone.

OK, here's the second part of the riddle (isn't this fun, kids?)

What percentage of public investors have profits on newly-minted Blackstone Group (BX) today, now that the trading day is through? The answer: basically zero. Oh, I'm not talking about the midget founder of the place. He's doing just fine with his billions, thanks for asking.

I'm talking about the poor schlubs who thought they could get inside the club by buying into this stock. Virtually every single share bought is in a losing position. Nice going, folks.


Yesterday, if you'll recall, I wrote:

But tomorrow is - at last - the big day. That's right - it's Blackstone day. Apparently the demand for shares in BX is about seven-fold oversubscribed. Nothing would be more poetic than the market taking a fall tomorrow.

Well. Down 189 more points. Nice.

I actually had a great day, making money both on the short side and - for the brief bounce of the day - on the long as well. I remain cautious and humble in the face of a massively moronic and gullible public that could be coaxed into buying again. Thus I tighten my stops every day.


The Russell has been stronger (relatively) than I'd like to see. But it remains attractive to me largely due to its reasonable bid/ask spread on the options. I remain dumbfounded at the complete rip-off represented by the S&P 500 options market. It's just criminal.


Oh, speaking of the S&P - - - in spite of the recent fall in equities, we remain absolutely sky-high. Dare I even say grotesquely overvalued. Oh, well. It'll take years to sort out. Long story short, don't be fooled with the tiny inching down we've been doing. It's nothing compared to the radical overvaluation

hefeiddd

111111111111111111111

hefeiddd

still present. Trillions of dollars of equity need to be destroyed before we are at interesting values again. Whether the top has passed it totally unknown. And it doesn't matter to me, as long as I manage and maintain these stops responsibly.


Symbol ALB bounced up to a perfect retracement, thus permitting me to re-enter the position which I closed profitably just a couple of days ago.


Symbol CAH isn't doing badly for me either. I own puts on this.


Although Cigna (CI) is too big to simply collapse, it's got a cute little H and S pattern whose neckline was broken today.

hefeiddd

1111111111111

hefeiddd

Although Cigna (CI) is too big to simply collapse, it's got a cute little H and S pattern whose neckline was broken today.


A new short I think I'll enter next week is - again - Malaysia (EWM).


I've got to hand it to Google (on which I have not had a position in a while) - - they seem to be doing everything right. This is a gorgeous bullish pattern - just beautiful - particularly in light of today's market action. Poor old Yahoo is just a mess. Why anyone ever used Yahoo in the first place - - I thought they sucked in 1996 when I first tried them - - is beyond me.


Goldman Sachs (GS) suffered some today, so my puts prospered. This isn't a big fall by any stretch. I guess maybe the lame-o BX reaction hurt them? I don't know.

hefeiddd

111111111111111111

hefeiddd

Goldman Sachs (GS) suffered some today, so my puts prospered. This isn't a big fall by any stretch. I guess maybe the lame-o BX reaction hurt them? I don't know.


I continue to hold my JC Penney (JCP) puts, which push a little higher into the green each day. This is a dynamite pattern. Never has polyester clothing been so good to me!


I haven't shown Meritage (MTH) in a long time, but I just want to use this to illustrate the kind of slow grinding death equities can go through. I think this is a good proxy for just about the entire stock market, although housing got a head start on the rest of us.


It's been a good week. Particularly since the detractors are too sheepish to show their faces around here during down days. So let's celebrate:



at 6/22/2007 59 insightful comments
Links to this post
Labels: $indu, $rut, $spx, abby joseph cohen, alb, blackstone, bxp, cah, ci, ewm, goog, gs, jcp, mth

hefeiddd

111111111111111111111

hefeiddd

Thursday, June 21, 2007Yeah, We Do.........
I've been mixed up with computers a long time - - since 1979, actually. And I've been involved in electronic communities since 1981. Yes, you read right. I've been doing this a while. And I've learned a few things along the way.

One thing I've learned is that there tends to be an inverse correlation between how a person presents themselves (when they can hide behind a facade) and how they really are. This applies particularly to personal appearance. A shining example of this appeared in last Sunday's New York Times, which profiled a number of serious electronic gamers with their avatars. Here's a particularly painful, poignant example:


So the enormous mass of protoplasm on the left is the human. And the svelte, strong, serious warrior on the right is his representation of himself in the virtual world of Everquest.

Now, if you read this blog at all regularly, you really have no reason not to do the free sign-up for BlogLog, since it's a kick to see who your fellow readers are (savvy, witty folks, by and large; with at least enough good sense to swing by here once a day). But I am highly confident that no one reading my blog looks like this.


My caution yesterday was very well founded. In fact, it was spot-on. The market opened. It farted around a bit, then it fell hard. And I closed out my DIA and RUT puts at huge profits.

Then I bought calls. But........because I'm an idiot......I sold them shortly thereafter for breakeven. Then they spent the day going up 20%, so that was about $8,000 down the toilet. Like I said: an idiot.


But tomorrow is - at last - the big day. That's right - it's Blackstone day. Apparently the demand for shares in BX is about seven-fold oversubscribed. Nothing would be more poetic than the market taking a fall tomorrow. As for BX, I guess it's almost certainly going to close well above its offering price. I guess. But there's something about this offering that I think is rather pivotal in the world of investor psychology.

Anyhoo, my intuition is that tomorrow is that we're going to resume the fall. Perhaps even taking out Wednesday's lows.


One of my favorite real estate shorts now is Kilroy (KRC). If this stock can break its neckline, this is a honey of a pattern. Quite large.


If the market is on the weak side after the opening bell tomorrow, I think some 3M (MMM) puts are probably one of the best places to take advantage of any downside action.

hefeiddd

Thursday, June 21, 2007Yeah, We Do.........
I've been mixed up with computers a long time - - since 1979, actually. And I've been involved in electronic communities since 1981. Yes, you read right. I've been doing this a while. And I've learned a few things along the way.

One thing I've learned is that there tends to be an inverse correlation between how a person presents themselves (when they can hide behind a facade) and how they really are. This applies particularly to personal appearance. A shining example of this appeared in last Sunday's New York Times, which profiled a number of serious electronic gamers with their avatars. Here's a particularly painful, poignant example:


So the enormous mass of protoplasm on the left is the human. And the svelte, strong, serious warrior on the right is his representation of himself in the virtual world of Everquest.




was very well founded. In fact, it was spot-on. The market opened. It farted around a bit, then it fell hard. And I closed out my DIA and RUT puts at huge profits.

Then I bought calls. But........because I'm an idiot......I sold them shortly thereafter for breakeven. Then they spent the day going up 20%, so that was about $8,000 down the toilet. Like I said: an idiot.


But tomorrow is - at last - the big day. That's right - it's Blackstone day. Apparently the demand for shares in BX is about  Nothing would be more poetic than the market taking a fall tomorrow. As for BX, I guess it's almost certainly going to close well above its offering price. I guess. But there's something about this offering that I think is rather pivotal in the world of investor psychology.

Anyhoo, my intuition is that tomorrow is that we're going to resume the fall. Perhaps even taking out Wednesday's lows.


One of my favorite real estate shorts now is Kilroy (KRC). If this stock can break its neckline, this is a honey of a pattern. Quite large.


If the market is on the weak side after the opening bell tomorrow, I think some 3M (MMM) puts are probably one of the best places to take advantage of any downside action.

hefeiddd

1111111111111

hefeiddd

If the market is on the weak side after the opening bell tomorrow, I think some 3M (MMM) puts are probably one of the best places to take advantage of any downside action.


I've mentioned Micron (MU) as a long a number of times. This is a great little pattern, with a volume swell to boot.


It's been quite a week. Let's see how Blackstone day treats us. See you after the close. Oh, and this is me. For real.


at 6/21/2007 54 insightful comments
Links to this post
Labels: blackstone, krc, mmm, mu

hefeiddd

111111111111111

hefeiddd

Wednesday, June 20, 2007Do We HAVE to Have a Bounce?
I started the day off, before the opening bell, feeling very discouraged. The market seemed inclined to stay at - to borrow from Irving Fisher - a "permanently high plateau". Today provided a welcome respite, with interest rates gutting the Dow for 146 points.

But surely you've seen a change in my temperment. Whereas typically I would be tooting the celebratory horns at such a thing, all I can think now is, "Great, we'll just go into another bounce now." And, perhaps, in my own twisted way, that's actually a really bearish sign. Because when I was feeling balls-out, it's the end of the world, the market invariably pushed higher. I regard these recent jolts downward not with glee, but with dire suspicion, bordering on a sense of dread.

Not to say that, from a chartist's viewpoint, the indexes (and carefully chosen stocks) don't look terrific for the bears. The S&P 500 looks gorgeous.


And yet, as I look at the minute bars of the same index over the past 60 days, unless the lows of last Thursday, June 7th, are taken out we're going to continue to stay stuck in this f*cking grind upward. If there is, in fact, a loving God, and we blow out the lows of June 7th, then it's time to rock. But I'm a doubter until it happens.


Another reason for my skepticism is that whenever the VIX goes rip-roaring higher, it is prone to ease back down (lately, at least). You can see the general range I've highlighted below. We're a bit above it.


Apple (AAPL), on which I own a small put position, edged down both yesterday and today. Next Friday is when the JesusPhone gets introduced. Obviously it will be fascinating on the 29th to see what happens to the stock. To say this product is widely anticipated is a gross understatement.