一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

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I got into a short position with BEAS today, and it's a bit in the green already, in spite of the market's strength. The right shoulder of this pattern is half completed.


I shorted BTJ successfully a couple of weeks ago. It has bounced high enough for me to be comfortable re-entering this short.


Cardinal Health (CAH), a short I got into a couple of days back, is doing pretty well. It is encouraging to see stocks act weak when the market as a whole is very strong.


Constellation (CEG) has a medium term downtrend that is intact so far.

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Constellation (CEG) has a medium term downtrend that is intact so far.


One highly liquid, low-risk short (or put purchase) are the Diamonds (DIA). A clean stop here would be 136.84


Now that Goldman's earnings are out, I think the risk is much lower to short this stock. The blow-out earnings yesterday actually caused the stock to declined, and it seems toppy enough to me - and far enough away from the trendline - to warrant another attempt.


I first mentioned CRDN as a longSince that time, it has push much higher on very strong volume. I guess the war in Iraq is actually good for this firm.

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I first mentioned CRDN as a long Since that time, it has push much higher on very strong volume. I guess the war in Iraq is actually good for this firm.


McGraw-Hill (MHP) is a new short for me, entered yesterday.


I added to my MMM puts today, based on the big rebound in the Dow. It closed the day with a nice shooting star pattern and without penetrating its prior high.


I also bought puts on another megacap stock, AT&T (T).

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I also bought puts on another megacap stock, AT&T (T).


The rails were very strong a couple of months back due to Warren Buffett's investments there. I think it's time to sell into this strength. I sold short a block of Union Pacific (UNP) today.


at 6/15/2007 59 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $rut, acl, beas, btj, cah, ceg, crdn, dia, gs, mhp, mmm, unp


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Thursday, June 14, 2007Nattering Nabobs
It's a pretty predictable trend. It the market goes down hard, the comments section is filled with kudos, praise, and huzzahs. And if the market goes up big, the comments section is filled with barbs, told-ya-so's, and permabulls. Either way, it's pretty tedious.

As I've said many times, this blog's purpose is for one person - me - to share his thoughts about the market via some charts. Nothing more. You can get ideas from it. You can take those ideas and turn them upside down (short everything I buy and buy everything I short). It's really up to you. All I hope for in the comments section is a place for other people to offer other ideas. Because there's plenty of interesting opinions out there.

Today, like yesterday, was another "up" day (although not nearly as dramatically). That's fine by me. Now, if tomorrow is up too, I'm going to start to worry. A healthy snap-back rally is terrific in the scheme of establishing lower highs and lower lows. But a continuous push higher can result in what we saw back in early March, where the allure of a drop was squashed and the market simply sashayed its way on to new lifetime highs. My view of the S&P 500 right now is along these lines:


I've got some puts on the DIA with a contingent stop at 136.16.


Symbol CEG has a nice series of lower lows/lower highs. I'm short.


Malaysia (EWM), mentioned here before, continues to look toppy in spite of recent strength in Asia.

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Malaysia (EWM), mentioned here before, continues to look toppy in spite of recent strength in Asia.


I mentioned Goldman Sachs (GS) before. It had pushed its way to a new high yesterday, but once earnings were released, the stock fell on the news. It's not that the earnings were bad - on the contrary, they blew away expectations. But "buy the rumor, sell the news" is as true now as ever.


My puts in JC Penney (JCP) continue to do well, although nothing really great is going to happen unless/until the neckline shown on the pattern breaks. But it could be soon.


Gary mentioned my "bearish" energy suggestions; not at all. I think in passing I mentioned CVX and/or XOM for those who considered energy overbought. But I've devoted whole entries recently (such as "Sheer Energy") to the fact that this is the one sector that looks really bullish. The new high on the OIH today is no surprised, nor is the strength of such stocks as APA, SLB, and SWN.

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Gary mentioned my "bearish" energy suggestions; not at all. I think in passing I mentioned CVX and/or XOM for those who considered energy overbought. But I've devoted whole entries recently (such as "Sheer Energy") to the fact that this is the one sector that looks really bullish. The new high on the OIH today is no surprised, nor is the strength of such stocks as APA, SLB, and SWN.


PEG is another promising-looking stock to short, similar to CEG's pattern.


Finally, your clip of the day. This beautifully captures how I've been feeling about the comments section (especially the TTT situation). There comes a point when I just want to jump off the train.


at 6/14/2007 70 insightful comments
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Labels: ceg, dia, ewm, gs, jcp, oih, pee wee herman, peg

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Wednesday, June 13, 2007Snapback and Logo Vote
Today's snapback rally - the best day this year for the Dow, I read - is no surprise. In fact, it's a bit of a relief. A number of readers wrote me before the opening bell today and expressed their desire that the market would push higher to give them a good chance to sell into the strength. So - wish granted!

I wanted to ask your opinion about something. I wanted to doll up the blog a bit with a logo, and I've got four choices. Instead of just me picking my favorite, I'd love to hear your opinion. It won't take a moment....


The question on everyone's mind - mine included! - is whether the recent sell-off was just a bit of profit-taking in an otherwise uninterrupted bull market. Maybe. But a one-day rally isn't going to change my views. I closed out a handful of positions today, but by and large I am holding strong.


The Russell 2000 - which between puts on the $RUT and puts on the IWM seems to be the most tradeable index on the market - is at a crucial point. It pushed through the supporting trendline but is now within its channel again. The next two days are crucial. If the market pushes higher the rest of the week, a lot of my arguments over the past couple of days are kind of shot.


Apple, my "short it!!" topic earlier this week, fell nicely today in spite of the overall market roaring higher. That is a very, very good sign. My puts are up 75%.


A few reiterations of earlier bullish suggestions that still look good. JetBlue (JBLU):

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A few reiterations of earlier bullish suggestions that still look good. JetBlue (JBLU):


ONT, with a stop at $2.56:


And Southwestern (SWN):


Side note to Timothy Sykes - thanks for the book. I'm flattered, and I'll check it out!
at 6/13/2007 45 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $rut, aapl

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Tuesday, June 12, 2007...And an Awful Lot Like Me.....
First off, if you didn't get around to reading you should. It rules.

The trend change that I have been hoping, praying, and wishing for might (I say MIGHT) be here. Whether it is or not, the past week or so has been very good to me. Successful trading comes with its  but I'm enjoying myself. Watching the Dow go from a 90 point deficit to a 20 point surplus today, I had the sense that it was time to get more puts. And that was the right move. Lower lows and lower highs seems to be the rule of the day.


The "culprit" of all this wonderfulness is soaring interest rates. One reader (who shall remain nameless but I shall refer to as SuperCOT COTLover) opined that interest rates aren't going to go up forever. Well, ummm, that's right. But they weren't going to go down forever either. Believe me, there's plenty more that can go wrong to help add fuel to this wonderful fire.


Someone else asked to see my positions. Anyone blinkered enough to spend time every day sharing his best charts and thoughts for no money is stupid enough to show all his positions too, so here goes (the bold items are puts; everything else is a short):


Remember that channel I mentioned yesterday for the Russell 2000? Well, it was cracked today. Good.


And the S&P 500, which had been floating above its channel for a while now, has now achieved - if you will - double penetration. The index is within the bounds of its channel once more. Which only means it is at the very highest reaches of its channel, with ample more room to fall.