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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-30 08:08 编辑 ]
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Tuesday, May 15, 2007Immune
I'm not afraid.
I used to be. I really did. It's hard not to be fearful when a market has completely lost its mind. It's hard not to be afraid when tens of millions of Chinese investors - not a one of which has any clue what he's doing - are running around predicting their market will reach 8,000 now that it's reached 4,000. And it's hard not to be afraid when it seems the whole world has discovered how to print trillions of dollars (without inflation) that they want to dedicate solely to buying up companies.
But I'm not afraid.
A day like today is why. Because the Dow can reach yet another all-time high, and my portfolio.......which is 100%, All-American, red-blooded shorts and puts......goes up handsomely. And I can grab my XXL codpiece, stare the market right in the eye, and shout an obscenity which rhymes with "Truck Blue!".
Because the fact is, folks, if I can make money in a market like this, God help you bulls when it actually goes down. Because your days are numbered.
I find the Chinese prediction of 8,000 on the Shanghai index particularly amusing. I know that 8 is considered a lucky number in China. So - naturally - there's no reason the market won't zoom to 8,000, is there? Added to which, I read that many investors there decide that a share of stock is a good buy if it costs less than a portion of pork meat.
Idiots.
I've decided if my loyal readers and I decide to seek haven in a safe zone, we shall flee to the district in Russia. Their flag, my hand to God, looks like this:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkofDrbKiVI/AAAAAAAACf0/XCkdXfFGOWw/s400/0515-%24bearflag.jpg
A bear carrying an axe. We, my friends, have found our homeland.
Speaking of homes, the widely-reported slump in housing has not hit my beloved Palo Alto. On the contrary, prices have never been higher. Just a few doors down from my house is the following charmer. It features no landscaping. 950 square feet of living spaces. And sixty year old plumbing. It can be yours for $2 million. (Actually, I'm joking about that - - because it was snapped up a few days after they put a sign out in front, and it can, in fact, not be yours at this time).
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkofD7bKiWI/AAAAAAAACf8/qBLiz0VFZfU/s400/0515-%24fife.jpg
The Dow Jones 30 - which is far and away where all the strength is these days - tried very hard to push its way up to the 13,500 mark. After ascending nearly 150 points, it went completely flaccid, and it wound up 37, creating this lovely shooting star.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkofELbKiXI/AAAAAAAACgE/ODytdfXwZ-8/s400/0515-%24indu.jpg
Here's an update on my positions (newbies - click any image for a bigger version). Bold items are puts. Others are shorts. Not a long in the group (although I will mention that my long suggestion of ONT continues to explode higher).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkofELbKiYI/AAAAAAAACgM/K8Qz6JI93Ng/s400/0515-%24positions.jpg
My short in Akamai (AKAM) did great today, and what is more important, it is set up for a spectacular fall from here.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkofEbbKiZI/AAAAAAAACgU/nGR5j1Ozg4k/s400/0515-akam.jpg
Acuity Brands (AYI) also has a hell of a lot of open air to collapse.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkoe1rbKiQI/AAAAAAAACfM/cNslTxfL_Dk/s400/0515-ayi.jpg
AutoZone (AZO) finally - FINALLY! - took a tumble. Much more to come, I think.
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AutoZone (AZO) finally - FINALLY! - took a tumble. Much more to come, I think.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkoe2LbKiRI/AAAAAAAACfU/9M_ubAUE8Xg/s400/0515-azo.jpg
My puts in Bear Stearns also performed nicely.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkoe2bbKiSI/AAAAAAAACfc/S3BXo2EEj_0/s400/0515-bsc.jpg
Merrill Lynch is starting to deteriorate, now that it has made a base camp for itself at this key Fibonacci retracement level.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkoe2bbKiTI/AAAAAAAACfk/dthF3unbffQ/s400/0515-mer.jpg
Lastly, the NASDAQ QQQQs slumped badly, just as my beloved Russell 2000 did.
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http://photo.ce.cn/main/jrkd/200704/20/W020070420358574777273.jpg
Lastly, the NASDAQ QQQQs slumped badly, just as my beloved Russell 2000 did.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkoe2rbKiUI/AAAAAAAACfs/N70XrEa5m-c/s400/0515-qqqq.jpg
So in spite of calming inflation news (ummm, fellers, how much good is a .25% interest cut going to do you when the economy is irrevocably crumbling?) it was a terrific day. Let's have more of the same.
I'm not afraid!
at 5/15/2007 37 insightful comments
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Labels: akam, ayi, azo, bsc, mer, qqqq
Monday, May 14, 2007'Til Tuesday
It's really simple.
Tomorrow morning, the CPI will be released. The market will react. If it reacts poorly (which means down, which is a good thing), it's party time. If it finds the report vigorous and exciting for some reason, that's a bad thing for us. Because, simply stated, today made a lot of sense to me, virtually all my positions went up, and all my charts are positioned for juicy profits tomorrow. But a perverse reaction to the CPI could muck that all up in no time.
I said last week that Massey Energy (MEE) was looking like a good short, given its head and shoulders pattern. One person wrote in that evening's comments section.....
I'd stay away from shorting MEE... One of these Merger Monday's it's name is going to be on the "acquired list" and that's going to suck for anyone short it. Crappy management, but great reserves, and the coal bidness ain't going anywhere soon....
Well, the stock took a big fall today, and based on this pattern, there could be plenty more room to fall.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkjl47bKiMI/AAAAAAAACes/Zo9KkDFlzvw/s400/0514-%24mee.jpg
Indeed, some of the put options on this went up literally thousands of percent. Not bad!
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkjl47bKiNI/AAAAAAAACe0/x8_PIp6jF94/s400/0514-%24meeoptions.jpg
On a more bullish note, another stock I've been mentioning as a beautiful buy is ONT, and it continues to do terrific. Check out the strength of that volume!
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkjl5LbKiOI/AAAAAAAACe8/liWE8iFtwmo/s400/0514-%24ont.jpg
Because the market is so complacent right now, many puts are being sold on the cheap. Check out this chain from earlier today for MMM. Just look at the October put. For 63 cents (if you strip out the intrinsic value)......63 cents per share!......you get the right to sell the stock at a fixed price of $95 any time between now and October. Even more interesting is the fact that time premium is just about zilch.....July is the same as June....is the same as October! Incredible.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkjl4rbKiLI/AAAAAAAACek/eWaCGPtvhHU/s400/0514-%24putscheap.jpg
The Major Market Index ($XMI) does a nice job of showing where this market stands. If - - and I say if - - the market even freaks out a little at the morning's CPI, tomorrow is going to be a fantastic today. Today was really good, only because I was running around buying puts when the Dow was up 50 and everything else was basically stalled. I knew it wouldn't last.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-1 12:24 编辑 ]
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The Major Market Index ($XMI) does a nice job of showing where this market stands. If - - and I say if - - the market even freaks out a little at the morning's CPI, tomorrow is going to be a fantastic today. Today was really good, only because I was running around buying puts when the Dow was up 50 and everything else was basically stalled. I knew it wouldn't last.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkjl5LbKiPI/AAAAAAAACfE/1r-DNbL6XCE/s400/0514-%24xmi.jpg
I've got to blast off to a meeting, so I'm just going to throw you raw symbols now, all of which I have either puts on or I am already short. Here we go.....AKAM:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkjlebbKiGI/AAAAAAAACd8/ZH-GeZJfyHY/s400/0514-akam.jpg
BEN:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkjlerbKiHI/AAAAAAAACeE/MsUyi9gk3mA/s400/0514-ben.jpg
CROX (can you say fad?!!?!):
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CROX (can you say fad?!!?!):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkjle7bKiII/AAAAAAAACeM/uy3dw4-z9XU/s400/0514-crox.jpg
CRR:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkjle7bKiJI/AAAAAAAACeU/Z3ex2aHq-aE/s400/0514-crr.jpg
DE:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkjlfLbKiKI/AAAAAAAACec/ElndLC3sV9g/s400/0514-de.jpg
EWM:
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EWM:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkjkerbKiBI/AAAAAAAACdU/L8rZBFBBGAs/s400/0514-ewm.jpg
INFY:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkjke7bKiCI/AAAAAAAACdc/siPId27CUWQ/s400/0514-infy.jpg
MMM:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkjke7bKiDI/AAAAAAAACdk/2btE5m8bfjw/s400/0514-mmm.jpg
RIMM:
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RIMM:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkjkfLbKiEI/AAAAAAAACds/kqpCBAIOcu8/s400/0514-rimm.jpg
WHR:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkjkfbbKiFI/AAAAAAAACd0/oJQfYcM5mZo/s400/0514-whr.jpg
at 5/14/2007 16 insightful comments
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Labels: $xmi, akam, ben, crox, crr, de, ewm, infy, mee, mmm, ont, rimm, whr
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Friday, May 11, 2007Weekend Reading
Denied. Again.
Yes, as I mentioned yesterday, the risk of the markets bouncing off their trendline was definitely there. The inflation rate (once you take away such non-essential luxuries as food and fuel) was low, and more signs of a worsening economy (anemic retail sales) had the perverse effect of pushing the markets higher.
So today might have been a turning point, but it was example eight thousand and twelve of false hope (e.g. yesterday's short, sharp shock).
It's hard to tell which way is up anymore. You could look at the Russell right now (intraday graph) and make a good argument for yet another bounce which is just getting started.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkTfzrbKh_I/AAAAAAAACdE/iU0-6EpyO4w/s400/0511-%24rutbullish.jpg
Using the same graph, you could also show a very plausible dome, indicating a market topping. Search me. After 11 months of banging my head against a wall, I'm as open to suggestions as the next person.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkTf0LbKiAI/AAAAAAAACdM/9f8L6sbcx9s/s400/0511-%24rutbearish.jpg
I'm going to have a lazy day and offer you some good weekend reading. Most of these links came from thoughtful readers, whom I would like to thank. I always welcome interesting reading, so feel free to post links in the comments section as you come across it.
at 5/11/2007 53 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut
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