Let's take another, smaller example - Malaysia. This little country had a great run-up in their share prices.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkD07bbKhnI/AAAAAAAACaI/W3GRg5QQCYg/s400/0508-%24malaysiaup.jpg
But notice what happened after the melt-up. Things went to hell in a handbasket. (I sold short a bunch of EWM today, with a stop at 12.11).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkD07rbKhoI/AAAAAAAACaQ/epGeClgAvnA/s400/0508-%24malaysiabear.jpg
OK, back to the present. DRQ represents a potential buy. In this kind of market, I'm really reluctant to go long, but if you must, this is worth checking out.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkD07rbKhpI/AAAAAAAACaY/L6M6MMKTNzA/s400/0508-drqlong.jpg
I would say the same thing (with similar warnings) for former shining star JetBlue (JBLU), which seems to be in the process of forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, having suffered terribly over the past year.
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I would say the same thing (with similar warnings) for former shining star JetBlue (JBLU), which seems to be in the process of forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, having suffered terribly over the past year.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkD077bKhqI/AAAAAAAACag/wSY5T7ONB00/s400/0508-jblulong.jpg
Oh, and MicroStrategy (MSTR), mentioned on this page many times recently as a short candidate, finally paid the piper. I've marked the failed bullish breakout earlier this year which preceded this nasty tumble.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkD08LbKhrI/AAAAAAAACao/g72msYojfm4/s400/0508-mstr.jpg
Your video entertainment today combines two of my favorite cultural touchstones: Star Trek and Monty Python and the Holy Grail. The few moments with Captain Pike is alone worth your time.
at 5/08/2007 25 insightful comments
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Labels: drq, jblu, mstr, nikkei
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Monday, May 07, 2007The Pain Grows Stronger/Watch It Grin
Years ago I remember seeing a Dilbert cartoon where Dogbert had yet another get-rich-quick scheme. This one was a generic newspaper which featured headlines about "Unrest in Middle East" and "Government Proposes More Taxes". It was basically a newspaper you could read any day for the rest of your life, and it would always be true.
Much the same can be said of the market - at least in terms of the Dow 30. I'm starting to lose track. What would today make it......the last 27 out of 30 sessions up? Something like that. It's starting not to matter. As you can see from the graph below, it essentially never goes down.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rj-I0LbKhmI/AAAAAAAACaA/meibqRDODWg/s400/0507-%24indu.jpg
I am staying far away from SPX puts (or DIA puts, for that matter). The only index put I've been accumulating is on the Russell 2000. Earlier in this cycle, the Russell was strong than the Dow, but recently, it's been falling behind. It also has the added advantage of falling faster on the rare occasions when the market is weak (notice the recent dip, shown in blue).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rj-Ik7bKhhI/AAAAAAAACZY/1NEUr_YKNZk/s400/0507-%24rut.jpg
A closer look at recent activity illustrates the relative weakness better. Today the Dow was up yet another 50, whereas the Russell - a broader index - actually fell.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rj-IlLbKhiI/AAAAAAAACZg/dVwxv0XAcvU/s400/0507-%24rutrecentweakness.jpg
The NASDAQ Composite is also relatively low on steam compared with the mega-caps.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rj-IlLbKhjI/AAAAAAAACZo/6o83CIDMb_I/s400/0507-%24compq.jpg
And the $XMI is continuing the exhibit the rather fascinating "hug just beneath the broken trendline" phenomenon.
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-30 11:11 编辑 ]
And the $XMI is continuing the exhibit the rather fascinating "hug just beneath the broken trendline" phenomenon.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rj-IlbbKhkI/AAAAAAAACZw/UPZuKuJtSKA/s400/0507-%24xmi.jpg
I have no position in the CME, but it's interesting how this is shaping up recently. It's not really a head and shoulders pattern, but it definitely looks toppy.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rj-IlrbKhlI/AAAAAAAACZ4/StU4NPR1osA/s400/0507-cme.jpg
My puts on INFY did pretty well today. Infosys (INFY) fell on a good pick-up in volume.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rj-IV7bKhcI/AAAAAAAACYw/kyzEseVc8XM/s400/0507-infy.jpg
Symbol MEE is a pretty massive head and shoulders pattern, although frankly patterns this big don't have as much weight with me, since it has already kind of done the retracement-and-fall-again dance. But your eyes have every right to make an independent judgment.
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Symbol MEE is a pretty massive head and shoulders pattern, although frankly patterns this big don't have as much weight with me, since it has already kind of done the retracement-and-fall-again dance. But your eyes have every right to make an independent judgment.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rj-IWbbKhdI/AAAAAAAACY4/LTS0mBqp4Ew/s400/0507-mee.jpg
Symbol MS is doing the same shtick as $XMI.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rj-IWrbKheI/AAAAAAAACZA/DbcYNkyIylY/s400/0507-ms.jpg
Airline RYAAY finally took a tumble, losing about 20% of its value in the past week or so. It was really overheated earlier, and I don't see any clear pattern at this point.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rj-IXLbKhfI/AAAAAAAACZI/A9ncQAeLa8c/s400/0507-ryaay.jpg
Long suggestion SCHN continues to do well, although I'm sure the massive buyout news regarding AL/AA had everything to do with today's rise.
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Long suggestion SCHN continues to do well, although I'm sure the massive buyout news regarding AL/AA had everything to do with today's rise.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rj-IXbbKhgI/AAAAAAAACZQ/Iub8MVsLvTU/s400/0507-schnlong.jpg
at 5/07/2007 23 insightful comments
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Labels: bid, cme, infy, mee, msft, new highs, ryaay, schn
Friday, May 04, 2007Sigh....
OK, this up-every-day thing is getting realllllllly old.
I'm started to become disenchanted with the Russell 2000. I wasn't surprised at the recent recovery. In fact, I sold a huge block of puts just before the bounce higher started (thank God).
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPyLbKhaI/AAAAAAAACYg/Rn0iZUtRksM/s400/0504-%24rutintraday60.jpg
What bugs me is that the bounce-back pushed higher than the point I thought things would soften up again. The entire area I've shaded in green here (a closer view) is basically the "WTF???" zone. Particularly the strong finish during the last few minutes of today. Disgusting.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPybbKhbI/AAAAAAAACYo/5ltxgZqAi5w/s400/0504-%24rutintraday.jpg
The $XAU is sporting a handsome shooting star, and although I've had no position in this for a while, I picked up some puts on it today. Because of the behavior of the market these days, I've focused on deep in-the-money, far-out expiration puts. Low risk, low volatility (and consequently lower profits should a miracle occur and things actually start heading down one day).
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The $XAU is sporting a handsome shooting star, and although I've had no position in this for a while, I picked up some puts on it today. Because of the behavior of the market these days, I've focused on deep in-the-money, far-out expiration puts. Low risk, low volatility (and consequently lower profits should a miracle occur and things actually start heading down one day).
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPo7bKhVI/AAAAAAAACX4/XeEXZOWrGCk/s400/0504-%24xau.jpg
I mentioned CRDN yesterday as a possible long. The awaited breakout took place today, although on unspectacular volume.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPpLbKhWI/AAAAAAAACYA/jpkpBdxpvtI/s400/0504-crdnlong.jpg
ONT, mentioned many times here as a long, had a terrific day. The volume in the past few weeks is sensational.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPpLbKhXI/AAAAAAAACYI/87lrJ06QgwM/s400/0504-ontlong.jpg
Akamai (AKAM) might be pushing back to a neckline, but this isn't a perfect head and shoulder, so no position yet. The right shoulder is higher than the left, and I tend to be a purist about these things.
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Akamai (AKAM) might be pushing back to a neckline, but this isn't a perfect head and shoulder, so no position yet. The right shoulder is higher than the left, and I tend to be a purist about these things.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPpbbKhYI/AAAAAAAACYQ/OBm7lprflAM/s400/0504-akam.jpg
Jones Soda (JSDA) got whacked today. Even so, it has a nice little head and shoulders pattern, and this could have another $8 to $10 to drop (based on classic measurement techniques).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPpbbKhZI/AAAAAAAACYY/lyHArdXEM-4/s400/0504-jsda.jpg
The balance of today's offerings are basically "rollovers." That is, stocks I think have lost momentum and have a good chance of falling. They are......Caterpillar (CAT):
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPQ7bKhQI/AAAAAAAACXQ/rGOmFdV1_Ec/s400/0504-cat.jpg
Hess (HES):
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Hess (HES):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPRLbKhRI/AAAAAAAACXY/ZavrKKCSep4/s400/0504-hes.jpg
Noble Energy (NBL):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPRLbKhSI/AAAAAAAACXg/Wz8RmQ0wb84/s400/0504-nbl.jpg
Potash (POT):
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPRbbKhTI/AAAAAAAACXo/CQAc5JoQMPs/s400/0504-pot.jpg
PSB:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjvPR7bKhUI/AAAAAAAACXw/SpeRqg4RlCs/s400/0504-psb.jpg
I've had enough. Time to hang up the charts for the weekend.
at 5/04/2007 30 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut, $xau, akam, cat, crdn, hes, jsda, nbl, ont, pot, psb
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Thursday, May 03, 2007A Call For Bull Content
Over the past 25 trading sessions (March 29th through May 3rd), the Dow 30 closed up 22 times and down only 3 times. That means only about 12% of the time, we were down for the day. The net change was up 941 points.
During the 25 trading sessions prior to the above (February 22nd through March 28th), the Dow 30 closed up 12 times and down 13 times, meaning the Dow closed down 52% of the time. The net change was down 438 points. Quite a change, eh?
Given the above, you can imagine how the brawling in comments has been getting worse (and only God knows how bad it would be if anonymous people were still allowed to post). BackI asked all the bulls to make some recommendations. Only a couple of folks did. One of them had a bunch of options, which frankly I'm too lazy to look up, and another - listed a bunch of equity symbols.
I decided to do an experiment and entered a hypothetical portfolio of 100 shares of each of his recommendations, using a price of the opening on April 18th (the morning following his comment). In other words, I'm assuming you decided to buy, at the opening price, an equal number of shares of each of the stocks suggested (the weighting would vary quite a bit, obviously, since the share prices were so different). The symbols and their "entry" prices were:
DOW 45.29
EMC 15.12
GLW 23.40
GSK 58.4573
GS 213.75
GSF 62.31
INTC 21.35
MYL 21.60
MS 81.50
NDAQ 31.20
SMH 35.22
QCOM 43.19
QLD 85.85
By way of comparison, I decided to compare it to the Russell 2000. Over the period since Tom's suggestions, the Russell has moved up from 827.41 up to 828.87, which is a small change of 0.18%. Tom's suggestions were also up .18%, but with a 3 in front of the decimal point as well (e.g. 3.18%). So - - great work, Tom!
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpLs7bKhKI/AAAAAAAACWg/AiOEn2omqkQ/s400/0503-%24tomthetrader.jpg
Now, as regular readers know, we get our fair share of bulls in the comments section that yell and scream daily about how stupid bears are. That's fine. But what interests me is to find out how smart our bullish colleagues are. Specifically, I'd like to hear what they have to say (in a constructive sense).
So here's my offer - - anyone who has bullish recommendations, commentary, or market views, I'd like you to send them to email address (which you can find in my profile). I will print any specific suggestions or market analysis without comment or editing (except for spelling). Consider it an opportunity to demonstrate the market prowess which you possess.
The NASDAQ is threatening to push above its resistance line, similar to the fashion that the S&P 500 did a few days ago. If tomorrow opens higher, we can pretty much count on a new surge by the NASDAQ. It's all up to the employment report.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpMSbbKhLI/AAAAAAAACWo/Fz_56TtGmzQ/s400/0503-%24compq.jpg
The Russell 2000 is also threatening its stop-loss price of 835.17, which is its lifetime high.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpMSrbKhMI/AAAAAAAACWw/IJe1hOUgEOQ/s400/0503-%24rut.jpg
Notice how the S&P 500 is staying above its former resistance line. Even earlier this week, on the one day the market dipped lower, the S&P closed above this former resistance line.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RjpMS7bKhNI/AAAAAAAACW4/K5vcFeTacxI/s400/0503-%24spx.jpg
I shorted BID yesterday, and it fell nicely today.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-30 16:07 编辑 ]
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