The Major Market Index ($XMI) does a nice job of showing where this market stands. If - - and I say if - - the market even freaks out a little at the morning's CPI, tomorrow is going to be a fantastic today. Today was really good, only because I was running around buying puts when the Dow was up 50 and everything else was basically stalled. I knew it wouldn't last.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkjl5LbKiPI/AAAAAAAACfE/1r-DNbL6XCE/s400/0514-%24xmi.jpg
I've got to blast off to a meeting, so I'm just going to throw you raw symbols now, all of which I have either puts on or I am already short. Here we go.....AKAM:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkjlebbKiGI/AAAAAAAACd8/ZH-GeZJfyHY/s400/0514-akam.jpg
BEN:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkjlerbKiHI/AAAAAAAACeE/MsUyi9gk3mA/s400/0514-ben.jpg
CROX (can you say fad?!!?!):
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CROX (can you say fad?!!?!):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkjle7bKiII/AAAAAAAACeM/uy3dw4-z9XU/s400/0514-crox.jpg
CRR:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkjle7bKiJI/AAAAAAAACeU/Z3ex2aHq-aE/s400/0514-crr.jpg
DE:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkjlfLbKiKI/AAAAAAAACec/ElndLC3sV9g/s400/0514-de.jpg
EWM:
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EWM:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkjkerbKiBI/AAAAAAAACdU/L8rZBFBBGAs/s400/0514-ewm.jpg
INFY:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkjke7bKiCI/AAAAAAAACdc/siPId27CUWQ/s400/0514-infy.jpg
MMM:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/Rkjke7bKiDI/AAAAAAAACdk/2btE5m8bfjw/s400/0514-mmm.jpg
RIMM:
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RIMM:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkjkfLbKiEI/AAAAAAAACds/kqpCBAIOcu8/s400/0514-rimm.jpg
WHR:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkjkfbbKiFI/AAAAAAAACd0/oJQfYcM5mZo/s400/0514-whr.jpg
at 5/14/2007 16 insightful comments
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Labels: $xmi, akam, ben, crox, crr, de, ewm, infy, mee, mmm, ont, rimm, whr
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Friday, May 11, 2007Weekend Reading
Denied. Again.
Yes, as I mentioned yesterday, the risk of the markets bouncing off their trendline was definitely there. The inflation rate (once you take away such non-essential luxuries as food and fuel) was low, and more signs of a worsening economy (anemic retail sales) had the perverse effect of pushing the markets higher.
So today might have been a turning point, but it was example eight thousand and twelve of false hope (e.g. yesterday's short, sharp shock).
It's hard to tell which way is up anymore. You could look at the Russell right now (intraday graph) and make a good argument for yet another bounce which is just getting started.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkTfzrbKh_I/AAAAAAAACdE/iU0-6EpyO4w/s400/0511-%24rutbullish.jpg
Using the same graph, you could also show a very plausible dome, indicating a market topping. Search me. After 11 months of banging my head against a wall, I'm as open to suggestions as the next person.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkTf0LbKiAI/AAAAAAAACdM/9f8L6sbcx9s/s400/0511-%24rutbearish.jpg
I'm going to have a lazy day and offer you some good weekend reading. Most of these links came from thoughtful readers, whom I would like to thank. I always welcome interesting reading, so feel free to post links in the comments section as you come across it.
at 5/11/2007 53 insightful comments
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Labels: $rut
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Thursday, May 10, 2007This Sad Burlesque
Many years ago, when I worked at investment bank Montgomery Securities, there was this technical engineer named Bob that dealt with phones, computers, and communications equipment. Since I worked in a technical part of the company, we saw him quite a bit. My boss couldn't stand him, and he referred to him as "Bob from Hell" (since there was more than one Bob in the business, as you might guess).
The main reason for his distaste for Bob was that Bob always had some lame-ass answer why something wasn't working. One time took the cake, however. I was at a remote location, and we had set up some 14.4 modems (this was 16 years ago, remember). The connection was having serious trouble, and we asked Bob what the problem was. "Well, it's raining outside" - - he said this with a straight face. He was hoping, I suppose, that we would believe him and stop pestering him about the issue, since we couldn't do anything about the rain.
I was reminded of this today by the extremely weak retail sales figures that came out. Since the entire earth - and God knows, the financial media - is overrun by bulls, they had to come up with some lame-ass explanation. Their excuse? They took a page from the Book of Bob........
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkODW7bKh6I/AAAAAAAACcc/L4WA__dym54/s400/0510-%24rain.jpg
OK, different subject. Ken Fisher. Now, you've probably heard of Ken Fisher, since he advertises just about everywhere that there is financial information. He is a very well-known investment adviser whose company (cleverly named Fisher Investments) is just a few miles from where I'm sitting right now. His claim to fame is the column he writes on a regular basis for Forbes.
Now, let me preface this by saying that Mr. Fisher is a sharp fellow. His market observations are sensible and usually pan out quite well over time. However, he definitely has a lot more bull blood running through him than bear, and this can sometimes weigh heavily on how he views things.
Let me give you specifics. Take a look at the chart below, and take note of the seven numeric demarcations I've laid out.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkODW7bKh7I/AAAAAAAACck/t0z44zDNuUg/s400/0510-%24kenfisher.jpg
Now follow along with me, boys 'n' girls, as we read the essence of his market disposition during each of these seven instances. I have provided hyperlinks to each Forbes column.
What do we conclude? I dunno. Maybe that if a bear market does start, Ken will let us know about it a year or so later. Until then, it's buy, buy, buy.
Now, today was a good day.......down a meaty triple digits (for the first time in nearly two months - it's about f*cking time). But a concern I have going into tomorrow (which is a critical day, which both Retail and Inflation reports coming out an hour before the open) is the graph below. Will the $RUT bounce off the trendline I've drawn? Or break it? Those economic indicators will absolutely dictate that.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkODXLbKh9I/AAAAAAAACc0/fFJ_cRum184/s400/0510-%24ruttrendline.jpg
More than one person has scolded me for not showing some Fibonacci extensions on the markets. Well, let me give it a shot, although I'm not sure how helpful these are. First, here's the Dow 30. According to the extension displayed, we've got a ways to go - the next Fib level is at 14,563, well over 1,000 Dow points above the current level.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkODXbbKh-I/AAAAAAAACc8/x-79_0iixV8/s400/0510-%24dowextension.jpg
Yet if you look at the Russell 2000, we passed that extension a long time ago. I've shaded in the entire area above this extension. I can't really drawn any conclusions from this. I love Fibs for the "in between" bounces, but I'm not so sure how germane these extensions are for these markets.
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Yet if you look at the Russell 2000, we passed that extension a long time ago. I've shaded in the entire area above this extension. I can't really drawn any conclusions from this. I love Fibs for the "in between" bounces, but I'm not so sure how germane these extensions are for these markets.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkODG7bKh1I/AAAAAAAACb0/MSz8Q-8JevQ/s400/0510-%24rutextension.jpg
As for the NASDAQ, it obviously weakened substantially today, pushing away from that major resistance line.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkODHLbKh2I/AAAAAAAACb8/Tf7tLiY92_8/s400/0510-%24ndx.jpg
And the $SPX is still above its former resistance line, although technical indicators are definitely giving off sell signals.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkODHbbKh3I/AAAAAAAACcE/qy_ZiLgi9a8/s400/0510-%24spx.jpg
I don't typically follow DNDN, but this is a pretty fascinating graph. Just look at all the shares trading hands (on ungodly volume) - - first a massive gap up, then a massive gap down. Can you imagine the zillions of dollars of paper losses holders of this stock have due to that mania? I guess Jim Cramer was vindicated in the end.
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I don't typically follow DNDN, but this is a pretty fascinating graph. Just look at all the shares trading hands (on ungodly volume) - - first a massive gap up, then a massive gap down. Can you imagine the zillions of dollars of paper losses holders of this stock have due to that mania? I guess Jim Cramer was vindicated in the end.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkODHbbKh4I/AAAAAAAACcM/A2Rjtq69KTM/s400/0510-dndn.jpg
Finally, LGBT got walloped today. Again, I don't normally follow this stock, but the graph is cool. It's particularly unusual since its ticker symbol stands for Lesbian Gay Bisexual Transgender, surely the only ticker with such an interesting basis. I know nothing about the site itself, but maybe ericbolling or NewEquity can help us out.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkODHrbKh5I/AAAAAAAACcU/9ra9ogcssUQ/s400/0510-lgbt.jpg
Ladies and Gentlemen: the Blue Man Group:
at 5/10/2007 28 insightful comments
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Labels: $indu, $ndx, $rut, $spx, dndn, ken fisher, lgbt
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Wednesday, May 09, 2007Spasm
Today's post will be relatively lame, unlikeRead it if you haven't already.
In typical fashion, the market did a total spasm when the Fed did their announcement today. First the market fell hard. Then went up. Then fell down. then finally went up again, staying there, and closing up to yet another record high (rolling eyes).
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkIuyrbKhwI/AAAAAAAACbQ/1B15oWKEV-c/s400/0509-%24indu.jpg
There are a few interesting charts that are busting into new highs off of pretty bullish patterns. One of them is BBD.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkIuy7bKhxI/AAAAAAAACbY/C3Yjb6zGPbA/s400/0509-bbd.jpg
Another, with a similar pattern, is Carpenter (CRS):
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkIuzbbKh0I/AAAAAAAACbs/SlCRcSgOJYc/s400/0509-crs.jpg
I'm going to give Sotheby's (BID) another try on the short side.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkIuzLbKhyI/AAAAAAAACbg/fBURg2uUMPA/s400/0509-bid.jpg
The market's just going to keep rising until it stops, folks. Nothing more to it. It'll be interesting to see how Friday goes, since there are some key retail figures coming out.
at 5/09/2007 25 insightful comments
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Labels: bbd, bid, crs
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http://photo.ce.cn/main/jrkd/200704/20/W020070420358569732711.jpg
Tuesday, May 08, 2007I'm Turning Japanese
I bet you never thought you'd associatewith technical analysis, but check out their song "Patterns":
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkD1abbKhsI/AAAAAAAACaw/TcucaXmqqkw/s400/0508-%24downikkie.jpg
Let's back up some. Take a look at the Nikkei through the 1970s and 1980s. An amazing, incredible, "let's all learn to speak Japanese" (remember that?) kind of market. People were freaked out, and the Japanese were snapping up the Empire State Building, Pebble Beach, and everything else in sight.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkD1abbKhtI/AAAAAAAACa4/uGavY33j0Ms/s400/0508-%24niklongbullish.jpg
Looking closer, you can see that practically every day was an up day. Now let me ask you - - and I'm directing this at the bulls. Where was the warning sign? Where did it show a top was in place? How could you tell that this was the end? Imagine you were massively long this market. How would you know the party was over?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkD1arbKhuI/AAAAAAAACbA/MuuwWVklOMI/s400/0508-%24nikuprun.jpg
I don't need to tell you what happened next.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_DC_WvCGCWQ8/RkD1arbKhvI/AAAAAAAACbI/Ymq6Fen5SgU/s400/0508-%24nikbearmarket.jpg
Let's take another, smaller example - Malaysia. This little country had a great run-up in their share prices.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-5-1 12:23 编辑 ]
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