MARKETVIEWS INTERVIEW ARCHIVE
Henry Wernicki, Chief Editor and Publisher, Trading Amazing Elliott Wave Fractals
For more research/analysis by Henry Wernicki, andcontact information, please visit: http://www.elliottfractals.comor, email:
support@elliottfractals.com
11-27-05[*]7:00 PM PST Next: To be announced[*]Henry Wernicki, expects an explosive move in gold.Please click on the link to see the charts:http://www.elliottfractals.com/marketview_interview.htmlNeutral LISTENhttp://www.elliottfractals.com/speaker.gif
10-23-05[*]7:00 PM PST Next: To be announced[*]Henry Wernicki, talks about FNM, HUI, XAU, and the SPX.Neutral LISTENhttp://www.elliottfractals.com/speaker.gif
9-10-05[*] 7:00 PM PST Next: 10-11-05[*]Henry Wernicki remains on balance bullish.Bullish LISTENhttp://www.elliottfractals.com/speaker.gif
8-14-05[*]2:00 PM PST,Next: 9-13-05[*]Henry Wernicki talks about the increasing "non-linearity" nature of the financial markets, and the reasons why traditional technical analysis can no longer identify important turning points.Neutral LISTENhttp://www.elliottfractals.com/speaker.gif
7-18-05[*]2:00 PM PST,Next: 8-13-05[*]Henry Wernicki is bullish, and talks about Elliot Wave FractalsNeutral LISTENhttp://www.elliottfractals.com/speaker.gif
6-13-05[*]2:00 PM PST,Next: 6-13-05[*]Henry Wernicki is bullish, and talks about Elliot Wave FractalsBullish LISTEN
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MARKETVIEWS.TVInterview with Ike Iossif
By Alex Pappas
10/19/2007 10:00 AM PST
Q: Every February you publish an in-depthresearchpaper for gold/gold stocks featuring a) technical/fundamentalanalysis, b) specific probability scenarios forprice pattern/directional movement/price targets -as calculated by your proprietary models,c) the appropriatetrading strategies for each suggested outcome, and how they willbe implementedin your managedaccounts. (see reports for 2005-2006, and 2007-2008) The purpose of this interview is to review the 2007-2008 report, would you like to tell us where you stand at the present time?
A: Of course, the2007-2008 reportwas publishedon 2-16-07, it listedthreeoutcomes for the next twelve months -two bullish, and one bearish, andit was going to take untilJune to determine with some degree of certainty which one of the three outcomes -if any-was playing out. Bymid-May I advised that the evidence -up to that point in time- was strongly suggestingthatScenario#1 was going to unfold, and thus, going forward-unless new data suggested otherwise- S#1 would become the "working assumption"when decidingtradingstrategy for gold/gold stocks in our managed accounts. (see chart below, which is the forecast shown on the report, or, read 2007-2008 report)
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/other_extra/xauA.png
To determine if a particular scenario is "in play" we continuouslyexamine whether its three main forecasted attributes-pattern/magnitude/duration-match the actual ones.
In terms of "duration" the S#1 had forecasted a low in June, higher prices between mid-June and early-August, a top in early-August, lower prices between early August and early September, a low in early September, sharply higher prices from early September until late October, a top in late October, lower prices between late October and mid-November, a low in mid-November, and a verticalmove from mid-November until February of 2008. (see the small arrows on the right lower corner of the chart)
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/other_extra/xauB.png
In terms of "pattern"the S#1had forecastedan A-B-C-D-E-F type, in which eachsuccessive high, is higherthan the previous one, and also, each successive low, is higher than the previous one. (see thick blue line and red capital letters markinghighs/lows in the chart below.
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/other_extra/xauD.png
In terms of "magnitude" the S#1 had forecastedthe lowest low to be at 115 (+/-5 pts) at point "A" thena high at point "B" at 135 (+/-5 pts), a low at point "C" at 127 (+/-5 pts), a high at point "D" at 175 (+/-5 pts), a low at point "E" at 160 (+/-5pts), and a high at 210 (+/-5 pts)
TRADING STRATEGY BASED ON FORECAST BY S#1
Theforecasted patternby theS#1 -because of its successive higher lows- createsthreenatural low/risk entries at points "A" "C" and "E" Therefore, ourplan was to commit about 40%-50% of our capital at point "A"and then add another 25%-30% at points "C" and "E" which would have given us a fully invested position.
..............................................................................................................
ACTUAL PRICE ACTION
By mid-June the actual price action appeared not onlyto be unfoldingas it was forecasted by the S#1, but also it was doing it in a more bullish manner. The S#1 had estimated the June low to come at 115, it actually came20 points higher at 135. The XAU rallied into July as expected, and to our pleasant surprise, the actualJuly high came also 20 pointsabove the forecasted one. At that point, we had anotherconfirmation thatthe"pattern" and the "duration" of the actual movewere playing out as forecasted by the S#1, while thelows/highswere 20 points higher than forecasted, signifying"strength."
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/other_extra/xauh.png
At that point -as we indicated in ouremails to our clients- we were lookingfora pullback topoint "C" in early Augustto add on to our positions, as per the scenario thathad been unfolding. However,in early August all the marketstumbledsharply because of concerns aboutsub-prime defaults. The XAU instead of making a higher low, it made a lower low,violating the "higher highs/higher lows"attribute of the forecast, which in turn, negated the validity of the forecast, until such time that new datare- confirmed it.At that time, there was no way of telling whether the August lows signified an "aberration" and theprevious bullish patternpattern wouldre-emerge, or, the XAUhadentered a bearish phase.
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/other_extra/xauE.png
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/other_extra/xauD.png
So far it appears that theaction in August may had been an aberration caused by an exogenous event, because the XAU has ralliedback up to point "D" at 175, and it has done it by mid-October -matching the forecast by the S#1. If that is the case, then the XAUwillturn down shortly, and it will test support point "E" at 160 (-/+ 5 points) A downside reversal at point "D" followed by an upside reversal at point "E" will provide us with confirmation that indeedS#1is still valid, and point "E" constitutes alow risk entry.
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/other_extra/xauF.png
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/other_extra/xauD.png
If S#1 is still valid, and presently unfolding, it means that the XAU will rally from 160 (-/+ 5 pts) to 230 (-/+ 5 pts) for a gain of roughly70 pts. However, we will not have confirmation until the XAU pulls back from current levels to approximately 160 (-/+ 5 pts) and then it reverses to the upside.
MARKETVIEWS.TVInterview with Ike Iossif
By "Zapata"George
09/15/2007 10:00 AM PST
Q: On 8-3-07 -based upon the price pattern of the SP500 over the previous 4 weeks- youidentified severalprice scenarios which -in your view- had the highest probability of unfolding over the following 4-6 weeks. On 8-31-07(see DP report) you narrowed them down to just two, where are we now?
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/weekly_extra/sp4-0803.pnghttp://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/weekly_extra/sp6-0803.png
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/weekly_extra/sp2090107.jpghttp://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Aegean/charts/sp1090107.jpg
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/weekly_extra/sp091607c.jpg
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/weekly_extra/sp091607A.jpghttp://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Aegean/charts/sp091607B.jpg
A: So far, the actual price pattern has been almost identical withthesuggested one. On 8-31-07 the SP was at point "1" since then, it declinedto point "2" and then rallied back up to point "3" -asexpected. Notice that point "3" is a critical one, because according to our scenarios, that is the point from which the SP will either decline, or, rally further by another 80-100 points. I want to emphasize that just because so far the price pattern has unfolded according to our scenarios, it doesn'tnecessarily mean that it will continue to do so, but theodds at this point, are better than even in favor of completion. In order for point "3" to become a "launching pad" for an 80-100 point move in the SP, the market will need a "catalyst." Coincidentally, next week, not only the FED is expected to lower rates, but also,Goldman Sachs, Bear Sterns, and Lehman, will report 3Q earnings, thus,the chances are pretty good that the market will get the "catalyst"that it needsto spark an 80-100 point move in the SP over the next 10-20 trading days.
Q: Are you positioned -in advance- in preference of either the bearish, or, the bullish resolution?
A: I have no major positionsin anticipation ofeither outcome. Our managed accounts are either90%-95% in cash (if they were open prior to 2-1-07) or, they are 50% invested in fully hedged positions (if they were open after 2-1-07) thus, our net exposure to the market isminimal. Given the current elevated level of market risk, I believe the right thing to do, is to wait for the price action to confirm either the bearish, or, the bullish outcome, before making a major net commitment to the market,even if it means missing out onthe first 20-30 pointsof the move. As youknow,patience is one of the most important, and necessaryvirtues for long-term survivalin our business!
Q: Do you have an opinion with regards to the final outcome?
A: Yes, I do, and I will discuss it in detail, but since you mentioned it, if I may, I would like to take the opportunity to point something out for the benefit of those listenerswho are managing their investments on their own. The key metric to consider before taking a position, is not the probability of being wrong, versus, being right -as many people think. It is the expected R.O.R adjusted for different market conditions.
Q; Can you elaborate on this?
A: Of course. To make thingssimple, we'll assumethe following: an investor has a total risk capital of $10k, the dollar amount committed to each trade is always the same, andhe/she employs a trading system which has proven to have a 60%probability of success under anymarket condition ( conversely, the probability of failure is 40%) Now, we'll use the data I just gave you tocalculatethe expected ROR for the same market, but for two different time periods, taking into account the prevailing market conditions in each time period. Keep in mind thatfor both time periods, the probability of success is thesame (60%) however during period A, the expected loss is 10%, and during period B the expected loss is 25%, whilethe expected gain remains the same at 10%. Interestingly, although the probability of success is the same, for both time periods, the expected R.O.R. is not.
Expected R.O.R per trade for period A:
(60%*10%)-(40%*10%)= 6.0%-4.0%=2.0%,
Expected R.O.R. per trade for period B:
(60%*10%)-(40%*25%)=6.0%-10.0%=-4.0%.
So, my point is this:Even if one's "opinion" iscorrect most of the time, the actual returns from tradingon that "opinion" will vary from time to time due to differences inthe "market climate." Investors need to identify those times when -althoughtheratio betweenwinning trades and losing trades matches the historic one- the market climate is such, that results in negative returns, anyway. To put it simply,even if threeout of every four trades are winners, one can still end up losing money, if the loss from the one losing trade exceeds the gains from the three winningtrades. Consider the following: in the last 45 days the SP has had a net gain of 2 points, but,intra-day it has traveled -on an absolute basis- approximately 500 points (see chart below) Moreover, it has rallied, or, declined in excess of 1% during thelast 60 minutes of trading, approximately 1/3 of the time, only to gap in the opposite direction the next morning!
In summary,this is not the type of market that inspires "heroics" this is the type of market that requires patience. Market participants should look for a pattern they knowhow to trade, and then wait for confirmation before taking any positions, so they don't get whipsawed. In addition, investors/traders must be willing to recognize that although they may possess ahigh level of experience, skills, knowledge, etc., the market is bigger than all of us, and ifit turnsagainst us, not only we'll lose, but also, we'll lose more than what we had expected. You and I -and everyone else I know in the business- have had our share of such unpleasant experiences! It would be a lie if I proclaimed that I have been able torecognize every single one of those times when the market appeared to be doing one thing, when in reality it was doing something else. Most of the times I caught it, a few times I didn't, and it cost me dearly.Market participants needto recognize that we are experiencingone of those times, during whichrisk metrics -even the very sophisticated ones- may not be able to capture the actual level of market risk.
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/weekly_extra/sphrly091507.pngQ: Ok, now please tell me youropinion on the market.
A: The SP has rallied 110 points from its August low, partly in reaction to the FED's initial handling of the "crisis" and partly from faith that "more help is on the way." The 110 point rally has discounted -in my view- a cut by 25 basis points, for the market to move further, something more is needed. Therefore, if the FED just lowers the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, anddoesn't make it clear in its statement that more will follow, thenI believe the SP will sell-off, and it will re-visit the 1420-1400 support zone. If it holds, then I would expect another rally towards 1490-1510. If the 1420-1400 support zone doesn't hold, the next support is at1370-1360, and below that, we got the1325-1315 zone.
On the other hand, if the FED goes out of its way to accommodate the market, and none of the 3 big brokerage firms reporting 3Q earnings next week reports anything that catches the market by surprise, then the bulls willhave an excuse to push the SP towards the 1510 resistance level. If the SP rallies to 1510 from current levels, then it will be overbought enough to warrant a pullback to 1490-1480, which ought to be followed by another rally towards 1510-1525.
Q; What are the odds for either of the above happening?
A: Notice that over the past 5 trading days inflows and outflows have been at equilibrium, suggesting that for next week, the odds are even for liquidity to turn either positive, or, negative which means, over the short-term, the oddsbetween lower and higher prices are almost even, and thus, investors ought to be equally prepared for either outcome.
http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/Aegean/charts/aegean1.gifQ: In your view, what are the oddsthat the SP has entered a bear market?
A: As you know I use a different set of MAVGs -other than the 50, 200 DMAs- to determine that. To conclude that the SP has entered a bear market, liquidity will have to turn negative, accompanied by a decline in price down tothe 1350-1340 zone, followed by a rally that will fail in the 1370-1380 zone. As you can see, noneof these three conditions has been met, as of yet. Therefore, at the present time, the oddsstill favor continuation of the bull market.
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/weekly_extra/spAVG091607.png http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/weekly_extra/spAVG091607b.pngLets take a look at one morechart for the SP. The chart below shows the ratio of two different moving averages of daily lows, and daily highs. Notice how a negative divergence is followed by a sharp decline in price. In bull markets the indicator stays flat for about 8-10 weeks, then it turns up and quickly shoots up to the 50-60 level. At the moment, the indicator appears to be acting as if the bull market is still on. (see arrows on the bottom of the chart)
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/weekly_extra/sphiloR091607.png
Q; How about gold stocks?
A: So far, we have had a very sharp rally, bur no firm confirmation, yet, that a new multi-month rally has indeed started. Take a look at the chart below. First of all, notice that if indeed the rally of the last 4 weeks represents the start of an intermediate-term advance within the context of a secular bull market, then, this is only the first leg of the advance, and after a pullback to theDMA,another one, or, two legs should follow. Notice that in the previous three intermediate advances, the XAU rallied from the bottom on average 25%-33% non-stop, then it pulled back to theDMA, and then it resumed its advance. During intermediate term advances, pullbacks to theDMA, represent LOW-RISK ENTRY POINTS, we haven't had that, yet. As of Friday's close the XAU has rallied 33% from its August bottom, consequently, it should be pretty close to a pullback, if price finds supportat the DMA (green line, see arrows) and it reverses to the upside, then we will have confirmationthat an intermediate term advance is under way.
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/weekly_extra/xau091607a.pngAt the moment because of the 33% advance, and because of the negative divergences shown in the 3 charts below, I believe that the upside potential is at most 10 points. If the advance is for real, then sometime over the next 5-15 trading days we should get a pullback with a magnitude of 7%-10%, followed by another leg to the upside of roughly equal magnitude (30%-35%) Those who are bullish on gold/gold stocks butlooking for a low-risk entry need to remain patient for another 5-15 trading days. If an intermediate-term advance is indeed underway, a low-risk entry point should be no more than 5-15 trading days away.
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/weekly_extra/xauio091607a.jpghttp://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/weekly_extra/xauio091607b.jpghttp://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/weekly_extra/xauio091607c.jpg
HOME AEGEAN CAPITAL HOME MARKETVIEWS.TV TUTORIALS - INDEX INDICATORSPART#1Click here to listen!http://www.aegeancapital.com/images/speaker.gifPage 1,(source:stockcharts.com)
What is an Indicator?An indicator is a series of data points that are derived by applying a formula to the price data of a security. Price data includes any combination of the open, high, low or close over a period of time. Some indicators may use only the closing prices, while others incorporate volume and open interest into their formulas. The price data is entered into the formula and a data point is produced.
For example, the average of 3 closing prices is one data point ((41+43+43)/3=42.33). However, one data point does not offer much information and does not an indicator make. A series of data points over a period of time is required to create valid reference points to enable analysis. By creating a time series of data points, a comparison can be made between present and past levels. For analysis purposes, indicators are usually shown in a graphical form above or below a security’s price chart. Once shown in graphical form, an indicator can then be compared with the corresponding price chart of the security. Sometimes indicators are plotted on top of the price plot for a more direct comparison.
What does an Indicator Offer?An indicator offers a different perspective from which to analyze the price action. Some, such as moving averages, are derived from simple formulas and the mechanics are relatively easy to understand. Others, such as Stochastics, have complex formulas and require more study to fully understand and appreciate. Regardless of the complexity of the formula, indicators can provide unique perspective on the strength and direction of the underlying price action.
A simple moving average is an indicator that calculates the average price of a security over a specified number of periods. If a security is exceptionally volatile, then a moving average will help to smooth the data. A moving average filters out random noise and offers a smoother perspective of the price action. Veritas (VRTS) displays a lot of volatility and an analyst may have difficulty discerning a trend. By applying a 10-day simple moving average to the price action, random fluctuations are smoothed to make it easier to identify a trend.
http://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/indicators1/indic1-vrts.gif
Page 2xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxIndicators serve three broad functions:
1. Alert.
An indicator can act as an alert to study price action a little more closely. If momentum is waning, it may be a signal to watch for a break of support. Or, if there is a large positive divergence building, it may serve as an alert to watch for a resistance breakout.
2. Confirm
Indicators can be used to confirm other technical analysis tools. If there is a breakout on the price chart, a corresponding moving average crossover could serve to confirm the breakout. Or, if a stock breaks support, a corresponding low in the On-Balance-Volume (OBV) could serve to confirm the weakness.
3. Predict
Some investors and traders use indicators to predict the direction of future prices. (Here at AegeanCapital we believe that the above generally holds true for indicators that are proprietary. We have yet to see an indicator that is freely available, and yet it has great predicting value. However, some notable exceptions do exist)
Page 3xxxxxxxxxxKeep in mind, ALL indicators are derivatives and not direct reflections of the price action. This should be taken into consideration when applying analysis. Any analysis of an indicator should be taken with the price action in mind. What is the indicator saying about the price action of a security? Is the price action getting stronger? Weaker?
Even though it may be obvious when indicators generate buy and sell signals, the signals should be taken in context with other technical analysis tools. An indicator may flash a buy signal, but if the chart pattern shows a descending triangle with a series of declining peaks, it may be a false signal.
On the Inktomi (INKT) chart, MACD MACD improved from April to August and formed a positive divergence in August. All the earmarks of a MACD buying opportunity were present, but the stock failed to break above the resistance and exceed its previous reaction high. This non-confirmation from the stock should have served as a warning sign against a long position. For the record, a sell signal occurred when the stock broke support from the descending triangle in early Oct-00 .
http://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/indicators1/indic1-INKT.gif
Page 4xxxxxxxxxxPOINTS TO REMEMBER:
As always in technical analysis, learning how to read indicators is more of an art than a science. The same indicator may exhibit different behavioral patterns when applied to different stocks. Indicators that work well for IBM might not work the same for Delta Airlines. Through careful study and analysis, expertise with the various indicators will develop over time. As this expertise develops, certain nuances as well as favorite setups will become clear.
There are hundreds of indicators in use today, with new indicators being created every week. Technical analysis software programs come with dozens of indicators built in, and even allow users to create their own. Given the amount of hype that is associated with indicators, choosing an indicator to follow can be a daunting task. Even with the introduction of hundreds of new indicators, only a select few really offer a different perspective and are worthy of attention. Strangely enough, the indicators that usually merit the most attention are those that have been around the longest time and have stood the test of time.
When choosing an indicator to use for analysis, choose carefully and moderately. Attempts to cover more than five indicators are usually futile. It is best to focus on two or three indicators and learn their intricacies inside and out. Try to choose indicators that complement each other, instead of those that move in unison and generate the same signals. For example, it would be redundant to use two indicators that are good for showing overbought and oversold levels, such as Stochastics and RSI. Both of these indicators measure momentum and both have overbought/oversold levels.
Page 5xxxxxxxxxxTWO DIFFERENT TYPES OF INDICATORS:
1. LEADING
As their name implies, leading indicators are designed to lead price movements. Most represent a form of price momentum over a fixed look-back period, which is the number of periods used to calculate the indicator. For example, a 20-day Stochastic Oscillator would use the past 20 days of price action (about a month) in its calculation. All prior price action would be ignored. Some of the more popular leading indicators include Commodity Channel Index (CCI) , Momentum Relative Strength Index (RSI) , Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R.
2. LAGGING INDICATORS
As their name implies, lagging indicators follow the price action and are commonly referred to as trend-following indicators. Rarely, if ever, will these indicators lead the price of a security. Trend-following indicators work best when markets or securities develop strong trends. They are designed to get traders in and keep them in as long as the trend is intact. As such, these indicators are not effective in trading or sideways markets. If used in trading markets, trend-following indicators will likely lead to many false signals and whipsaws. Typicaltrend-following indicators include moving averages(exponential, simple, weighted, variable) and MACD
(source:stockcharts.com)
HOME AEGEAN CAPITAL HOME MARKETVIEWS.TV TUTORIALS - INDEX
AEGEAN CAPITAL GROUPINC. All Rights Reserved. Aegean Capital Group Inc./Marketviews.tv HOME AEGEAN CAPITAL HOME MARKETVIEWS.TV TUTORIALS - INDEX INDICATORSPART#2(source:stockcharts.com/Arthur Hill)
In Part 2 of our tutorial on indicators we will cover "Leading" and "Lagging" Indicators.
Leading Indicators :
As their name implies, leading indicators are designed to precede price movements. Most represent a form of rate of change in price momentum over a fixed look-back period, which is the number of periods used to calculate the indicator. For example, a 14-day RSIwould use the past 14 days of price action (about three weeks) in its calculation. All prior price action would be ignored. Some of the more popular leading indicators include Commodity Channel Index (CCI), Momentum, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Stochastic Oscillator and Williams %R.
What Do Most Leading Indicators Measure?
Keep in mind that mostLeading Indicators are actually some type of aMomentum Oscillator. Consequently, they tend to measure the rate at which the price of the security is moving. The bigger the move the bigger the rate of change and vice versa. Things tend to become confusing when a security tradeswithin anarrow flat range. Usually when that happens, "momentum" will begin to decline, reflecting the sideways movement. This action does not necessarily mean that the move has been exhausted and the current trend will change.
Two KEY things by which "leading" indicators forewarn about the upcoming move:
1. Little price movement, yet a noticeable change in the indicator.
2. A divergence between price movement and the indicator.
Take a good look at the chart below. As you can see during the "consolidation" phase we had no actual decline in price, yet the RSI fell from 80+ to nearly 60 (a noticeable change) That is a Bullish sign! However, during the "Exhaustion" phase we had a negative divergence. Price moved higher, but the RSI moved lower, meaning the up-move was coming to its final conclusion.
http://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/indicators2/indic2-rsi-ibm.gif
(source:stockcharts.com/Arthur Hill) Conclusion: When using leading indicators you do not pay that much attention to their absolute value. An RSI reading of +90 it does not mean that the up-move is exhausted, conversely, an RSI reading of -90 it does not mean the down move is exhausted. What you are looking for is positive or negative DIVERGENCES between price action and the indicator. Furthermore, indicators are not infallible, thus you do not open a position until price actually moves as expected.
When do "Leading Indicators" work the best?
Leading Indicators work the best in "trading markets" only in tandem with the primary trend in place, not against it. In a market trending up, the best use is to help identify oversold conditions for buying opportunities. In a market that is trending down, leading indicators can help identify overbought situations for selling opportunities. Many people lost money buying into NASDAQ during the decline from September 2000 to April 2001, becausethey falsely used leading indicators to identify "oversold" points! In a market that is trending down you use these indicators to identify "overbought" points to go short!
Trending Up>Oversold Condition>Buying Opportunity
Trending Down>Overbought Condition>Selling Short Opportunity
Lagging Indicators:
As their name implies, lagging indicators follow the price action and are commonly referred to as trend-following indicators. These kind of indicators confirm that the current trend is still intact, but they provide no clue whether it is about to change or not. Consequently, Trend-following indicators work best when markets or securities are instrong trends. The most commonly used lagging indicators are based on moving averages. It should be noted that these indicators are highly inaccurate when used in "trading markets" In all likelihood they will result in a series of losses if they are used to generate entry/exit signals.
http://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/indicators2/indic2-sma-spx.gif
(source:stockcharts.com/Arthur Hill)
The chart above shows the S&P 500 with the 20-day simple moving average and the 100-day simple moving average. Using a moving average crossover to generate the signals, there were seven signals over the two years covered in the chart. Over these two years, the system would have been enormously profitable. This is due to the strong trends that developed from Oct-97 to Aug-98 and from Nov-98 to Aug-99. However, notice that as soon as the index starts to move sideways in a trading range, the whipsaws begin. The signals in Nov-97 (sell), Aug-99 (sell) and Sept-99 (buy) were reversed in a matter of days. Had these moving averages been longer (50- and 200-day moving averages), there would have been fewer whipsaws. Had these moving average been shorter (10 and 50-day moving average), there would have been more whipsaws, more signals, and earlier signals.
Advantagesand Disadvantagesof Lagging Indicators
There are three main advantages in using these types of indicators: a) They are very easy to set up and follow, thus, even relatively inexperienced traders can use them with little or on difficulty. b) Assumingthe trend develops into a strong one, the probability of getting "whipsawed" is rather small. c) They tend to be excellent confirming indicators.
The obvious disadvantage is that they rarely give a warning signal, plus, as we already mentioned earlier if they are used in a "trading" type of market they will result in plenty of false and unprofitable signals.
(source:stockcharts.com/Arthur hill)
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http://www.goldstockanalyst.com/images/Aug07thumb.jpgGold Stock Analyst (GSA) is a newsletter which makes it simple for investors to own a portfolio of the best gold stocks. Published twice a month since 1994 by a former Professor of Economics and Finance (Bentley College in Waltham, MA), GSA focuses on the 60 gold and 15 silver miners that have ounces that meet the US Security and Exchange Commission's strict reporting standard for Proven and Probable Reserves. From those meeting this standard, GSA crunches numbers, dissects SEC filings, visits mines, talks and visits with management.
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If you already own other gold stocks that report Reserve ounces to the SEC's standards, you'll get our opinion and on-going coverage of them too. GSA follows the entire industry as that's the only way to know if a stock is undervalued, and we can like any stock at a certain price. If a big fund changes its managers and dumps a position, we might like the stock at the new lower price and since we already know it, we can immediately react to make it Top 10 if justified.
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GSA makes around 6 trades a year (4 in 2007) and has held as much as 40% cash. We say "sell" when targets are reached or if our opinion changes. We avoid the more typical 25 to 40 "recommended" stocks... a number impossible to follow, and is just too many stocks to give good overall results. This is why no other gold stock advisory service presents their recommended portfolio's year-to-date and annual results, as do GSA, mutual funds, and your own brokerage account summaries.
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Financial Sense Homel Market MonitorlMarket WrapUpl Storm Watch lAbout Us lContact Us http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/banner.gifToday's WrapUp by Ike Iossif 06.08.2004Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Archive
PATTERN RECOGNITION ANALYSIS http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/ike.gifSometimes when a market is undergoing a "character” transformation due to the size and number of changes that are taking place simultaneously, we end up with lots of extreme and conflicting readings. In that case we select those indices, which have chart patterns that historically have provided us with recognizable and reliable outcome scenarios and we build our short-term expectations and strategy based upon them. At the moment it is quite clear that between January and now the markets have been engaged either in an orderly sideways consolidation process, from which they will break out to the upside OR to the downside.The high put/call ratio, the COT numbers showing commercial traders net long, and the new record number for NYSE member net buy/sell strongly suggest an upside breakout.Conversely, the high volatility ratios, the low volume, the high number of stocks below their 200 MA despite the recent advance, the McClellan Oscillator rallying 700 points, the SP500 only gaining4.1%, the number of new lows exceeding new highs, and "good news" greeted with sell orders, strongly suggest an imminent breakdown.So, let's examine how a breakout or a breakdown would unfold based upon the current chart pattern.The Dow has the cleanest chart for the job, so we'll focus primarily on the Dow this week and we'll use it as our "master guide” for confirmation in order to trade the SP or NASDAQ. The Dow has been in a well-defined and easily recognizable rising channel. It has risen to channel resistance twice, first during November-December of 2002 and second during January - February of 2004. We know that the first contact with channel resistance was followed by a decline to channel support in March of 2003. Since then, the Dow spent nine months rallying back up to channel resistance, which begs the question: Is it going to move higher above channel resistance or is it going to turn down again and revisit channel support? Notice that the area of consolidation is still within the larger channel and it is defined by line "C" and line "B" (the upper two thick black lines). If it breaks to the upside, it would have to close above 10370. Therefore, if we have a Dow close this week above 10370, it would imply that the consolidation has resulted in an upside resolution, which should take the Dow to point "D" on the blue line (see next chart).http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/04/0604_1.pngSo if the Dow was to close above 10370, we would go LONG, with a stop at 10370 and we would expect the first upside price target to be in the 10850-11000 zone.http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/04/0604_2.pngOn the other hand,if the Dow fails to close above 10370 and instead it turns back down, the key level to watch is the May lows. If the May lows are taken out on a closing basis, we should see a further decline to 9750, which is along line "B." From there, we ought to see a brief relief rally that will fail around 10000. This would be followed by another decline back down to channel support around 9100-9000, which happens to be at the intersection oftwo support lines and also it is a 50% Fibonacci retracement number. So if Dow fails to closeabove 10370, we will go SHORT with a stop at 10370.http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/04/0604_3.pngIke Iossif Copyright © 2004 All rights reserved.Ike Iossif
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Financial Sense Homel Market MonitorlMarket WrapUpl Storm Watch lAbout Us lContact Us http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/banner.gifToday's WrapUp by Ike Iossif 06.08.2004Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Archive
PATTERN RECOGNITION ANALYSIS http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/ike.gifSometimes when a market is undergoing a "character” transformation due to the size and number of changes that are taking place simultaneously, we end up with lots of extreme and conflicting readings. In that case we select those indices, which have chart patterns that historically have provided us with recognizable and reliable outcome scenarios and we build our short-term expectations and strategy based upon them. At the moment it is quite clear that between January and now the markets have been engaged either in an orderly sideways consolidation process, from which they will break out to the upside OR to the downside.The high put/call ratio, the COT numbers showing commercial traders net long, and the new record number for NYSE member net buy/sell strongly suggest an upside breakout.Conversely, the high volatility ratios, the low volume, the high number of stocks below their 200 MA despite the recent advance, the McClellan Oscillator rallying 700 points, the SP500 only gaining4.1%, the number of new lows exceeding new highs, and "good news" greeted with sell orders, strongly suggest an imminent breakdown.So, let's examine how a breakout or a breakdown would unfold based upon the current chart pattern.The Dow has the cleanest chart for the job, so we'll focus primarily on the Dow this week and we'll use it as our "master guide” for confirmation in order to trade the SP or NASDAQ. The Dow has been in a well-defined and easily recognizable rising channel. It has risen to channel resistance twice, first during November-December of 2002 and second during January - February of 2004. We know that the first contact with channel resistance was followed by a decline to channel support in March of 2003. Since then, the Dow spent nine months rallying back up to channel resistance, which begs the question: Is it going to move higher above channel resistance or is it going to turn down again and revisit channel support? Notice that the area of consolidation is still within the larger channel and it is defined by line "C" and line "B" (the upper two thick black lines). If it breaks to the upside, it would have to close above 10370. Therefore, if we have a Dow close this week above 10370, it would imply that the consolidation has resulted in an upside resolution, which should take the Dow to point "D" on the blue line (see next chart).http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/04/0604_1.pngSo if the Dow was to close above 10370, we would go LONG, with a stop at 10370 and we would expect the first upside price target to be in the 10850-11000 zone.http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/04/0604_2.pngOn the other hand,if the Dow fails to close above 10370 and instead it turns back down, the key level to watch is the May lows. If the May lows are taken out on a closing basis, we should see a further decline to 9750, which is along line "B." From there, we ought to see a brief relief rally that will fail around 10000. This would be followed by another decline back down to channel support around 9100-9000, which happens to be at the intersection oftwo support lines and also it is a 50% Fibonacci retracement number. So if Dow fails to closeabove 10370, we will go SHORT with a stop at 10370.http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/04/0604_3.pngIke Iossif
AEGEAN CAPITAL GROUPINC. All Rights Reserved. Aegean Capital Group Inc./Marketviews.tv HOME AEGEAN CAPITAL HOME MARKETVIEWS.TV TUTORIALS - INDEX Guest: Mr. Kennedy GammageKondratieff Wave Part I (scroll down the page for partII) Wait until the page loads, then Click HEREhttp://www.aegeancapital.com/images/speaker.gifto listen!http://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/kondratieff/pg1.ht1.gifhttp://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/kondratieff/pg1.ht2.gifKondratieff Wave Part IIWait until the page loads, then Click HEREhttp://www.aegeancapital.com/images/speaker.gifto listen! http://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/kondratieff/1.jpghttp://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/kondratieff/2.jpghttp://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/kondratieff/3.jpg
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AEGEAN CAPITAL GROUPINC. All Rights Reserved. Aegean Capital Group Inc./Marketviews.tv HOME AEGEAN CAPITAL HOME MARKETVIEWS.TV TUTORIALS - INDEX Guest: Mr. Kennedy Gammage, Company: The Richland Company.McClellan Oscillator: Complex Formations Wait until the page loads, then Click HEREhttp://www.aegeancapital.com/images/speaker.gifto listen! http://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/mcclellan/1.jpghttp://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/mcclellan/2.jpghttp://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/mcclellan/3.jpghttp://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/mcclellan/4.jpg
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GROWTH CYCLES Click HEREhttp://www.aegeancapital.com/images/speaker.gifto listen!Pg.1Guest: Mr. Kennedy Gammage, Company: The Richland Company. http://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/growthcycles/pg1.ht1.gifhttp://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/growthcycles/pg1.ht2.gifPAGE 2http://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/growthcycles/pg2.ht3.gifhttp://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/growthcycles/pg2.ht4.gifhttp://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/tutorials/growthcycles/pg3.ht1.gifHOME AEGEAN CAPITAL HOME MARKETVIEWS.TV TUTORIALS - INDEX All Rights Reserved. Aegean Capital Group Inc./Marketviews.tv
Today's WrapUp by Ike Iossif 09.23.2003Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Archive"Charts Don't Lie. They Tell The Story." http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/ike.gifCharts may not always be able to predict where the market is going next, but they always reveal the truth with regards to where it's at the present time (Pictures do not lie!). With that in mind, I think it is appropriate to examine the charts of the Dow, SP500, NDX, and of the HUI, in three different time frames; monthly, weekly, daily.
We can make the same comment for both the Dow and the SP in examining their respective monthly charts. The markets have spent the last 11 months (starting in October of 2002) just rallying up to massive overhead resistance. During that time, the rally has consumed close to 650 billion according to the estimates of Aegean Capital Group, Inc. One has to wonder, if it took already 11 months of rallying and 650 billion just to get to resistance, where is the additional fuel going to come from to propel the market above resistance? The long-term charts, suggest that maybe it was too early for the bulls to have opened the expensive champagne bottle. The bulls have won one major battle, but the charts are telling us that the war is not over yet.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/03/0916/1.jpg Those who have been long can use the 9300 level as the line in the sand. A weekly close below 9300 would serve as a warning shot over the bow of the ship carrying the bulls that the good times may be coming to an end and they should be keeping a life jacket near by just in case they may have to jump ship in a hurry! http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/03/0916/2.jpg On a daily basis, a close below 9380 on heavy volume will be a signal that the bears have wrestled control of the market away from the bulls. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/03/0923/3.jpg We can make the same comment for both the Dow and the SP in examining their respective monthly charts. The markets have spent the last 11 months (starting in October of 2002) just rallying up to massive overhead resistance. During that time, the rally has consumed close to 650 billion -according to the estimates of Aegean Capital Group, Inc.- One has to wonder, if it took already 11 months of rallying, and 650 billion just to get to resistance, where is the additional fuel is going to come from, to propel the market above resistance? The long term charts, suggest that maybe it was too early for the bulls to have opened the expensive champagne bottle. The bulls have won one major battle, but the charts are telling us that the war is not over yet. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/03/0923/4.jpg Those who have been looking for an opportunity to go short on an intermediate term basis, initial positions of 10%-15% can be taken in the 1035-1045 zone, to be followed by another 25%-30% in the 1065-1075 zone,to be followed by another 35%-45% in the 1120-1140 zone. As it stands right now, the SP on a weekly basis, has already reached major resistance and unless the bulls can find a way to overcome this resistance, we ought to expect a pullback. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/03/0916/5.jpg On a daily basis, a close below 1005 on heavy volume will be a signal that the bears have wrestled control of the market away from the bulls. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/03/0916/6.jpg Eleven months of rallying, eight consecutive months of higher monthly closes, a few hundred billion in net inflows, and yet this index has not even reached long-term resistance! Charts do not lie! http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/03/0923/7.jpg On a weekly basis, the 1400 level appears to be formidable resistance, notice that channel support is in the 1275-1250 zone. That happens to be about 150 points below current levels, which suggests a possible 10% decline from current levels. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/03/0923/8.jpg This index finished the day at channel support with a big gap right above it, which means there is a high likelihood that we'll see a bounce off of support that will close the gap. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/03/0923/9.jpg The long-term upside target for the HUI is in the 250-255 zone, which is about 20% higher from current levels. Given that we expect a decline in the U.S. dollar of similar magnitude, this target makes a whole lot of sense to us. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/03/0923/10.jpg Over the next week or so, the HUI will encounter resistance in the 215-217 zone. A pullback to the 200 area can be expected, but in our view it should be used as an opportunity to add to long positions for a run to the 250 level. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/03/0916/11.jpg It broke above resistance at 205 and now we should expect further advance to the top of the channel in the 215-217 zone. http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/images/03/0923/12.jpg
Chart courtesy: www.chartsmarts.com
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By Ike Iossif
Posted on 2-16-07
Overview:
The performance of gold stocks in 2006was greatly influenced by the introduction of two"variables" which previously had not beena part of the market "equation."The presence of these new elementsaltered some of the "known" trading characteristicsof the sector, necessitating a re-examination of our assumptions, and outlook. The following comments representourview going forward after taking into consideration the changes we witnessed in 2006(please seethe expected price behavior as constructed by our pattern recognition models at the bottom of this page)
1. Price Pattern:
1a.The first significant change that took place last year, had to do with the "price pattern" of the XAU.The current bull market started in November of 2000 with the XAUbottoming out at 41. Since then,the bull market has unfoldedwith price oscillating within awell defined rising channelwhich is still intact ( see thick blue channel in the chart below)
1b. A complete "cycle"is aprice oscillation from the bottom of the channel to the top, and back to the bottom. The end of one cycle marks the beginning of another.Notice that we have had four such cycles,threecompleted ones, and one that is currently unfolding.The first cycle (Cycle#1)startedwith price rallyingfrom the bottom of the channel at point "A"to the top of the channel at point "B", and then back down to the bottom of the channel at point "C." The second cycle(CYCLE#2) startedwith price rallyingfrom the bottom of the channel at point "C" to the top of the channel at point "D", and then back down to the bottom of the channel at point "E." Thethird cycle (CYCLE#3)started with price rallyingfrom the bottom of the channel at point "E" to the top of the channel at point "F" Notice thatthe third cycle did not conclude with a test of support, like the previous two. At its conclusion we had an inversion, instead of a cycle low we got a cycle high.
CYCLE#1:(A-B-C) CYCLE#2 : (C-D-E)CYCLE#3: (E-F-)
CYCLE#1:CYCLE#2 :CYCLE#3:
(A-B-C)(C-D-E)(E-F) GAINS111%102%126% CHART#1PRICE PATTERNhttp://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xau022007A.pngNotice that the first three cycles have identical price patterns, which can be described as follows:
When the XAU starts a new cycle, it spends the first half of the cycletradingfromchannel support, up to the middle of the channel, and back down to channel support (see points I, II, and III)Afterre-testing channel support, it blasts off like a ballistic missile straight upfrom the bottom of its rising channel to the top (seerally#1identified by points I-B, rally #2 identified by points II-D, and rally#3 identified by points III-F.
Each cycle is characterized by an identicalsharp decline which takesplace almost immediately after the XAUreaches the topof the channel.The decline takes price back downto test support at the break-out point, which in the first two cycles also represented a Fib. retracement level of .618
So, given the pattern of the last six years, one wouldhave expectedtwo things in 2006:
The XAU to conclude its previous cycle with alow, and to spend the first 10-12 monthsof the new cycle (all of 2006)trading in the bottom half of its long-term channel.
However, in 2006 that is not what happened, instead of a cycle low, wegot a cycle high, and the XAUspent the entire year trading in the upper half of its long-term rising channel.
The fact that the XAU reversed its pattern behavior in 2006 has significant implications for how price may behave in2007. There are only twopossible explanations why it spent 2006 inthe upper half of the channel instead of the bottom half:
1c. Either, the overall pattern is still intact and the XAU ultimately will re-test channel support -as it has done during the previous cycles- before it embarks onits next mega-rally. Thus, over the next 90-120 days the XAUcan be expected tofall to the 114-110 zone, and then to start its next up-leg rallyingup to the 200 levelwithin the following 4-6 months (see illustration below)
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xau022007B.pngCHART#2(DECLINE TO 114-110) 1d. Or, The bull market in gold/gold stocks is about to accelerate, and thus, theslope of the channel that definesthe primary trend will get steeper. In the new up-leg, the highs, and lows will be defined by the green channel, which is rising at a steeper angle than the blue one.Thus, over the next 1-2 weeks, we can expect testing support in the 140-137 zone, and then a rallyup to 240-250 over the next several months. (see illustration below)
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xau022007G.pngCHART#3(DECLINE TO 140-137,THEN RALLY TO 240-250)
Technically speaking, notice that currently the XAU is at the apex of a symmetrical triangle,which within two weeks -at most- will result in either a break-down, or, a break-out. In other words, thetechnical pattern is ideal forenabling/accommodating either of the two outcomes we discussed, whichincreases the oddsthat ultimately one of the two expected outcomes will indeed materialize. (see illustration below)
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xau022007C.pngCHART#4(SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE)
2. The underperformance of gold stocks versus thebullion:
2a.Thesecondelement of surprise thru-out 2006 wasthe gross underperformance ofgold stocks versus the bullion. Gold stocks have lagged for the past 16 months, and they have done so by a wide margin. In the past, gold stocks havelead the metal both on the upside and on the downside. Consequently, anyone who istrading gold stocks,ought-at least- togive the mattersome thought, and determine thereasons behind it.
2/16/062/16/07GAINGOLD54766822%XAU1371434.0%HUI30634915%Obviously, one reason may be that the gold stocks are doing their job -as they always have- giving us an advanced notice of an implosion in the price of gold/gold stocks sometime in the future. Judging from the length and the size of the under-performance and comparing it to previous similar "signals" that foretold the demise of gold, the XAU is telling us that sometime in the near future gold will lose about 30%-40% of its value. Although itis possible, we do not think it is very probable.
We believe that the under-performancehas to do with the introduction of the GLD.Take a look at the chart below. It shows the cumulative ROC of the daily trading volume of GLD, XAU, HUI, and GDX.Notice that for the last 2 years, trading volume in GLD hasbeenincreasing at a rate that is five timesbigger thanthe rate of either HUI, or, XAU. Prior to the introduction of the GLD, the only way for ordinary investors to have someexposure to gold was thru the ownership of gold stocks which tend to be rather volatile, and require some degree of knowledge about individual gold stocks. The GLDsimplified the process and made it very attractive and hassle free forpeople toown gold. Consequently, there has been a migrationfrom gold stocksto GLD by investors who simply care to own some gold for "safety" and diversification purposes.
However,gold stocks are aboutto benefit from the introduction GDX, the same way gold benefited from GLD. Notice that sinceGDXstarted trading, 10 months ago,its trading volume has been increasing at a rate higher than GLD's.Most investorsare opting to createexposure to gold, byputting half of thecapital that is designated for gold allocation in GLD, and the otherhalf in GDX, in order to enhance returns.So far, the evidence suggests that the demand for GDXwill continue un-abated, and we believe over the next two years -assuming the bull market in gold is still intact- gold stocks will reverse the under-performance of the last two years.
CHART#5 (VOLUME ROC)http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/roc022007.png
Copyright © 1999-2007, All rights reserved. Aegean Capital Group, Inc./Ike Iossif. Reproduction is strictly prohibited. 3.Technical Indicators:
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xaumc1.gif3a. Thepattern of the McClellan Oscillator suggests that we can get a "pop" within the next 1-3 trading days.
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xaumc2.gif3b. TheSummation Index has been making higher lows, confirming the higher lows by the XAU.
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xaumc3.gif3c. TheA/Dline has diverged positively, which is always a "good thing."
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xaumc4.gif3d. Thepattern of the McClellan Oscillator suggests that we can get a "pop" within the next 1-3 trading days.
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xaumc5.gif3e. TheSummation Index has been making higher lows, confirming the higher lows by the XAU.
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xaumc6.gif3f. Cumulative volume line has formed a triple bottom.
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xauTO.gif3g. The price T.O. has formed an inverted "head and shoulders" suggesting higher prices for the near-term.
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xauvolTO.gif3h. The volume T.O. has formed an inverted "head and shoulders" suggesting higher prices for the near-term.
http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xautrend.gif3i. The trend is up for the XAU.
THE PATTERN IN GOLD SUGGESTS AN UPSIDE TARGET OF $725http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xau022007E.png3j. If gold stays above $660, the pattern would suggest an upside target of $730 over the next2-4 weeks. If it breaks below $660, the next support is at $650, and at $615.
THE PATTERN IN GOLD SUGGESTS AN UPSIDE TARGET OF $725http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xau022007F.png3k. If gold stays above $660, thispattern also would suggest an upside target of $730 over the next2-4 weeks. If it breaks below $660, the next support is at $650, and at $615.
4. Expected pricepatterns suggested by ourPattern Recognition Models.
Scenario#1 Copyright © 1999-2007, All rights reserved. Aegean Capital Group, Inc./Ike Iossif. Reproduction is strictly prohibited.http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xau1.png4a. Scenario#1: Expect a rally to 152-153,a decline to 114, andrally up to 205/210. If the pattern of the last six years is still intact, then the XAU will make contact with channel support before it starts amulti-week rally.Signs that this scenario may be unfolding, would be afailure around 153, followed by a close below 140 within 2-3 trading days. A close below 130 would provide confirmation.
Scenario#2 Copyright © 1999-2007, All rights reserved. Aegean Capital Group, Inc./Ike Iossif. Reproduction is strictly prohibited.http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xau2.png4b. Scenario#2: Expect a test of the 140-137 level2-3 times, each time rallying to a higher level. A close above 157, after 2-3 successful tests of support at 140-137 would indicate that this scenario is unfolding, a close above 175, would provide confirmation.
Scenario#3 Copyright © 1999-2007, All rights reserved. Aegean Capital Group, Inc./Ike Iossif. Reproduction is strictly prohibited.http://graphics.aegeancapital.com/pics/gld_extra/xau3.png4c. Scenario#3: Thisrepresentsa rather extreme bearish outcome, but it doesn't hurt tobe aware of it. Look for a rally above 155, followed by a close below 130 within 5-7 trading days. A close below 110 would provide confirmation that this is not a good time to be in gold stocks!
Copyright © 1999-2007, All rights reserved. Aegean Capital Group, Inc./Ike Iossif. Reproduction is strictly prohibited. *For thosereaders who are not familiar with our Yearly Reports on various market sectors, may want to read the previous YearlyReport on gold/gold stocks by visiting this link: XAU(2005/2006)
Below isthe "key" conclusionof that report, and the price patternsuggested by our pattern recognitionmodels.
"Ifgold and gold stocks remain in a bull market,the declinedown to89-84 zone ought to represent the last buying opportunity for gold and gold stocks, prior to a spectacular bullish acceleration. At this point in the bull market, If the XAU stays above 84 over the next 2-4 weeks and then it begins to accelerate to the upside,thenwe ought to see a risefrom its upcominglowsin the89-85 zone -in the next few weeks- to a high in the 155-165 zone by the end of the year, which will represent an 100% gain."
3-24-2005
http://www.aegeancapital.com/subscriberservices/weekly/extra/xau123105.png MANAGED ACCOUNTS DISCLOSURE: Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The firm has made no promises or guarantees that it will be able to match the results that it achieved in its model portfolios for any previous period. However, the strategy that will be employed in the client's account, will very much resemble the strategy employed in the management of the model portfolio. It should be understood, that a particular strategy/methodology which has provided positive returns in the past, may not provide similar returns in the future The firm emphasizes that its investment style is speculative and entails substantial risks. There can be no assurance that the client's investment objective will be achieved or that the firm's investment strategy will be successful at all. In particular, the firm's use of short sales and option transactions, in certain circumstances, could result in significant losses to the client's account. The client should consider this investment as a supplement to an overall investment program and should invest only if he/she is willing to undertake the risks involved. The client could lose some or all of the initial investment.
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FRACTAL FORECASTDefining The "Hidden Fractal Order" Within The Financial Markets
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STOCK FRACTALS
Defining The "Hidden Fractal Order" Within The Financial Markets
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剑道与股道(二)http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2006-08-26 06:36)
分类：《寒冰股市扯O集》
(接下面)
剑道与股道(一)http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2006-08-26 06:32)
分类：《寒冰股市扯O集》
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…
股市算个屁，谁也别装(2006-08-25 13:26)
分类：《瞎G8扯O集》
友情提示:粗口帖胆小淑女禁入
...看了韩寒博客上的那篇惊世之作“文坛算个屁，谁也别装逼”，“哈哈哈”我大笑不已。估计那姓白的文学评论家看了后可能会当场晕倒，不知道会不会不醒人事...
首次开通博客(2006-08-25 13:23)
今天是我首次开通博客,以后每天都要坚持在上面写点东西...
嗨！亲爱的朋友们，欢迎您光临我的BLOG(2006-08-25 13:20)
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我已经在新浪BLOG安家了，欢迎你时常过来做客，大家多多交流哦。我会把一些新鲜有趣的东西记录下来一块与你分享。也希望你记住我的BLOG地址，你可以把她添加到你的收藏夹，也可以把她复制下来告诉你的朋友们。
：）
我的BLOG地址：http://blog.sina.com.cn/u/1251497060
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-24 06:37 编辑 ]
大盘每日瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-23 15:28)
标签：股票 证券 财经 大盘 股市 杂谈分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
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《三国》巨头跟股市的关系(2009-04-23 13:34)
标签：证券 股票 a股市场 龟虽寿 曹操 娱乐分类：《转帖》
曹操：一贯看多股市，不分牛熊，常年满仓。《三国演义》在第一回介绍曹操时说“小字阿满”，就是常年满仓落下的外号。对蓝筹股回归A股市场有独到见解，著有《归虽瘦》等论文，原意乃是回归募不到多少钱的意思，被今人误传为《龟虽寿》。
刘备：操作稳健，精选个股，半仓。因常留有备用资金，靠精选个股获得收益，以“留备”字“选得”（玄德）著称于世。
孙权：热衷于炒权证，亏损。其父孙坚早有预见，为之起名为：损权，字中谋，一针见血地指出他以后会中了人家的计谋亏损于权证。
周瑜：空仓，持币观望，但很焦急。有词为证，苏东坡在《念奴焦.持币怀股》中写道：“人道是、三国周郎持币”……
大盘午盘瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-23 11:56)
标签：财经 大盘 股票 股市分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
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大盘每日瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-22 21:18)
标签：财经 大盘 股票 股市 杂谈分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
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大盘午盘瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-22 11:45)
标签：股票 财经 大盘 股市分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
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大盘每日瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-21 15:25)
标签：财经 大盘 股票 股市分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
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大盘午盘瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-21 11:49)
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[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-24 06:47 编辑 ]
大盘每日瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-20 15:32)
标签：股票 财经 大盘 股市分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
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关于势(2009-04-20 14:11)
标签：春夏秋冬 万物 颗粒 股票分类：《感悟或杂碎》
关于势。
比如——春夏秋冬，四季轮回。
春回大地万物复苏——播种下去，秋天就是一个收获的季节。
资金在“春天”这个季节中播种下去——收获是肯定的——因为顺大自然的势。
秋天播种——严冬一来，万物萧杀颗粒无收——逆大自然的势。
所以说资金不是万能的！光有资金是不够的！——还得顺势才能有为！
……
大盘午盘瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-20 11:50)
标签：财经 大盘 股票 股市分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
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大盘每日瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-17 15:29)
标签：财经 大盘 股票 股市分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
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大盘午盘瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-17 11:52)
标签：财经 大盘 股票 股市分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
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《非诚勿扰》经典对白(2009-04-16 22:36)
标签：非诚勿扰 经典对白 软柿子 笑笑 秦奋 娱乐分类：《转帖》
经典一：没说的，葛优的征婚广告
你要想找一帅哥就别来了，你要想找一钱包就别见了。硕士学历以上的免谈，女企业家免谈(小商小贩除外)，省得咱们互相都会失望。刘德华和阿汤哥那种才貌双全的郎君是不会来征你的婚的，当然我也没做诺丁山的梦。您要真是一仙女我也接不住，没期待您长得跟画报封面一样看一眼就魂飞魄散。外表时尚，内心保守，身心都健康的一般人就行。要是多少还有点婉约那就更靠谱了。我喜欢会叠衣服的女人，每次洗完烫平叠得都像刚从商店里买回来的一样。说得够具体了吧。自我介绍一下，我岁数已经不小了，留学生身份出去的，在国外生活过十几年，没正经上过学，蹉跎中练就一身生存技能，现在学无所成海外归来，实话实说，应该定性为一只没有公司、没有股票、没有学位的“三无伪海龟”。性格OPEN，人品五五开，不算老实，但天生胆小，杀人不犯法我也下不去手，总体而言属于对人群对社--会有益无害的一类。
有意者电联，非诚勿扰。
经典二：相亲一，来个了同志
秦奋：你这不是捣乱吗？我登的是征婚广告。
相亲者（冯远征饰）：：你的广告上没说男人免谈。
葛优：那不是废话吗？我又不是同性恋。
大盘每日瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-16 15:29)
标签：财经 大盘 股票 股市分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
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大盘午盘瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-16 11:45)
标签：财经 大盘 股市 股票分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
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大盘每日瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-15 15:33)
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大盘午盘瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-15 11:47)
标签：财经 大盘 股票 股市分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
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大盘每日瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-14 15:27)
标签：财经 大盘 股票 股市分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
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大盘午盘瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-14 11:59)
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博友太有才了！http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-13 22:23)
标签：杂谈分类：《踏雪随地大小便记》
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大盘每日瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-13 15:54)
标签：大盘 财经 股票 股市分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
http://static10.photo.sina.com.cn/bmiddle/4a985464x676b078dc9a9 http://static11.photo.sina.com.cn/bmiddle/4a985464x676b09930cca
大盘午盘瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-13 11:46)
标签：股票 大盘 股市 财经分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
http://static7.photo.sina.com.cn/bmiddle/4a985464x70bd8e9b5176http://static3.photo.sina.com.cn/bmiddle/4a985464x67679873e6a2
三毛一斤的书http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-11 21:31)
标签：收废 this 书柜 废纸 三毛 股票分类：《踏雪随地大小便记》
今天清理了一下书柜，几十斤的书回收了10元钱，赚钱真不容易啊！http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/images/face/002.gif
http://static9.photo.sina.com.cn/bmiddle/4a985464x674787fdd188
书都是9.5成新以上，有的书当年一下买俩本，看一本收藏一本，现在看来当年就是烧包一个。收废纸的阿姨只给我三毛一斤，据说收废站收八毛一斤，收废品的阿姨赚钱也太容易啊了吧！按我们炒股票来说近200%的利润啊——暴利啊！呵呵！
书房一角：
http://static15.photo.sina.com.cn/bmiddle/4a985464x70ba61d6186e
大盘每日瞎说 http://simg.sinajs.cn/blog/v5images/icon/picture.gif (2009-04-10 15:31)
标签：财经 股票 大盘 股市分类：《大盘每日瞎说》
http://static7.photo.sina.com.cn/bmiddle/4a985464x672e5db681c6http://static7.photo.sina.com.cn/bmiddle/4a985464x70b7d6390aa6http://static3.photo.sina.com.cn/bmiddle/4a985464x672e5e9a1bc2
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