Special Report Dow Jones Industrial Average
Primary Wave The Dow at 5 Degrees of Trend © ELLIOTT today, October 25,2006
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Figure 1
ELLIOTT Wave Analysis As shown in figure 1, the boundary lines of the expanding wedge have numerous "touch" points, and clearly govern the advance since October 2004, when Minor wave 4 bottomed at 9708. The lower trend line connecting the March 2003 low and the July 2006 low perfectly contains the rest of the price action right up to today.
Intermediate wave (3) ended on December 27, 2004 at 10,868 with a gain of 1160 points which is in classic Fibonacci proportion to the length of wave (1): 7197-9054= 1857. 1160/1857= 0.6246. Until that time the wave count seemed crystal clear since under the rules and guidelines of the Wave Principle a five-wave advance from the low of October 2002 could be counted as complete. However, after a slight decline the Dow registered a new highat 10,984 exceeding the supposed 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level measured from 11,908 to 7,197. The clear three-wave advance from the low of October 2004 raised some questions about the future trend of the market. Finally, the Dow held above the important psychological level at 10,000 and again started up. As you can see, Intermediate wave (4) slightly penetrated the dotted trend line drawn from the Minor wave 2 low but held comfortable above the lower trend line drawn from the Intermediate wave (2) low of March 2003. At the recent low of 10,683 the Dow touched that line to the minute and started its powerful advance in wave 5 of (5). At the high of May 10, 2006 at 11,670, the Dow again reached a Fibonacci wave length relationship which led to the conclusion that the top was in. At that high, the Dow gained 1670 points (10,000 to 11,670) or 16.7% which is 0.647 the length of the first wave (7197-9054). The clear three-wave decline however eliminated that count soon. As I said in my special report Dow Jones Industrial Average - Cycle Wave V posted on October 13, 2006, "The upper trend line of the diagonal triangle comes in at approximately DJIA 12066-12200 depending upon when it is reached." I should add, several target levels depending on which date one set the begin of Primary wave : 1705, 1726 or 1747.
Wave degree: (v) Minute wave , 5 Minor wave, (5) Intermediate wave, Primary wave ,
Cycle wave V
DJIA - Alternate Count
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Figure 2 Alternate Count The single biggest mistake that Elliotticians make with regard to a developing triangle is calling
an end to it too soon. In a typical plot of market prices, the boundary lines of a triangle rarely
contract at a rapid rate. When price boundaries do appear to be contracting rapidly, the triangle
is usually only in mid-formation, not at its end. Elliott Wave Principle explains: Many analysts are fooled into labeling a completed triangle way too early.
Triangles take time and go sideways. Now look at the triangle in wave position 4 from April 2005 to July 2006: The orthodox low of the triangle occurred at the April low at Dow 10,000 but wave (a) ended
at 10,186, the point that marks the emotionally low of the decline from 10,984 and exactly
matched the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the preceding advance from 9,708 to 10,984.
Upon real time observation, triangles often end at a 0.618 wave length subdivision of preceding
waves, though its not a rule, but a guideline. In this case, wave (e) of the triangle together with
wave 4 both ended at a 0.66 retracement, (2:3) on July 18, 2006 and since then a powerful
"thrust out of the triangle" fits the description of the recent surge to new all-time highs perfectly.
Interestingly enough, a measured move projects a target objective at around 12,353, based
on R.N.Elliott's observation that the wave following a triangle often travels the "widest part of
the triangle," which in this case is 1670. Measured from 10,186, a reasonable target is 12,167,
right in the forecasted target zone, outlined and updated before. Please see Special Report
Dow - Cylce Wave V, below. Related article: Dow 36,000 Dow 100,000
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Chart: stockcharts.com
Five waves form a complete bull market structure. The chart of the DJIA illustrates that from the
major low in December 1974 five waves of Primary degree can be counted. The chart also shows
that from the low of Intermediate wave (4) of October 2002 five Minor waves that form this
particular bull market appear nearly complete. There is still a good chance that the DJIA is
nearing the peak of a fifth wave of three degrees of trend: Intermediate wave (5), Primary wave and Cycle wave V, rather than only a small degree fifth wave that would lead to a correction, then still more new highs. This possibility has been featured several times with the (expanding) diagonal triangle count from the October 2004 resp. April 2005 lows. If this is the case, the bull market peak is imminent, and a severe collapse will occur upon its completion. The upper trend line of the diagonal triangle comes in at approximately DJIA 12066-12200 depending upon when it is reached. There is little doubt that if this count is in force, the market will peak soon, during the current rally phase that is completing the advance from August 2004 or April 2005. If it is in force, a very rapid change in sentiment would likely occur, bringing the majority to extreme bullishness. Additionally, the catalyst for the end would likely be a sharp decline in bond prices, which has not yet occurred but would likely under the abrupt-end scenario. This would be a very dangerous pattern since the Elliott diagonal triangle is the most bearish of all patterns when it occurs in the fifth wave position after an advance. The DJIA would then collapse back to the level at which the triangle began either at 9,708 or 10,000.
DJIA 1957 - 2006
Open chart: DJIA, May 12, 2006
Key To Stock Market Profits by Frost & Prechter
(Expanded Edition1990)Elliott Wave Principle >>>
Examples Elliott Wave analysis: On August 13,2005 Elltoday had this to say regarding the Nasdaq Composite:
" The stock market is technically in its weakest condition since the first quarter of 2005. The wave pattern indicates termination of the rally, cycles have topped and momentum measures reveal glaring thinnes, divergence and non-confirmation. Sentiment indicators reflect a bullish euphoria among traders. EW analysis of the Nasdaq Composite Index came to pass. The market turned down after reaching the upper boundary line drawn above the previous highs as forecasted many times before. ML-1 points to prices below 2000 and we will see how the waves unfold." The Wave Principe shouted a warning in late July 2005. The powerfully bearish combination of an ongoing diagonal triangle in the Nasdaq Composite Index, high flying internet stocks like Google and Yahoo hadn't been seen since 1999. Following that peak, the Nasdaq Composite fell in wave (ii) some 50% in two months. The bearish potential at the high of August 2005 was further recognized at the time because the rally fulfilled observations with resprect to the Mid Line Technique, which states, "prices will reach the latest ML" and "when prices reverse before reaching the ML, leaving a space, they will move more in the opposite direction than when prices were rising toward the ML." A look at the chart reveals, that this is exactly what happened: prices stopped near ML-2 and moved in the opposite direction. Needless to say, wave (ii) held above 2000 and more important well above the ML-3. Late October 2005 started the near vertical upswing in wave (iii) with a gap on the chart in wave iii of (iii), a typical occurrence. As can be clearly seen on the chart, in November prices reached the rising ML-4 and touched that line three times, before falling slightly below 2200. The last "gasp" rally completed a five-wave advance and marked wave (iii) on the chart. Again, prices reached exactly the ML-4 before turning down. Wave (iv) traced out a simple a-b-c
zigzag correction satisfying the rule of alternation with wave (ii) which traced out a more complex correction, a double zigzag. As I see it, the market entered wave (v) of c of (y) which should exceed the top of wave (iii) by a substantial margin. Since wave (iii) is not allowed to be the smallest wave in a five-wave sequence, wave (v) must be shorter than wave (iii). A possible (reasonable) target would be a 33% retracement of the decline from 2000 to 2002, which in this case would be 2437. NASDAQ Composite Fibonacci Everywhere
© ELLIOTT today, November 2007
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"A strong close today is going to be suggestive of a strong year," said ....(msn)
As you can see on the chart, the NASDAQ Composite
stands there where it was in February 2007 !!
Presumed Mechanical Determinants of Market Movements
A variant of the approach that assumes society is a machine is the idea that the stock market is a
machine. If it is running properly, the implied idea seems to go, then prices rise. If prices fall, the machine
is broken. The trick, then, is to identify the weak cogs every now and then and fix them. The crash of 1987
was such a storm of mass emotion that it caused "market as machine" theorists to work overtime explaining
the drop and figuring out how to "fix" the system. The theory that gained the most credence was that the
crash was caused by so-called portfolio insurance computer programs, which in essence sold stocks as
the market went lower. This process presumably fed upon itself. Unfortunately for the theory, it does not
explain very well why markets around the world crashed simultaneously or why the decline stopped.
it is an utter loss to explain why many indexes around the world that had no computer trading fell further
than the DJIA. (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999, Robert R.Prechter) Please see Weekly Update © ELLIOTT today, October 13, 2007 Special Report, NASDAQ Composite Index, © ELLIOTT today, October13 2007
The Alltime-HighNASDAQ Composite© ELLIOTT today
July 2000 A classic 61.8 % Fibonacci Retracement
NASDAQ Composite
Long Term
(c) ELLIOTT today, January 14, 2006
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A Wall of Worry? "MoreRally on!" "For the first time since June 7, 2001, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 11,000." "Techs power the market to new gains." "The strength is real. The Nasdaq index has risen for seven straight days." "A strong close today is going to be suggestive of a strong year," said ....(msn) Back in October 2004, shortly after the low of wave (x), ELLtoday noted "the entire structure formed by the market looks like a "Leading Expanding Wedge." Like leading diagonal triangles (Type 2), this pattern is bullish. The structure of this formation does fit the spirit of the Wave Principle in that the five-wave subdivisions in the direction of the larger trend communicate a continuation message as opposed to the "termination" implication of the three-wave subdivisions in the standard diagonal triangle. Leading diagonal triangles occur in wave A or 1, meaning after a correction, the market should resume its uptrend, at least for the time being." From the low of wave (x) the market's strong rally in the second half of 2004 ended with the top of January 4, 2005, labeled wave a. The ensuing correction is best counted as an a-b 1-2-3-4-5/c pattern completing wave b. Wave c formed an overlapping structure typically of an ending diagonal triangle for wave c. Diagonal triangles are phenomena which are found at the termination points of larger patterns, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement. Diagonal triangles take a wedge shape within two converging lines, with each subwave, including the impulse waves, subdividing into threes. A rising wedge is bearish and is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to the level where the diagonal triangle began.(EWP , p.31) The near term picture at least calls for a decline into the 2000s in the first quarter of 2006.
NASDAQ Composite Forecast of May 29, 2005 http://www.elliott-today.com/images/nasdaq11_small.gif On July 5,2005, ELLtoday came to this conclusion on the picture regarding the NASD Composite:
”On April 29,2005 the market touched the 2x1 support line andimmediately shot up
in an Elliott five-wave
advance to 2100 completing wave (a). The recentaction looks corrective in nature but I doubt it will be all of wave (b). A more complex correctionmay take the NASD eventually back to near the 2000 level completing wave (b) and then a powerfull rally in wave (c) of 5 will carry the index to new post 2003 highs.”
The Nasdaq Comp at that time traced out an expanded flat for wave c and “shot up in a powerfull rally in wave (c ) of 5”, as forecasted. One more leg up is needed to complete a five-wave structure. The internal wave structure supports the outlook for an ending diagonal triangle for wave C. EWP, p.31: “Diagonal triangle take wedge shape within two converging lines, with each subwave, including the impulse waves, subdividing into a ‘three’. A rising wedge is bearish and is usually followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to the level where the diagonal triangle began.”
The chart displays the labeling almost unchanged from July 5,2005. Sentiment is extremely “confident” as the bullish percentage jumped to 53% over the last weekend, the highest bullish figure since 1999. (Source:The Lowrisk.com) As a contrarian, high bullish percentage reading spell trouble ahead. Diagonal triangles are moderately rare phenomena, occurring a bit less often than corrective horizontal triangles which develop in fourth wave positions of impulse waves and “B” wave positions in corrective waves. Occasionally diagonal triangles ends with a spike of relatively high volume on the final day or hour.
As a guideline, whether it comes out is another question, a 0.786 multiple of wave 3 points to 2235, slightly above the upper trendline.
NASDAQ Composite
© ELLIOTT today,October 10,2004 Leading Wedge?
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The entire structure formed by the market looks like a "Leading Expanding Wedge." Like leading diagonal triangles (Type 2), this pattern is bullish. The structure of this formation does fit the spirit of the Wave Principle n that the five-wave subdivisions in the direction of the larger trend communicate a continuation message as opposed to the "termination" implication of the three-wave subdivisions in the standard diagonal triangle. Leading diagonal triangles occur in wave A or 1, meaning after
a correction, the market should resume its uptrend, at least for the time being. This chartcontains information that we reserve for subscribers.So please understand, that the whole Elliott Wave count cannot be displayed. None of these stocks are buy or sell recommendations. There is a high degree of risk in trading.>>>INFO NASDAQ Composite
© ELLIOTT today,October 10,2004
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Nasdaq Comp.,10/10/04. The August 22 forecast called for the Nasdaq Composite's next move: "A pullback to the broken ML is possible since the 2000 level marks a .618 Fibonacci retracement of the whole structure from top to bottom." On October 6,2004 the Nasdaq made an intraday high of 1971,04 and turned down. TimeZone did a pretty good job as October 6 is 53 calender days from the August low, the same length in time as March 24 to May 17 and 0.618 times the distance from May to August. Amazingly the same Fibonacci relationship occurred from the April high to the most recent high on October 6,2004, since 69 x 2.618 gives 180 . This chartcontains information that we reserve for subscribers.So please understand, that the whole Elliott Wave count cannot be displayed. None of these stocks are buy or sell recommendations. There is a high degree of risk in trading.>>>INFO NASDAQ Composite
© ELLIOTT today,September 10,2004 "Watching the ML's"
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NASDAQ Composite, 9/10/2004.So far in 2004, ELLIOTT today anticipated the January peak, the April peak, the June peak and the May low to the hour. Last month's forecast called for a "pullback to the broken ML " based on sound reason "since the 2000 level marks a .618 Fibonacci retracement of the whole structure from top to bottom." We added: "A failure to reach that point would favor the prefered count." That forecast still stands as the wave structure looks incomplete. The short term labeling displayed in the last two issues which would best allow for a move to the next resistance line is shown above. The alternate count shown on August 22,2004 labels the entire correction from January toAugust as a double three with wave x forming a flat from the late March low to the high in June. Either way, the upper channel line of ML-1 points slightly to below 1900 and ML-2 points to 1930-1950 depending on the time frame. A 50% retracement of the entire decline this year lies at 1952.
NASDAQ Composite
© ELLIOTT today,August 22,2004 A Look At The Longer Term Chart
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NASDAQ Composite, 8/22/2004.
In the past few weeks, there has been a lot of focus on weak techs, surging oil prices and terrorism. The NASDAQ broke the trendline which connected the previous lows by a margin and bottomed (for the time being) five points above a .382 Fibonacci retracement level measured from low to top. Another important occurrence was the gap left on 1809 which marks another .382 Fibonacci retracement level . Both corrections (!?) display Fibonacci harmonics [.618]. Uncertainty remains high since the wave count allows several different labeling. The weak point in the prefered count remains in fact the question regarding wave 2. Is it a five or a three? The weak point in the second best count remains wheather the recent decline is a five or a three? So what? As I see it, the decision points are the recent low, to be sure, and the form
of the current upswing. A pullback to the broken ML is possible since the 2000 level marks a .618 Fibonacci retracement of the whole structure from top to bottom. A failure to reach that point would favor the prefered count.
NASDAQ Composite
© ELLIOTT today,August 19,2004 Update August 19,2004
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NASDAQ Composite,8/19/2004. The total net decline is -404 points or 18.75% YTD. 404 points is .625 of the first decline labeled Minor wave 1 or a. The high on June 30 is exactly .618 of Minor wave 1 or b: 257 x .618 = 158,82. 1897 + 158,82 = 2055,82. Of great interest is the internal breakdown of the decline from June 30: Minute wave (i) lost -185 points and a Fibonacci .618 retracement of that decline would call for a target of 1984 which is right on track with ML-3. On the other hand, if wave c of (ii) travels 2.618 of wave a the next reasonable target would be 1873 slightly below Minor wave 1 of 1897. The most bearish count labels the whole decline from June 30,2004 as Minute wave (i) and the recent correction as Minute wave (ii). Here too, ML-3 provides resistance, as a .618 retracement of Minor wave (i) points to 1938.
ExamplesForecast of May 28 !NASDAQ Composite, 5/28/2004
© ELLIOTT today,May 28,2004
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NASDAQ Composite, May 28,2004. Recall the chart of May 16,2004. The announced area has been reached. 2043 marks the Fibonacci .62 level of 2153-1865. ML-2 points to 2050. Next week the NASD may stage a last gasp rally and thereafter the market should loose ground. ELLIOTT today on March 26,2004: Nasdaq Composite, March 26,2004. "Short Term Bottom..." The Nasdaq Composite reached the area of the previous fourth wave of one lesserdegree, which in this case is Intermediate wave (4). On January 30, ELLIOTT today, announced that level, noting "the primary-degree-trendline now comes in at 2000 and real support is 1880-1900, the area of Intermediate wave (4). If You will recall, that forecast still was two months ago and as You can see, the Nasdaq met this level almost to the minute!
NASDAQ Composite (c) ELLIOTT today, January 3,2004http://www.elliott-today.com/images/nasdaq7_small1.gif
chart: tradesignal.com
NASDAQ Composite, January 3,2004: The NASDAQ C. so far is essentially +100 points above
the high of September 2003 and almost near important resistance: Our last issue to subscribers pointed
out "Wave (c) now in progress, would be expected to carry the Nasdaq C. to near 2098 resistance." The chart of October 19,2003, as you can see, "got the picture." Wave (c) has now reached Fibonacci proportion to wave (a): Wave (a): 1108-1521 = +413 points or 37,27%. Wave (b): 1253-2022= +769 points or 61,73%. The ratio - guess what ? - is .603 . Now look at the chart of December 13,2003 below: The upper trendline pointed exactly to yesterday's high at 2022.These developments are remarkable enough, but there is more: Wave (i) gained +13,32% and wave (v) traveled +13,85%. Wave (iii) traveled +566 points or 42,87%, which is 3.236 times the length
of wave (i) and/or wave (v). The sum of the percentage gains of wave (i) and wave (v) are 26,87% and
that number is .626 of the length of wave (iii), which is 42,87% .The mathematical Fibonacci relationships achieved by the market is satisfying the "rule of equality", in an unorthodox manner. This "rule" is Elliott's observation that when a third wave is extended, the first and fifth waves "tend toward equality in time and magnitude" . With regard to time, the "rule" is NOT fulfilled.
DISCLAIMERThe material is ONLY PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES AND PAPER TRADING.The recommendations are for paper trading to develop your skills for real time trading. If you can make profits in paper trading, and wish to trade real time with real money and need assistance, then seek help from a qualified financial advisor. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
The material does not recommend or otherwise imply that any trading position be taken, which is,and only can be initiating trader's decision and responsibility. I am not a registered financial advisor - and cannot give such advice.
The charts, forecasts, and information are for educational purposes to demonstrate the predictive success of this type of market analysis. As such, it is primarily a teaching tool. Any signals given to buy or sell are for demonstration of the method and are NOT trading instructions or any sort. If you do not agree to these terms then do not accept and cancel this instruction tool. The author does not take any on responsibility for your trading success or failure. Payment of fees acknowledges that you have accepted and understand these terms. This information is not available free. If you have obtained this without payment, you have an illegal copy and are an illegal user. The information on this report is copyright. elliott-today - riding the waves with confidence
http://www.elliott-today.com/images/socion2.jpg Socionomics: Market Psychology Those are familiar with Socionomics will have an idea what the main arguments against any further decline not to speak of an end of the "great rally" from March 2003 will be. Speculative environments come along at most only once in a generation, as a horde of new, inexperienced players is then available to descend upon the stock market scene. Members of the general
public are always latecomers to the market's party, and because of skepticism and rationality
at the door. Today, the public because of its naivete has adopted the same chutzpah as the professionals. Television commentators, newspaper columnists and university professors, who
are nonprofessional members of the public, have been presenting themselves as market advisors. After all, it is easy to say, "buy and hold", why shouldn't they? One of our subscribing money managers who recently adopted a bearish stance on the market heard from a client who called to say, "A short position is so foolish that my 12-year old boy could trade better." That may be a true statement, but when it is a true statement, the market's long-established trend is near a reversal. I label this attitude with the oxymoron "aggressive complacencey," which I feel describes the arrogance and even vehemence with which some people express their disdain for caution.
The public has felt safe in throwing billions of dollars of its discretionary investment capital and pension fund money at stock fund managers under the presumption that professionals know what they are doing and will handle the money correctly. the managers have simply put all the money into stocks, because in the narrow field of stock picking, they may know what they are doing, but in the market analysis field, they do not. In the aggregate, professionals experience is exactly that of the stock market. Fund managers are people too, and in the aggregate they become optimistic at market tops and pessimistic at bottoms. Long time technicians remember the famous Barron's headline of January 1973, "Not a Bear Among Them," which summed up institutional investor's optimism at the onset of the biggest stock market drop in 36 years. Today the situation is repeated. (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999 by Robert R. Prechter)
The Science of History and Social Prediction
The Science of History and Social Prediction spells out a historical correlation between patterned shifts in social mood and their most sensitive register, the stock market. It also presents engaging essays -- representing over 20 years worth of research -- correlating social mood trends to music, sports, corporate culture, peace, war and macroeconomic trends. (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, 1999 by Robert R. Prechter)
More about Socionomics A Socionomic Manifesto Men have tried for millennia to forecast human events. In the long history of social forecasting, the chronic propensity for immense error has resulted from linear thinking, the extrapolation of current trends into the Future. http://www.elliott-today.com/images/socion8.jpg This nearly ubiquitous approach is a result of the assumption that laws governing billiard ball behavior apply to human behavior. Simply stated, most people, including economists, are social mechanists. They believe that markets and societies share the property of an object in motion, which will continue along a calculable path until some new outside influence – a force or an obstruction – alters its trajectory. It remains a source of amazement to me how often I am asked what events will cause (or, in modified form, what “catalyst”
will “precipitate”) a change in the direction of the market, politics or the economy, a query which has as its basis the unquestioned assumption that the record of human history is somehow at the mercy of random outside influences, such as earthquakes, volcanoes and floods but with regard
to one presumed social influence over another presumed social effect. Yet social forces cannot be “outside influences” because they reside within the human social experience, in which all elements are interrelated. The general assumption of outside causality nevertheless persists and has as its result the continuing bizarre state of affairs in which most people involved in areas of life where the future is important waste hours debating the various potential “causes” of the trends they hope to predict. They usually conclude that forecasting with any reliability is impossible, yet they persist in the exercise anyway! Successfull anticipation of future events is possible. However, it is possible only with the knowledge that human behavior changes as a result not of external forces but of internal ones.Generally speaking, the human mind has two aspects, which impel two types of actions. Rational, conscious mental processes can induce actions that create airplanes, computers and skyscrapers. Unconscious mental Processes do not produce goods and services but rather generate hard-wired emotional signals that trigger impulsive actions. These emotional signals developed through eons of evolution, which is why they impel all kinds of actions with respect to concerns that are common to lower animals, such as territorialism, fighting, fleeing and sex. (The production of art probably involves both mental aspects, which is why it provides the richest experiences.) One of the unconscious mind’s occupations is increasing the changes of survival through mimicking, which is reflected in the herding impulse, a fact that provides a biological and psychological basis for socionomics.Conventional economists have been mired in the error that trends in finance result from the exercise of the first type of thinking: the rational and the conscious. It is a false premise, which has just begun to be undermined. In twenty years, academic economists have gone from believing that markets are rational, efficient calculators of intrinsic value – and therefore random – to believing that psychology occasionally might have something to do with extremes in short term financial valuation. Someday, a large segment of the profession will surely come to understand that a mix of randomness and psychology is not the answer to overall financial market behavior. At the forefront of the new understanding is the Chairman of Psychiatry at Metro West Medical Center (Boston), Dr. John Schott, who is also an instructor at Harvard and Tufts medical schools and a successful money manager. Even on the subject of practical investing for the individual, he states unequivocally. “Emotions are central, they are the entire ball game.” Emotions are certainly the entire ball game for many individuals, so that as a rare few investors’ individually informed and rational decisions cancel each other out, what remains on the stock market graph is a record of the trends of shared emotion, the mood of the herd.It is not in the social nature of mankind to accept and be content with stasis. If there is one constant regarding social mood, it is its continuous flux. However, the fact that social mood is ever-changing is not, as many would assume, an impediment to forecasting; it is the key to it. Investigations by R.N.Elliott in the 1930s and 1940s yielded the crucial knowledge that social behavior changes not randomly but according to a pattern. Social mood, experiences and conditions vary from time to time and place to place, the patterns of behavior that lead to a reversal
in trend do not. In order successfully to anticipate changes in society reliably, one must understand the consistent pattern of society’s internal dynamics. (Pioneering Studies in Socionomics, 2003 by Robert R.Prechter ,Jr.)Socionomics 2009
The School of Hard Knocks
Stock markets shifted from usual up-down-up rhythm of a bull market back in 1997 to something bigger and more exciting - a straight-up run in prices that is most magnificent of all market animals. It's called a mania.Manias are rare episodes when ever-higher prices create a carnival atmosphere in the financial realm that eventually moves outward to society itself. An extreme, self-reinforcing optimism marks financial manias. This unremitting optimism makes people believe in a new era of uninterrupted economic growth and leads them to demand luxuries of all kinds.By studying past mania experiences, traders can gain valuable insight into the collective emotions that drive their markets. It's possible to make significant money in the advancing stages of a mania with no knowledge of its existence. But there is nothing like recognizing a mania for what it is in real time to help a trader keep those gains and deal the relentlss crash after it peaks. "It never comes gently," Galbraith said, and it "is always accompanied by a desperate and largely unsuccessful effort to get out."
http://www.elliott-today.com/images/socion11.gif
"Most economists still predict continued economic growth for the rest of the year and into 2008."
This article is an excerpt from the Weekly Update of September 1,2007,© ELLIOTT today, September 1, 2007
Stocks Fall Sharply on Credit Concerns
Dow Drops Below 10,000 for First Time Since 2004
Stocks tumbled on Wall Street and around the world and oil fell below $90 on Monday as the banking crisis expanded its grip on the world economy. New York Times, Oct 6, 2008
Dow Drops 400 Points to Below 10000 Amid Global Selloff
WSJ, Oct 6, 2008
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Lehman-Drama: Peinlich für die Analysten
Die Probleme der Investmentbank werfen ein unvorteilhaftes Licht auf die Analystenzunft. Die meisten hochbezahlten Experten empfahlen die Aktie des Brokerhauses bis vor kurzem noch zum Kauf. Jetzt rücken sie vom Urteil ab - viel zu spät. FTD, Sept 13,2008
Professional brokerage-house equity-allocation strategists
tend to recommend a heavy weighting in stocks just before
the market falls and a lighter weighting just before the market advances. This is normal behavior, which itself helps to set
the market's highs and lows.
(Conquer The Crash, 2003, Robert R. Prechter)
For the first time in 25 Years, the Dow penetrated its own long term Cycle trendline to the downside!
Think about it.
The main task of an Elliott analyst is to recognize when one pattern is ending, and therefore when the next is beginning. The most basic application of The Wave Principle rests with a recognition of completed forms and an understanding of the current position of the market within whatever pattern is then in progress. From that understanding, the analyst can list probably paths of the market, project to some degree price behavior and device strategy for profiting from the most likely outcomes while protecting against the less likely. With such knowledge and with these skills, the accomplished Elliott Wave analyst can , and does, beat the market.
Elliott Wave International
Chart DJIA
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Applying Socionomics to Individual Experiences
in Social Realm
Anticipating tue Peak in a Public Persona from ist Waves
Financial gurus are a social phenomenon like pop stars, which makes their fates somewhat forecastable. Even though one may not have charts of superstars' waves handy, sometimes events are so extreme as to serve as a top signal. However, just because someone receives an award does not mean that this person is peaking, and just because he is the subject of a negative article does not mean that this persona is bottoming.To serve as such a signal, an event must truly be an extreme social assessment of value.I (Robert R.Prechter jr.) have made two forecasts on this basis. In 1992 , Elaine Garzarelli's image was so attractive that she began appearing on television in panty hose commercials.On January 31,1992, I presented the following assessment of her persona:Based on the typical progression, I would conclude that 1992 will witness the peak in herheroic public image, and the media will begin to shift focus toward some of her errors. It is the same natural flow of social psychology that produces bull and bear markets. Within a few months, the press savaged her money management results, and her firm lether go. Chapter 15 discussed the wave positioning of pop music superstars. Michael Jackson enjoyed a long superstardom, which led to an extreme event that signaled the reversal of his persona. Here is my assessment from March 28, 1991:It would be reasonable to assume that the astounding value of the contract that Mr.Jackson signed with Sony on March 19, as noted in the article that follows, is a sign of a peak in his valuation."Jackson hits billion-dollar note" ,USA Today, March 21, 1991
Within a year of that event , Jackson's image began slipping. Reviews of his record besame mixed to critical, and his sister ridiculed hin in public. That was wave A down. Then campe a wave B bounce, when Jackson performed for the Super Bowl halftime show in January 1993.By the end of the year, his image was collapsing in a powerful wave C. The list of indignities that year is stunning. He was accused of child molestation. An estranged sibling and fired former employees (paid to appear on tabloid TV shows) were alleging conduct suggestive of guilt. He was hospitalized with a drug problem. He had to cancel the remainder of a world tour. Two major companies terminated their commerical relationships with him. He was Süd for millions by promoters for cutting short his tour. He was sued for millions by two songwriters who claimed he stole their material. A high profile university reneged on giving him a prestigious award. Police ordered pictures of his genitals to verify testimony, and it was rumored that they were being peddled to publications. Certainly his behavior in those months, good or bad, had not changed; it was the public's focus that changed. Moreover, whether Jackson actually committed wrongdoing that warrants the collaps of his image is irrelevant to the dynamic. Unlike most, the following newspaper comments actually stated his situation quite accurately. The self-proclaimed king of pop has enjoyed a lucrative reign, but that kingdom is eroding and in danger of collapse. In rushing to exploit dubious evidence of wrongdoing (Jackson reading Child magazine, for instance) , the media seem oblivous to the concept of presumed innocence. Is this rush to judgement fair? Probably not, but you can't expect restraint when the stakes are so high and the drama so gripping. A loved musical hero of children is a confessed drug addict and suspected child molester. A global icon may retreat from view forever. Guilty or not, Jackson is a tragedy unfolding. If the boy's story builds up, if a jury convicts him, we'll witness a fall from grace as indelible as Richard Nixon's. Both involve admired men empowered by the trust of millions. No Hollywood scandal compares. (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, Robert R.Prechter jr., 1999, p.314)
Garzarelli for GuruIt has come to light hat New York Analyst Elaine Garzarelli was blamed by some Clients for causing tue October 16 Crash because she sent out bearish warnings tue previous week. Elaine clearly is bright, she has put in the time and effort to know what she is talking about, and she has the guts to say so. Elaine has my vote for Guru. (The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior, Robert R.Prechter, 1999, p.320)
Star banker replaces Cayne as Bear Stearns CEO
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bear Stearns Cos Inc on Tuesday turned to its star investment banker, Alan Schwartz, to replace James Cayne as chief executive and revive the company's badly damaged mortgage franchise. Yahoo.com, Jan 9,2008
Wall Street's Buyout Stars Keep Fleeing
Bear Stearns, Citigroup As the head of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s banking unit that Covers private-equity firms, John Coyle was at the red-hot center of the buyout boom. Now, in tue midst of the bust, he has jumped ship to join a former client, private-equity firm Permira.The 42-year-old banker is not alone. He is joining top bankers from UBS AG, Bear Stearns Cos. and Citigroup Inc. that are taking jobs at private-equity firms. After the several golden years of negotiating multibillion-dollar deals, the bankers face the unpleasant situation of toiling at big investment banks during a downturn.
Goldman Replaces Cohen as Forecaster
Abby Joseph Cohen, one of the most prominent voices of the bull market during the 1990s, has been replaced as Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s main forecaster of short-term market moves.WSJ, Mar 18,2008WSJ, Feb 29,2000:
"We may need to boost our expectations for this year... Fundamentals remain quite good. The economy is generating jobs and generating profits, and doing it without inflation."
"I think there will be a serious correction. I don't know when it will start, but it will go down for a while. But I've had that view for a while and tue market keeps on going higher. You come to believe that the traditional historical warning signals just don't worry any more."WSJ, March 20,2000: Byron R. Wien, chief U.S. investment strategist, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
The Maestro
Alan Greenspan's Job Just Got a Lot Tougher
WSJ, April 17, 2000
Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan ohne of the premier magnets of bull market veneration, appears to have a role to play, too. Greenspan's public image at the time of the bullmarket was called "Maestro" and was called 'the real president of the United States.' In February , right at the high, Greenspan was feted as the "2007 American Hero." But after the market fell and he offered negative assessments on the economy and the potential spread of the suprime lending debacle, Greenspan caught flak. "Who Thinks Greenspan Should Pipe Down?" says one representative headline. A March 1 USA Today editiorial ran his picture under one of Mayberry deputy Barney Fife. On Capital Hill, where the usual post-bubble blame game is revving up, Greenspan is a favorite target. Senators and congressman charge Greenspan with a "pattern of neglect" that fostered the unfolding crisis. Instead of riding off into the sunset, Greenspan stayed to bask in the glory of the final highs. Recall that in December 1996 Alan Greenspan's initial observation about irrational excitement on the part of investors produced a sharp market decline. It wasn't until January 2000 that a similar warning fell on deaf ears. When the Dow rallied to a January 14, 2000 high, tue February 2000 EWFF observed the nonchalance and stated that the public's willingness "to completely ignore the sincere concerns of Alan Greenspan, the foremost financial hero of the bull market" signaled that "its potential to experience tragedy is now fully formed." In early December 2006, stocks rallied straight through the 10th anniversary observance of Alan Greenspan's original remarks. A belief in a "more rational" irrational exuberance parallels 2000's lack of concern. The same complacency opens the door to a similar market response.
A Fund Behind Astronomical Losses
The trading strategy of a little-known hedge fund run by an astronomy buff contributed to billions in losses on Wall Street, even as the fund itself profited from the subprime-mortgage crisis.Magnetar Capital, founded in 2005 by a former star trader of Citadel Investment Group, left its mark in another way. Many of the mortgage securities that collapsed in recent months were named for stellar constellations. Magnetar, named for a neutron star with a powerful magnetic field that is a remnant of a supernova, was their common link. WSJ, January 14,2008
Economy in U.S. Probably Contracted Most Since 1982 as Spending Collapsed The worst credit crisis since the Great Depression sent the U.S. economy into a tailspin at the end of 2008 as consumers and businesses retrenched, reports this week may show. Bloomberg, Jan 25,2009
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Obama's Rush to Save America's Banks
Is the creation of a huge "aggregator" bank the right approach? Barron's, Jan 25,2009
Obama Plans Fast Action to Tighten Financial Rules
Officials say they will make wide-ranging changes, including stricter federal rules for hedge funds, credit rating agencies and mortgage brokers. New York Times, Jan 25,2009
Cashing In On Obama Around the World
Time Magazine, Jan 25,2009
As Sales Plunge, Car Dealers Struggle to Survive
(NEW ORLEANS) — At this year's version of the National Automobile Dealers Association convention, survival has passed maximizing profits as the focus of the annual event.
The Carmakers’ Bleak Year-End Numbers
Auto Sales Plummet, Worsening Crisis
Chrysler Eyes New Global Strategy
So as thousands of dealers from across the U.S. gathered Saturday in New Orleans, they were greeted by workshops entitled "Selling up in a down economy: Taking the bull by the horns" and "Tough times, tougher dealers: Saving your dealership's assets." Time Magazine, Jan 29,2009
Freddie Mac to ask Treasury for billions
in additional funds Barron's , Jan 25, 2009
DAVOS 2009
Economic avalancheThe corporate elite will no longer be the stars of the show at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland Barron's , Jan 25, 2009
Economy in free fall in fourth quarter
Worst quarter since early 1980s, and more to comeJan. 25, 2009WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy contracted violently in the fourth quarter, with gross domestic product falling at its fastest pace in more than 25 years, economists said ahead of what promises to be a grim week of economic news. Barron's, Jan 25,2009
John Thain, then and now
WSJ ,23 Jan 2009
Related article:
The Fall of (A) World Hero(s) Article>>>
The Spirit of Davos
The Davos Man is supposed to be gracious and civil.
Not this year.Friday, Jan. 30, 2009.Gazakrieg-Podium
Erdogan sorgt für Rieseneklat
in Davos Beim Weltwirtschaftsgipfel in Davos ist es zu einem Eklat gekommen.
Der türkische Ministerpräsident Erdogan hat den israelischen Präsidenten
Peres massiv angegriffen und anschließend wutentbrannt das Podium zur
Diskussion über den Gazakrieg verlassen. Zuvor schimpfte er:
"Sie töten Menschen." Welt de. , Jan 30,2009DAVOS 2009Economic avalanche
The corporate elite will no longer be the stars of the show at the World
Economic Forum in Switzerland Barron's , Jan 25, 2009Buried in the economic avalanchePolicy makers to hold balance of power in DavosMarketWatch
Jan. 23, 2009Comments: LONDON (MarketWatch) -- A global economic crisis won't be enough to keep CEOs and high-flying financiers away from the helipads in Davos next week, but the corporate elite will no longer be the stars
of the show when the World Economic Forum's yearly retreat for top executives, economists and politicians gets under way high in the Swiss Alps.A crippled financial system and the threat of the deepest global downturn since the Great Depression have changed the equation, participants and observers say. "This is not just another Davos," said Andy Stern, president of the Service Employees International Union, the large and powerful American labor union. A regular foe of private-equity firms and an advocate of tougher
regulation of businesses and markets, Stern will make his first trek to the mountain resort for the annual gathering. Stern said he hopes the current economic turmoil will result in a "humbling and mind-opening moment" for many of the forum's regular attendees. "These experts have failed the citizens of the globe. They have wrought economic havoc with financial manipulation, greed and deregulation," he said, in a telephone interview. "I don't know if it will do any good, but there is a need for straight talk and ending the backslapping, self-congratulatory noblesse-oblige attitude that I think has been more prevalent in the past."
Socionomics explains:
Making History:
An Interview with Film Director
David Edmond Moore
David Edmond Moore of Eyekiss Films in Atlanta recently completed a documentary on socionomics titled History's Hidden Engine, which is freely available for viewing or download at www.socionomics.net/films/history/.
http://www.elliott-today.com/images/socion9.gif
STOCK FRACTALSDefining The "Hidden Fractal Order" Within The Financial Markets
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Thursday, November 10th
Wednesday, November 9th
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/top_bottom_cme.jpg
Tuesday, November 8th
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Monday, November 7th
Last Week was a fractal inspired rally ..This week themarkets will mildly correct ......... to form another rally base.We have to wait and see the "Degree" and Amplitude" of the decline.When a Similarity appears with or with a bar confirmation --- this will be the trigger.
CME up again 2 points this morning Another Google here ?Notice the bar bottom on the chart !I don't see a top yet on the stock
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/cme_november_7th.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/nstk_11_07_05.jpg
Friday, November 4th CME Update : 2:59 pm Up 7 points to 381
CME continues its rally today
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/cme_climbs.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/cme_rockets.jpg
Maybe ? http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/maybe_rhat.jpg
Thursday, November 3rd12:56 pm Update on CME
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Wednesday, November 2nd
2:59 pm Update ... CME breaks out !
2:34 pm update :CME went from 369 to currently 373 !Wow
Goog has a possible 5 bar 2 hr top near 381
Waiting for a confirmation...... for a "bottom" Notice the bottom at 3:00 pm yesterday
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/cme_110205.jpg
Wednesday, October 19thThursday, October 13th
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/GCF.jpg
The portfolio is far ahead of the SPXfrom its inception. The S&P is down over 5 % since September.Cash is King for the moment.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_october_13th.jpg
Tuesday, October 11th
RHAT broke down today - just as the fractalsuggested.
GM also is on target to get to the 24 area.
GOOG broke decisively below its 20 day ma today and should test the 50 day
ma (currently @298) before earnings announcement next week Thursday.
Someone on the Elliottwave forum suggested a minor Bradley date of 10-17 as
a possible turn date of some sort.Could be a low of some kind -also
corresponds with options expiration week - which could give the market some
fuel for a rally.
Monday, October 10thFriday, October 7thIOTN surges ahead
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/iotn_taarget.jpg
Gary Lammert
Today's Entry into the Laboratory Notebook Investigating the Possibility That
Equity Valuation Fractal Evolution Precisely Represents Macroeconomic Activity.
Five hundred billion, 500,000,000,000. That's approximately
how much the Wilshire lost in two and one half days of trading before
Thursday's late growth fractal. The current ideal fractal devolution
involves about 66 more trading days to a low. At this pace that would
result in a negative valuation for the Wilshire - and just as
negative numbers do not exist in nature, a negative valuation,
likewise, will not occur for the Wilshire. Fractally, expect extreme
swings of up and down valuations. Those thinking of making money during
this macroeconomic catastrophe should think again. A wise government
would tax all windfall profits by 90 percent. No one should get rich
in this scenario. In the future wise governments will devise monetary
policy, interest rates, and and lending regulations to control
speculation in assets and their subsequent overvaluation.
The more specific the fractal prediction, the greater probability for
error. That the complex macroeconomic system grows and decays and
otherwise evolves according to a mathematical set of fractal patterns
appears readily observable retrospectively to anyone who cares to
studiously review the data in prior EF postings. The real task is
predicting the future pattern with a reasonable degree of clarity.
That would solidly place fractal analysis as having the properties of
a real science.
Prior postings in the Economic Fractalist show an evolution of
predictions. There are errors. These postings are like entries in an
experimental lab notebook. They will remain unaltered, available for
review. The incorrect estimations show the evolution of ongoing
fractal interpretation. As the fractal valuations evolve and present
new data (and the older patterns become more and more resounding in
their ideal quantum nature), so do the interpretations of the future
valuations evolve, gaining greater clarity.
The current interpretation as of 6 October 2005 of an ideal fractal
decay evolution for the Wilshire is as follows:
The peak secondary to March 2000 occurred on 3 August 2005. This
secondary peak occurs 147 years after the completion in 1858 of the
first major US economic grand fractal lasting about 70 years. The
second grand fractal is (will probably be)composed of two 74 year
subfractals, the first ending in 1932 and the second predicted to end
in 2006. The Wilshire is an extension of earlier exchange stock
valuation activity dating to the 18th century.
The top monthly Wilshire fractal including the March 2000 top was
27-28 months in length.
The expected 2.5x end of the fractal would be 67-70 months in length.
This agrees with the ideal end of a weekly fractal sequence
x,2.5x/2x/1.5x with an averaged base of 30 weeks (8 taken from a
declining fractal and 23 taken from a flat base; one week is
subtracted for double counting).
The ideal weekly sequence is; 30/75/60/45.
The Wilshire is currently on week 2 of the 45 week decay fractal.
The third growth fractal above composed of about 60 weeks is composed
of a 11/28/22 weeks or 59 weeks(subtract 2 for double counting). The
1.5x decay fractal of this sequence would be 18 weeks.
The daily count of the above fractal is 51-52/129-130/103-104 (x/2.5x/2x).
Remembering the integrative effect that fractals represent, decay
begins in top portion of the third subfractal or in the 103-104 day
period. Likewise by this reasoning the 103rd to104th day is not
expected to be 'the' final secondary high because of integrative
averaging and ongoing decay.
The number of days to an expected ideal low would be 1.5 times 51-52
or about 76-77.
As of 6 October 2005 the Wilshire is about day 10 of that decay
period. Thus after this week ends there will be about 65 more tradings
to a low. With trading holidays that would represent about 14 more
weeks.
As mentioned in prior postings the ideal quantum decay is x/2.5x/2.5x.
This was the sequence in 1929 with a base of 11 - 11/27/27. Other
quantum decay fractals are possible such as x/2.5x/x,1.5x,1.6x,and 2x,
but the x/2.5x/2.5x fractal is the most likely. the interpretation of
future fractal evolution are very much like the solving of a simple
mathematical puzzle.
The best solution using the above information is a decay fractal of
nearly 21 days. The second two decay fractals are each composed of 52.
August 3 falls into the middle subfractal of 11 days of a 5/11/7 day
sequence(subtract 2 days for double counting.
Notice a slope taken at the low of the first and last day of this
nearly 21 day fractal contains all the lows of the fractal.
The second fractal sequence is 9/19/day 11 of 26-27 days for a total
of 52-53 days.
The third decay fractal would be composed of about 52 days.
The 30 or so remaining weeks (45 minus 15) after the the predicted
January 2006 low might be composed of a 5/12/10/7 inverted 'u'
shaped fractal that would serve as the beginning base for the next
growth sequence. My estimation will be that the low will be
unimaginable.
Take this estimation like a notation in an experimental lab notebook.
It's today's best thought. It is today's best working fractal hypothesis.
Better thoughts with more ongoing data points and an ongoing review
of older information will likely occur in the following days. This is not
trading advice.
Thursday, October 6th
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Wednesday, October 5th
Gary Lammert
Nonlinearity Ahead - 15 Weeks to a Significant Low
The end of the major three phase fractal growth progression since
2002-3 is near; further lateral valuation growth of up to 3-6 days is
possible. The 3 August 2005 Wilshire, will, with great probability,
not be exceeded. But there is a possibility for the Nikkei, FTSE, CAC
and DAX to retest and exceed the previous week's highs.
The maximal daily final daily fractal pattern for the NIKKEI is on day
38 of a maximal 17-18/43/38 of 43 pattern (x/2.5x/2.5x maximal
pattern).
The Wilshire, FTSE, CAC, and DAX are on day 8 of a 5-6/14/8 of 10-14
day pattern. It is possible that these markets could break down before
the maximal theoretical length of their growth periods (see below), but
during the
last three years all of the saturation third fractal growth patterns
have gone to their full 2x-2.5x length for the major equity indices.
This pattern is expected to continue.
The long term fractal pattern since October of 1998 on a monthly basis
will be completed this month: x/2.5x/2.5x or 15/37/37(October 2005 is
month 37). On a weekly basis this is 59/157/156 of 157 weeks. Since
fractal patterns represent saturation growth and decay curves,
hypothetically, had the fed maintained, until present, a fed fund rate
of 1 percent, the Wilshire's valuation may have been substantial
higher than it is now- with a parabolic growth blow-off akin to that
now occurring in the NIKKEI. Theoretical, the timing of the saturation
peak would be, nevertheless, nearly unchanged.
Fractal growth has followed a remarkable quantum x/2.5x/2x time unit
pattern for the last 36-38 months despite a series of fed increases in
fed funds interest rates. a summary review of this growth is found
below:
Using the Wilshire: TMWX
First growth fractal (x): 22 weeks 103 days
(12 Mar 2003 -6 August 2003)
Second growth fractal (2.5x) 54-5 weeks 258 days (6 August
2003 - 13 August2004)
It may well be that these two fractals represent the composition of
the 'true' second growth fractal with an averaged calculated true
first growth fractal of 30 weeks or 144 days. A look at the Wilshire
shows a positive growth pattern prior to March 12, 2003 of 23 weeks.
It is possible that 7 additional weeks of the preceding declining
fractal of 12 weeks was averaged into that real first growth fractal.
Because fractals are an integrative process of both the preceding
decay and subsequent growth, this averaging is intuitively
reasonable.
The integrated growth pattern would be:
First fractal (averaged) (x) 30 weeks 144 days
Second fractal (2.5x) 75 weeks 360 days
The ideal time of the third fractal would be 2x or 288 days
The third fractal beginning in August 2004:
51-52/130/109 of a 104-130 maximum growth range or
51-52/130/104/ day 5 of a 78 day decay fractal
Friday 30 September was day 288-9 of an ideal 288 third fractal 2x pattern.
The idealized decay pattern using a 51-21 day base is about 77-78 days.
There are about 70 days left for a primary low. Interestingly this
agrees with an even longer integrated averaged fractal sequence dating
from October 1998 of a first fractal that includes fifty percent of a
preceding decaying weekly fractal of 5 weeks duration:
first weekly fractal 109.5 weeks
second fractal 259 of 275 weeks with about 16 weeks left to a low.
By using day 288 as the ideal third fractal top, using 72 days (from
September 30) to an expected low and 72 days as an expected low with
the 52/130/104/day 5 of 78 to an expected low, the first decay base
most likely started 31 August 2005. The initial decay fractal base
was 16 days. This ideally would be followed by second and third decay
fractals of 40 days for a total of 79 trading days from 22 September
2005. This is in exact agreement to a day of the major 144/360/288/72
daily fractal sequence and the final third fractal 52/130/104/78 day
sequence both which end within one day of each other.
Tuesday, October 4th
Monday October 3rd
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http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_possibility.jpg
2005 Stock Fractal Archive PageHome Page Stock Fractal Models for the
Monday May 2nd
April 29th
WHEN A TEST POINT FAILS OR SUCCEEDS, A CHANGE OF TREND BEGINS.LOOK BACK AT THE XAU INDEX AND TODAY LOOK AT RHAT ,,,, DOWN 3%THE TEST POINT IS YOUR STOP FOR PROTECTION.
I JUST LOVE THIS STUFF
2:09 pm UpdateA retracement may be coming for FDGFRACTAL TWO IS AT A TEST POINT .......
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_retracement.jpg
12:53 PM UPDATE
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/FDG_XAU.jpg
ENER Updatehttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ener_42905.jpg
look at 4-1or 4-4 and notice the move up. Something similar started again 4-25I thinkELN is in some sort of 3 or C up from 4-25 bottom of $3.80 area and in the intermediate
term headed to big resistance at @7.50.
LOOKING AT ELN NOW
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ELN_42905.jpg
TASER Update :
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/TASR_42905.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tasr42605_update_two.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ener_target.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/FDG_Perfect.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/intel_42905_base.jpg
Thursday, April 28th9:19 am Update :
I'll be out of the office this morning, hence the posting of the fractal charts will be delayed till this afternoon.Thank you HankENER ------
In corporate news, more than 10 percent of the Standard & Poor's 500 index reports results Thursday, with Dow components Exxon Mobil (Research) and Procter & Gamble (Research) set to report before the market open, while Microsoft (Research) will release results after the bell.
A PERFECT MIRROR FOR FDG !
f6 on this chart was the trigger for its decline on targethttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/FDG_42805_ZOOM.jpg
THE END POINTS FOR F2F4AND F6 ARE THE TRIGGERS FOR A TREND CHANGE
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/FDG_42805_COPY.jpg
Wednesday, April 27th
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/rhat_base_42705.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/RHAT_COPY_42705.jpg
1:44 pm Update
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10:25 am Update on FDG .... Unfolding for lower prices ...Down 2.92 % this morning !
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_42705.jpg
TASR UPDATE
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http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tasr_42605_update_one.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tasr_43605_big.jpg
Tuesday April 26th
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/B_FDG.jpg
This 3 day hourly chart is the base fractal for the 3 week chart for FDGScale the two charts and they are mirrors of each other .......The next big Move will be down ....
THIS IS THE BASE FRACTALhttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_base_42605.jpg
THIS IS THE COPY FRACTAL http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_internal_fractal.jpg
12:34pm Update
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_tom_42605.jpg
10:52 am Update:Taser is UP 4 % this morning , based on the below Fractal Model
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tasr_base_42605_inlay.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/TASR_COPY_42605.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tasr_base_42605.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/RHAT_42605_BASE.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/RHAT_42605_COPY.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/RHAT_42505.jpg
Key earnings in the week ahead
I LOOKED AT ALL THESE STOCKS TODAY ANDCAN NOT SEE ANYTHING WORTH BUYING I'M PASSING ON THESE FOR THE WEEKEVERYONE OF THESE IS A TRAIN WRECK
SBC Communications (Research) is the first Dow component up at bat next week. On Monday, the telecom is expected to report earnings of 33 cents per share, according to First Call estimates, down from 37 cents a year ago.
DuPont (Research), due to report Tuesday, likely earned $1.01 per share, analysts estimate, down from $1.02 a year ago.
Also Tuesday, American Express (Research) is expected to report earnings of 75 cents per share, versus 66 cents a year ago.
Amazon.com (Research), due after the market close Tuesday, likely earned 22 cents per share, analysts estimate, down from 23 cents a year ago.
Boeing (Research), due to report Wednesday, is expected to have earned 55 cents per share, 10 cents less than what it earned a year ago.
Verizon Communications (Research), also due Wednesday, is expected to post earnings of 60 cents per share, versus 58 cents a year ago.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (Research), due Thursday, is forecast to have earned 34 cents per share.
Exxon Mobil (Research) is expected to report earnings of $1.18 per share, when it releases its results Thursday morning. The oil behemoth earned 83 cents a year ago.
Procter & Gamble (Research), another Dow component, is expected to have earned 61 cents per share in the quarter, according to forecasts. The consumer products company, which reports results Thursday, earned 55 cents per share a year ago.
Microsoft (Research) reports earnings after-the-bell Thursday. The technology leader is expected to have earned 32 cents per share, two cents less than what it earned a year ago.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/apple_selloff.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_base_42405.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_copy_42405.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/INTEL_42505.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tom_42405_sunday.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/vclk_tom_sunday.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/apple_tom_sunday.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tom_rimm_)sunday.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/rimm_target_tom.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/vclk_42405_tom.jpg
Copyright © 2003 - 2004All rights reserved. All content, graphics and publications on this site are protected by U.S. copyright and international treaties and may not be copied without the written express permission of Trading Amazing Elliott Wave Fractals, which reserves all rights. Re-distribution of any of TAEWF's content and graphics for any purpose is strictly prohibited. The materials from the TAEWF's site are available for informational uses only, provided the content and/or graphics are not modified in any way, all copyright and other notices on any copy are retained, and written permission is granted by TAEWF..As financial markets are subject to many influences and fluctuate due to many factors, no guarantees are made as to the accuracy of the information presented or distributed.The operator of this site is not responsible for the manner in which the information is used by subscribers or readers.
2005 Stock Fractal Archive PageHome Page Stock Fractal Models for the Week of May 9th
Monday, May 9th
Intermediate Fractal Model for E Trade ---------------A trigger at F6 http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ET_5705.jpg
Friday, May 6th12:45 pm Update
Looks like FDG is holding at the 93 target for another TOP
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_5605.jpg
GOOGLE is topping ...... looking for a a clear Trigger to short -- It May be the TRADE of the YEAR !
TASER has a trigger at F4 that will have been following ..... up like a rocket today !A whopping 4.1 % today
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/TASR_5605.jpg
RIMM has a nice trigger ........... it's on my fractal watch ...... TZOO is weak ..... don't see anything forming with the stock yet
The INTC Fractalat2/23/05 is mapping the current top and end of rally for the stock
Thursday May 5th
Just a NOTE :The web pages here contain my analysis.If there is a high probability for a profitable trade , subscribers will be notified via the email alert. Please sign up on the Home page.
ENER Update ................ hit 22 and rallied to 24 ... based on its fractal model
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ener_5505.jpg
10:34 am Update
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_update_5505.jpg
DON'T FORGET THIS WEEKEND : I WILL OFFER MORE DETAILS ON MY APPEARANCE WITH IKE ON MARKETVIEWS.TV ELN Past and Future ..Amazing !
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_later.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_now.jpg
I'LL BE DISCUSSING AND ILLUSTRATINGTHE "FRACTAL PRINCIPLE."
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/EGHT_ONE.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/EGHT_TWO.jpg
THE GOLD SHARES (nem) APPEAR AND ARE DUE FOR A NICE RALLY
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/NEM_ONE.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/NEM_TWO.jpg
Here is an excellent example of a Time Fractal for Gillette-------- Not only is the form a mirror but also it's time frame .......
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/g_time_1.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/g_time_2.jpg
BlockBuster reports earnings tomorrow.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/BLOCKBUSTER_1.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/BLOCKBUSTER_TWO.jpg
Wednesday, May 4th
ELN tops out as stated yesterday
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_top.jpg
FDG reaching a target at f5 .... a mirror fractal of the larger rise
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_50405.jpg
10:38 AM UPDATE ---- TASER
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/TASR_5405.jpg
GOOG is mapping a path for lower prices ........ Fractal One is iterating into Fractal Two
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_5405_base.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_5405_copy.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/GOOG_BASE_SET.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/GOOG_COPY_SET.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ZOOM_GOOGLE.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/GOOG_BASE_SET.jpg
Tuesday May 3rd Every thing is quiet today , so far ...
2:00 pm update
ELN is in a 4th wave of 1 and I believe the target will be the congestion
@7.25 to 8.25.
TASR is holding true to form so far.
FDG seems to be in an abc correction and if a=c then the target is @93.50 -
94- It also fits the fractal from the decline from @97. high a few days ago.
SIRI is on target to get to the 5.25 area.
ENER has bounced perfectly off22
I actually think I have found a pattern in GOOG.Go to fractal of 4-25 and
at the top of the spike is a sideways to up move.Now go to 4-27 and notice
the similarity of the moves.If I'm right then GOOG as I write is in a
small 4 with 5 to go this afternoon or early tomorrow a.m. with a target of
227+/-.Then it should start a correction to 205.From pivot of 217 0n
4-27 to 227 is @ 11points and 11 minus the pivot is @206 which would be in
the area of the gap. It is way overbought short term.
I'll provide more information this weekend for my regular guest appearance on MarketViews.TVI'll be discussing and explaining the Fractal Principles and theory for the markets and stocks,This morning I'll be out of the office ....... will do some posts this afternoon when I return.Today is FED Day ........... Hank
NOTE:Yesterday FDG made a trigger for a upward correction to the 90's -- then down againELN is reaching a target for a TOP
Monday May 2nd3:31 PM UPDATE FDG NOW HAS A TRIGGER ... UP 1%
2:36 pm Update
ENER UP NEARLY 2 + % TODAY
12:15 PM UPDATE
THE FDG FRACTAL IS FAILING , EXPECT A BREAK BELOW 84 FOR LOWER PRICES---- IF THERE IS NO TRIGGERFOR AN ADVANCE
F6 SHOULD CONTINUE THE DECLINE INTO A F7
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_5105.jpg
SIRI is going to 5.25.Look at fractalat 4/18 -4/19.Buy area is 4.70 - 4.75.
Rimm hit 62 which wastarget for F5and bounced big to @65.
PTF looks to be repeating 3-23 or3-29 fractal.One implies retest of 13.40
low and the other an even bigger drop.
TASER IS MAKING A BOTTOM HERE ........... FOR A RUN TO F5 DO A ZOOM OF FRACTAL ONE TO ESTIMATE THE TOP ........AND THEN ANOTHER DECLINE DOWN
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/TASR_5105.jpg
ENER on target for a bottom ..
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ener_1.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ener_2_ontarget.jpg
Hello Hank,
I have been enjoying your service lately.Was looking at your FDG
pick.I missed it but congrats on the call.Your chart on FDG...you
mentioned FDG will retrace and it shows a target of 70s. By retrace do
you mean, it will bounce at all from current levels? Or by retrace, you
meant it is headed to 70s?
Also. has anything changed SPX going lower due to rally on Friday.I
noticed a UP-DOWN-UP-DOWN patter on markets last week.
Look forward to your reply.
Thanks,
Last week if you review the archive charts, fractal one completed one iteration.
That iteration mapped a top for this stock at f6 and F6 respectively.
In return the stock fell almost 10 points.
Now if you examine the below chart again, another similarity seems to be appearing.
This similarity exists at F5 --------- that lead to a trend change at 96 and near 85
The similarities point to a change in the path.
To find the turning points in a stock or in a index look for the similarities.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_5105.jpg
As a similarity appeared at the top for FDG, now one is appearing for the stock again ..
This time it is indicating a turn for a small retracement ......... then back down again .....
No one can predict what a stock or index will do the next trading session.
However, an investor can reasonable map a likely path based onthe past behavior for the stock.
That behavior can be quantified within a fractal ...............
One can use the fractal point sets as road maps for protection.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/FDG_FRACTAL_POINT_SET.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/FDG_ZOOM1.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/FDSG_ZOOM2.jpg
Copyright © 2003 - 2004All rights reserved. All content, graphics and publications on this site are protected by U.S. copyright and international treaties and may not be copied without the written express permission of Trading Amazing Elliott Wave Fractals, which reserves all rights. Re-distribution of any of TAEWF's content and graphics for any purpose is strictly prohibited. The materials from the TAEWF's site are available for informational uses only, provided the content and/or graphics are not modified in any way, all copyright and other notices on any copy are retained, and written permission is granted by TAEWF..As financial markets are subject to many influences and fluctuate due to many factors, no guarantees are made as to the accuracy of the information presented or distributed.The operator of this site is not responsible for the manner in which the information is used by subscribers or readers.
2005 Stock Fractal Archive PageHome PageChat RoomDiscussion Forums Stock Fractal Models for the Week of May 9th"Fractals do indeed work" ........Tom ( A Long-Term Subscriber )
Sunday, May 15th
Next week's big earnings
Lowe's (Research) is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings of 76 cents per share Monday, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by First Call. The home improvement retailer earned 57 cents a year earlier.
Lowe's rival Home Depot (Research) is seem posting income of 55 cents per share Tuesday, three cents more than a year earlier.
J.C. Penney (Research) also reports Tuesday, and is expected to have earned 61 cents per share, up from 38 cents a year earlier;
fellow retailer Staples (Research) is forecast to have income of 20 cents per share, three cents more than a year earlier.
Applied Materials (Research) reports fiscal second-quarter results after the close Tuesday and is expected to have put up profit of 17 cents per share, five cents less than the prior-year period.
Hewlett-Packard (Research) report its second-quarter results Tuesday evening and is expected to have earned 36 cents per share, two cents more than in the year-earlier period.
Gap (Research) reports Thursday evening. Its profit is seen tumbling to 30 cents a share, four cents less than the prior-year period.
Friday, May 13th
Look at longer term chart of FDG. It would suggest that FDG tests it's 200
day moving average @73.If so it would present a great buying opportunity,
because a $1.30+ dividend will be paid in late June and when the dividend is
announced late this month or early next month there will be rush to buy for
the dividend.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/rimm_72.jpg
ALTI should be a buy in this area with a stop at 2.98.Look at fractal 1 on
the chart below.
ALTI is down 6% today as projected from its fractal model (F4)
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/alti.jpg
10:33 am Update
FDG is down again 5.54 % today !Taser should hit 15 ........ the stock is UP7.22% today !Its test point is saying higherf5 on the below chart is the $15.00 target
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/taser_pointset_51205.jpg
This week was great .... most of the fractal models produced great returns ELN, ET, FDG and TASER
I'm going to be out of the office today.Additional charts will be posted this weekend. Please check back.In the next few weeks I'll be a regular guest on MarketViews.tvI'll announce the exact dates soon.Subscribers can view my comments on that site and /or I'll post the interview free on my site here .....Also the chat room and discussion forum will be placed back online again for subscribers.
Fractal of AAPL suggests31-32 bottom where there is a lot of support.
GOOG chart looks very similar to the timeframe of 10-21 to 11-3.Two
different perspectives for the same time period.Amazing.If it follows
this path GOOG should hold up into maybe Tuesday of options expirations next
week.Then a fall.
Thursday, May 12thAnother Exciting Day GOOGLE breaks 3:18 pm UpdateFDG could bounce from this area before heading down again.Would be the
last chance to short before reaching its fractal target low.
2:32 pm Update FDG Down 7.09 % falling like a Rock !The Power of Fractals !
Goodbye FDG
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_goodbye.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/alti.jpg
PCLN is likely to level off here and could make it's moveup this afternoon
when the shorts realize it isn't going don anymore.Target should be the 26
area.
EGHT on a daily basis is tracing out it's fractal so far.The suggested
path would be a rise to the 1.57 area - a move back down to the 1.45 area -
then up in a nig move toe the target area suggested on the posted chart.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eght_51205.jpg
ELN hit target this a.m.NOTE new subscribers --- view the past archive on this fractal-----
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_51205.jpg
TASR is still climbing - maybe the original target of 15 is still valid.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/taser_pointset_51205.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/taser_51205.jpg
GOOG may have topped today -it's getting closer.
FDG seems to be following the "Alternative Fractal" ---- downside target of 78 for the stock Down 1.84 % today http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_51205.jpg
AAPL is currently following a fractal
Wednesday, May 11th
2:03 pm Update
GOOGLE Update .... It looks like another 8 points to the upside ....
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_rally.jpg
I would not be bearish (yet) short term here ........ another pop to the upside Its fractal is forming another iteration for the top ........
One More Rally for GOOGLEhttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_51105.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tasr_profit.jpg
11:33 am Update ------ Up 3.91 % today
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_more.jpg
PCLN Update .... the stock made a Wednesday double bottom as projected from its fractal model !Perfect http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/pcln_copy_51105.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/pcln_51005.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_51105.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_51105.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_51005.jpg
Tuesday, May 10th
FDG FRACTAL RECAP
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_51005.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_51005.jpg
TZOO is on a Fractal Watch for Now only Not a buy yet
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tzoo_51005.jpg
1:42 pm
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/pcln_51005.jpg
12:25 pm
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_after.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_before.jpg
ELN UPDATEAlso -I don't believe ELN has topped out yet.I think it finished a 3 and
now is in 4 with a 5 to go.1 up was @1.60 and if 5 at leat equals 1 then
form where it is trading today (6.20 area) then it will get to the 7.50 to
8.50 range - which by the way is where your fractal suggests it should go.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_51005.jpg
9:23 am Update
I'll be out of the office this morning , will return at 12:00 pm
SUBSCRIBERS:PLEASE CHECK YOUR EMAIL TODAY.I'LL BE CHANGING THE PASSWORDS FOR THE SITE ....... TRIAL SUBSCRIBERS WILL NEED TO SIGN UP WITH PAYPAL (Click HereInvestment Services )TO CONTINUE TO RECEIVE ACCESS TO THE SITE. THANKS
In addition, due to subscriber's request, I plan on expanding the number of stocks for the Stock Fractal Service.
It seems to be very popular and a good learning experience for investors. There are literally hundreds of opportunities available every day in all the financial markets.
There will also be plans to include both "short term" and "intermediate term" stock fractals ---- for the longer term investor .........
I do receive alot of email on particular stocks from visitors. Due to time restraints it is not always possible for me to answer or analyze a particular stock setup. So I decided to offer another service for subscribers to address newly found structures in a stock:
A fractal hotline will be implemented shortly via a chat room where subscribers can ask questions on a stock fractal. I'll supply more information shortly on the web site. The pricing scale will be nominal --- perhaps $20.00 per 5 minutes that includes charts and an opinion for the direction of a path for a stock.
An institutional service will also be offered for fund managers and institutional clients. More information will be coming shortly on this premium service.
HANK
Chart of PCLN - noticed after hours activity. - go to 4-27 and follow it 4-29
bottom - then see it iterate to 5-9.After hours it fell to 24.70 area
which fits the fractal.It should bounce to 26.25 area and then retest 25
area before it bottoms and then moves higher.
I'm updating TASER today ......... nothing wrong with taking a profit .... or 50/50
This rise will bring a Top that should continue the Intermediate decline for the stock.. that's my view
It did have a 15% rise ........... that does not happen to often ,,,,
There are so many other stocks one can look at ...........
4:00 pm Update
Look at TASR - hitting on all cylinders.UP 15.78 %ET UP 6.5 % today !
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/TASR_5905.jpg
Also -I don't believe ELN has topped out yet.I think it finished a 3 and
now is in 4 with a 5 to go.1 up was @1.60 and if 5 at leat equals 1 then
form where it is trading today (6.20 area) then it will get to the 7.50 to
8.50 range - which by the way is where your fractal suggests it should go.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_5905.jpg
Finally -for now - I think FDG is headed to the 78 area.
ET now up 6.37 % 11:49 am Update
Newer subscribers should review the index archive for the fractal path on TZOOIt appears there may be a Upward correction --- rally for the stock
10:53 am update ETUP 5 % this morning !Look at the below Fractal charton ET Financial --- amazing ...The chart was posted over the weekend for subscribers ....
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/et_5905.jpg
10:36 am Update
TASER up 4 % again this morning .............. still rallying from its F4 trigger for higher prices !
GOOGLE is getting toppy here The below chart is the Base Fractal http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_5905.jpg
The week's big earnings
Monday: Priceline.com (Research) is expected to report earnings of 20 cents per share, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial/First Call. That's up from the 11 cents the company earned a year ago. (Is it a buy, sell or hold?)
Tuesday: Cisco Systems (Research) is expected to have earned 22 cents per share, up from 19 cents a year ago.
Wednesday: Walt Disney (Research) likely earned 31 cents per share, according to forecasts, versus 26 cents per share a year ago.
Thursday: Target (Research) is expected to have earned 53 cents per share, up from 48 cents a year ago;
Wal-Mart Stores (Research) is expected to have earned 56 cents per share, six cents more than a year ago;
Dell (Research) is expected to report earnings of 37 cents per share, versus 28 cents a year ago.
Intermediate Fractal Model for E Trade ---------------A trigger at F6 http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ET_5705.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/FDG_FRACTAL_POINT_SET.jpg
Copyright © 2003 - 2004All rights reserved. All content, graphics and publications on this site are protected by U.S. copyright and international treaties and may not be copied without the written express permission of Trading Amazing Elliott Wave Fractals, which reserves all rights. Re-distribution of any of TAEWF's content and graphics for any purpose is strictly prohibited. The materials from the TAEWF's site are available for informational uses only, provided the content and/or graphics are not modified in any way, all copyright and other notices on any copy are retained, and written permission is granted by TAEWF..As financial markets are subject to many influences and fluctuate due to many factors, no guarantees are made as to the accuracy of the information presented or distributed.The operator of this site is not responsible for the manner in which the information is used by subscribers or readers.
Stock Fractal Models for the Week of May 16th"Fractals do indeed work" ........Tom ( A Long-Term Subscriber )
Monday, May 23rd
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_52105_base.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/FDG_52105_COPY.jpg
Stock Fractal Models for the Week of May 23rd"Fractals do indeed work" ........Tom ( A Long-Term Subscriber )
Friday, May 27th
FDG may present a good shorting opportunity and a then a good buy
based on fractal chart-if it continues the path.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_saturday.jpg
Generally speaking - it would appear that thin volume due to the holidays
(big players are gone for the holidays - probably till Tuesday 5-31)and
holding on to the big profits made in April and May till the end of the
month fits the Bradley turn date +/- a day for a good quick correction into
the 6-10 date.Allso if King Fahd dies over the weekend investors are going
to be spooked until the status quo can be assured. It all fits.It will be
interesting to watch the next couple of trading days.
EGHT
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eght1.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eght2.jpg
ALTI also spiked this morning.Look at fractal which also had a spike.http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/alti1.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/alti2.jpg
GOOG should make its high this a.m- shortly- it is so far
following the fractal.Short term target should be 236 area which is 20 day
ma and also fits fractal.It should pause around 248 the final leg down.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_52705.jpg
Thursday, May 26thThe reason for less charts lately is the lack of clarity for general stocks.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/TZOO_38.jpg
PCLN hits its target of $25.00
Wednesday, May 25thNo Posts
Tuesday, May 24th
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_next.jpg
11:07 amTZOO Up again1.30 % today ... now it stands above $34.00
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tzoo_third_iteration.jpg
Monday, May 23rd 2:08 pm Update
A subscriber asked me to look at TZOO for a possible breakout
TZOO is UP 10.60 % today ......... Now it is $34.11Its Fractal Unfolds!WOW
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tzoo_third_iteration.jpg
9:33 am
Nature as we see it, is not a smooth world filled with objects such as boxes, spheres and circles. These objects do not appear anywhere in nature ---- they are all man made and NOT nature made. The world in which we live in is not smooth edged such as a line.The geometry of Euclid describes ideal shapes ....What has been missing is a method to describe the shapes and objects of the real world ...... there are only non-uniform and rough shapes in the universe.Fractal Geometry is the geometry that is used to define the irregular shapes in nature.For example a tree is not smooth --- rather very irregular. It is not a box, sphere, cube or a line ..... it is very rough.The stock is also very rough and not smooth ........ it has no box, sphere, cube or line characteristics. -------- The Lines are Man Made ------ This is where traditional technical analysis fails for the investor Instead of using traditional geometry e.g., plotting circles, lines, boxes etc, one must look into fractal geometry for the hidden order of the markets. The order can be found in the fractals.As demonstrated through this web site .......... clearly defined fractals offer a more sane approach toward investing. You can actually --- visually see the fractals unfold ------ on any time frame.Since fractals are infinite in detail and length ...... traditional linear analysis is not suited for plotting and forecasting thenext top or bottom for any financial market ......... Example --- The Elliott Wave Principle ....... although any system will be successful 50% of the time ......Look at a typical chart of a stock ..... it is ragged and not smooth ....hence one can not define for example the rate of change for any parameter ,,,,,,, it is not possible .....Numbers are no help either ...... one starts with a real number ...then go to integers .... then to rationals and then complex numbers ...............
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_52105_base.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/FDG_52105_COPY.jpg
Stock Fractal Models for the Week of May 16th
Friday, May 20th 1:45 pm I'll be posting charts this evening .......
Thursday May 19th
VLO Update fails at F6 ------ will test 58 --- for a a lower F7http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/vlo_51905.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/VLO_BASE_51605.jpg
1:00 pm Update
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/TZOO_FRACTAL_POINT_SET.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tzoo_third_iteration.jpg
FDG Update:I'll post another chart on FDG shortly Appears to be a retracement and then back up again .... could this kill the markets this summer with higheroil and gas prices ? It may fit the scenario for a top for the DOWThe $75.00 level was reached with accuracy .......
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_may_19th.jpgTHE NEXT PATH
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_retrace.jpg
Wednesday, May 18th 12:41 pmI'm reconfiguring my servers today, so the charts will be postponed until tonight I'll also be posting a special updated fractal analysis on the markets tonight. It appears that the landscape is changing ... Hank
Tuesday, May 17th
Taser is done for its run ...TZOO may be heading down again ...GOOGLE is still holding from its high
1:46 pm Update
VLO bounced today Exactly at F5 ! view the chart from yesterday
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/vlo_51705.jpg
11:23 am
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_big.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/GOOG_BASE_51705.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/GOOG_COPY_51705.jpg
Monday, May 16thI'm experiencing technical difficulties uploading this morning .... charts may be limited today until this is resolved ......
EGHT went a bit above the short term target of 1.60+ areatoday and if the
fractal holds it should slide back down to the 1.45 area before it makes
it's major move up.
GOOG is following the fractals -should be another day
or two at the most before it heads down.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tzoo_51605.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/VLO_BASE_51605.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/VLO_COPY_51605.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/GOOG_BASE_51605.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/GOOG_COPY_51605.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/vlo_51605.jpg
FDG Update down 5.23 % again today .... reached $75.00 target !
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_51605.jpg
Next week's big earnings
Lowe's (Research) is expected to report fiscal first-quarter earnings of 76 cents per share Monday, according to a consensus of analysts surveyed by First Call. The home improvement retailer earned 57 cents a year earlier.
Lowe's rival Home Depot (Research) is seem posting income of 55 cents per share Tuesday, three cents more than a year earlier.
J.C. Penney (Research) also reports Tuesday, and is expected to have earned 61 cents per share, up from 38 cents a year earlier;
fellow retailer Staples (Research) is forecast to have income of 20 cents per share, three cents more than a year earlier.
Applied Materials (Research) reports fiscal second-quarter results after the close Tuesday and is expected to have put up profit of 17 cents per share, five cents less than the prior-year period.
Hewlett-Packard (Research) report its second-quarter results Tuesday evening and is expected to have earned 36 cents per share, two cents more than in the year-earlier period.
Gap (Research) reports Thursday evening. Its profit is seen tumbling to 30 cents a share, four cents less than the prior-year period.
Copyright © 2003 - 2004All rights reserved. All content, graphics and publications on this site are protected by U.S. copyright and international treaties and may not be copied without the written express permission of Trading Amazing Elliott Wave Fractals, which reserves all rights. Re-distribution of any of TAEWF's content and graphics for any purpose is strictly prohibited. The materials from the TAEWF's site are available for informational uses only, provided the content and/or graphics are not modified in any way, all copyright and other notices on any copy are retained, and written permission is granted by TAEWF..As financial markets are subject to many influences and fluctuate due to many factors, no guarantees are made as to the accuracy of the information presented or distributed.The operator of this site is not responsible for the manner in which the information is used by subscribers or readers.
Friday, June 10th
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_update_61005.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/taser_june10th.jpg
10:43 am UpdateENER Up 4 % this morning
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ener_june_10th.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_1_june.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog2_june_9th.jpg
A couple of perspectives on GOOG.Everything seems to fit so far.There is
a gap at 265 which is roughly where the 20 day moving average will be soon.
It has bounced so far at every trendline.See the chart.Also if GOOG
completed A or 1 down yesterday, then it is in B with C to come.If C =A
then the target is the gap area or even a little lower.It is possible that
GOOG is in 4 of 1 down with 5 to go before a 2 begins.This scenario would
be a longer term one with the possibility ofmove down beyond the gap to
touch the 50 day ma.The 20 and 50 day mas have held GOOG up nicely and
given its ability to generate revenue increases each quarter will likely
continue to do so.The only way GOOG breaksdown is if it misses or just
meets the analysts numbers.
Also, the COMPX, NDX etc may have not hit F6 just yet.I'm still looking
for 2020-2040 for a bottom for the COMPX.Options expiration (triple
witching too) is next week and may create the dynamics to trade somewhat
lower.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/intel_chip.jpg
Thursday June 9th
ENER UP 2.29 % 2:32pm Update
ENER is still in the fractal limits - the low that needs to hold is16.25.
The next day or two will tell.http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ener_June_9th.jpg
FDG is moving down nicely but not sure where the buy area is.
ELN is on track to get to the $4-5 area, but it may still take a while. I'm
looking at a shorter term fractal that if it unfolds would get it down to
the buy area.
GOOG finally changed direction.Down big the past 2 days.I have seen
something in the GOOG chart that seems to be unfolding in this correction.
The next day or two will tell me for sure.If I'm correct then GOOG will
present either a good long buy at its 20 day moving averageor a good
short.
Wednesday, June 8th
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tasr_june_8th.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ener_June_8th.jpg
Tuesday, June 7th
Although the chart below is not scaled, the same fractalappears 3 times .....
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/3_times.jpg
Amazing ...http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_again.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_June_7th.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/nem_June7th.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_June_7th.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_zoom_June_7th.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eln_internal.jpg
Monday, June 6th
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/amzn_scale.jpg
Sun Update
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/sunw_Update.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/sun_June_5th.jpg
Friday, June 3rd
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/nem_zoom.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/MDR_6305.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/nem_6305.jpg
Amazon has not become clear yet ...http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/amzn_1.jpg
I view Sun as Bearish ..... it's in another iteration for lower prices ....
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/SUN_2.jpghttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/SUNW_1.jpg
Wednesday June 1st
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eyet.jpg
Tuesday, May 31st
Two Point Drop for Rimmhttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/rimm_53105.jpg
TZOO is reaching its target (36) from its base fractal. http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tzoo_53005.jpg
It appears there may be a turn here ....
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/vlo_hs.jpg
I'm watching FDG ...... for another turn down ........
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/fdg_53105.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_531_05.jpg
Copyright © 2003 - 2004All rights reserved. All content, graphics and publications on this site are protected by U.S. copyright and international treaties and may not be copied without the written express permission of Trading Amazing Elliott Wave Fractals, which reserves all rights. Re-distribution of any of TAEWF's content and graphics for any purpose is strictly prohibited. The materials from the TAEWF's site are available for informational uses only, provided the content and/or graphics are not modified in any way, all copyright and other notices on any copy are retained, and written permission is granted by TAEWF..As financial markets are subject to many influences and fluctuate due to many factors, no guarantees are made as to the accuracy of the information presented or distributed.The operator of this site is not responsible for the manner in which the information is used by subscribers or readers.
Monday, June 27th
Looks like Tzoo is headed back down to 31.50 area?Looks like the move from
the high mirrors the first move and correction off the bottom?
TZOO down 2% still falling from 38
ENER is up 6.91 % today !
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ener_june_23.jpg
AmazinglyGOOGLE is advancing today (up 3 points)....... looks like a final swing up for Top
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_tradeoftheyear.jpg
AGEN has reached its buy area this morning.It should base here before any
move up.5.20 should be the stop - it's just below the most recent low.
Thursday June 23rd
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/bgo_here.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_tradeoftheyear.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_308.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eyet_june23.jpg
On GOOG I was looking for a decline and a test of the highsThen the stock may be prime for the Trade of the Year if it remains within the defined fractal boundaries !
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/another_high.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ener_62305.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_62305.jpg
EYET and BGO Update Today RIMM Update..... Up 10 points from its trigger at 71 several weeks ago
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/rimm_62305.jpg
A Trader's Paradise AGEN
This fractal would allow a trader to buy and sell multiple times over the
course of a month or so.It is low priced enough to trade larger positions
to make up for the sideways action in the early stagesof the fractal
expansion.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/traders_paradise.jpg
Wednesday, June 22nd
RIMM up 7.02 % UP 5 points @ 79 +
Listen to the Interview on Ike's show about my projection for RIMMhttp://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/wernicki/pg1.htm 2:34pm Update
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/TZOO_JUNE22.jpg
12:29 pm Update
RIMM Update WOW !
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/rimm_wow.jpg
Hank - Bought 250 sharesof RIMM at 76 - sold at 78 in less than 45 min.
Tom
congratulations of RIMM..thats TZOO..GOOG...ENER..and now RIMM ...now. I have once in a while posted in Mark Young's room..http://www.traders-talk.com...complimenting some(only a few) services that i like....Mark Young is a good friend of Ike...i would like to compliment you in that room.. MIKE
Great call on RIMM I sold a little early!Rick
Look at EYET-it started its move up - set to open higher again this
morning.So far it is acting like ENER - a move up - rest a bit -move
up again, etc
Tuesday, June 21st ENER Updatehttp://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ener_june_21st.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/rimm_june21.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/rimm_target.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/rimm_june_17th.jpg
Monday June 20th
There is a very similar pattern unfolding for GOOG with that of 2-2 to 2-4
of this year. you zoom and expand those 2 days you will see what I am seeing. Check it out . It may be nothing-but if GOOG holds 276 Mondaythen it is possible.The other scenario is a
repeat of the 1-2 to 1-24 chart where GOOG hugged its 20 day ma right back
up to test and break by a few $ its most recent high.Bottom line:If GOOG
does'n break down on Monday or Tuesday at the latest I think that GOOG
retests its high of 300.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_June_18th.jpg
ENER has been unbelievable - 16.25 to almost 20 in 7 trading days for a 23%
gain.Annualize that return Traders don't need many trades like this to make a lot of money during the course of a year.Just add up the gains this year alone with the fractal charts of TASR
ELN TZOO RIMM FDG SIRI RHAT PCLNand EGHT and it could have made some
traders rich.
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/rimm_June18th.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tasr_June_18th.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/eyet_June_18th.jpg
Friday, June 17th
ENER is touching 20 today ............ time for some profit taking
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ener_61505.jpg
TZOO falling like a rock from my target at 38 + as expected !
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tzoo_61605.jpg
Support here is near 70 with a target of 78 +71 was the entry point
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/rimm_june_17th.jpg
Thursday, June 16th1:15 pm Update
RIMM is up 2.82 % on its fractal trigger today !
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/rimm_61605.jpg
ENER is up again today.......4.12 % on its fractal model !
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/ener_61605.jpg
GOOG is still struggling .........
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/goog_66105.jpg
TZOO retreats from 38.00Here's the Base Fractal Point Set that maps the current path for TZOO --- perfect
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tzoo_61605.jpg
http://www.elliottfractals.com/stocks/tzoo_here_two.jpg
TASR is testing the 10.50 support for a potential decline
http://marketviews.tv/freeservices/archives1/Guests/wernicki/pg1.htm