The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-09.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/14/33079_13711.gif
Figure C1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dz.
Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dz a new upward zigzag structure is developing. If this is the case after the completion of the downward correction the US dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/CHF) should be expected.
For more detailed wave counting onsmaller time-frames andparameters of possible trading plans refer to the daily reports.
References
[*]Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 )[*]EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 [*]GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 18, 2009When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-09.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/14/33080_13712.gif
Figure Y1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.
In the framework of scenario 3-dt the first leg (A) of zigzag that is one of the main waves of a large diagonal triangle V.completes developing. If the supposition of the current wave structure is true after the completion of upward correction strengthening of JPY (the decline of USD/JPY) should be expected.
For more detailed wave counting onsmaller time-frames andparameters of possible trading plans refer to the daily reports.
References
[*]Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 )[*]EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 [*]GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 18, 2009When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-09.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/14/33081_13713.gif
Figure G1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly in the framework of scenario 1 a downward zigzag structure is developing. If this is the case after the completion of the horizontal correction the US dollar’s strengthening should be expected (the decline of GBP/USD).
For more detailed wave counting onsmaller time-frames andparameters of possible trading plans refer to the daily reports.
References
[*]Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 )[*]EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 [*]GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 18, 2009When using any part of the article for
The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-09.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/14/33082_13714.gif
Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dz.
Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dz a new downward zigzag structure is developing. If this is the case after the completion of upward correction the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of EUR/USD) should be expected.
For more detailed wave counting onsmaller time-frames andparameters of possible trading plans refer to the daily reports.
References
[*]Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 )[*]EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 [*]GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 18, 2009When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Introduction
Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening that has been lasting for several months hasn’t completed yet. Possible variant of the continuation of this strengthening were considered in the corresponding sections of this report.
References
[*]Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 )[*]EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 [*]GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis January 2009 [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 18, 2009When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:34 编辑 ]
The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-09.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/14/33188_13959.gif
Figure C1.Immediate continuation of the US dollar's strengthening.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/14/33188_13960.gif
Figure C2. Completion of a large correction against the dollar.
Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dz a new upward zigzag structure is developing. The choice of one of the equally probable variants will be determined by the depth of downward correction which the price will prefer.
For more detailed wave counting onsmaller time-frames andparameters of possible trading plans refer to the daily reports.
References
[*]Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 )[*]EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 [*]GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009[*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009[*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 [*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 31, 2009When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-09.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/14/33189_13961.gif
Figure Y1. Immediate continuation of the yen's strengthening.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/14/33189_13962.gif
Figure Y2. Completion of a large correction against the yen.
In the framework of scenario 3-dt downward zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) is developing as a main wave of a large diagonal triangle. A small difference between almost equally probable variants lies in the depth of the yen’s decline (the rise of USD/JPY) , which the price will prefer.
From the point of view of the internal structure of this knot the variant in Figure Y1 has a small advantage.
For more detailed wave counting onsmaller time-frames andparameters of possible trading plans refer to the daily reports.
References
[*]Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 )[*]EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 [*]GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009[*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009[*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 31, 2009When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-09.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/14/33190_13963.gif
Figure G1. Immediate continuation of the US dollar's strengthening.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/14/33190_13964.gif
Figure G2. Completion of a large correction against the USD.
Supposedly in the framework of scenario 1 a downward zigzag structure is developing. The choice of one of the equally probable variants will be determined by the location of the ending point of upward wave , which the price will prefer.
For more detailed wave counting onsmaller time-frames andparameters of possible trading plans refer to the daily reports.
References
[*]Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 )[*]EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 [*]GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009[*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009[*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 31, 2009When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-09.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/14/33191_13965.gif
Figure E1. Immediate continuation of the US dollar's strengthening.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/14/33191_13966.gif
Figure E2. Completion of a large correction against the USD.
Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dz a new downward zigzag structure is developing. The choice of one of equally probable variants will be determined by the depth of upward correction which the price will prefer.
For more detailed wave counting onsmaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to the daily reports.
References
[*]Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 )[*]EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 [*]GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009[*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 [*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 31, 2009When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Supposedly the process of strengthening of the US dollar against the European currencies and the Japanese yen against the USD that has been lasting for several months, hasn’t completed yet. At the same time at the moment there are two most probable scenarios which are considered in this forecast:
Introduction
Supposedly the process of strengthening of the US dollar against the European currencies and the Japanese yen against the USD that has been lasting for several months, hasn’t completed yet. At thesame time atthe moment есть there are two most probable scenarios:
[*]immediate continuation of strengthening of the dollar and yen;[*]the completion of a large correction directed against the dollar and yen and only after that their further strengthening.Each of these scenarios is considered in the corresponding sections of this forecast.
References
[*]Introduction (Annaul WA for 2009 )[*]EUR/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009 [*]GBP/USD Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/JPY Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]USD/CHF Annual Wave Analysis 2009[*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009[*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 [*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 [*]USD/CHF, Monthly Wave Analysis February 2009 [*]Wave Analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market [*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 31, 2009When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory
[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:35 编辑 ]
February 2009[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009[*]EUR/USD Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009[*]GBP/USD Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009[*]USD/JPY Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009[*]USD/CHF Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2009January 2009[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2009[*]EUR/USD Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2009[*]GBP/USD Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2009[*]USD/JPY Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2009[*]USD/CHF Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2009December 2008[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, December 2008[*]EUR/USD (Monthly wave analysis, December 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly wave analysis, December 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, December 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly wave analysis, December 2008)November 2008[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, November 2008[*]EUR/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, November 2008[*]GBP/USD, Monthly Wave Analysis, November 2008[*]USD/JPY Monthly Wave Analysis, November 2008[*]USD/CHF Monthly Wave Analysis, November 2008October 2008[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, October 2008[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, October 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, October 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, October 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, October 2008)September 2008[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, September 2008[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, September 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, September 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, September 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, September 2008)August 2008[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, August 2008[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, August 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, August 2008)July 2008[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, July 2008[*]EUR/USD Monthly Wave Analysis, July 2008[*]GBP/USD Monthly Wave Analysis, July 2008[*]USD/JPY Monthly Wave Analysis, July 2008[*]USD/CHF Monthly Wave Analysis, July 2008June 2008[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, June 2008[*]EUR/USD Monthly Wave Analysis, June 2008[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, June 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, June 2008)May 2008[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, May 2008[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, May 2008)[*]USD/CHF Monthly Wave Analysis, May 2008April 2008[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, April 2008)March 2008[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, March 2008)February 2008[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, February 2008[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2008)January 2008[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January 2008[*]EUR/USD (Monthly, January)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly, January)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly, January)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly, January)December 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2007)November 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2007)[*]GBP/USD, (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2007)[*]USD/JPY, Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2007[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2007)October 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2007)[*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2007)September 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2007)[*]USD/JPY, (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2007)August 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2007)July 2007[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)June 2007[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2007May 2007[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2007April 2007[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2007February 2007[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2007January 2007[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2007December 2006[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2006November 2006[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2006October 2006[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, October, 2006September 2006[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, September, 2006August 2006[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, August, 2006July 2006[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2006June 2006[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, June, 2006May 2006[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, May, 2006April 2006[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, April, 2006March 2006[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, March, 2006February 2006[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, February, 2006January 2006[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006)[*]Monthly Wave Analysis, January, 2006December 2005[*]USDJPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]GBPUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]EURUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]USDCHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, December, 2005)[*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, December, 2005November 2005[*]USDJPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2005)[*]GBPUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2005)[*]EURUSD (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2005)[*]USDCHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, November, 2005)[*]MONTHLY Wave Analysis, November, 2005
Introduction
On large time frames it is quite difficult to analyze and predict price movement, as we have authentic data only within the last 30-35 years (sometimes even less). It restricts precision of evaluation of the current situation and forecasts precision, especially on large time frames.
As for the wave analysis relative price movement character is the main distinct feature of the FOREX market, which impacts global wave picture of currency pairs. A chart of any currency pair reflects the strength of one currency against the other. Permanent “forward and upward” movement is hardly probable (comparing with the stock index, where weak stocks are placed by strong ones). It is more probable that the cross rates of the main currencies are in the permanent global correction, forming a complicated many-year corrective structure and increasing the quantity of such waves counting. Within this structure different combinations of Elliott's patterns may be distinguished, they make it possible to analyze current situation and forecast further prices movement.
Moreover, peculiarities of the FOREX market, which have impact on the inner wave patterns structures, are: high marginality, currency interventions, twenty-four-hour trading within the business week.
Current Situation in the FOREX Market
Last year it was supposed (e.g. in Annual-05 (in Russian)), that price movement against the US Dollar may continue at least till 2010. Moreover, in Annual-05 (in Russian) it was forecasted that correction with depth about 38%-62% of the previous many-month movement would begin in 2005. This correction will last at least till March, 2006. Forecasted correction price depth was adjusted several times last year.
2005 forecast was confirmed. The US Dollar steadied within 2005 (from January to the end of the year).
This correction movement may be not completed yet, though judging by its wave structure, duration and depth, we may suppose that expected reversal point will be just a local high/low within the forming correction, not the final high/low of the whole correction. Though this high/low may have been formed already (for the European currencies – in November, for the yen – at the beginning of December, refer to Figure 1 in Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian).
It is difficult to compose EWA for 2006 as:
[*]It is not confirmed yet that movement in favor of the dollar, begun in January, 2005, has been completed. That is, the first high/low of correction (A)or(W) may be either projected point in March or the point in November-December, 2005.[*]Trend reverse, expected in March, 2006 is still a supposition, that is one of a variety of possible scenarios.[*]here is no data point to forecast expected prices movement against the US Dollar (supposedly, after March, 2006).
Thus, there is neither confirmed pivot point, nor first waves of a new trend, which could make a hint at further price movement direction.
Currently expectations of reverse of the trend against the dollar at the middle of March, 2006 still prevail. Further price movement will depend on different data, if, once the trend is reversed, completed three-wave pattern forms by November, 2006, its high/low may be the second high/low of many-month extended correction. In this case further prices movement may be defined with the help of the wave chart and mutual waves correlation. Otherwise the US Dollar decline may last at least till May, 2007.
I took the opportunity and revised the wave counting once again. I tried to simplify it without loss of inner wave structure and common sense.
In this article possible variants of renewed waves counting of higher degrees and their perspectives in 2006 are described.
Addition of April 10, 2006
Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in monthly and daily analyses.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show the probable price movements.
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2005 (in Russian)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking (in Russian)[*]Wave analysis (in Russian)Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 8, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Forecasted in Annual-05 price movement remained valid, having formed uptrend. The result is shown in Figure C1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108225403.gif
Figure C1. Final weekly chart of the WA, 2005.
Last year CHF movement schematic forecast is shown here for illustrative purposes.
Current wave analysis
In Figure C2 CHF survey wave counting is shown.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108225449.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on the monthly chart.
Price movement on the logarithmic scale fits in the wave pattern diagonal triangle. In case this supposition is correct, wave V may be either simple or double zigzag. In Figure C2 its schematic movement is shown in the shape of zigzag.
Wave may assume the shape of (expanded) flat or extended correction (refer to New Wave Pattern and New Classification of Extended Corrections in the FOREX Market.). Possible variants of development of correction first waves are shown on the weekly chart (refer to Figure C3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108225539.gif
Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main scenario.
Price is supposed to begin to spin around the virtual skewer, described in September, 2005 in “Imaginary Skewer”.
According to the main variant, the dollar may keep strengthening till the beginning (or middle) of March, 2006 in the shape of double zigzag (a pair of double zigzags) with further trend reverse against the dollar. Approximate targets are specified in Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian).
Further price movement forming will depend on many factors, though in case completed three-wave pattern is formed after trend reverse by November, 2006, its low may be the second terminal point of many-month extended correction. In this case price movement forecast will be revised in accordance with the wave analysis and mutual waves proportions. Otherwise, the US Dollar fall may last at least till May, 2007.
Though the first high of this correction (or the final high of the whole correction) was already formed in November, 2005, in accordance with the alternative variants which are not confirmed yet (refer to Figure C4 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108225634.gif
Figure C4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternative variants.
Further price decline and its fixing below wave (X) of low in Figure C4 (or X of (A) in Figure C3). Refer to Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian) for description of these variants. The end of October, 2006 is the check point for the alternative variants as well.
For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analyses.
Addition of April 10, 2006
Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2005 (in Russian)[*]FOREX forecast, 2006[*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking (in Russian)[*]Wave analysis (in Russian)Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 8, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Forecasted in Annual-05 price movement remained valid, having formed downtrend. The result is shown in Figure E1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108225811.gif
Figure E1. Final weekly chart of the WA, 2005.
Last year schematic forecast of EUR movement is shown here for illustrative purposes.
Current wave analysis
In Figure E2 EUR survey wave counting is shown.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108225909.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the monthly chart.
Prices in the gray rectangle are synthesized and they are not unique. That is why CHF pattern, diagonal triangle, should be better used on the monthly chart (refer to USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)), as EUR often repeats CHF behavior inversely.
In case this supposition is correct, wave V may be a simple or double zigzag. In Figure E2 its schematic movement is shown in the shape of zigzag.
Wave may assume the shape of (expanded) flat or extended correction (refer to New Wave Pattern and New Classification of Extended Corrections in the FOREX Market.). Possible variants of development of correction first waves are shown on the weekly chart (refer to Figure E3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108230002.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main scenario.
Price is supposed to begin to spin around the virtual skewer, described in September, 2005 in “Imaginary Skewer”.
According to the main variant, the dollar may keep strengthening till the beginning (or middle) of March, 2006 in the shape of double zigzag (a pair of double zigzags) with further trend reverse against the dollar. Approximate targets are specified in Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian).
Further price movement forming will depend on many factors, though in case completed three-wave pattern is formed after trend reverse by November, 2006, its high may be the second terminal point of many-month extended correction. In this case price movement forecast will be revised in accordance with the wave analysis and mutual waves proportions. Otherwise price advance may last at least till May, 2007.
Though the first low of this correction (or the final low of the whole correction) was already formed in November, 2005, in accordance with the alternative variants which are not confirmed yet (refer to Figure E4 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108230103.gif
Figure E4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternative variants.
Further price rise and its fixing above wave (X) of high in Figure E4 (or X of (A) in Figure E3) will confirm the alternative scenarios. Refer to Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian) for the mirror description of these variants. The end of October, 2006 is the check point for the alternative variants as well.
For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analyses.
Addition of April 10, 2006
Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2005 (in Russian)[*]FOREX forecast, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking (in Russian)[*]Wave analysis (in Russian)Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 8, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Forecasted in Annual-05 price movement remained valid, having formed downtrend. The result is shown in Figure G1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108230305.gif
Figure G1. Final weekly chart of the WA, 2005.
Last year schematic forecast of GBP movement is shown here for illustrative purposes.
Current wave analysis
In Figure G2 GBP survey wave counting is shown.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108230703.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on the monthly chart.
Price movement on the logarithmic scale fits in the wave pattern of global zigzag with wave (b) in the shape of horizontal triangle. In case this supposition is correct, wave e may be a simple or double zigzag. In Figure G2 its schematic movement is shown in the shape of zigzag.
Moreover, wave duration of the global triangle increased gradually up to the present moment. Thus, its final wave e, begun in June, 2001, may be at least as long as its previous wave d.
Wave may assume the shape of (expanded) flat or extended correction (refer to New Wave Pattern and New Classification of Extended Corrections in the FOREX Market.). Possible variants of development of correction first waves are shown on the weekly chart (refer to Figure G3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108230802.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main scenario.
Price is supposed to begin to spin around the virtual skewer, described at the beginning of July, 2005 in ( Arguments in favor of the soonest completion of two-month trend) and in September, 2005 in “Imaginary Skewer” This skewer is already stuck through three horizontal triangles.
According to the main variant, the dollar may keep strengthening till the beginning (or middle) of March, 2006 in the shape of double zigzag (a pair of double zigzags) with further trend reverse against the dollar. Approximate targets are specified in Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian).
Further price movement forming will depend on many factors, though in case completed three-wave pattern is formed after trend reverse by November, 2006, its high may be the second terminal point of many-month extended correction. In this case price movement forecast will be revised in accordance with the wave analysis and mutual waves proportions. Otherwise price advance may last at least till May, 2007.
Though the first low of this correction (or the final low of the whole correction) was already formed in November, 2005, in accordance with the alternative variants which are not confirmed yet (refer to Figure G4 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108230911.gif
Figure G4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternative variants.
Further price rise and its fixing above wave (X) of high in Figure G4 (or X of (A) in Figure G3) will confirm the alternative scenarios. Refer to Depth of the Current Retracement will specify further price movement (in Russian) for the mirror description of these variants. The end of October, 2006 is the check point for the alternative variants as well.
For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analyses.
Addition of April 10, 2006
Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2005 (in Russian)[*]FOREX forecast, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)][*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking (in Russian)[*]Wave analysis (in Russian)Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 8, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
Forecasted in Annual-05 price movement remained valid, having formed uptrend. The result is shown in Figure Y1.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108231059.gif
Figure Y1. Final weekly chart of the WA, 2005.
Last year JPY movement schematic forecast is shown here for illustrative purposes.
Current wave analysis
In Figure Y2 JPY survey wave counting is shown.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108231157.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the monthly chart.
Price movement on the logarithmic scale fits in the wave pattern impulse with wave IV in the shape of a horizontal triangle. In case this supposition is correct, its wave may be either simple or double zigzag, it may be triangle or any other type of extended correction (refer to New Wave Pattern and New Classification of Extended Corrections in the FOREX Market.). Possible variants of wave development are shown on the weekly chart (refer to Figure Y3 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108231244.gif
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main scenario.
According to the main variant, the dollar may keep strengthening till the beginning (or middle) of March, 2006 in the shape of double (triple) zigzag with further trend reverse against the dollar. Approximate targets are specified in Key Levels, Which Open New Targets (in Russian).
Further price movement forming will depend on many factors, though in case completed three-wave pattern is formed after trend reverse by November, 2006, its low may be the second terminal point of many-month extended correction (wave ). In this case price movement forecast will be revised in accordance with the wave analysis and mutual waves proportions. Otherwise the US Dollar decline may last, at least, till May, 2007.
Though the first high of the composed wave, a part of wave , or wave itself was formed in December, 2005, in accordance with the alternative variants which are not confirmed yet (refer to Figure Y4 below).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0601/060108231339.gif
Figure Y4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternative variants.
Further price decline and its fixing below wave (X) of low in Figure Y4 (or X of (A) in Figure Y3) will confirm the alternative scenarios. The end of October, 2006 is the check point for the alternative variants as well.
For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analyses.
Addition of March 9, 2006
Project Targets for 2006-2007, USDJPY (Wave Analysis)
Addition of April 10, 2006
Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs
Reference
[*]FOREX forecast, 2005 (in Russian)[*]FOREX forecast, 2006[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)][*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2006)[*]Wave Counting Marking (in Russian)[*]Wave analysis (in Russian)Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary, 8, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
General comments
From the point of view of the wave analysis relative nature of the price movement is the main distinct feature of the Forex market, which impacts the global wave picture of the currency pairs. The chart of any currency pair is the chart of the relative strength of one currency against the other one. Consequent “forward and upward” progressive movement, as in case of the stock index, where weak stocks are replaced by the strong ones, is hardly probable. It is most probable that cross-rates of the main currency pairs are in the state of the permanent global correction, forming a complicated many-year corrective structure and increasing the number of such wave counting variants. Inside this structure different combinations of Elliott's wave patterns can be specified, with the help of which current situation may be analysed and further prices movement may be projected.
Moreover, Forex high marginality, currency interventions and 24-hour trading within the business-week with trading activity depending on the session are the distinct features of the Forex market.
Current situation in the Forex market
For the pairs under consideration 2001 began with USD full scale downtrend. Now it may be assuming the shape of the global wave zigzag -- (JPY's wave patterns are a bit different, though their overall shape is much like this global zigzag).
Supposedly, the first leg of this zigzag, wave of the Primary level, was finished before 2005. Tricky wave-link has been forming since the beginning of 2005 (as for JPY, this movement is supposed to be the final wave of the global horizontal triangle, which is assuming the shape of the zigzag). It is pretty much clear that it may not be finished until the end of 2007 because its correction structures are really strong. Moreover, the end of 2007 may be not the final point.
As any wave correction, wave can be either a three or some combination of three wave groups. However there is no simple answer to which formation wave may take eventually (may be, except JPY, which movement is assuming the shape of the supposed zigzag ).
Now I can suppose that the first main sub-wave of wave for the European currencies has completed and assumed the shape of the triple zigzag (wave (A) or (W) of - prices movement in favor of USD). Its second sub-wave (wave (B) or (X) of - prices movement against USD) also has zigzag structure, though its completion is not confirmed yet. Unfortunately, the lack of such a confirmation increases the number of possible scenarios of the prices further movement. At the same time, formed wave structure makes it possible to specify the reference levels, the critical and confirmative ones, to annul or to confirm accepted scenarios, correspondingly. Moreover, with the help of the method of the key pulse points check points were specified (check point is the threshold of the date for this or that wave structure forming).
Thus, confirmation of completion of more than annual prices movement against the dollar (that is the fact of completion of wave (B) or (X) of for the main European currencies) is the main event expected in 2007 from the point of view prices movement forecasting.
Once the reference levels are broken or the check points are reached, further prices movement forecast should be adjusted (if necessary). E.g. as it was done in spring and autumn of 2006 once the check points were reached. Refer to the following articles:
[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007
I have taken the opportunity of adjusting my wave counting and I've tried to simplify it without loss of its inner wave structure and common sense.
In this article possible variants of adjusted wave counting on larger wave levels and perspectives of movement of the main currency pairs for 2007 are considered.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Results for 2006 (EWA)[*]USD/CHF (Annual, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Annual, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Annual, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Annual, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 14, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
For the results for 2006 refer to Results for 2006 (EWA)
Current variants of wave counting
Refer to Figure C1 below for CHF survey wave counting.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114173520.gif
Figure C1. Wave counting on the monthly chart.
In accordance with the logarithmic scale prices movement resembles a diagonal triangle. If it is true wave V may be either single or double zigzag. In Figure C1 its schematic movement is shown as a global single zigzag (refer to Figure C2 also). Its wave-link is being formed right now.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114173608.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
CHF has been in full scale downtrend since 2001. Now it may be assuming the shape of the global wave zigzag --. The first leg of this zigzag was finished before 2005. Tricky wave-link has been forming since the beginning of 2005. It is pretty much clear that it may not be finished until the end of 2007 because its correction structures are really strong. Moreover, the end of 2007 may be not the final point.
In accordance with the wave theory, wave can be either a three or some combination of three wave groups. However there is no simple answer to which formation wave may take eventually. Its first main sub-wave (A) or (W) of has assumed the shape of the triple zigzag. Its second sub-wave (B) or (X) of also has zigzag structure, though its completion is not confirmed yet.
The lack of such a confirmation increases the number of possible scenarios of the prices further movement. At the same time, formed wave structure makes it possible to specify the reference levels, the critical and confirmative ones, to annul or to confirm accepted scenarios, correspondingly. Moreover, with the help of the method of the key pulse points check points were specified (check point is the threshold of the date for this or that wave structure forming).
Let's consider the main scenarios of prices possible movement.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114173707.gif
Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.
Though wave (B) or (X) completion is not confirmed yet, chances are great that it has been completed. This scenario is considered to be an alternate one as there has been no confirmation. In this case wave (B) or (X) may be presented as a triple zigzag.
If the supposition is true then USD strengthening, begun in the shape of the supposed wave (C) or (Y) in December 2006, may continue in the shape of either an upward impulse or a diagonal triangle, as well as an upward corrective zigzag structure. The rebound of this first upward movement may be completed before March 17, 2007.
Price fixing above the confirmative level at 1.2768 will confirm the alternate scenario. Supposed ending of wave (B) or (X) at 1.1879 is the critical level for this variant. If price falls below this level, then wave (B) of may keep forming (refer to Figure C4).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114173807.gif
Figure C4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Unlike the alternative scenario, the main scenario suggests that wave (B) or (X) may continue to form in the shape of the downward zigzag structure. In this case the end of wave X of (B) is the critical level.
In the context of the main scenario, the end of wave (B) of may be expected in June, 2007. However, in case the downward impulse continues, the end of supposed wave Y of (B) of may be just a short break before the price zigzag falling (for example, in the shape of wave Z of (B) of ).
For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Results for 2006 (EWA)[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]EUR/USD (Annual, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Annual, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Annual, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 14, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
For the results for 2006 refer to Results for 2006 (EWA)
Current variants of wave counting
EURUSD prices before 1998 are synthesized and they are not unique. That is why on the monthly chart diagonal triangle has been taken as a suitable model for CHF (refer to Figure C1, (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)). It is known that in most cases EUR repeats inversly the behaviour of its “twin brother”.
Refer to Figure E1 for EUR wave counting on the weekly chart.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114173933.gif
Figure E1. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
EUR has been strengthening since 2001, this movement may be assuming the shape of the global wave zigzag --. The first leg of this zigzag was completed by the beginning of 2005. Tricky wave-link has been forming since the beginning of 2005. It is pretty much clear that it may not be finished until the end of 2007 because its correction structures are really strong. Moreover, the end of 2007 may be not the final point.
In accordance with the wave theory, wave can be either a three or some combination of three wave groups. However there is no simple answer to which formation wave may take eventually. Its first main sub-wave (A) or (W) of has assumed the shape of the triple zigzag. Its second sub-wave (B) or (X) of also has zigzag structure, though its completion is not confirmed yet.
The lack of such a confirmation increases the number of possible scenarios of the prices further movement. At the same time, formed wave structure makes it possible to specify the reference levels, the critical and confirmative ones, to annul or to confirm accepted scenarios, correspondingly. Moreover, with the help of the method of the key pulse points check points were specified (check point is the threshold of the date for this or that wave structure forming).
Let's consider the main scenarios of prices possible movement.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114174026.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.
Though wave (B) or (X) completion is not confirmed yet, chances are great that it has been completed. This scenario is considered to be an alternate one as there has been no confirmation. In this case wave (B) or (X) may be presented as a triple zigzag.
If the supposition is true then USD strengthening, begun in the shape of the supposed wave (C) or (Y) in December 2006, may continue in the shape of either a downward impulse or a diagonal triangle, as well as an upward corrective zigzag structure. The rebound of this first downward movement may be completed before March 17, 2007.
Price fixing below the confirmative level at 1.2482 will confirm the alternate scenario. Supposed ending of wave (B) or (X) at 1.3361 is the critical level for this variant. If price rises above this level, then wave (B) of may keep forming (refer to Figure E3).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114174112.gif
Figure E3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Unlike the alternative scenario, the main scenario suggests that wave (B) or (X) may continue to form in the shape of the upward zigzag structure. In this case the end of wave X of (B) is the critical level.
In the context of the main scenario, the end of wave (B) of may be expected in June, 2007. However, in case the uptrend continues, the end of supposed wave Y of (B) of may be just a short break before another price zigzag rise (for example, in the shape of wave Z of (B) of ).
For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Results for 2006 (EWA)[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]USD/CHF (Annual, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Annual, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Annual, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 14, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
For the results for 2006 refer to Results for 2006 (EWA)
Current variants of wave counting
Refer to Figure G1 for GBP survey wave counting.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114174250.gif
Figure G1. Wave counting on the monthly chart
It is quite possible that prices movement resembles a global zigzag pattern with wave (b) in the shape of the horizontal triangle. If it’s true then wave e may be either single or double zigzag. In Figure G1 its schematic movement is shown as a single zigzag (refer to Figure G2 also). Its wave-link is being formed right now.
Moreover, the length of the global triangle waves has been increasing with each new wave. Therefore it is quite probable that the final wave e of the global triangle, started in June 2001, would be at least the same length as the previous wave d.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114174337.gif
Figure G2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
GBP has been in full scale uptrend since 2001. Now it may be assuming the shape of the global wave zigzag --. The first leg of this zigzag was finished before 2005. Tricky wave-link has been forming since the beginning of 2005. It is pretty much clear that it may not be finished until the end of 2007 because its correction structures are really strong. Moreover, the end of 2007 may be not the final point..
In accordance with the wave theory, wave can be either a three or some combination of three wave groups. However there is no simple answer to which formation wave may take eventually. Its first main sub-wave (A) or (W) of has assumed the shape of the triple zigzag. Its second sub-wave (B) or (X) of also has zigzag structure, though its completion is not confirmed yet.
The lack of such a confirmation increases the number of possible scenarios of the prices further movement. At the same time, formed wave structure makes it possible to specify the reference levels, the critical and confirmative ones, to annul or to confirm accepted scenarios, correspondingly. Moreover, with the help of the method of the key pulse points check points were specified (check point is the threshold of the date for this or that wave structure forming).
Let's consider the main scenarios of price possible movement.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114174423.gif
Figure G3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.
Though wave (B) or (X) completion is not confirmed yet, chances are great that it has been completed. This scenario is considered to be an alternate one as there has been no confirmation. In this case wave (B) or (X) may be presented as a triple zigzag.
If the supposition is true then USD strengthening, begun in the shape of the supposed wave (C) or (Y) in December 2006, may continue in the shape of either a downward impulse or a diagonal triangle, as well as a downward corrective zigzag structure. The rebound of this first downward movement may be completed before March 17, 2007.
Price fixing below the confirmative level at 1.8515 will confirm the alternate scenario. Supposed ending of wave (B) or (X) at 1.9845 is the critical level for this variant. If price rises above this level, then wave (B) of may keep forming (refer to Figure G4).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114174520.gif
Figure G4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Unlike the alternative scenario, the main scenario suggests that wave (B) or (X) may continue to form in the shape of the upward zigzag structure. In this case the end of wave X of (B) is the critical level.
In the context of the main scenario, the end of wave (B) of may be expected in June, 2007. However, in case the uptrend continues, the end of supposed wave Y of (B) of may be just a short break before the price zigzag rise (for example, in the shape of wave Z of (B) of ).
For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Results for 2006 (EWA)[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]USD/CHF (Annual, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Annual, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Annual, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 14, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
For the results for 2006 refer to Results for 2006 (EWA)
Current variants of wave counting
Refer to Figure Y1 for JPY survey wave counting.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114174644.gif
Figure Y1. Wave counting on the monthly chart.
In accordance with the logarithmic scale prices movement resembles an impulse with wave IV in the shape of the supposed horizontal triangle. If it is true its wave may be either single or double zigzag (refer to Figure Y2). Moreover, the whole fourth wave IV of the impulse can form in the shape of either the double three (the alternate variant of wave counting is given in the upper part of chart Y1) or some extended correction.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114174728.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
JPY has been forming the final wave of the horizontal triangle in the shape of the supposed zigzag since 2005. It is pretty much clear that it may not be finished until the end of 2007 because its structure is really strong. Moreover, the end of 2007 may be not the final point.
The first leg (A) of of this zigzag was finished before 2005. Supposed wave-link (B) has been forming since that time. In accordance with the wave theory, wave (B) can be either a three or some combination of three wave groups. However there is no simple answer to which formation wave (B) may take eventually. Though judging by the inner wave structure of the following movement the character of further forming of waves (B) of and may be forecasted.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114174813.gif
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.
Wave (B) of may be completed already, forming of the final leg (C) of zigzag is in full swing.
If the supposition is true then USD strengthening, begun in the shape of the supposed wave (C) of in May 2006, may continue in the shape of either an upward impulse or a diagonal triangle. The rebound of the last upward movement may be completed before March 17, 2007.
In case uptrend continues after expected retracement the alternate scenario will be confirmed. Supposed ending of wave 2? at 114.42 is the critical level for this variant. If price falls below this level, then wave (B) of may keep forming (refer to Figure Y4).
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/0701/070114174858.gif
Figure Y4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Unlike the alternative scenario, the main scenario suggests that wave (B) of may continue to form. In this case the end of supposed wave of B is the confirmative level.
Character of further forming of wave (B) of may be projected by the inner wave structure of the supposed nearest downward movement. If expected downward wave C of (B) assumes the shape of the impulse or diagonal triangle, ending of the whole corrective wave (B) of will be highly probable.
In the context of the main scenario, the end of wave C of (B) may be expected in June, 2007.
For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2006[*]Possible nearest perspectives of the main currency pairs (EWA)[*]Check Point. USD Fall May Continue till May 2007[*]Results for 2006 (EWA)[*]Annual Wave Analysis, 2007[*]USD/CHF (Annual, 2007)[*]EUR/USD (Annual, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Annual, 2007)[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA) (in Russian)[*]Wave analysisDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 14, 2006The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Annual-07, was forming in accordance with the forecast. See Figure C1 for the result.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27335_3737.gif
Figure C1. Final daily chart for 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement half a year ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27335_3738.gif
Figure C2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.
The initial variant of the wave counting, considered in Annual-07, supposes that USD weakening finished at the end of April with wave (B) in the shape of the double zigzag. This scenario has not been annulled yet, though there is Achilles' heel in the shape of two simultaneous truncations: of wave of Y of (B) and wave Y of (B). Such a combination seems to be a bit tight and this scenario is hardly probable.
Supposed wave (B) ending is the critical level, wave X of (B) ending is the confirmatory one.
It is most probable that currently some extended horizontal correction is forming in the shape of a triangle or triple three. This supposition is basic to the following two scenarios.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27335_3739.gif
Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.
If supposed wave (B) assumes the shape of the double three with ending in the shape of the extended horizontal correction only the final wave of Y should form for this wave to be completed.
Wave of Y high is the critical level before wave of Y forming is completed. Wave of Y (1.1993) ending is the critical level for wave of the horizontal triangle. Though forming horizontal correction may be a triple three. In this case the area of the projected values, specified through correlation of its main waves, is marked with red-yellow ellipse in the chart (1.2115-1.1879).
Wave X of (B) ending will be the confirmatory level once horizontal correction is completed.
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Figure C4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.
The third and most probable variant from my point of view supposes further fall of the dollar once the horizontal triangle completes (or triple three) of Y.
In this case wave X of (B) ending is the critical level, wave of Y ending is the confirmatory one. The area of the projected values should be specified once wave of Y is completed.
Possible marking of the global impulse with wave (4) in the shape of the extended flat may serve as an argument in favor of the expected USD fall (see similar Figures E4, G4 of the euro and pound).
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Figure C5. Schematic wave counting marking on the monthly chart.
If the supposition is correct once wave 4 of (5) completes in the shape of the horizontal triangle the final downward price thrust will follow.
Supplement (scenario v.3, July 11, 2007)http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27335_3943.gif
Figure С6. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Supposed double zigzag (d) has not broken the critical level yet and scenario v.3 is still valid. The price may disturb the shape of the triangle. Moreover, the fact that the downward movement is impetuous allows us to treat it as an incomplete impulse (see the next picture).
In fact, if price transforms the last zigzag -- of y of (d) into an impulse (for it several additional waves of Micro-1 degree are required), shift to the alternate scenario will be reasonable (see the next picture).
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Figure С7. Wave counting on 480 min chart.
Price may form such an impulse (a) of of Y in the nearest future. In this case chances of scenario v.3-alt will increase significantly (see the next picture).
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Figure С8. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
According to scenario v.3 wave of Y of (B) may be assuming the shape of the double three rather than horizontal triangle as supposed before. By its external shape the double three is like the first waves of the contracting triangle (the so-called variant of the truncated triangle).
According to this alternate variant (let's call it v.3-alt because of slight differences from variant v.3) the price completes impulse (a) of of Y of (B) forming. Price should complete zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) of of Y of (B) forming to confirm this variant.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]Wave Analysis for the 2nd Half of 2007 [*]EUR/USD, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]GBP/USD, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]USD/JPY, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJune 30, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Annual-07, was forming in accordance with the forecast. See Figure Y1 for the result.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27336_3742.gif
Figure Y1. Final daily chart for 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement half a year ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27336_3743.gif
Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.
According to variant 1 upward wave (C) of zigzag is forming in the shape of the diagonal triangle. Unfortunately, wave of 3 of (C) completion has not been confirmed yet and possible schematic movement covers quite a wide range.
Wave 2 and wave (B) endings are the critical levels.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27336_3744.gif
Figure Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.
According to variant 2 wave (B) is assuming the shape of the running or extended flat, which wave B is almost completed. Though it has not been confirmed yet and price rise may continue. Currently wave B of (B) length makes 121% of wave A of (B) length, which is near the optimum value.
Completion of supposed wave C of (B) may be expected at the end of 2007, its length may make from 78% to 127% of wave B of (B) length. Once wave B of (B) completion is confirmed the area of the projected values may be specified.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]Wave Analysis for the 2nd Half of 2007 [*]EUR/USD, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]GBP/USD, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]USD/CHF, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJune 30, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Annual-07, was forming in accordance with the forecast. See Figure G1 for the result.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27337_3745.gif
Figure G1. Final daily chart for 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement half a year ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
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Figure G2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.
The initial variant of the wave counting, considered in Annual-07, supposes that USD weakening finished in the mid of April with wave (B) in the shape of the double zigzag. This scenario has not been annulled yet, though the price is near the critical level and it has not been confirmed yet.
The ending of supposed wave (B) is the critical level, wave X of (B) ending is the confirmatory level. If price falls and fixes below wave ? ending it will be an additional argument in favor of this variant.
At the same time the price has not broken the upward trend channel. It is most probable that zigzag-like construction forming has not completed yet. This supposition is basic to the following two scenarios.
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Figure G3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.
Supposed wave (B) may be assuming the shape of the double zigzag with wave Y of (B) in the shape of the triple zigzag. In this case only final wave of Y should be formed to complete the upward movement.
Wave of Y high is the critical level before wave of Y forming is completed. Wave of Y ending is the confirmatory level. The area of the projected values, specified through the correlation of the main waves of the double zigzag, is marked with red-yellow ellipse.
Should we consider this triple zigzag Y as a diagonal triangle (see Picture G4) the price should not overcome point 2.0569.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27337_3748.gif
Figure G4. Schematic wave counting marking on the monthly chart.
Variant of the wave counting of the global impulse with wave (4) in the shape of the extended flat and wave 5 of (5) completion in the shape of the diagonal triangle is possible.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27337_3749.gif
Figure G5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.
The third and most probable from my point of view variant supposes further fall of the dollar once horizontal correction XX of (B) is completed.
In this case wave X of (B) ending is the critical level, wave Y of (B) ending is the confirmatory one. The area of the projected values should be specified once wave XX of (B) is completed.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]Wave Analysis for the 2nd Half of 2007 [*]EUR/USD, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]USD/JPY, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]USD/CHF, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJune 30, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
In Annual-07 the price movement was in accordance with the forecast. See Figure E1 for the result.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27338_3750.gif
Figure E1. Final daily chart for 2007.
For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement half a year ago is given in the chart.
Current variant of wave counting
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27338_3751.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.
The initial variant of the wave counting, considered in Annual-07, supposes that USD weakening finished at the end of April with wave (B) in the shape of the double zigzag. This scenario has not been annulled yet, though it has not been confirmed either.
The ending of supposed wave (B) is the critical level, wave X of (B) ending is the confirmatory level. If price falls and fixes below wave ? ending it will be an additional argument in favor of this variant.
Though price has not broken the upward trend channel. It is most probable that zigzag-like construction forming has not completed yet. This supposition is basic to the following two scenarios.
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Figure E3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.
Supposed wave (B) may be assuming the shape of the double zigzag with wave Y of (B) in the shape of the triple zigzag. In this case only final wave of Y should be formed to complete the upward movement.
Wave of Y high is the critical level before wave of Y forming is completed. Wave of Y ending is the confirmatory level. The area of the projected values, specified through the correlation of the main waves of the double zigzag, is marked with red-yellow ellipse.
Should we consider this triple zigzag Y as a diagonal triangle (see Picture E4) the price should not overcome point 1.4063.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27338_3753.gif
Figure E4. Schematic wave counting marking on the monthly chart.
Possible variant of the wave counting of the global impulse with wave (4) in the shape of the extended flat (see picture 5-2 of my book) and wave 5 of (5) completion in the shape of the diagonal triangle.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/4/27338_3754.gif
Figure E5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.
The third and most probable from my point of view variant supposes further fall of the dollar once horizontal correction XX of (B) is completed.
In this case wave X of (B) ending is the critical level, wave Y of (B) is the confirmatory one. The area of the projected values should be specified once wave XX of (B) is completed.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]EUR/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Annual Wave Analysis, 2007)[*]Wave Analysis for the 2nd Half of 2007 [*]GBP/USD, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]USD/JPY, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]USD/CHF, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJune 30, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Introduction
In Annual-07 it was supposed that:
«…confirmation of completion of more than annual prices movement against the dollar (that is the fact of completion of wave (B) or (X) of for the main European currencies) is the main event expected in 2007 from the point of view prices movement forecasting.»
Moreover, two key pulse points were published in this article, they served as temporary guides for possible ending of the dollar fall.
In the first half of the year price movement of the pairs under consideration was within the frames of the annual forecast, a month ago the second check point fell behind (June 2, 2007) and completion of the dollar downtrend has not been confirmed. Thus, long-term USD downtrend is still valid for the major currencies.
At the same time, as it has been mentioned already in the previous articles, within the periods of expected trend breakout the number of possible variants of the wave counting increases significantly and scenarios become more vulnerable.
As the current scenarios are vulnerable and wave picture on small time-frames is unsteady three most probable from my point of view scenarios will be described in the forecast for the 2nd half of 2007.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
[*]FOREX Forecast for 2007[*]EUR/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]GBP/USD (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]USD/JPY (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]USD/CHF (Monthly Wave Analysis, July, 2007)[*]EUR/USD, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]GBP/USD, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]USD/JPY, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]USD/CHF, for the 2nd Half of 2007[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007[*]Check point. Normal flight.[*]Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007[*]Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives[*]Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007)[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott's Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJune 30, 2007When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
Possible scenarios of the currency pairs under consideration are given in The review of the bigger Time-Frames .
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Fig.C1. Survey wave counting. Variant 1.
Refer to Figure C1 for the most probable from my point of view scenario. I have been holding to it for several years already. Supposedly the dollar’s global decline is of zigzag mode, in the form of diagonal triangle or triple zigzag and currently the ending zigzag -- of V is forming.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29463_7185.gif
Fig.C2. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 1.
What shape wave of V will assume isn’t known yet. But judging by the amplitude of wave (B) of , it may be an expanding or running wave flat, and also some variation of extended wave correction.
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Fig.C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.
But if we consider wave (B) of as a counteractive wave of a large wave pattern , then such a wave may develop only in a corrective mode. From this point view the variant of counting wave (B) of in the form of ordinary zigzag seems to be interesting.
If the supposition is true to complete the second leg of zigzag — impulse C of (B) the price should form ending waves and of C of (B). As a distinctive feature of this scenario we may suppose that wave mustn’t be deep and won’t leave the territory of wave (iv) of of C of (B) until zigzag A-B-C of (B) completes forming.
Otherwise the whole downward section of 2 last years may appear to be not the supposed incomplete corrective structure but some completed trend pattern, for example an impulse.
From the point of view of the wave theory such a variant of scenario is quite possible and is considered below, in the context of scenarios 2 and 3.
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Fig.C4. Survey wave counting. Variant 2.
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Fig.C5. Survey wave counting. Variant 3.
It is the possibility to present the downward section of the chart since the end of 2005 in the form of a completed impulse (see Figures C6 andC7) that allows to take it for either the first wave (1) of the second leg of zigzag V — scenario 3 in Figure C5, or entirely for the ending leg of zigzag V — scenario 2 in Figure C4.
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Fig.C6. Wave counting on the monthly chart . Variants 2 and 3.
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Fig.C7. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variants 2 and 3.
The counting of two-year downward section of the chart in the form if a completed impulse is possible with minimum strains.
If wave of 5 doesn’t decide to form a downward extension, then as a distinctive feature of scenarios 2 and 3 we may suppose that the price will break out the territory of wave (iv) of of C of (B). Besides in case scenario 3 proves to be true forming of the so called Elliott’s double retracement isn't ruled out (blue dashed arc in Figure C7).
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Abbreviations
«Annual-08» — «Annual Wave Analysis, 2008»
«Monthly-1207» — «Monthly Wave Analysis for December 2007»
«Daily-280406» — «Daily Wave Analysis for 28.04.06»
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]EUR/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual, 2008)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 20, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Possible scenarios of the currency pairs under consideration are given in The review of the bigger Time-Frames .
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29464_7202.gif
Fig.Y1. Survey wave counting. Variant 1.
The wave picture of the Japanese yen doesn’t rule out that the global horizontal triangle IV will continue to develop and to complete it the price supposedly needs to complete forming of the ending zigzag of IV.
It is fair to say that if the price breaks the upper critical level (drawn by the top of wave of IV) it may lead to substitution of the triangle for a triple three without principal change of the further expected price movement (see tables 3.1 and 3.2 of my book).
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Fig.Y2. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 1.
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Fig.Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly wave (B) of of the triangle is completed. But the wave structure on the smaller time-frames allows the price decline to the 103.91 mark before a large upward trend starts (see the article Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit/Risk Ratio).
At the same time the completion of the last downward diagonal structure allows to suppose that the upward trend of the dollar’s consolidation may be much more large-scale that it is supposed in scenario 1.
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Fig.Y4. Survey wave counting. Variant 2.
In this case we have to deviate from the already customary downward global impulse and to adjust the general wave counting of the yen to a corrective form. If the supposition is true then a global double or triple three, and not a global impulse, is developing with a double upward zigzag x.
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Fig.Y5. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 2.
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Fig.Y6. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2.
Then after a large horizontal triangle of x, which is almost completed, we should expect the ending upward zigzag of x, comparable by size with zigzag of x.
But if the price adds on the ending downward zigzag in Figure Y6 of diagonal triangle C of (E) to an impulse (having added only a pair of downward waves of corresponding structure), the whole downward price movement in the second half of 2007 may be easily presented in the form of a downward wedge (see Figure Y9, below), that may dramatically change our expectations (see Figures Y7..Y9, below).
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Fig.Y7. Survey wave counting. Variant 3.
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Fig.Y8. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3.
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Fig.Y9. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.
In fact a wedge is always a forerunner of a new trend, to which it sets the direction. In this case it isn’t ruled out that horizontal triangle completed in the middle of 2007. And now after the completion of the wedge and a modest upward correction the dollar’s decline may again continue with a new strength. The 103.91 level considered in the article Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit/Risk Ratio is critical for the completion of the wedge.
I hope the forming wave structure will prompt in advance which scenario the price will choose.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Abbreviations
«Annual-08» — «Annual Wave Analysis, 2008»
«Monthly-1207» — «Monthly Wave Analysis for December 2007»
«Daily-280406» — «Daily Wave Analysis for 28.04.06»
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]EUR/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual, 2008)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit/Risk Ratio (USD/JPY) [*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 20, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
Possible scenarios of the currency pairs under consideration are given in The review of the bigger Time-Frames .
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29465_7195.gif
Search of an optimal variant of counting has led to change of the wave counting of the pound. Global double or triple three may be forming, and currently we are in the ending wave of the supposed horizontal expanding triangle of x, which is a link in the upward double zigzag x.
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http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29465_7197.gif
The wave structure of the upward price movement for the several last years allows to suppose that impulse C of (D) is completed (and upward zigzag (D) of is completed too), and currently the ending wave (E) of expanding triangle is forming. It may assume the shape of an ordinary or double zigzag.
At the same time the completion of the two-year upward price movement doesn’t rule out that the price may move in accordance with one of the alternative scenarios, shown in the Figures G4..G7, below.
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http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29465_7199.gif
The difference between the alternative scenarios 2 and 3 lies in what the last two-year upward price movement may be considered to be, wave C of of x in whole — variant 2 in Figure G4 or only its first wave 1 of C of of x — variant 3 in Figure G5.
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http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29465_7201.gif
The difference of the considered variants lies in the depth of the current consolidation of the dollar. For the first scenario a consolidation to the extent of ~30 figures is expected while for the second scenario to the extent of 100 figures. For the third scenario after a corrective consolidation of the dollar of 10-15 figures again a stage of its global weakening may start. I hope the forming wave structure will prompt in advance which scenario the price will prefer.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Abbreviations
«Annual-08» — «Annual Wave Analysis, 2008»
«Monthly-1207» — «Monthly Wave Analysis for December 2007»
«Daily-280406» — «Daily Wave Analysis for 28.04.06»
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]EUR/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual, 2008)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit/Risk Ratio[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 20, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
As the survey EUR counting mirror variants of CHF counting given in The review of the bigger Time-Frames may be considered.
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Figure E1. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 1.
Supposedly the dollar’s global decline is of zigzag mode, in the form of diagonal triangle or triple zigzag and currently the ending zigzag -- of V is forming. What shape wave of V will assume isn’t known yet. But judging by the amplitude of wave (B) of , it may be an expanding or running wave flat, and also some variation of extended wave correction.
http://www.alpari-forex.com/files/pic/docs/8/29466_7192.gif
Figure E2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.
But if we consider wave (B) of as a counteractive wave of a large wave pattern , then such a wave may develop only in a corrective mode. From this point view the variant of counting wave (B) of in the form of ordinary zigzag seems to be interesting.
If the supposition is true to complete the second leg of zigzag — impulse C of (B) the price should form ending waves and of C of (B). As a distinctive feature of this scenario we may suppose that wave mustn’t be deep and won’t leave the territory of wave (iv) of of C of (B) until zigzag A-B-C of (B) completes forming.
Otherwise the whole downward section of last 2 years may appear to be not the supposed incomplete corrective structure but some completed trend pattern, for example an impulse.
From the point of view of the wave theory such a variant of scenario is quite possible and is considered below, in the context of scenarios 2 and 3.
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Figure E3. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 2 and 3.
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Figure E4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2 and 3.
It is the possibility to present with minimum strains the upward section of the chart since the end of 2005 in the form of a completed impulse (see Figures E3 and E4) that allows to take it for either the first wave (1) of the second leg of zigzag V — scenario 3, or entirely for the ending leg of zigzag V — scenario 2.
If wave of 5 doesn’t decide to form an upward extension, then as a distinctive feature of scenarios 2 and 3 we may suppose that the price will break out the territory of wave (iv) of of C of (B). Besides in case scenario 3 proves to be true forming of the so called Elliott’s double retracement isn't ruled out (blue dashed arc in Figure E4).
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Abbreviations
«Annual-08» — «Annual Wave Analysis, 2008»
«Monthly-1207» — «Monthly Wave Analysis for December 2007»
«Daily-280406» — «Daily Wave Analysis for 28.04.06»
Reference
[*]The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual, 2008)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit/Risk Ratio[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 20, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.
General comments
From the point of view of the wave analysis relative nature of the price movement is the main distinct feature of the Forex market, which impacts the global wave picture of the currency pairs. The chart of any currency pair is the chart of the relative strength of one currency against the other one. Consequent “forward and upward” progressive movement, as in case of the stock index, where weak stocks are replaced by the strong ones, is hardly probable. It is most probable that cross-rates of the main currency pairs are in the state of the permanent global correction, forming a complicated many-year corrective structure and increasing the number of such wave counting variants. Inside this structure different combinations of Elliott's wave patterns can be specified, with the help of which current situation may be analyzed and further prices movement may be projected.
Moreover, Forex high marginality, currency interventions and 24-hour trading within the business-week with trading activity depending on the session are the distinct features of the Forex market.
Current situation in the Forex market
For the currency pairs under consideration the 21st century began with the USD full scale downtrend, which for the European currencies was of a rather impetuous nature. By now according to the wave picture on the big time-frames the beginning of a new trend in favor of the US dollar in the near term is not ruled out .
Depending on the depth and duration of the expected USD strengthening we can single out three main scenarios of the currency pairs movement. Let’s consider them in detail.
Note. Here all the charts of the currency pair USD/CHF and general considerations about it are true for the currency pair EUR/USD, but as in a mirror reflection (except for the exact absolute values of the EUR/USD chart itself, which you can found in the corresponding section).
1. Large correction on the back of the USD global declining (v.1)The most probable from my point of view scenario belongs to this group. It has been under consideration for the last several years, despite of difference of possible of variants of wave counting. It suggests the beginning of a large scale consolidation for the USD in the near term approximately 30 figures deep. . Possible (but not the only ones!) variants of wave counting of the currency pairs under consideration are shown in the pictures i1..i3, below.
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Pic. i1. Wave Counting on the monthly chart and long term forecast for USD/CHF. Variant 1.
The Swiss franc traditionally fits in a downward diagonal triangle which can be considered to be a triple zigzag too. If the supposition is true then at present the ending zigzag V is forming, more precisely, its wave-link of V, which connects the legs of zigzag and of V.
What shape wave of V will assume isn’t known yet. But judging by the amplitude of wave (B) of of V, it may be an expanding or running wave flat, and also some kind of extended wave correction.
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Pic. i2. Wave Counting on the monthly chart and long term forecast for GBP/USD. Variant 1.
Permanent search of an optimal variant of counting has led to changing of the pound’s wave counting. Supposedly global double or triple three is forming, and currently we are in the ending wave of the supposed horizontal expanding triangle of x, which is a link in the ascending double zigzag x.
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Pic. i3. Wave Counting on the monthly chart and long term forecast for USD/JPY. Variant 1.
The Japanese yen doesn’t rule out that the global horizontal triangle IV will continue to develop, and to complete it the price needs to complete forming of the ending zigzag of IV.
It is fair to say that if the price breaks the upper critical level (drawn by the top of wave of IV) it may lead to substitution of the triangle for a triple three without principal change of the further expected price movement (see tables 3.1 and 3.2 of my book).
2. The dollar’s global decline has completed (v.2)The scenario suggesting that the dollar’s global decline will complete in the near term and its large scale consolidation will begin belongs to this group. It suggests the beginning in the near term of the dollar’s global consolidation approximately 100 figures deep. Possible (but not the only ones!) variants of wave counting of the currency pairs under consideration are shown in the pictures i4..i6, below.
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Pic. i4. Wave Counting on the monthly chart and long term forecast for USD/CHF. Variant 2.
Theoretically we can’t rule out that global diagonal triangle has completed, but in this case the second leg of zigzag V constitutes only ~38% of the length of its first leg of V, and the impulse of V itself is rather clumsy. Besides, in contracting diagonal triangles the price tries to break the lower forming line, while in our case 20 figures more left to reach it.
Everything said above doesn’t allow to bring to the forefront such kind of scenario.
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Pic. i5. Wave Counting on the monthly chart and long term forecast for GBP/USD. Variant 2.
The completion of the global double zigzag x isn’t ruled out. A rather clumsy impulse (C) of of x is an alerting feature of the given counting.
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Pic. i6. Wave Counting on the monthly chart and long term forecast for USD/JPY. Variant 2.
In this scenario we have to deviate from the already customary downward global impulse and to adjust the general wave counting of the yen to a corrective form. If the supposition is true then a global double or triple three, and not a global impulse, is developing with a double upward zigzag x.
In such a case currently the wave link of x has already formed in the form of a horizontal triangle with all ensuing consequences.
3. The dollar’s global decline continues (v.3)The scenario suggesting that the dollar continues to fall after a modest correction, belongs to this group. It suggests the beginning in the near-term of the dollar’s corrective consolidation no more than 10-15 figures deep. Possible (but not the only ones!) variants of wave counting of the currency pairs under consideration are shown in the pictures i7..i9, below.
I think this scenario is demonstrably reflected in the charts i7..i9 and no additional comments are required.
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Pic. i7. Wave Counting on the monthly chart and long term forecast for USD/CHF. Variant 3.
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Pic. i8. Wave Counting on the monthly chart and long term forecast for GBP/USD. Variant 3.
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Pic. i9. Wave Counting on the monthly chart and long term forecast for USD/JPY. Variant 3.
Thus, the main expected event of the year 2008 from the point of view of forecasting movements of the currency pairs under consideration will be the confirmation of one of the considered scenarios..
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Abbreviations
«Annual-08» — «Annual Wave Analysis, 2008»
«Monthly-1207» — «Monthly Wave Analysis for December 2007»
«Daily-280406» — «Daily Wave Analysis for 28.04.06»
Reference
[*]EUR/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]GBP/USD (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/JPY (Annual, 2008)[*]USD/CHF (Annual, 2008)[*]Imaginary Skewer[*]Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction[*]The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios[*]Wave analysis[*]Elliott’s Code: Wave Analysis of the FOREX Market[*]Wave Counting Marking[*]Methods of Price Movement Projection (EWA)[*]How to Apply EWA ForecastsDmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.comJanuary 18, 2008When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.