- 金币:
-
- 奖励:
-
- 热心:
-
- 注册时间:
- 2006-7-3
|
|
楼主 |
发表于 2009-4-22 17:36
|
显示全部楼层
General comments
From the point of view of the wave analysis relative nature of the price movement is the main distinct feature of the Forex market, which impacts the global wave picture of the currency pairs. The chart of any currency pair is the chart of the relative strength of one currency against the other one. Consequent “forward and upward” progressive movement, as in case of the stock index, where weak stocks are replaced by the strong ones, is hardly probable. It is most probable that cross-rates of the main currency pairs are in the state of the permanent global correction, forming a complicated many-year corrective structure and increasing the number of such wave counting variants. Inside this structure different combinations of Elliott's wave patterns can be specified, with the help of which current situation may be analysed and further prices movement may be projected.
Moreover, Forex high marginality, currency interventions and 24-hour trading within the business-week with trading activity depending on the session are the distinct features of the Forex market.
Current situation in the Forex market
For the pairs under consideration 2001 began with USD full scale downtrend. Now it may be assuming the shape of the global wave zigzag [A]-[B]-[C] (JPY's wave patterns are a bit different, though their overall shape is much like this global zigzag).
Supposedly, the first leg of this zigzag, wave [A] of the Primary level, was finished before 2005. Tricky wave-link [B] has been forming since the beginning of 2005 (as for JPY, this movement is supposed to be the final wave [E] of the global horizontal triangle, which is assuming the shape of the zigzag). It is pretty much clear that it may not be finished until the end of 2007 because its correction structures are really strong. Moreover, the end of 2007 may be not the final point.
As any wave correction, wave [B] can be either a three or some combination of three wave groups. However there is no simple answer to which formation wave [B] may take eventually (may be, except JPY, which movement is assuming the shape of the supposed zigzag [E]).
Now I can suppose that the first main sub-wave of wave [B] for the European currencies has completed and assumed the shape of the triple zigzag (wave (A) or (W) of [B] - prices movement in favor of USD). Its second sub-wave (wave (B) or (X) of [B] - prices movement against USD) also has zigzag structure, though its completion is not confirmed yet. Unfortunately, the lack of such a confirmation increases the number of possible scenarios of the prices further movement. At the same time, formed wave structure makes it possible to specify the reference levels, the critical and confirmative ones, to annul or to confirm accepted scenarios, correspondingly. Moreover, with the help of the method of the key pulse points check points were specified (check point is the threshold of the date for this or that wave structure forming).
Thus, confirmation of completion of more than annual prices movement against the dollar (that is the fact of completion of wave (B) or (X) of [B] for the main European currencies) is the main event expected in 2007 from the point of view prices movement forecasting.
Once the reference levels are broken or the check points are reached, further prices movement forecast should be adjusted (if necessary). E.g. as it was done in spring and autumn of 2006 once the check points were reached. Refer to the following articles:
I have taken the opportunity of adjusting my wave counting and I've tried to simplify it without loss of its inner wave structure and common sense.
In this article possible variants of adjusted wave counting on larger wave levels and perspectives of movement of the main currency pairs for 2007 are considered.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
January 14, 2006 The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd.
Introduction
For the results for 2006 refer to Results for 2006 (EWA)
Current variants of wave counting
Refer to Figure C1 below for CHF survey wave counting.
Figure C1. Wave counting on the monthly chart.
In accordance with the logarithmic scale prices movement resembles a diagonal triangle. If it is true wave V may be either single or double zigzag. In Figure C1 its schematic movement is shown as a global single zigzag (refer to Figure C2 also). Its wave-link [B] is being formed right now.
Figure C2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.
CHF has been in full scale downtrend since 2001. Now it may be assuming the shape of the global wave zigzag [A]-[B]-[C]. The first leg [A] of this zigzag was finished before 2005. Tricky wave-link [B] has been forming since the beginning of 2005. It is pretty much clear that it may not be finished until the end of 2007 because its correction structures are really strong. Moreover, the end of 2007 may be not the final point.
In accordance with the wave theory, wave [B] can be either a three or some combination of three wave groups. However there is no simple answer to which formation wave [B] may take eventually. Its first main sub-wave (A) or (W) of [B] has assumed the shape of the triple zigzag. Its second sub-wave (B) or (X) of [B] also has zigzag structure, though its completion is not confirmed yet.
The lack of such a confirmation increases the number of possible scenarios of the prices further movement. At the same time, formed wave structure makes it possible to specify the reference levels, the critical and confirmative ones, to annul or to confirm accepted scenarios, correspondingly. Moreover, with the help of the method of the key pulse points check points were specified (check point is the threshold of the date for this or that wave structure forming).
Let's consider the main scenarios of prices possible movement.
Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Alternate variant.
Though wave (B) or (X) completion is not confirmed yet, chances are great that it has been completed. This scenario is considered to be an alternate one as there has been no confirmation. In this case wave (B) or (X) may be presented as a triple zigzag.
If the supposition is true then USD strengthening, begun in the shape of the supposed wave (C) or (Y) in December 2006, may continue in the shape of either an upward impulse or a diagonal triangle, as well as an upward corrective zigzag structure. The rebound of this first upward movement may be completed before March 17, 2007.
Price fixing above the confirmative level at 1.2768 will confirm the alternate scenario. Supposed ending of wave (B) or (X) at 1.1879 is the critical level for this variant. If price falls below this level, then wave (B) of [B] may keep forming (refer to Figure C4).
Figure C4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. The main variant.
Unlike the alternative scenario, the main scenario suggests that wave (B) or (X) may continue to form in the shape of the downward zigzag structure. In this case the end of wave X of (B) is the critical level.
In the context of the main scenario, the end of wave (B) of [B] may be expected in June, 2007. However, in case the downward impulse continues, the end of supposed wave Y of (B) of [B] may be just a short break before the price zigzag falling (for example, in the shape of wave Z of (B) of [B] ).
For more information refer to Monthly and Daily Wave Analysis.
Reference
January 14, 2006 The ideas given above are purely informational purpose only. This report was translated by Natalya.
Do not reproduce without explicit permission of Alpari Ltd. |
|
|
[复制链接]
