设为首页收藏本站术道有方官网
开启辅助访问 会员交流 切换到窄版

MACD俱乐部

登录  立即注册  找回密码

QQ登录

搜索
MACD俱乐部»论坛 › ◇ 技术分析区 ◇ › 〖期货技术交流〗 › 一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手
1 ...1753175417551756175717581759... 1982下一页
返回列表 发新帖
楼主: hefeiddd

一个笨蛋的股指交易记录-------地狱级炒手

  [复制链接]
hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:09 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Reversal and price movement, supposed in Monthly-0807 was forming in accordance with the forecast. The result is given in Figure C1.


Figure C1. Final daily chart of August forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-07(2) and article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction.

Figure C2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-alt2.

According to variant 3-alt2 forming of the downward wave (B) is not completed yet, currently supposed wave X of (B) is forming in the shape of the skewed triangle or another extended horizontal correction that will be specified by the depth of the final wave [e] of X (see tables 3-1 and 3-2 of my book).

Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt2.

Supposedly at the present moment upward double zigzag [e] of X is forming. By the end of September is may reach 1.25 mark.
At the same time wave [d] of X completion is not confirmed yet, that is why the alternate scenario should be also taken into account (see the next chart).

Figure C4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Local alternate scenario of variant 3-alt2.

Within the local alternate variant downward wave [d] of X may keep forming simultaneously with the alternate variants of the other currency pairs.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0607 developed exactly within the forecast. The result you may see in the picture Y1.


Figure Y1. Final daily chart of August forecast, 2007

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of the JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.

The current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-07(2).

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 2

According to the scenario 2 the wave B of large wave flat (B) of [E] has completed. If the supposition is true at the moment the downward final wave C of (B) in the shape of impulse is forming. An additional argument in favor of this scenario is the expectation of the dollar’s weakening against the European currencies. As the downward impulse C of (B) will be forming new basic data for defining more exactly the project area will appear.
The price has already met the minimum requirements for flats and the current pattern may be treated as a completed running wave flat. However the expected simultaneity in the furhter movement of the dollar’s pairs (refer to Introduction) enables us to suppose that the yen’s downtrend may continue.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant of scenario 2

Several possible variants of wave counting of the downward section are shown on the chart. The expected Elliott’s double retracement (see the picture 2-8 of my book) is an additional argument in favor of the accepted scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0807 schematically remained within the forecast. However due to the depth of the dollar strengthening we may return to the initially preferred scenario v.3 [см. Annual-07(2)]. This fact was revealed in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction and daily forecasts. The result is given in picture G1.




For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.

The current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyze Zigzag Wave Construction. .



According to scenario 3 upward wave (B) keeps forming, currently supposed wave XX of (B) is forming. Wave X of (B) ending is the critical level before wave XX forming completes.
Currently the price is at the bifurcation point and it is not clear yet which of scenarios possible for wave XX of (B) the price will choose. It may be either some kind of the flat (extended or running) or an extended horizontal correction (see the next pictures).



The last upward movement [wave (iv) in Figure E3] was crushed at the very end, allowing to regret to interpret it either as a narrow double zigzag or a bit strained impulse. That is why both variants should be taken into account until the wave picture becomes clear.
The last upward movement may be treated as an impetuous double zigzag (iv) of [c] without any strains. In this case till the end of September downward movement may form in the shape of a narrow zigzag construction which won't break the critical levels and complete diagonal triangle [c] of XX. As the result wave XX of (B) may assume the shape of the flat, alternation guidelines Complicated-Simple-Most Complicated will be followed В результате волна XX of (B) может принять форму волновой плоскости с соблюдением указания по чередованию С-П-СС (see table 4-2 of my book).
It should be noted that the amplitude of the supposed wave of XX is slightly outside the framework of statistics for 95% of similar wave flats (see the table 4-3 of my book), which is an alerting factor.



At the same time if with some strains we suppose that the last upward movement is impulse (a) of [d] then it will be most probable that wave XX of (B) is assuming the shape of the extended wave correction ( see tables 3-1 and 3-2 of my book).
In this case a shallow downward correction (b) of [d] with further completion of upward zigzag [d] should be expected to form till the second half of September .
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0807 schematically remained within the forecast. Though due to the depth of the dollar strengthening we may return to the initial preferred scenario v.3 [see Annual-07(2)]. This fact was revealed in article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction and daily forecasts. The result is given in picture E1.


Figure E1. Final daily chart of August forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.

According to scenario 3 upward wave (B) keeps forming, currently supposed wave XX of (B) is forming. Wave X of (B) ending is the critical level before wave XX forming completes.
Currently the price is in the bifurcation point and it is not clear yet what scenario possible for wave XX of (B) the price will choose. It may be either some kind of the flat (extended or running) or an extended horizontal correction (see the next pictures).

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

The last upward movement [wave (iv) in Figure E3] was crushed at the very end, that is why it may be treated either as a narrow double zigzag or a bit strained impulse. That is why both variants should be taken into account until the wave picture becomes clear.
The last upward movement may be treated as an impetuous double zigzag (iv) of [c] without any strains. In this case till the end of September downward movement may form in the shape of the narrow zigzag construction which won't break the critical levels and complete diagonal triangle [c] of XX. As the result wave XX of (B) may assume the shape of the flat, alternation guidelines Complicated-Simple-Most Complicated will be followed (see table 4-2 of my book).

Figure E4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.

At the same time if with some strains we suppose that the last upward movement is impulse (a) of [d] then it will be most probable that wave XX of (B) is assuming the shape of the extended wave correction (see tables 3-1 and 3-2 of my book).
In this case a shallow downward correction (b) of [d] with further completion of upward zigzag [d] should be expected to form till the second half of September.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 2, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
It should be noted that until now there are no reasons to speak of end of the trend against the USD. During the summer several most probable scenarios of movement of the main dollar pairs, considered in Annual-07(2), by turns came to the fore. At the moment preference is given to the scenarion v.3 for the European currencies, the ground of which is stated in the article Analysing a zigzag wave construction.
Below You may see the survey wave pictures of the currencies under consideration where I tried to make a durable schematic forecast in the form of synchronized price movement. To make it easier to compare the currencies are divided into direct and reverse dollar pairs.
Direct dollar pairs








The euro’s and pound’s rise on the back of the dollar’s weakening since the end of the 2005 year has formed a sweeping upward pattern, supposedly, a triple zigzag.
In this pattern sections of the dollar’s rise (green lines), which are correctional towards the dominant price movement, appeared to be isolated centers of resistance against prevailing trend.
Reverse dollar pairs







Please note, that in JPY and CHF sections of the dollar’s rise (heavy green lines), which are correctional towards the dominant trend, has formed a common correctional pattern of a senior level.
For the CHF it is a wave-link X of (B) in the shape of supposed skewed triangle, that divides the big double zigzag into halves. And for the JPY it is the wave B of (B) of supposed extended wave plane.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Abbreviations
Annual-07 — Annual wave analysis for 2007
Annual -07(2) — forecast for the second half of 2007 Monthly-1206 — Monthly wave analysis for December 2006
Daily-280406 — Daily wave analysis for 28.04.06


Reference


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:17 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:14 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Reversal and price movement, supposed in Monthly-0907 was forming in accordance with the forecast. The result is given in Figure C1.


Figure C1. Final daily chart of September forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-07(2) and article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .

Figure C2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

In the picture we can see that the supposed downward zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) has almost completed. The wave structure gives several arguments in favor of this supposition:
  • impulses (A) and (C) are fully completed,
  • price in expanding diagonal triangles as a rule doesn’t reach the lower forming line, and we can see it in the supposed diagonal triangle 5 of (C),
  • impulse (C) is approximately equal to impulse (A) in length, supposing an almost ideal zigzag.
This is one of the suppositions that are the basis for the scenario with the developing corrective wave X. If the supposition is true in October a deep upward corrective wave [e] of X is expected to form (see the picture below).
Inspite of my preference of this scenario, there are no confirmation of the completeion of the whole downward movement that has been developing since the beginning of September. It means that if the following correction is modest and short term, the downward movement may continue, transforming zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) in an impulse or in a narrow double zigzag. In such case I will have to prefer one of the alternate scenarios.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Local alternate variant of scenario 3-alt2.

Several variants of counting of the corrective knot, shown in the picture, are possible. The accepted variant will be confirmed if the price immediately reverses upward, than fixes over the upper forming line of trend channel of the wave (y) of [d], and then crosses the confirming level.
Ideally, a rather deep corrective wave [e] of X witn ending above the 1.1919 mark must form (the ending if the wave W, refer to the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction ).
If the price downward movement continues after a short term correction one of the alternate variants may becaome preferable.
Thus it is the depth of the expected correction that will determine the further scenario of price movement.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 30, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0907 developed exactly within the forecast. The result you may see in the picture Y1.


Figure Y1. Final daily chart of September forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of the JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.

The current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2.

Practically horizontal correction that has been forming since the middle of August, insistently supposes furher decline of the price after its completion. The correction itself may be the fourth wave of an impulse or a wave link of a big downward zigzag.
However if the yen as the dollar pair continues to move synchronously with the European currencies under consideration, then an upward double or triple zigzag (w)-(x)-(y)-(xx)-(z) may form.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 30, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0907 was forming in accordance with the forecast. The result is given in Figure G1.


Figure G1. Final daily chart of September forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .

Figure G2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

In the picture we can clearly see that the supposed upward zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) has almost completed. The wave structure gives several arguments in favor of this supposition:
  • impulse (a) and diagonal triangle (c) are fully completed,
  • price in expanding diagonal triangles as a rule doesn’t reach the upper forming line, and we can see it in the supposed diagonal triangle (c),
  • diagonal triangle (c) is approximately equal to impulse (a) in length, suggesting a an almost ideal zigzag.
This is one of the suppositions that are the basis for the scenario with the developing corrective wave XX. If the supposition is true in October a deep downward corrective wave [e] of XX is expected to form (see the picture below).
Inspite of my preference of this scenario, there are no confirmation of the completeion of the whole upward movement that has been developing since the middle of August. It means that if the following correction is modest and short term, the upward movement may continue, transforming zigzag (a)-(b)-(c) in an upward impulse or in a narrow double zigzag. In such case I will have to prefer one of the alternate scenarios.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.

Several variants of counting of the corrective knot, shown in the picture, are possible. The accepted variant will be confirmed if the price immediately reverses downward, than fixes below the lower forming line of trend channel of the wave [d], and then crosses the confirming levels.
Ideally, a rather deep corrective wave [e] of XX witn ending below the 2.0130 mark (the top of the wave Y) must form.
If the price upward movement continues after a short term correction one of the alternate variants may becaome preferable (it is shown in the chart with the grey color).

Thus it is the depth of the expected correction that will determine the further scenario of price movement.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 30, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-0907 was forming in accordance with the forecast. The result is given in Figure E1.


Figure E1. Final daily chart of September forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .

Figure E2. Wave counting on 120 min chart.

In the picture we can clearly see that the supposed upward zigzag a-b-c has almost completed. The wave structure gives several arguments in favor of this supposition:
  • impulses «a» and «c» are fully completed,
  • diagonal triangle [5] of c has formed a classical finishing thrust of price, which has broken the upper forming line,
  • impulse «c» is approximately equal to impulse «a» in length, suggesting an almost ideal zigzag.
This is one of the suppositions that are the basis for the scenario with the developing corrective wave XX. If the supposition is true in October a deep downward corrective wave [e] of XX is expected to form (see the picture below).
In spite of my preference of this scenario, there is no confirmation of the completeion of the whole upward movement that has been developing since the beginning of September. It means that if the following correction is modest and short term, the upward movement may continue, transforming zigzag a-b-c into an impulse or in a narrow double zigzag. In such case I will have to pass one of the alternate scenarios.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-alt.

A corrective knot, given in the picture, may be marked differently. The accepted scenario will be confrimed if the price reverses downwards immediately and then fix below the lower forming line of the trend channel of wave [d] and then cross the confirmatory levels.
Ideally, a rather deep corrective wave [e] of XX witn ending below the 1.3678 mark (the top of the wave Y) must form.
If the price upward movement continues after a short term correction one of the alternate variants may becaome preferable (it is shown in the chart in the grey color).
Thus it is the depth of the expected correction that will determine the further scenario of price movement.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 30, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
It should be noted that there are no reasons to say that the trend against the dollar is completed. In summer several most probable scenarios, considered in Annual-07(2), came into the forefront by turns. Currently scenario v.3 is preferable for the European currencies and scenario v.2 for the yen, the reasons of it are given in article Let's Analyse Zigzag Construction.
Below in the charts I have marked the nearest possible targets of the pairs under consideration with the help of Wolfe waves. It should be noted that the price usually tends to the targets, projected with the help of Wolfe method, though it does not always reach it.


Figure 1. Possible targets for EUR/USD.



Figure 2. Possible targets for GBP/USD.



Figure 3. Possible targets for USD/JPY.



Figure 4. Possible targets for USD/CHF.


Possible scenarios and targets according to Elliott's wave theory are given in the corresponding parts of this forecast.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 30, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.


[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:20 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:16 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Local trend reversed upwards in the specified point as it was supposed in Monthly-1007. The result is given in picture C1.


Figure C1. Final 120 min chart of October forecast, 2007.

Though upward movement was not quite linear and the expected wave pattern did not manage to complete in October. The result is given in picture C2.

Figure C2. Final daily chart of October forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to Annual-07(2) and article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .
At the moment two variants are equally probable. I suppose the depth of the expected correction will help choose one of them.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-1.

The first variant in accordance with scenario v.3 keeps forming correction X in the shape of the skewed triangle (or triple three) after which the final downward double zigzag Y of (B) is expected.

Figure C4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-1.

To confirm this variant the price should reverse upwards in the nearest future and break 1.1919 level in the shape of wave [e] of X.

Figure C5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-2.

According to the second variant correction X is not so long as it was expected at first and it is completed in the shape of the horizontal triangle. In this case the first zigzag [w] of Y of the final double zigzag Y of (B) is also completed.

Figure C6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-2.

To confirm this variant price should also reverse upwards in the nearest future though its rise should not be as high as in the first variant. The area around 1.20 will be optimal for wave [x] of Y of (B) ending.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 28, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
The price movement supposed in Monthly-1007 developed in exactly accordance with the forecast. The result You may see in the picture Y1.


Figure Y1. Final daily chart of October forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of the JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.

The current variant of the wave counting
For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .
Just as for the European currencies there is a pair of equally probable scenarios for the Japanese yen and the depth of the expected correction will help to choose one of them.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2-1.

The first variant within the scenario v.2 supposes that the upward corrective wave [ii] of C will continue to form in the shape of a triple zigzag. In this case the upward movement may reach the upper limit of the channel of this correction.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 2-2.

The second variant on the contrary doesn’t exclude that the correction [ii] has completed already in the form of a double zigzag. In this case the expected upward correction (ii) of [iii] won’t be so deep as in the first case.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Imaginary Skewer Check point. USD fall may continue till May 2007 Check point. Normal flight. Possible perspectives of the European currencies for 2007 Check Point, Intermediate Results and Nearest Perspectives Alternate but Real Weakening of the Dollar till the End of the Summer (or the End of 2007) Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 28, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:18 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The downward turn of the local trend supposed in Monthly-1007 took place exactly at the specified point. The result is given in Figure G1.


Figure G1. Final 240 min chart of October forecast, 2007.

However the downward movement wasn’t fully straight-line and the expected wave pattern failed to complete during October. The result is given in Figure G2.

Figure G2. Final daily chart of October forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement a month ago is given in the chart.

The current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .
At the present there is a pair of almost equally probable scenarios. Perhaps the depth of the expected correction will help to choose one of them.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-1.

The first variant within the scenario v.3 supposes that the correction XX in the shape of a running triangle (or triple three) will continue to form, and after it the ending upward double zigzag Z of (B) is expected.

Figure G4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-1.

To confirm this variant the price must turn down in the near term and get over the mark 2.0130 in the form of the wave [e] of XX.

Figure G5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-2.

The second variant, on the contrary, doesn’t exclude that the correction XX appeared to be not so continuous, as it had been expected before, and is completed in the shape of a double three. In this case the first zigzag [w] of Z of the ending double zigzag Z of (B) may be also completed.

Figure G6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-2.

To confirm this variant the price must also turn down in the near-term, but its decent may be not so deep as in the first variant. The area around the mark 2.01 will be optimal for the ending of the wave [x] of Y of (B).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 28, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.





Introduction
The downward turn of the local trend supposed in Monthly-1007 took place exactly at the specified point. The result is given in Figure E1.


Figure E1. Final 120 min chart of October forecast, 2007.

However the downward movement wasn’t fully straight-line and the expected wave pattern failed to complete fully during October. The result is given in Figure E2.

Figure E2. Final daily chart of October forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement a month ago is given in the chart.

The current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of EUR refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article Let's Analyse Zigzag Wave Construction .
At the present there is a pair of almost equally probable scenarios. Perhaps the depth of the expected correction will help to choose one of them.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-1.

The first variant within the scenario v.3 supposes that the correction XX in the shape of a skewed triangle (or triple three), after which the ending upward double zigzag Z of (B) is expected.

Figure E4. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-1.

To confirm this variant the price must turn down in the near term and get over the mark 1.3678 in the form of wave [e] of XX.

Figure E5. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-2.

The second variant, on the contrary, doesn’t exclude that the correction XX appeared to be not so continuous, as it had been expected before, and is completed in the shape of a double three. In this case the first zigzag [w] of Z of the ending double zigzag Z of (B) may be also completed.

Figure E6. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-2.

To confirm this variant the price must also turn down in the near-term, but its decent may be not so deep as in the first variant. The area around the mark 1.38 will be optimal for the ending of the wave [x] of Y of (B).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 28, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.





Introduction
It should be noted that there are no reasons to say that the trend against the dollar is completed. In summer several most probable scenarios of behaviour of the main dollar pairs, considered in Annual-07(2), came into the forefront by turns. Currently scenario v.3 is preferable for the European currencies and scenario v.2 for the yen, the reasons of it are given in article Let's Analyse Zigzag Construction.
Judging by the wave picture local correction in favor of the dollar seems to be urgent. Its depth may help choose one of the most probable scenarios considered in the correspondent parts of this forecast.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release . This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
October 28, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:23 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:19 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-1107 was not confirmed. That is why in the second half of November the wave counting was adjusted (see article The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios).

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios.


Figure C1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.imp1.

According to the first scenario forming of downward global impulse [A] is not completed yet, currently corrective wave [iv] of 5 of (5) of wave [A] is forming.
If global downward impulse [A] does not complete till the end of spring 2008 this scenario may be adjusted.

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant v.imp1.

Supposedly, the third wave [iii] of the final impulse 5 has assumed the shape of the impulse with extensions in its third wave (iii) of [iii] and fifth one (v) of [iii]. Thus, the so-called Elliott's double retracement may form till mark 1.16 and backwards, confirming the accepted scenario indirectly.
That is why in December upward correction [iv] of 5 should be expected to complete, may be in the shape of the zigzag, and then downward impulse 5 may be expected to continue. Impulse 5 ending may be projected once its wave [iv] of 5 is completed.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.imp.2.

According to the alternate variant global downward price movement is completed in the shape of impulse [A] and global corrective wave starts forming. Supposed ending of wave [A] is the critical level for this scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



Introduction
The price movement supposed in Monthly-1107 developed exactly in accordance with the forecast. The result You may see in the picture Y1.


Figure Y1. Final daily chart of November forecast, 2007.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of the JPY movement a month ago is given in the chart.

Current variant of wave counting
For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to Annual-07(2) and in the article The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.diag.1.

According to the first scenario forming of a large expanded wave flat (B) of [E] is not completed yet, its downward wave C of (B) is forming in the shape of diagonal triangle, and at present corrective wave [iv] of this diagonal triangle is forming.
If expanded wave flat (B) of [E] does not complete till the end of spring 2008 this scenario may be adjusted.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant v.diag.1.

Third wave [iii] of C of the possible diagonal triangle C of (B) proved to be shorter than the first wave of C, supposing wave [v] of C to be the shortest from the ongoing waves of the diagonal triangle. However its 5 ending may be projected only once wave [iv] of C is completed.
At the same time scenario with wave C of (B) in the shape of diagonal triangle supposes crossing of waves [iv] and and target for the ending of wave [iv] at around 114 mark.
That is why in December upward correction [iv] of C should be expected to complete, may be in the shape of the zigzag, and then downward diagonal triangle C of (B)may be expected to continue.

Figure Y4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.imp.2.

According to the alternate variant large wave flat (B)may be completed and conclusive wave (C) of zigzag [E] starts forming. Supposed ending of wave (B) is the critical level for this scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-28 16:25 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:20 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-1107 was not confirmed. That is why in the second half of November the wave counting was adjusted (see article The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios).

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios.


Figure G1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.imp1.

According to the first scenario forming of upward global impulse [A] is not completed yet, currently corrective wave 4 of (5) of wave [A] is forming.
If global upward impulse [A] does not complete till the end of spring 2008 this scenario may be adjusted.

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant v.imp1.

Supposedly corrective wave 4 may assume the shape of double or triple zigzag. The first zigzag [w] of 4 and wave –link [x] of 4 are completed already. Second downward zigzag [y] of 4 started to form.
That is why in December downward correction 4 should be expected to complete, may be in the shape of double zigzag, and then upward impulse 5 may be expected to continue. Impulse 5 ending may be projected once its wave 4 is completed.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.imp2.

According to the alternate variant global upward movement is completed in the shape of impulse [A] and global corrective wave starts forming. Supposed ending of wave [A] is the critical level for this scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
Price movement, supposed in Monthly-1107 was not confirmed. That is why in the second half of November the wave counting was adjusted (see article The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios).

Current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios.


Figure E1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.imp1.

According to the first scenario forming of upward global impulse [A] is not completed yet, currently corrective wave [iv] of 5 of (5) of wave [A] is forming.
If global upward impulse [A] does not complete till the end of spring 2008 this scenario may be adjusted.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant v.imp1.

Supposedly, the third wave [iii] of the final impulse 5 has assumed the shape of the impulse with extensions in its third wave (iii) of [iii] and fifth one (v) of [iii]. Thus, the so-called Elliott's double retracement may form till mark 1.43 and backwards, confirming the accepted scenario indirectly.
That is why in December downward correction [iv] of 5 should be expected to complete, may be in the shape of the zigzag, and then upward impulse 5 may be expected to continue. Impulse 5 ending may be projected once its wave [iv] of 5 is completed.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant v.imp2.

According to the alternate variant global upward movement is completed in the shape of impulse [A] and global corrective wave starts forming. Supposed ending of wave [A] is the critical level for this scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.

Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
It should be noted that there are no reasons to consider the trend against the dollar completed. Moreover, the current wave picture was adjusted because of its steady fall, it was described in article The Impulsive Decline of the Dollar as One of the Possible Scenarios.
Judging by the wave picture on smaller time-frames, supposedly, local correction in favor of the dollar is urgent. Its depth may help choose one of the most probable scenarios, considered in this article.
Note
This report reveals the analyst opinion of the situation at the moment of its release. This report is subject to change, it will be reflected in daily analyses or in additional articles in Wave analysis.
It should be remembered that EWA forecasts show probable price movements.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
December 1, 2007
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 06:41 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:23 | 显示全部楼层
Introduction
The Elliott’s double retracement supposed in Monthly-1207 was executed exactly in accordance with the forecast. The result You may see in Figure C1.


Figure C1. Final daily chart of December 2007 - January 2008 forecast.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of CHF movement two months ago is given in the chart.

The current wave counting
For the survey CHF wave counting refer to Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual WA for 2008).

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The fourth wave [iv] of impulse C may have begun to form. But so far there is no confirmation that wave [iii] of C has completed to form.
The detailed wave counting on the smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans can be seen in the daily forecasts.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 21, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



Introduction
The reversal of local trend in the area of 114 mark supposed in Monthly-1207 was implemented exactly in accordance with the forecast. The result can be seen in Figure Y1.


Fig.Y1. Final daily chart of December 2007 -January 2008 forecast

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of JPY movement two months ago is given in the chart.

Current wave counting
For the survey JPY wave counting refer to Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual WA for 2008).

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The upward wave (C) may have started to form. But so far there is no confirmation of the completion of the diagonal triangle C of (B). The 103.91 mark is a critical level for it (see the article Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit/Risk Ratio).
The detailed wave counting on the smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans can be seen in the daily forecasts.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 21, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
The price decline supposed in Monthly-1207 remained within the forecast. The result can be seen in Figure G1.


Figure G1. Final daily chart of December 2007 - January 2008 forecast.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of GBP movement two months ago is given in the chart.

Current wave counting
For the survey GBP wave counting refer to Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual WA for 2008).

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The fourth wave [iv] of impulse A may have begun to form. But so far there is no confirmation of the completion of wave [iii] of A.
The detailed wave counting on the smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans can be seen in the daily forecasts.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 21, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
The Elliott’s double retracement supposed in Monthly-1207 was implemented exactly in accordance with the forecast. The result you may see in Figure E1.


Figure E1. Final daily chart of December 2007 - January 2008 forecast.

For illustrative purposes schematic forecast of EUR movement two months ago is given in the chart.

The current wave counting
For the survey EUR wave counting refer to Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual WA for 2008).

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The fourth wave [iv] of impulse C may have started to form. But so far there is no confirmation of the completion of wave [iii] of C.
The detailed wave counting on the smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans can be seen in the daily forecasts.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 21, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




Introduction
The wave picture on the bigger time-frames suggests a reversal of trend in the near term and the beginning of the dollar’s consolidation phase. The depth of this consolidation will determine the further long term scenario for the currency pairs under considerationр (see Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual WA for 2008)).
The details of the reversal possible scenarios are considered in the corresponding sceations.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
January 21, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 06:43 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 12:25 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008).


Figure C1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Wave [iii] may have completed and the fourth wave [iv] of impulse C may have started forming. If the supposition confirms correction [iv] may last until the second half of April 2008. Perhaps the structure of its first waves will give a cue what shape it will assume.
As so far there is no confirmation of the completion of wave [iii] of C, the alternate variant isn’t ruled out yet (refer to the Figure below).

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternative variant .

As an alternative within the limits of scenario v.1 it is possible to suggest that wave (v) will form in the form of the second extension of impulse [iii]. Such a variant is rare, but quite possible taking into consideration negative fundamental indicators for the US dollar.
As a similar example of an impulse with two extensions impulse (iii) in the same Figure can be considered (refer to section 2.2.4. of my book).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Upward wave (C) may have started to form. But so far there is no confirmation of the completion of diagonal triangle C of (B). The critical level for it is the 103.91 mark (refer to the article Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation ).

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternative variant .

As an alternative within the limits of scenario v.1 the descending diagonal triangle may continue forming. In this case the ending of wave [iv] may form in the area of the first target 113 (refer to the article Possible Trade with an Excellent Profit-Risk Correlation ).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008).


Figure G1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Wave [iv] may have completed and the ending wave [v] of impulse A? may have started to form.
But it is also quite possible that wave [iii] will continue to form (this variant is plotted in the bottom section of the chart). The price movement according to this scenario is more synchronous with the other European currencies. If this supposition confirms wave А? may last until the second half of April 2008.

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternative variant.

Taking into consideration negative fundamental indicators for the US dollar as an alternative it is possible to suggest that wave [iv] will continue to form in the shape of a zigzag construction.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008).


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Wave [iii] may have completed and the fourth wave [iv] of impulse may have begun to form. If the supposition confirms correction [iv] may last until the second half of April 2008. Perhaps the structure of its first waves will give a cue what shape it will assume.
As so far there is no confirmation of the completion of wave [iii] of C, an alternate variant isn’t ruled out yet (refer to the Figure below).

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Alternative variant.

As an alternative within the limits of scenario v.1 it is possible to suggest that wave (v) will form in the form of the second extension of impulse [iii]. Such a variant is rare, but quite possible taking into consideration negative fundamental indicators for the US dollar.
As a similar example of an impulse with two extensions impulse (iii) in the same Figure can be considered (refer to section 2.2.4. of my book).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



Introduction
The wave picture on bigger time frames supposes the trend reversal in the near term and the beginning of the US dollar consolidation phase. The depth of this consolidation will determine the further long –term scenario of the currency pairs under consideration (refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)).
The details of possible scenarios of the reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 06:46 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 13:35 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure C1.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The wave structure doesn’t rule out that wave [v] of C is close to its completion unless it decides to form an extension. The weak point of this counting is the fact that the length of wave [iv] of C is less than the length of wave [ii] of C.
The confirmation of the completion of impulse С will allow to make possible scenarios of further price movement more precise.

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1-2.

As an alternative within the framework of scenario v.1 we may suppose that only third wave [iii] is completing. In this case correction [iv] may last until the second half of April. But a running triangle (iv) of [iii] is a rare variant of the so called truncated triangle (a pattern in which two last waves are either absent or incomparably small against its firs waves), that doesn’t allow to bring this variant to the forefront.
The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

If wave С in the shape of a diagonal triangle is forming then at the moment its third wave must be completing. In this case price rise in a corrective mode to the 110-112 marks should be expected in the near term.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Persepective variant.

But in the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak? the variant with a downward zigzag which is close to its completion was considered in detail.
The confirmation of this scenario should be expected this month.
The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure G1.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Downward impulse A? may be completed. In this case the weakening of the pound may be synchronous with the other currency pairs under consideration.

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1-2.

But it isn’t ruled out that only wave [iv] of A is completing. In this case forming of a downward ending wave [v] in the shape of an impulse or a diagonal triangle should be expected.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.





The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The wave structure doesn’t rule out that wave [v] of C is close to its completion unless it decides to form an extension. The weak point of this counting is the fact that the length of wave [iv] of C is less than the length of wave [ii] of C.
The confirmation of the completion of impulse С will allow to make possible scenarios of the further price movement more precise.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1-2.

The wave structure doesn’t rule out that wave [v] of C is close to its completion unless it decides to form an extension. The weak point of this counting is the fact that the length of wave [iv] of C is less than the length of wave [ii] of C.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.


Introduction
The wave picture on the bigger time frames supposes the trend reversal in the near term and the beginning of the US dollar consolidation phase. The depth of this consolidation will determine the further long –term scenario of the currency pairs under consideration. (refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the back streak?. The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
February 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 06:50 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 16:56 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure C1.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The wave structure doesn’t rule out that wave [v] of C is close to its completion unless it decides to form an extension. The weak point of this counting is the fact that the length of wave [iv] of C is less than the length of wave [ii] of C.
The confirmation of the completion of impulse С will allow to make possible scenarios of further price movement more precise.

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1-2.

As an alternative within the framework of scenario v.1 we may suppose that only third wave [iii] is completing. In this case correction [iv] may last until the second half of April. But a running triangle (iv) of [iii] is a rare variant of the so called truncated triangle (a pattern in which two last waves are either absent or incomparably small against its firs waves), that doesn’t allow to bring this variant to the forefront.
The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.


The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

If wave С in the shape of a diagonal triangle is forming then at the moment its third wave must be completing. In this case price rise in a corrective mode to the 110-112 marks should be expected in the near term.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Persepective variant.

But in the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak? the variant with a downward zigzag which is close to its completion was considered in detail.
The confirmation of this scenario should be expected this month.
The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.


The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure G1.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

Downward impulse A? may be completed. In this case the weakening of the pound may be synchronous with the other currency pairs under consideration.

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1-2.

But it isn’t ruled out that only wave [iv] of A is completing. In this case forming of a downward ending wave [v] in the shape of an impulse or a diagonal triangle should be expected.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article USD. A pause or the end of the black streak?.


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1.

The wave structure doesn’t rule out that wave [v] of C is close to its completion unless it decides to form an extension. The weak point of this counting is the fact that the length of wave [iv] of C is less than the length of wave [ii] of C.
The confirmation of the completion of impulse С will allow to make possible scenarios of the further price movement more precise.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 1-2.

The wave structure doesn’t rule out that wave [v] of C is close to its completion unless it decides to form an extension. The weak point of this counting is the fact that the length of wave [iv] of C is less than the length of wave [ii] of C.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari IDC Corp. is obligatory.



[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 06:56 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 16:58 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure C1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.

In the latter article it was explained why scenario v.3 considered previously is preferred at the moment. In the framework of this scenario downward impulse 3 of (3) of [C] may be forming.

Figure C1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

Wave counting on the daily time frame doesn’t rule out the completion of wave (iii) of [v] of 3. If this is the case correction (iv) may last till the second half of April.
The critical level is the ending of the supposed wave (i) of [v] of 3 (1.0836).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.

In the latter article it was explained why scenario v.3 considered previously is preferred at the moment. In the framework of this scenario downward impulse (or diagonal triangle) V may be forming.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

Wave counting on the daily time frame doesn’t rule out the completion of wave 3 of (3). If this is the case correction 4 of (3) may last till the second half of April.
The critical level is the ending of the supposed wave 1 of (3) (104.96) and the ending of the supposed wave (1) of [3] (107.19).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure G1. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In the latter article it was supposed that if the GBP/USD pair rises synchronously with other major currencies the preferred scenario will be further forming of upward impulse (C) in the form of an impulse or diagonal triangle 5 of (C).

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Wave counting on the daily time frame doesn’t rule out the completion of either wave (i) of [iii] of 5 of the impulse or wave of 5 of the diagonal triangle. If this is the case correction (ii) of impulse (or [ii] diagonal triangle) may last till the second half of April.
The critical level is the ending of the supposed wave [ii] of 5 (1.9361) and the ending of the supposed wave 4 (1.9336).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure E 1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.

In the latter article the explanation why scenario v.3 considered previously is preferred at the moment. In the framework of this scenario upward impulse 3 of (3) of [C] may be forming.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

Wave counting on the daily time frame doesn’t rule out the completion of wave (iii) of [v] of 3. If this is the case correction (iv) may last till the second half of April.
The critical level is the ending of the supposed wave (i) of [v] of 3 (1.4822).
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




Introduction
The depth of the dollar’s strengthening proved to be rather insignificant bringing to the forefront scenario v.3 (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008)).
The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
March 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 06:57 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:01 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure C1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.

In the framework of scenario v.3 a downward impulse 3 of (3) of [C] may be forming.

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

At the moment corrective wave (iv) of [v] of 3 is completing. The following arguments can be given in the favor of this supposition:
  • the completeness of the wave structure of wave (iv) of [v] of 3 — a proportional zigzag a-b-c of (iv) of [v] of 3 is formed.
  • the price broke the border of the trend channel of impulse [v] of 3.
  • corrective waves of the supposed impulse [v] of 3 demonstrate the alternation by the depth and shape (wave (ii) — expanding wave flat 37%, wave (iv) — zigzag and reached the 62% mark).
  • oscillator MACD 5-34-5 went to the positive territory.
The ending of the supposed wave (i) of [v] of 3 (1.0836) remains the critical level.
If the supposition of the completion of wave (iv) of [v] of 3 is confirmed in the nearest future the projection of the ending of wave (v) of [v] of 3 should be looked for in the area of the 0.95 value (if wave (v) of [v] of 3 doesn’t decide to form an extension). Otherwise the accepted scenario should be reconsidered.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.


The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.

In the framework of scenario v.3 a downward impulse may be forming (or a diagonal triangle) V.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

At the present corrective wave 4 of (3) of [3] of V is completing. The following arguments can be given in the favor of this supposition:
  • the completeness of the wave structure of wave 4 of (3) — the double proportional zigzag w-x-y of 4 of (3) is formed.
  • the price broke the border of the trend channel of the impulse (3).
  • corrective waves of the supposed impulse (3) demonstrate the alternation by depth (wave 2 — 36%, wave 4 — approached the 78% mark).
  • oscillator MACD 5-34-5 went to the positive territory.
Moreover the price raided into the territory of wave 1. Of course short-term intercross of wave 1 and 4of an impulse is allowed on marginal markets but direct attention to the alternation of corrections on the given downward section of the chart by their inclination and depth:
  • wave [2] — almost horizontal, not deep.
  • wave (2) of [3] — with inclination of 45 grades, deep.
  • wave 2 of (3) of [3] — almost horizontal, not deep.
  • wave 4 of (3) of [3] — with inclination of 45 grades, very deep.
Such a wave structure, maximum depth of the last correction 4 of (3) and the price movement to the critical level (108.58) suggest the alternate variant of forming of the downward wave V in the shape of a diagonal triangle (refer to the Figure below).

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt..

In this case almost horizontal corrections are wave-links inside zigzags [1] and [3]. While steeper correction unite these zigzags in a large downward diagonal triangle (wave [2] and [4]).
In case the price approaches the 108 mark the chances of the alternate diagonal triangle will increase considerably while in case the price breaks the critical level at 108.58 it will be brought to the forefront.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure G1. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

The price is reluctant to go up forming since the end of the last year the successive set of zigzags and spittering them virtually. That’s why without canceling the scenario considered in the preceding forecast (refer to Monthly-0408), I would like to consider a rather perspective variant with a large horizontal triangle.
Supposedly wave 4 of (C) is completed. The following argument can be given in the favor of this supposition :
  • the completeness of the wave structure of wave 4 — a contracting horizontal triangle is formed.
  • the price is near the border of the trend channel of impulse (C).
  • corrective waves of the supposed impulse (C) demonstrate alternation by depth and shape (wave 2 — zigzag 89%, wave 4 — horizontal triangle 39%).
  • oscillator MACD 5-34-5 went to the negative territory.
The ending of the supposed wave [a] of 4 (1.9336) is the critical level.

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart.

Unfortunately so far there is no confirmation of the completion of this triangle. Consequently the price may continue further development of its ending structure and rewrite the endings of waves [c], [d] и [e] of 4.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure E1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3.

In the framework of scenario v.3 upward impulse 3 of (3) of [C] may be forming.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

At the present corrective wave (iv) of [v] of 3 is completing. The following arguments can be given:
  • the completion of the wave structure of wave (iv) of [v] of 3 — a pattern is formed that on the given time frame can be considered a proportional flat a-b-c of (iv) of [v] of 3.
  • the price broke the border of the trend channel of impulse [v] of 3.
  • corrective waves of the supposed impulse [v] of 3 demonstrate the alternation by depth (wave (ii) — 75%, wave (iv) — reached only the 38% mark).
  • oscillator MACD 5-34-5 went to the negative territory.
The ending of the supposed wave (i) of [v] of 3 (1.4822) remains the critical level.
If the supposition of the completion of wave (iv) of [v] of 3 is confirmed in the nearest future the projection of the possible ending of wave (v) of [v] of 3 should be looked for in the area of the 1.60 value (if wave (v) of [v] of 3 doesn’t decide to form an extension). Otherwise the accepted scenario should be reconsidered.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




Introduction
Up to the present moment there is no confirmation of the completion of the correction in the favor of the dollar that has been developing since the second half of March. However its wave structure and the current depth allows to bring scenario v.3 to the forefront and expect the beginning of a new stage of the weakening of the US dollar (refer to The review of the bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008)) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008)).
The confirmation of the completion of the correction and the beginning of a new stage of the wakening of the US dollar are the expected events at the beginning of May 2008.
The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 3, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 06:59 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:04 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure C1.Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

In order scenario v.3, considered in the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) and Monthly-0508, may confirm its right to exist the price has to complete the downward wave (v) of [v] in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle.
Taking into consideration the depth of correction ii of (v) of [v], proximity of the critical level and the upward impulsive direction of the price at the moment the alternate scenario also given in the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) seems to be the most probable.

Figure C2.Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of variant 3-a the upward correction may develop to the 1.11 mark in the form of a double or triple zigzag.

Figure C3.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.



Figure C4.Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-a.

Taking into consideration its sizes against the adjacent waves of the downward impulse we may suppose that corrective wave 4 of (3) of [C] is forming. This wave four may reach 50% depth not breaking the critical level (the terminus of wave 1 of (3) of [C]) and guideline of alternation.
The area of projected values for the terminus of wave (3) of [C] should be specified only after wave 4 of (3) of [C] completes.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

In order that scenario v.3, considered in the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) and Monthly-0508, may confirm its right to exist the price has to complete the downward wave 5 of (3) in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle. It must do it as soon as possible as wave 4 has already entered the territory of wave 1 of (3).
Taking into consideration the depth of correction 4 of (3), the fact that the price is on the territory of wave 1 of (3) and upward impulsive direction of the price at the moment scenario 3-dt also considered in Monthly-0508 seems to be the most probable.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

In the framework of scenario 3-dt the upward correction may develop to the 111 mark in the form of a double or triple zigzag.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.



Figure Y4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dt.

Taking into consideration its sizes against the adjacent waves of the downtrend we may suppose that corrective wave [4] of the supposed diagonal triangle V is forming. This wave four may reach the 78% depth.
The area of projected values for the terminus of wave [5] of V should be specified only after wave [4] of V completes.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure G1.Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

In order the scenario with a horizontal triangle considered in the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) and Monthly-0508, confirm its right to exist the price has to complete the upward wave [d] of 4 in the form of a zigzag.
This variant isn’t cancelled and is quite possible. But from the point of view of price movement synchronism with the other currency pairs under consideration at the present the alternate scenario given below seems to be the most probable (Figure G2).

Figure G2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The entire downward correction 4 can be easily presented in the form of a developing large zigzag the first leg of which is impulse [a] of 4, while the second leg is a complicated diagonal triangle [c] of 4 ([c] = ~ [a] * 0.618), demonstrating guideline of alternation for zigzags.
As wave three of the diagonal triangle (iii) of [c] of 4 is shorter than its first wave (i) of [c] of 4, it is easy to determine the critical level for its wave (v) of [c] of 4 — 1.9188, which is the critical level both for the diagonal triangle and for the whole supposed zigzag 4.
Besides until wave (v) of [c] of 4 completes forming the terminus of wave (ii) of [c] of 4 is also the critical level for this diagonal triangle.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure E1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

In order scenario v.3, considered in the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and Monthly-0508, confirm its right to exist the price has to complete the upward wave (v) of [v] in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle.
Taking into consideration the depth of correction ii of (v) of [v], proximity of the critical level and downward impulsive direction of the price at the present the alternate scenario also considered in the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) seems to be the most probable..

Figure E2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of scenario 3-a the downward correction may develop to the 1.50 mark in the form of a single zigzag.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.



Figure E4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-a.

Taking into consideration its sizes relative to the adjacent waves of the upward impulse we may suppose that corrective wave 4 of (3) of [C] is forming. This wave four may reach 38% depth without breaking the critical level (the terminus of wave 1 of (3) of [C]) and guideline of alternation.
Projected values for the terminus of wave (3) of [C] should be specified only after wave 4 of (3) of [C] completes.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory




Introduction
In this forecast two main scenarios are considered, one of which supposes in August 2008 the continuation of the dollar’s strengthening in the form of the wave correction that has been developing since the second half of March. At the moment this scenario seems to be the most probable.
The details of possible scenarios of reversal are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
May 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:01 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:06 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure C1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The current wave counting allows the supposition that the fourth wave 4 of the global downward impulse [C] may be completed (refer to the survey Figure C4 below). The fact that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its key interest rates unchanged at the low level may serve as an additional factor of the dollar’s negative appeal and its continuous decline (the decline of USD/CHF).
Please note that the high of the supposed wave [y] failed to overcome the level of the terminus of wave [w]. It may speak both of the strength of the expected downward movement and of the incompleteness of corrective wave 4. As the confirmatory levels for this scenario haven’t been passed by the price yet the alternate variant has the equal right to exist (refer to Figures below).

Figure C2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

In the framework of the alternate variant the upward correction 4 continues to develop in the form of a zigzag construction and may cross 1.06 at least.
As the whole wave construction that has been developing since the beginning of May so far looks like an extended correction at the moment the alternate scenario seems to me the most attractive.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.



Figure C4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-a.

The supposed four 4 of impulse [C] without breaking the critical level (the ending of wave 1 of (3) of [C]) and guideline of alternation may continue upward development and reach 50% of the depth.
The area of the projected values for the terminus of wave (3) of [C] should be specified only after the completion of wave 4 of (3) of [C].
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

The current wave counting allows that the fourth wave [4] of the global downward diagonal triangle V may be completed (refer to the survey Figure Y3 below). The fact that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its key interest rates unchanged at the low level may serve as an additional factor of the dollar’s negative appeal and its continuous decline (the decline of USD/JPY).
But so far the price has failed both to pass the confirmatory levels and to break the lower border of the upward trend channel. Besides, taking into consideration the simultaneity of price movement of the other dollar pairs the alternate scenario seems to be the most probable (refer to Figures below).

Figure Y2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

In the framework of the alternate variant the upward correction [4] continues forming in the form of a zigzag construction and may cross 110 at least.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.

Taking into consideration the relative sizes of correction [4]? it isn’t ruled out that these are the first and not the ending waves of downward diagonal triangle V (i.e. waves [1] and [2], refer to the alternate at the bottom of the chart and Figure Y4 below), wave [1] of V of which assumed the shape of double zigzag.

Figure Y4. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3-dt.

Taking into consideration the expected depth of the decline of USD/JPY (ideally below 80), the variant with the first wave [1] of V in the form of a double zigzag and a developing at the moment wave [2] of V seems to be quite real.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure G1.Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3.

Three consecutive and intercrossing upward impulses that have formed since the first half of June may prove to be wedge of 5, sequence of waves 1-2, 1-2 or a part of developing wave [d] of 4.
If the supposed upward wedge of 5 doesn’t transform into a double (or triple zigzag) we may say with certainty that wave 4 in the form of a horizontal triangle is completed. The fact that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its key interest rates unchanged at the low level may serve as an additional factor of the dollar’s negative appeal and its continuous decline (the rise of GBP/USD).

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

If the supposition about the completion of the horizontal triangle 4 is true after the retracement of the price to ~ 1.96 (corrective wave [ii] of 5) it is natural to expect further forming of upward wave 5 in the form of an impulse or a diagonal triangle.
Otherwise further development of the ending waves of extended correction 4.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure E1.Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-a.

The wave counting allows the supposition that the fourth wave 4 of the global upward impulse [C] may be completed (refer to the survey Figure E4 below). The fact that the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its key interest rates unchanged at the low level may serve as an additional factor of the dollar’s negative appeal and its continuous decline (the rise of EUR/USD).
But note that the top of the supposed wave [z] failed to overcome the level of the terminus of wave [y]. It may speak both of the strength of the expected upward movement and of incompleteness of corrective wave 4. As the confirmatory level for this scenario haven’t been passed by the price yet the alternate variant has the same right to exist (refer to Figures below).

Figure E2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Probable alternate.

In the framework of the alternate variant almost horizontal correction 4 continues developing in the form of a zigzag construction and may cross 1.53 at least.
As the whole wave construction that has been developing since the beginning of May so far looks like a single extended correction [xx] the alternate variant seems to me more attractive at the moment.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.



Figure E4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-a.

The supposed four 4 of impulse [C], without breaking the critical level (the ending of wave 1 of (3) of [C]) and guideline of alternation may continue downward development and reach the depth of 38% or 50%.
The areas of projected values for the ending of wave (3) of [C] should be specified only after the completion of wave 4 of (3) of [C].
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




Introduction
Unfortunately June didn’t make the wave counting on the bigger time-frames clear. Practically the same scenarios that were considered a month ago are actual now. But it isn’t ruled out that the correction that has been forming since the second half of March hasn’t completed yet. At the moment this variant seems to me the most probable.
The details of possible scenarios are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
June 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:04 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:08 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure C1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented as an upward double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y], the wave-link [x] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
If the supposition about the shape of wave 4 is true its terminus may be expected in the range of 1.06..1.11. The area of projected values for wave 4 should be specified after the completion of the supposed wave (b) of [y] of 4.
Very important confirmatory levels are 1.0538 (the terminus of wave (b) of [x] of 4) and 1.0621 (the terminus of wave [w] of 4), the critical level is 1.0011 (the terminus of wave [x] of 4).
The point is that the supposed wave [x] of 4 of the current scenario has the shape of an ordinary zigzag (5-3-5), which in the framework of alternate scenarios can be interpreted either as a forming downward wedge (Figure C2), or as the first wave of a downward diagonal triangle (Figure C3).

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of alternate scenarios upward correction 4 is completed in the form of an ordinary zigzag. According to an alternate scenario wave 5 is assuming the shape of a downward impulse with wave of 5 in the form of a forming wedge.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

Another alternate doesn’t rule out that wave 5 is assuming the shape of a downward diagonal triangle the first wave of 5 of which has formed already.
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3-dt.

Taking into consideration the depth of the price decline after the supposed horizontal triangle IV, we may suggest that so far only the development of the first wave [1] of downward diagonal triangle V has completed. At the moment supposedly correction [2] of V is developing.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

In the framework of the accepted scenario upward correction [2] continues developing in the form of a triple zigzag and can reach the 110 mark. The area of projected values should be specified only after the completion of the supposed wave B of (Z) of [2].

Figure Y3. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Possible alternate.

The alternate variant of counting doesn’t rule out that wave [2] is completed in the form of a double zigzag and at the moment downward impulse (A) of [3] of V is developing.
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure G1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented as a contracting triangle wave [d] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
If the supposition about the shape of wave 4 is true its terminus may be expected in the range of 1.96..1.93. The area of projected values for the terminus of wave 4 should be specified after the completion of the supposed wave (b) of [e] of 4.
A very important confirmatory level is 1.9408 (the terminus of wave (b) of [d] of 4) the critical level is 2.0153 (the terminus of wave [d] of 4).
The point is that the supposed wave [d] of 4 of the current scenario has the shape of an ordinary zigzag (5-3-5), which in the framework of alternate scenarios can be interpreted either as a forming upward wedge (Figure G2), or as the first wave of an upward diagonal triangle (Figure G3).

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 1.

In the framework of alternate scenarios correction 4 is completed in the form of a double three. According to an alternate scenario wave 5 is assuming the shape of an upward impulse with wave of 5 in the form of forming wedge.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 2.

Another alternate doesn’t rule out that wave 5 is assuming the shape of upward diagonal triangle the first wave of 5 of which has already formed. The differences in the nature of the nearest price movement from the variant in Figure G1 lie in less aggressive price decline and the initial starting point of a new stage of the dollar’s decline (the rise of GBP/USD).
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented in the form of an expanding triangle wave [d] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
If the supposition of the shape of wave 4 is true its terminus may be expected in the area of 1.54..1.50. The are of projected values for the terminus of wave 4 should be specified only after the supposed wave (b) of [e] of 4 completes.
Very important confirmatory levels are 1.5302 (the terminus of wave (b) of [d] of 4) and 1.5284 (the terminus of wave [c] of 4), and the critical level is 1.6036 (the terminus of wave [d] of 4).
The point is that the supposed wave [d] of 4 of the current scenario has the shape of an ordinary zigzag (5-3-5), which in the framework of alternate scenarios may be interpreted either as a forming upward wedge (Figure E2), or as the first wave of upward diagonal triangle (Figure E3).

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 1.

In the framework of alternate scenarios correction 4 is completed in the form of an expanded flat. One of the alternate scenarios suggests that wave 5 is assuming the shape of an upward impulse with wave принимает форму восходящего импульса с волной of 5 в виде формирующегося клина.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 2.

Another alternate doesn’t rule that wave 5 is assuming the shape of an upward diagonal triangle the first wave of 5 of which has already formed. The differences in the nature of the nearest price movement from the variant in figure E1 lie in less aggressive price decline and the initial starting point of a new stage of the dollar’s decline (the rise of EUR/USD).
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory




Introduction
The US dollar's global decline has been temporarily broken by a large correction that has been forming for several months already. At the moment the actual question is to determine the point of its completion, to which this forecast is devoted.
The details of possible scenarios of further price movements are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:10 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:14 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure C1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented as an upward double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y], the wave-link [x] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
If the supposition about the shape of wave 4 is true its terminus may be expected in the range of 1.06..1.11. The area of projected values for wave 4 should be specified after the completion of the supposed wave (b) of [y] of 4.
Very important confirmatory levels are 1.0538 (the terminus of wave (b) of [x] of 4) and 1.0621 (the terminus of wave [w] of 4), the critical level is 1.0011 (the terminus of wave [x] of 4).
The point is that the supposed wave [x] of 4 of the current scenario has the shape of an ordinary zigzag (5-3-5), which in the framework of alternate scenarios can be interpreted either as a forming downward wedge (Figure C2), or as the first wave of a downward diagonal triangle (Figure C3).

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of alternate scenarios upward correction 4 is completed in the form of an ordinary zigzag. According to an alternate scenario wave 5 is assuming the shape of a downward impulse with wave of 5 in the form of a forming wedge.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

Another alternate doesn’t rule out that wave 5 is assuming the shape of a downward diagonal triangle the first wave of 5 of which has formed already.
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the monthly chart. Variant 3-dt.

Taking into consideration the depth of the price decline after the supposed horizontal triangle IV, we may suggest that so far only the development of the first wave [1] of downward diagonal triangle V has completed. At the moment supposedly correction [2] of V is developing.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3-dt.

In the framework of the accepted scenario upward correction [2] continues developing in the form of a triple zigzag and can reach the 110 mark. The area of projected values should be specified only after the completion of the supposed wave B of (Z) of [2].

Figure Y3. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Possible alternate.

The alternate variant of counting doesn’t rule out that wave [2] is completed in the form of a double zigzag and at the moment downward impulse (A) of [3] of V is developing.
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure G1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented as a contracting triangle wave [d] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
If the supposition about the shape of wave 4 is true its terminus may be expected in the range of 1.96..1.93. The area of projected values for the terminus of wave 4 should be specified after the completion of the supposed wave (b) of [e] of 4.
A very important confirmatory level is 1.9408 (the terminus of wave (b) of [d] of 4) the critical level is 2.0153 (the terminus of wave [d] of 4).
The point is that the supposed wave [d] of 4 of the current scenario has the shape of an ordinary zigzag (5-3-5), which in the framework of alternate scenarios can be interpreted either as a forming upward wedge (Figure G2), or as the first wave of an upward diagonal triangle (Figure G3).

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 1.

In the framework of alternate scenarios correction 4 is completed in the form of a double three. According to an alternate scenario wave 5 is assuming the shape of an upward impulse with wave of 5 in the form of forming wedge.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 2.

Another alternate doesn’t rule out that wave 5 is assuming the shape of upward diagonal triangle the first wave of 5 of which has already formed. The differences in the nature of the nearest price movement from the variant in Figure G1 lie in less aggressive price decline and the initial starting point of a new stage of the dollar’s decline (the rise of GBP/USD).
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008) and the article The review of the bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008).


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented in the form of an expanding triangle wave [d] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
If the supposition of the shape of wave 4 is true its terminus may be expected in the area of 1.54..1.50. The are of projected values for the terminus of wave 4 should be specified only after the supposed wave (b) of [e] of 4 completes.
Very important confirmatory levels are 1.5302 (the terminus of wave (b) of [d] of 4) and 1.5284 (the terminus of wave [c] of 4), and the critical level is 1.6036 (the terminus of wave [d] of 4).
The point is that the supposed wave [d] of 4 of the current scenario has the shape of an ordinary zigzag (5-3-5), which in the framework of alternate scenarios may be interpreted either as a forming upward wedge (Figure E2), or as the first wave of upward diagonal triangle (Figure E3).

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 1.

In the framework of alternate scenarios correction 4 is completed in the form of an expanded flat. One of the alternate scenarios suggests that wave 5 is assuming the shape of an upward impulse with wave принимает форму восходящего импульса с волной of 5 в виде формирующегося клина.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate 2.

Another alternate doesn’t rule that wave 5 is assuming the shape of an upward diagonal triangle the first wave of 5 of which has already formed. The differences in the nature of the nearest price movement from the variant in figure E1 lie in less aggressive price decline and the initial starting point of a new stage of the dollar’s decline (the rise of EUR/USD).
We have to wait for the confirmation of one or another scenario.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



Introduction
The US dollar's global decline has been temporarily broken by a large correction that has been forming for several months already. At the moment the actual question is to determine the point of its completion, to which this forecast is devoted.
The details of possible scenarios of further price movements are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
July 26, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:12 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:17 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008), the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) and the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-d half of 2008).


Figure C1.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 can be presented in the form of a double zigzag [w]-[x]-[y], wave-link [x] of 4 of which has assumed the shape of an ordinary zigzag (a)-(b)-(c).
It isn’t ruled out that zigzag [y] of 4 is completed, i.e. the whole supposed correction 4 is completed. If this is the case in September one should expect progressive decline of the US dollar (the decline of USD/CHF).
A weak point of this supposition is a disproportionately narrow zigzag [y] of 4, and also the fact that the confirmatory levels of the current scenario haven’t been passed by the price yet.
In this case the alternate variant of counting that allows further strengthening of the US dollar (the rise of USD/CHF; refer to Figure C2, below) remains actual.

Figure C2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of the alternate variant it isn’t ruled out that upward narrow trend since the middle of July (wave (a) of [y] of 4) is only a part of the developing zigzag [y] of 4. In this case in September one should expect a shallow downward or horizontal retracement (wave (b) of [y] of 4) and further continuation of the US dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/CHF in the form of wave (c) of [y] of 4).
There remains for us to expect the confirmation of one of scenarios.

Figure C3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.



Figure C4. Wave counting on the monthly chart.

The wave counting on the weekly and monthly charts hasn’t changed so far.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory



The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008), the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) and the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-d half of 2008).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction [2] can be presented in the form of upward triple zigzag [w]-[x]-[y]-[x]-[z].
It isn’t ruled out that zigzag (z) of [2] is completed, i.e. the whole supposed correction [2] is completed. If this is the case in September one should expect progressive decline of the US dollar (the decline of USD/JPY).
Unfortunately the confirmatory levels of the current scenario haven’t been passed by the price yet. That’s why in this case the alternate variant of counting that allows further strengthening of the US dollar (the rise of USD/JPY; refer to Figure Y2, below) remains actual.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of the alternate scenario it isn’t ruled out that upward narrow trend since the middle of July (wave A of (Y) of [2]) is only a part of the developing zigzag (Y) of [2]. In this case in September one should expect a shallow downward or horizontal retracement (wave B of (Y) of [2]) and further continuation of the US dollar’s strengthening (the rise of USD/JPY in the form of wave C of (Y) of [2]).
There remains for us to expect the confirmation of one of the scenarios.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.



Figure Y4. Wave counting on the monthly chart.

The wave counting on the weekly and monthly charts hasn’t changed so far.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008), the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) and the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-d half of 2008).


Figure G1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 2 may be presented in the form of an ordinary zigzag [a]--[c]. It isn’t ruled out that impulse [c] of 4 is completed, i.e. the whole supposed correction 2 is completed. If this is the case in September one should expect progressive decline of the US dollar (the rise of GBP/USD).
Unfortunately the confirmatory levels of the current scenario haven’t been passed by the price so far. That’s why in this case the alternate variant of counting that allows further strengthening of the US dollar (the decline of GBP/USD; refer to Figure G2, below) remains actual.

Figure G2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of the alternate variant it isn’t ruled out that downward narrow trend since the middle of July (waves (i)-(ii)-(iii) of [c] of 2) is only a part of the developing impulse [c] of 2. In this case in September one may expect a shallow upward or horizontal retracement (wave (iv) of [c] of 2) and further continuation of the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of GBP/USD in the form of wave (v) of [c] of 2).
There remains for us to expect the confirmation of one of the scenarios.

Figure G3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.



Figure G4. Wave counting on the monthly chart.

The wave counting on the weekly and monthly charts hasn’t changed yet.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (Annual Wave Analysis, 2008), the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (II quarter of 2008) and the article The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (2-d half of 2008).


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-a.

In the framework of the current scenario the whole correction 4 may be presented in the form of a flat [a]--[c]. It isn’t ruled out that impulse [c] of 4 is completed, i.e. the whole supposed correction 4 is completed. If this is the case in September one should expect considerable decline of the US dollar (the rise of EUR/USD).
Unfortunately the confirmatory levels of the current scenario haven’t been passed yet by the price. That’s why the alternate variant of counting that allows further strengthening of the US dollar (the decline of EUR/USD; refer to Figure E2, below) remains actual.

Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Possible alternate.

In the framework of the alternate variant it isn’t ruled out that the downward narrow trend since the middle of July (waves (i)-(ii)-(iii) of [c] of 4) is only a part of the developing impulse [c] of 4. In this case in September one may expect a shallow upward or horizontal retracement (wave (iv) of [c] of 4) and further continuation of the US dollar’s strengthening (the decline of EUR/USD in the form of wave (v) of [c] of 4).
There remains for us to expect the confirmation of one of the scenarios.

Figure E3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

The wave counting on the weekly chart hasn’t changes so far.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




Introduction
The global decline of the US dollar has been temporarily broken by a large correction that has been developing for several months. At the moment the actual problem is to determine the point of its completion to what this forecast is devoted.
Possible scenarios of further price movements are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
August 31, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:15 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:19 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008).

Figure C1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz.

According to scenario 3-dz the supposed correction [X] may be presented in the form of upward double zigzag W-X-Y of (A) of [X]. If this supposition is true at the moment possible variants of the completion of corrective wave of Y of (A), are of interest.

Figure C2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The supposed wave of Y may be assuming the shape of narrow downward double or triple zigzag (w)-(x)-(y)-(x)-(z) of . In this case the decline of the price continues in the borders of the trend channel and may reach the depth of 78 %.

Figure C3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

If the price fixes above the higher border of the current trend channel we may speak of the completion of wave of Y (marked in the chart with grey color), or of the further development of wave of Y in the form of some horizontal construction (a flat, a double three or an extended horizontal correction).

Figure C4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time a variant in the framework of which wave [X] is completed already, isn’t ruled out yet. But its relatively small depth and duration don’t allow bringing this scenario to forefront.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008).

Figure Y1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dt.

According to scenario 3-dt the supposed correction [2] may be presented in the form of upward zigzag (A)-(B)-(C) of [X]. If this supposition is true at the moment possible variants of the completion of corrective wave (B) of [2], given below, are of interest.

Figure Y2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The supposed wave (B) of [2] may be assuming the shape of downward triple zigzag W-X-Y-XX-Z of (B) of [2]. In this case the decline of the price will continue and may reach the 103 mark or lower. Only after that the local trend reversal upward should be expected.

Figure Y3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

Если же цена закрепится над верхней границей текущего трендового канала, то это может говорить о завершении волны (B) of [2] в виде двойного зигзага W-X-Y of (B). В этом случае новый восходящий тренд (волна (C) of [2]) может начаться с клина 1 of (C) of [2].

Figure Y4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time a variant in the framework of which wave [2] is completed already, isn’t ruled out yet. But synchronism of the expected price movement in the framework of the supposed scenarios in other dollar pairs doesn’t allow bringing it to the forefront.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008).

Figure G1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 1.

According to the scenario 1 the supposed ending wave (E) of [X] of the global horizontal triangle [X] may be presented in the form of downward double zigzag W-X-Y of (E) of [X]. If this supposition is true at the moment possible variant of the completion of corrective wave of Y of (E) of [X], given below, are of special interest.

Figure G2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The supposed wave of Y may be assuming the shape of narrow double or triple zigzag (w)-(x)-(y)-(x)-(z) of . In this case the rise of price will continue in the borders of the trend channel and may reach the depth of 78%.

Figure G3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

If the price fixes under the lower border of the current trend channel we may speak either of the completion of wave of Y (marked in the chart with grey color), or of the further development of wave of Y in the form of some horizontal construction (flat, double three or an extended horizontal correction).

Figure G4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time a variant according to which wave [X] is completed already, isn’t ruled out yet. But synchronism of the expected price movement in the framework of the supposed scenarios in the other dollar pairs doesn’t allow bringing it to the forefront.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to The Review of the Bigger Time-Frames (IV quarter of 2008).

Figure E1. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dz.

In the framework of scenario 3-dz the supposed correction [X] may be presented in the form of downward zigzag A-B-C of (A) of [X]. If this is the case at the moment possible variants of the completion of corrective wave B of (A), given below, are of special interest.

Figure E2. Wave counting on 480 min chart.

The supposed wave B of (A) may be assuming the shape of narrow upward double or triple zigzag [w]-[x]-[y]-[x]-[z] of B. In this case the rise of price will continue in the borders of the trend channel and may reach the depth of 78%.

Figure E3. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.

If the price fixes under the lower border of the current trend channel we may speak either of the completion of wave B of (A) (it is marked in the chart with grey), or of the further development of wave B of (A) in the form of a horizontal construction (flat, double three or an extended horizontal correction).

Figure E4. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Possible alternate.

At the same time a variant in the framework of which wave [X] is completed already, isn’t ruled out. But its relatively small depth and duration don’t allow bringing this scenario to the forefront.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




Introduction
The global US dollar’s decline is temporarily broken by a large correction which has been developing for several months already. At the moment an actual question is to determine the point of its terminus to which this forecast was devoted.
Possible scenarios of further price movements are considered in the corresponding sections.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
September 28, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:30 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:21 | 显示全部楼层
The current wave counting
For the survey wave counting of CHF refer to the article Possible Depth of the Decline (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF).


Figure C1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dz.



Figure C2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In the framework of scenario 3-dz the supposed correction [X] may be presented in the form of an upward double or triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z of (A) of [X].
If this supposition is true the confirmation of completion of wave (Y) of [X] and the development of downward (or horizontal) correction (X) of [X] should be expected in November.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current wave counting
For the survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article Possible Depth of the Decline (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF).


Figure Y1. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Variant 3-dt.



Figure Y2. Wave counting on 480 min chart. Possible alternate.



Figure Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In the framework of scenario 3-dt the ending zigzag [5] of a large downward diagonal triangle V continues developing.
If the price fixes above the upper border of the channel of impulse (A) of [5] of V it will mean its completion and development of the supposed correction (B) of [5] of V with further downward reversal of the price.
Otherwise the decline of the price will continues until the completion of impulse (A) of [5] of V, and only after its completion upward or horizontal correction (B) of [5] of V will start developing.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current wave counting
For the survey wave counting of GBP refer to the article Possible Depth of the Decline (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF).


Figure G1. Wave couning on 720 min chart. Variant 1.



Figure G2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In the framework of scenario 1 the supposed ending wave (E) of [X] of the global horizontal triangle [X] may be presented in the form of a downward double or triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z of (E) of [X].
If this supposition is true the confirmation of the completion of wave Y of (E) of [X] and the development of upward (or horizontal) correction X of (E) of [X] should be expected in November.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory




The current wave counting
For the survey wave counting of EUR refer to Possible Depth of the Decline (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF).


Figure E1. Wave counting on 720 min chart. Variant 3dz.



Figure E2. Wave counting on the weekly chart.

In the framework of scenario 3-dz the supposed correction [X] may be represented in the form of a downward double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y) of [X].
If this supposition is true the confirmation of the completion of wave (W) of [X] and the development of upward (or horizontal) correction (X) of [X] may be expected in November.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.



Introduction
Supposedly the strengthening of the US dollar that has been lasting for several months hasn’t completed yet. Possible variants of the continuation of this strengthening were considered in the corresponding sections of this forecast.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 2, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:32 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

hefeiddd
 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-22 17:23 | 显示全部楼层
The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of CHF refer to the article Possible Depth of the Decline .


Figure C1.Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dz.



Figure 1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dz.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dz an upward zigzag structure is developing. If the supposition is true the weakening of the US dollar (the decline of USD/CHF) should be expected in the near term.
Which of the variants given in the forecast the price will chooses depends on the depth of the expected price decline.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of JPY refer to the article Possible Depth of the Decline .


Figure Y1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.



Figure Y2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dt.



Figure Y3. Wave counting on the weekly chart. Variant 3-dt.

In the framework of scenario 3-dt the ending zigzag [5] of a large downward diagonal triangle V continues developing. If the supposition about wave structure on the small time-frames is true the weakening of USD (the decline of USD/JPY) should be expected in the near term.
Which of the variants given in the forecast the price will choose will depend on the depth of the expected decline.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.





The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of GBP refer to the article Possible Depth of the Decline .








Supposedly in the framework of scenario 1 a downward zigzag structure is developing. If this is the case the weakening of USD (the rise of GBP/USD) should be expected in the near term.
Which of the variants given in the forecast the price will choose depends on the height of the expected price rise.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




The current variant of the wave counting
For survey wave counting of EUR refer to the article Possible Depth of the Decline .


Figure E1. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dz.



Figure E2. Wave counting on the daily chart. Variant 3-dz.

Supposedly in the framework of scenario 3-dz a downward zigzag structure is developing. If the supposition is true the wakening of USD should be expected in the near term (the rise of EUR/USD).
Which of the variants given in the forecast the price will choose depends on the height of the expected price rise.
For more detailed wave counting on smaller time-frames and parameters of possible trading plans refer to daily reports.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.




Supposedly the US dollar’s strengthening that has been lasting for several months hasn’t completed yet. Possible variant of the continuation of this strengthening were considered in the corresponding sections of this forecast.
Reference
Dmitry Voznuy
forDmitry@yahoo.com
November 30, 2008
When using any part of the article for publication or analytical materials reference to the author and Alpari is obligatory.

[ 本帖最后由 hefeiddd 于 2009-4-29 07:33 编辑 ]

本帖子中包含更多资源

您需要 登录 才可以下载或查看，没有帐号？立即注册

x
金币:
奖励:
热心:
注册时间:
2006-7-3

回复 使用道具 举报

1 ...1753175417551756175717581759... 1982下一页
返回列表 发新帖
高级模式
B Color Image Link Quote Code Smilies
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

本站声明：MACD仅提供交流平台，请交流人员遵守法律法规。
值班电话：18209240771 　 微信：35550268

举报|意见反馈|手机版|MACD俱乐部

GMT+8, 2025-11-11 11:12 , Processed in 0.225586 second(s), 8 queries , MemCached On.

Powered by Discuz! X3.4

© 2001-2017 Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表